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Old 04-27-2012, 04:38 AM    (permalink
Caulibflower
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Default Who'd Have Thought - 3 RB's in 1st Round?

With all the talk of the value of running backs diminishing, we just saw three go in the first. Granted, two were at the very end. I suppose I'm thinking about how the position is changing and how people measure the value of the position against other positions. Tampa Bay traded up when they already have a decent starter. I like Doug Martin a lot, but I suspect some people think the Buccaneers gave up more than they ought've. But is a running back only worth a first round pick if he's going to carry the load?

I think we seem to hear that a lot lately. Wide receivers don't "carry the load;" you hope they can make 5 catches and have an explosive play or two a game lining up on the outside. Running backs will always be the position that lines up in the backfield, and it's integral to the game. So I think perhaps we've just seen some weaker running back classes lately. You're still talking about the offensive position that gets the most touches per game, besides the quarterback - there's still going to be demand for those players and competition in the draft to get better at the position.
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Old 04-27-2012, 04:42 AM    (permalink
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With all the talk of the value of running backs diminishing, we just saw three go in the first. Granted, two were at the very end. I suppose I'm thinking about how the position is changing and how people measure the value of the position against other positions. Tampa Bay traded up when they already have a decent starter. I like Doug Martin a lot, but I suspect some people think the Buccaneers gave up more than they ought've. But is a running back only worth a first round pick if he's going to carry the load?

I think we seem to hear that a lot lately. Wide receivers don't "carry the load;" you hope they can make 5 catches and have an explosive play or two a game lining up on the outside. Running backs will always be the position that lines up in the backfield, and it's integral to the game. So I think perhaps we've just seen some weaker running back classes lately. You're still talking about the offensive position that gets the most touches per game, besides the quarterback - there's still going to be demand for those players and competition in the draft to get better at the position.
They moved down like 20ish spots in the 4TH round to land him... How is that 'more than they ought've'? We have Blount sure, but every single Buc fan will tell you RB was one of our top 3-4 needs heading into the draft. Blount is absolute not great on 3rd downs.

I'm not surprised that Martin and Wilson went in the first. Both have been mocked in the late first by a number of analysts.
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Old 04-27-2012, 04:51 AM    (permalink
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They moved down like 20ish spots in the 4TH round to land him... How is that 'more than they ought've'?
I don't think it is. I have some friends who are Bucs fans who weren't ecstatic about it. I was telling them they scored.

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We have Blount sure, but every single Buc fan will tell you RB was one of our top 3-4 needs heading into the draft. Blount is absolute not great on 3rd downs.

I'm not surprised that Martin and Wilson went in the first. Both have been mocked in the late first by a number of analysts.
I'm with you. I'm not posting because I think they went higher than they should have, but because I'm thinking about how running back is becoming more of a platoon position along the lines of the receiver group, and how that affects their value in the draft - if in years to come we still might see drafts where several running backs go high in the first round, even if the typical demands of the position are more along the lines of 12-15 carries and a few catches a game. You still want the player who gets all those touches to be a really good player, and as a unique positional skillset, there's still going to be competition among teams to land the best players available in the draft.
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Old 04-27-2012, 07:02 AM    (permalink
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I kinda think the Giants panicked after the Bucs traded ahead of them for Martin
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Old 04-27-2012, 07:06 AM    (permalink
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I kinda think the Giants panicked after the Bucs traded ahead of them for Martin
Yup yup. I'm not sure about their backfield situation though, but I'm surprised they didn't snatch Fleener.
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Old 04-27-2012, 07:59 AM    (permalink
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I personally like Lamar Miller a lot more, but I think Wilson can be solid in a multi-back system. I don't see him as an elite every down back, but at 32 you can justify this type of pick for the Giants.

I'm also surprised that they didn't go with Fleener, though.

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Old 04-27-2012, 08:21 AM    (permalink
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First off, let's not pretend they went 3, 4 and 5. Two went with the final picks in the round.

I continue to be an advocate of not taking RBs high in the first round. The drop off between guys available there and who will be available later is not nearly as steep as it is with other positions.

Additionally, the trend of RBs devaluing is there, like it or not. Our last 3 Superbowl champions employed a RB by committee approach, as have 5 of the last 6 overall Superbowl participants.

What else have those 6 had in common? Elite QBs. Every. Single. One.

In this day and age, you prioritize QB first and foremost. If you do take a RB high with the intent on acquiring a franchise caliber QB down the road, then fine. That RB could be a great weapon for that potential franchise QB to have in the offense.

BUT, if you're going to try and create a running based team with a mediocre QB like I think the Browns are about to try and do, you're damning yourself to failure. Occasionally, there will be a team that gets pretty far using a running first approach, but they are in the vast minority of cases and, like I said previously, NONE of the last 6 Superbowl participating teams used that approach.

RB is and will continue to be a devalued position as the best teams invest their high picks in other components of the team while finding competent runners later on. (VERY end of the first on.)
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Old 04-27-2012, 09:10 AM    (permalink
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I kinda think the Giants panicked after the Bucs traded ahead of them for Martin
Wilson was our 2nd highest rated RB and Jerry Reese does not panic. Ever.
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Old 04-27-2012, 09:12 AM    (permalink
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Wilson was our 2nd highest rated RB and Jerry Reese does not panic. Ever.
I think they did. I think the pick should have been Cordy Glenn. I'm a big Giants fan (as a secondary team to the Lions), and I just didn't see the value for Wilson right there. It was a reach, to say the least.
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Old 04-27-2012, 09:15 AM    (permalink
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I think they did. I think the pick should have been Cordy Glenn. I'm a big Giants fan (as a secondary team to the Lions), and I just didn't see the value for Wilson right there. It was a reach, to say the least.
I didn't really like it considering who else was on the board but I don't think it's that big of a reach if we had him rated that high. We always stick to our board and believe me that war room doesn't panic.
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Old 04-27-2012, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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I didn't really like it considering who else was on the board but I don't think it's that big of a reach if we had him rated that high. We always stick to our board and believe me that war room doesn't panic.
Maybe so, but I just feel like they could've done themselves a big favor by taking Glenn. But who knows? It's not to late for them to salvage that pick. There are a lot of really good OT prospects still available in round two. Maybe they'll show interest in moving up and going after a guy like Glenn, Adams, or Martin?
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Old 04-27-2012, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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Maybe so, but I just feel like they could've done themselves a big favor by taking Glenn. But who knows? It's not to late for them to salvage that pick. There are a lot of really good OT prospects still available in round two. Maybe they'll show interest in moving up and going after a guy like Glenn, Adams, or Martin?
I'm hoping for Glenn but most likely we stay put and hope Massie falls down to us.
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Old 04-27-2012, 09:53 AM    (permalink
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As far as Fleener going to the Giants goes, there had been speculation the G-Men wouldn't take him because his blocking just isn't there right now. And I wouldn't be surprised if he slides to the middle of the 2nd or later because of just that.

I am not surprised Tampa traded up for a back, I think after losing out on T-Rich they wanted to assure they got the next highest ranked back on their board. I had them jumping the G-Men back in early March for Wilson and for Martin in a mock a few days ago.

I am not surprised the Giants went RB early, and I had seen quite a few mockers go that route, only to be told by Giants fans that they wouldn't take a back that high. With Bradshaw's foot problems, it only made sense to grab another good back, and I love that this is like taking Tiki Barber 2.0. Drafted in similar spots (32 and 36), both similar in size, both from a Virginia college, both coming to the NFL with fumbilitis....
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Old 04-27-2012, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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Hopefully this ups Matt Fortes value. Come on RB needy teams, lets pick up the phone!
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Old 04-27-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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Hopefully Denver lands Lamar Miller. He's an ideal fit there.
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Old 04-27-2012, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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Lamar Miller would be great in Denver... If I'm Denver though, I'm adding Randle, Fleener, or Hill with their first pick in the second round. And if Miller drops to pick 57, I'm ecstatic and snatching him up, all while being on the phone trying to get a fifth or sixth rounder for Moreno.

These would be ideal for the running backs I believe will be selected today:

Miller to Denver
James to Green Bay
Pead to Seattle
Polk to St. Louis
Turbin to Baltimore
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Old 04-27-2012, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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Running the ball still accounts for 30-35% of a team's offense and in the case of Cleveland, Tampa Bay and New York, it is even a higher %. Sure, you can wait but it is a huge gamble when a RB you really like is just sitting there for the taking. I thought all along that possibly 3 would go round 1 especially since once you got past say the 22 nd pick of round 1, you are looking at 2nd round talent anyways so why not take a 1st round talented RB.
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Old 04-27-2012, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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Lamar Miller would be great in Denver... If I'm Denver though, I'm adding Randle, Fleener, or Hill with their first pick in the second round. And if Miller drops to pick 57, I'm ecstatic and snatching him up, all while being on the phone trying to get a fifth or sixth rounder for Moreno.

These would be ideal for the running backs I believe will be selected today:

Miller to Denver
James to Green Bay
Pead to Seattle
Polk to St. Louis
Turbin to Baltimore
Miller is seriously injured which is why he is dropping in the predictions. I cannot see him going before round 3.
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Old 04-30-2012, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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I view Martin and Wilson as teams wanting to get a head start on 2nd round RB's more than teams finding a renewed value in 1st round RB's.
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Old 04-30-2012, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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I view Martin and Wilson as teams wanting to get a head start on 2nd round RB's more than teams finding a renewed value in 1st round RB's.
This is part of my thinking as well. Additionally, the Bucs traded up for Martin after getting Barron, so RB was their 2nd pick of the draft.

The Giants too ended up getting Reuben Randle who they called a "first round talent." If true, I think they had a (correct) feeling that he'd be more likely to last to their 2nd rounder than a solid RB like Wilson.
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Old 04-30-2012, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080 View Post
Wilson was our 2nd highest rated RB and Jerry Reese does not panic. Ever.
I'm with you on this one! The G Men just do what they want and don't worry about anyone else.

Also the Wilson pick was about becoming more explosive out of the backfield which now the G Men are.
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Old 04-30-2012, 01:58 PM    (permalink
BamaFalcon59
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Yup yup. I'm not sure about their backfield situation though, but I'm surprised they didn't snatch Fleener.
Giants had Wilson as their number two RB.

NFL teams like VT runningbacks. 'Zona unexpectedly took Ryan Williams (superior to David Wilson, IMVHO...) with a second round pick last year, not because of need but because they had him as their seventeenth best player in the draft.
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Old 04-30-2012, 02:13 PM    (permalink
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It was interesting for me because I figured there was maybe a 50% chance of one of David Wilson OR Doug Martin sneaking into the first. In saying that I always struggled to marry them up to a team in mocks because I guessed teams like Denver, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and the Giants would go elsewhere.



Also about the value of RB's, second straight year a team has traded up into the late first to land a RB who is capable of carrying the load. Not just spent a first but a trade up.
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Old 04-30-2012, 02:15 PM    (permalink
BeerBaron
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Trade compensation was waaaaaay down this year though. The Bucs gave up what...a 5th to move back into the first round?

Even the Browns only gave up a 4th, 5th and 7th to swap places. Pennies compared to what it would have taken in years past, and the Browns still had a lot of picks to work with.
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Old 04-30-2012, 02:21 PM    (permalink
PossibleCabbage
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Also about the value of RB's, second straight year a team has traded up into the late first to land a RB who is capable of carrying the load. Not just spent a first but a trade up.
A certain amount of this has to to with the shape of the draft. Generally, the people picking in the top few picks of the second round are the teams that picked in the top few picks of the first round, which is to say: teams that don't have high end QBs.

A running back (also a wide receiver) matters a lot more to a team without a high end QB, since you have to do something on offense, and taking a good offensive skill player more productive than hoping that Colt McCoy magically becomes Aaron Rodgers. So if you want a running back, there's no guarantee that one will get past the teams picking in the top bit of the second, so trading up into the first is a rational decision.

There's also something to be said about how cheap trading up was this year. It cost Tampa a fourth round pick to move up for Doug Martin. I think it's probably even cheaper to move up into the late first than it is to move up in to the high second.
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