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Old 07-09-2012, 02:45 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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Originally Posted by DeepThreat View Post
I don't think you would be this adamant over something if you were evil. You would be more likely to sort of fade off like Cigaro did.

And you still haven't given a reason as to why I'm evil. You say my arguments were flawed while not pointing out how they were flawed.
Because they have already been stated by Cig. I have already said it and posting from my phone so quoting is a ***** but you seem to be pushing hard for a lynch while wanting others to do your dirty work. Something I would do if I were evil.
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Old 07-09-2012, 02:47 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DeepThreat View Post
I don't think you would be this adamant over something if you were evil. You would be more likely to sort of fade off like Cigaro did.

And you still haven't given a reason as to why I'm evil. You say my arguments were flawed while not pointing out how they were flawed.
Fade off about what? You didn't respond to my post. Am I supposed to argue with myself?
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Old 07-09-2012, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (4) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, Forenci
Deep (1) - Gonzo

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.
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Old 07-09-2012, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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Updated post counts!

Dr. Gonzo 31 - gosh what a surprise
jrdrylie 18
DeepThreat 15
Cigaro 14
killxswitch 11
*** Ork Wang 10
Brodeur 8
CJSchneider 8
ATLDirtyBirds 6
RufusMcDaniel 6
Forenci 2
sbh15 2
Bulldogs 2
Caddy 2
broth223 2
SuperMcgee 2
TitanHope 1
Snicho 1

Non-posters so far are D-Unit, Shane, and CMD.

It was widely publicized when the game would start, so if there are any non-posters when we get close to the end of the day I think we should get rid of them. No excuse for not posting. Inactives are a detriment to the game especially later on.

If everyone posts and no new info comes out I am in favor of a no-lynch. After the back-and-forth about whether that is a viable strategy JR did the research and showed proof that it is not always a bad idea at all. If anything I think we should look closely at those that strongly believe a no-lynch is bad. Which so far is Brody (give him a break it's his birthday), Deep, and ATL.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
Okay, I went back and looked at the older games and her'e is what I found out.

....
Awesome job, JR.

This isn't related to the game, but Gonzo, you always have high post counts because you argue so much LOL.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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Unfortunate timing. I'm on pins and needles following the Dwight Howard fiasco like a maniac on another Magic forum.

Sooo... I'm good this time. Take it for what it is. Willing to follow sound logic if any exists. If none, I'll go for a no lynch. The town has won many a times with a no lynch on day 1.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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OK so here's what I gathered from the first seven pages.

1. Gonzo being gonzo again. Throwing **** around seeing what sticks.
2. On the no-lynch / lynch debate it isn't a game changing move one way or another. The reason why more veteran players go against the no-lynch is because back in the day it was automatic. No conversation no anything just quick no-lynch and that would be completely useless. Getting people to talk then no lynch is a viable strategy but as of right now I'm not going to vote for it.
3. Post counting this early in the game isn't telling of anything IMO. Its still day 1 sometimes people have **** to do. Post counts at this point aren't as telling as they are later.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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hey guys I actually read every post to catch up this game! based on the statistic JDR brought up, we can pretty easily see why a random lynch is an unattractive option. I generally agree that picking a random player to lynch is a dumb idea because of the low odds of finding a mafia player.

even without past evidence, it's still quite simple. in every game the town has significantly larger numbers than the mafia. basic probability dictates we end up lynching a good guy.

so unless someone comes up with something ground breaking

vote: no lynch

as for the Deep vs Gonzo bickering, am I wrong in saying this is just a classic Gonzo play? he will vote for someone who pops in out of nowhere and ask them to explain themselves. it seems that no matter what that person says he comes out with a 'well I was going to unvote you, but your response gives me no reason to change that' line. I don't know what could be taken from that, since it's typical Gonzo, but I thought I'd bring it up at least.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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So Deep says I 'faded off', when I point out this makes no sense, he disappears. What gives?
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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Personally, I've never loved the concept of lynching someone D1, but I can understand why some people are for it.

If you hit, then it's basically game over. You not only lynch a baddie D1, but odds are, some mafioso reveals himself in the voting process by either defending the guy or whatever. So it can reveal info, but only in the case the guy that's lynched is bad.

So the way I've always understood it is that the town can afford a D1 lynch, while the mafia really can't, so therefore the risk of lynching a townie is worth it in exchange for a shot at lynching a mafioso. But that may not be the best course of action this game where we can't role reveal.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:38 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (5) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, Forenci, sbh
Deep (1) - Gonzo

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:44 PM    (permalink
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Nothing remotely sound to go off of.

Vote: No Lynch
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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I just think a no-lynch makes sense. Yes, in a typical game it makes more sense to lynch someone day one for the sake of getting information but in this new crazy game I feel as if waiting and seeing what happens is a good idea.
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Old 07-09-2012, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (6) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, Forenci, sbh, D-Unit
Deep (1) - Gonzo

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.


I have to run out for a little bit, but seeing as how there are three other mods for this game, it shouldn't be a problem. IF no one is around, anyone with the power to lock should do so when the majority is reached!
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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Ugh, seriously, I am sacrificing to be here, haha. My laptop died this morning so I've been out getting medical stuff done and took my laptop to the Apple Store (I can show you the appointment if you'd like).

I went into to work to get my ****** work laptop that only runs IE. It blows and I want to hit it with a hammer. I've already typed this whole message only to have it disappear or something, blah.

I am EXTREMELY against a No Lynch. I feel it doesn't give us much to go on and won't be voting that way myself. In most other games, I have felt this way. I know CJ usually opts for a No Lynch, but I'd like to see how some of the others who are voting no lynch have opted for/against it in the past. Cigaro leads my suspicion list right now, and I want to do some digging into some old games before revealing more.

I'm pretty much going to clear Renji at this point. He wouldn't come forward with the investigator (kinda) reveals if he was mafia, I am 99% sure of that. I don't think it is an exceptional idea given the nature of this game, but I appreciate people actually SAYING things.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by TitanHope View Post
Personally, I've never loved the concept of lynching someone D1, but I can understand why some people are for it.

If you hit, then it's basically game over. You not only lynch a baddie D1, but odds are, some mafioso reveals himself in the voting process by either defending the guy or whatever. So it can reveal info, but only in the case the guy that's lynched is bad.

So the way I've always understood it is that the town can afford a D1 lynch, while the mafia really can't, so therefore the risk of lynching a townie is worth it in exchange for a shot at lynching a mafioso. But that may not be the best course of action this game where we can't role reveal.
You should look at other games at mafiascum and what not. Day 1 goes very quick. They lynch someone (usually close to random or off of a small detail,) and just go for it, moving on from there and how peopel react to the death.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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I am EXTREMELY against a No Lynch. I feel it doesn't give us much to go on and won't be voting that way myself. In most other games, I have felt this way. I know CJ usually opts for a No Lynch, but I'd like to see how some of the others who are voting no lynch have opted for/against it in the past. Cigaro leads my suspicion list right now, and I want to do some digging into some old games before revealing more.
This is the first time I've advocated for the no lynch. In previous games, I've gone along with the crowd who screams "No info comes from a no lynch!" But I changed my mind after looking back at prior games and seeing that two-thirds of the time, nothing good comes from a first day lynch.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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This is the first time I've advocated for the no lynch. In previous games, I've gone along with the crowd who screams "No info comes from a no lynch!" But I changed my mind after looking back at prior games and seeing that two-thirds of the time, nothing good comes from a first day lynch.
I appreciate you coming forward with that, but isn't the chance to nab a mafia member well worth it? It is to me, and we've seen it hit a few times actually!
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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I appreciate you coming forward with that, but isn't the chance to nab a mafia member well worth it? It is to me, and we've seen it hit a few times actually!
The hard part is coming together on who to lynch without anyone having results from any night actions. Do we blindly go after someone? I don't think that's fair.

I mean, we could follow Deep's suspicion, but would we then be ready to lynch him if he's wrong?
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
I appreciate you coming forward with that, but isn't the chance to nab a mafia member well worth it? It is to me, and we've seen it hit a few times actually!
I'm not sure it is. Day One, there is a 75% chance we lynch a good guy. Night one, we lose at least one (probably two if there is a Serial Killer) good guys. Then Day Two, we have a 66% chance of lynching another good guy. Put that all together and the odds are highest (about 37%) that we lose four good guys before losing a single bad guy. I don't love those odds.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:32 PM    (permalink
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The hard part is coming together on who to lynch without anyone having results from any night actions. Do we blindly go after someone? I don't think that's fair.

I mean, we could follow Deep's suspicion, but would we then be ready to lynch him if he's wrong?
Lynching anyone because they accused a memeber of the town usually doesn't work out. Mafia wouldn't be so vocal to toss out accusations IMO and try to hide behind a No Lynch or as Gonzo mentioned, not talking about it at all.

I'm going to go with my gut here.

Vote: Cigaro

No lynch advocate, vocal "enough" but not to the point that I trust him. I recognize that he probably won't be lynched today, but I want to put this on the record as my initial reaction to his posts.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:34 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (6) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, Forenci, sbh, D-Unit
Deep (1) - Gonzo
Cigaro (1) - Shane

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:34 PM    (permalink
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I appreciate you coming forward with that, but isn't the chance to nab a mafia member well worth it? It is to me, and we've seen it hit a few times actually!
Out of all games played, a mafia member has been lynched exactly one time on the first day, SP in the Frieza Saga game. The only neutral to ever be lynched on the first day was Fenikz in The Wire game. To say we've hit a few times is simply not true.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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I'm not sure it is. Day One, there is a 75% chance we lynch a good guy. Night one, we lose at least one (probably two if there is a Serial Killer) good guys. Then Day Two, we have a 66% chance of lynching another good guy. Put that all together and the odds are highest (about 37%) that we lose four good guys before losing a single bad guy. I don't love those odds.

There will never be Above a 50% chance of lynching a mafia member, so do you think we should never lynch anyone if we don't have "concrete" information (which the past few games hasn't always been that concrete?)

You also have to take into account what we accomplish. Look at the few games when a mafia member HAS been lynched Day 1. The mafia got obliterated. I think that is worth the risk too. Add on that it does build vote counts and give information to go back to.

The worst thing we can do is do a quick no lynch. Though the day has gone on for awhile, I still want to hear more from the low posters before everyone just gives the mafia a free kill at night.

I've been mafia, and though Day 1 gives a low percentage of me dying, I still sweat bullets and focus more and more on every word I say and post I make. A full healthy 18 hour day or so makes the mafia sweat and that leads to mistakes in my mind.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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Out of all games played, a mafia member has been lynched exactly one time on the first day, SP in the Frieza Saga game. The only neutral to ever be lynched on the first day was Fenikz in The Wire game. To say we've hit a few times is simply not true.
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