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Old 07-05-2012, 12:37 PM    (permalink
Brothgar
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Originally Posted by broth223 View Post
I would like to reiterate what I said in the first post I did forget to multiply by 100 to create percentages so if you have .xyz the actual percentage is xy.z%

**** Math fail fixed
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:40 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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**** Math fail fixed
I actually figured it was that haha. My percentage was pretty much non existent.
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:41 PM    (permalink
Brothgar
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
Damn it broth! I want to do some wizard math for everyone!
If your theory is what I think it is. You could ideally pose such a theory in the form of fractions.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:49 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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Alright, based on my #s, my odds of being:

A Seer: 1 in 12 (about)

Werewolf: 4 in 12

Those are the "normal" percentages for a mafia game. A quarter of the players are mafia and in a game this small, 1 would be a cop/seer.

Makes me think I am on the "normal" curve that most people are on.
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:53 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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I certainly do not have a 1 in 3 chance of being a werewolf though. My number is a good deal lower than that and my seer number is slightly higher. I think you assumed too much sir.
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
I certainly do not have a 1 in 3 chance of being a werewolf though. My number is a good deal lower than that and my seer number is slightly higher. I think you assumed too much sir.

1 in 4 chance, I did the math wrong.

It is actually:

3 in 12 for werewolf

1 in 12 for seer


Do that math, should be your percentages. It would easier if I could just post the percentages :P
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:58 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
1 in 4 chance, I did the math wrong.

It is actually:

3 in 12 for werewolf

1 in 12 for seer


Do that math, should be your percentages. It would easier if I could just post the percentages :P
Well it would since you are essentially just doing that. Are you so sure we all have the same percentages though?
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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Well it would since you are essentially just doing that. Are you so sure we all have the same percentages though?
My thought is that we do, or at least pretty close. Perhaps broth made like 1 person more likely as a seer and 1 more likely as a werewolf, but I can't imagine it is TOO different or the numbers would be a lot more crazy than mine are.

Do you still claim your numbers are different than mine?
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
My thought is that we do, or at least pretty close. Perhaps broth made like 1 person more likely as a seer and 1 more likely as a werewolf, but I can't imagine it is TOO different or the numbers would be a lot more crazy than mine are.

Do you still claim your numbers are different than mine?
Well I wasn't going to claim but **** it. 1 in 6 for both.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:04 PM    (permalink
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Well I wasn't going to claim but **** it. 1 in 6 for both.
Hmmm, I don't see why you'd exactly admit that.

Unvote: No Lynch

Vote: Gonzo
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:05 PM    (permalink
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You are now going to be killed by werewolves tonight or be one yourself. If you have more a chance at a Seer, why admit that at this point? Something doesn't add up. I'd rather kill you BEFORE the Seer is "chosen" than have you be the Seer and die.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:06 PM    (permalink
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That is what I found so funny about you numbers. Now that you clarified it makes more sense. I think you are average just going off my numbers and yours. It would seem that some people have a slightly higher chance of being werewolf and lower of being seer than you. Probably one or two people like myself as well.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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You are now going to be killed by werewolves tonight or be one yourself. If you have more a chance at a Seer, why admit that at this point? Something doesn't add up. I'd rather kill you BEFORE the Seer is "chosen" than have you be the Seer and die.
Well like I said I am not the only one with these high numbers. If I had to guess there are three groups and you are in the middle. Or I could be lying. Either way I think there has to be a twist of some sort. It would make no sense to set it up so that nobody will be talking expect to say I am not a seer and I am not a werewolf.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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Well like I said I am not the only one with these high numbers. If I had to guess there are three groups and you are in the middle. Or I could be lying. Either way I think there has to be a twist of some sort. It would make no sense to set it up so that nobody will be talking expect to say I am not a seer and I am not a werewolf.
What do you mean? Either way, you are dead. Today or Tonight. I don't know why anyone would pick anyone except you at this point to try and kill.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:16 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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What do you mean? Either way, you are dead. Today or Tonight. I don't know why anyone would pick anyone except you at this point to try and kill.
If this game were set up simply based on percentages but set up so that there are only two roles and only one person who gets to be seer what do you expect the conversation during the day to look like? There would not be any conversation. Nobody would say anything. This is why I think there are a bunch of twists (I played in Broths last game and there were a ton).

For one it does not make sense to take me out based on the fact that I have a better chance of being a seer than you. 1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight. If I am targeted by everyone like you say that means the chance of everyone but me dying goes to zero. So why take me out now? I have a feeling you are lying about something.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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I still don't really know how this game is going to work out, which is why I'm still going RR. Normally I prefer no lynch, but the RR in this game really will help everyone(minus the loser) figure out how this game is setup.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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Unlynch, Vote Gonzo

1 in 6 is higher than the usual
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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Unlynch, Vote Gonzo

1 in 6 is higher than the usual
?????

Higher for seer, lower for werewolf...
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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yes higher for seer. he said:
"1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight."
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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yes higher for seer. he said:
"1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight."
It's one in 6 bud. To me that is a very low chance.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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Vote Count:
RR: (6) Gonzo, Ngata, CJ, SBH, Cigaro, IBC
Gonzo:(3) Snicho, Renji Shane
IBC: (1) Fenikz


With 12 people alive 7 people are needed to reach majority
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
It's one in 6 bud. To me that is a very low chance.
its pretty high compared to the normal amount
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:34 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang View Post
its pretty high compared to the normal amount
What is the normal amount. Shane's? Are we sure on that?

Right now you are trying to take away a target for the werewolves. How does that makes sense? Ya good call, make it easier for them.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:43 PM    (permalink
Gay Ork Wang
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Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Gay Ork Wang is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo View Post
What is the normal amount. Shane's? Are we sure on that?

Right now you are trying to take away a target for the werewolves. How does that makes sense? Ya good call, make it easier for them.
i think you are lying. no reason to come out and say you have a higher chance to be a seer.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:49 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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If this game were set up simply based on percentages but set up so that there are only two roles and only one person who gets to be seer what do you expect the conversation during the day to look like? There would not be any conversation. Nobody would say anything. This is why I think there are a bunch of twists (I played in Broths last game and there were a ton).

For one it does not make sense to take me out based on the fact that I have a better chance of being a seer than you. 1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight. If I am targeted by everyone like you say that means the chance of everyone but me dying goes to zero. So why take me out now? I have a feeling you are lying about something.
There are some Mafia games with NO night powers. The day conversation would be based on people's perceptions.
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