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Old 07-09-2012, 04:39 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
Lynching anyone because they accused a memeber of the town usually doesn't work out. Mafia wouldn't be so vocal to toss out accusations IMO and try to hide behind a No Lynch or as Gonzo mentioned, not talking about it at all.

I'm going to go with my gut here.

Vote: Cigaro

No lynch advocate, vocal "enough" but not to the point that I trust him. I recognize that he probably won't be lynched today, but I want to put this on the record as my initial reaction to his posts.
If I were to vote to lynch anyone, he'd probably be my pick based on this

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Originally Posted by Cigaro View Post
I'm actually following Brody's line of thinking, whether he's serious of or not. This reminds me of the ES game where basically every single guild member at one point or another dropped that they wanted to end the tyranny of the guilds, as if saying that made them look neutral.
That kind of stuck out to me when I read it earlier. But rereading it, I think I interpreted it incorrectly the first time and it doesn't strike me a suspiciously as it did when I first read it.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:39 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
Star Wars game?
Was a no lynch day one. My point still stands.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:41 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
There will never be Above a 50% chance of lynching a mafia member, so do you think we should never lynch anyone if we don't have "concrete" information (which the past few games hasn't always been that concrete?)

You also have to take into account what we accomplish. Look at the few games when a mafia member HAS been lynched Day 1. The mafia got obliterated. I think that is worth the risk too. Add on that it does build vote counts and give information to go back to.

The worst thing we can do is do a quick no lynch. Though the day has gone on for awhile, I still want to hear more from the low posters before everyone just gives the mafia a free kill at night.

I've been mafia, and though Day 1 gives a low percentage of me dying, I still sweat bullets and focus more and more on every word I say and post I make. A full healthy 18 hour day or so makes the mafia sweat and that leads to mistakes in my mind.
This has literally only happened once. And that game went on for 11 days. The mafia was not remotely obliterated.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:42 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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Guess I had forgotten that, but it isn't like "information" brought about the Day 2 lynching. It's just dumb when people no lynch wanting information then don't get it and have nothing to stand on. Deduction wins this game, plain and simple, no matter the rules.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:43 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
Guess I had forgotten that, but it isn't like "information" brought about the Day 2 lynching. It's just dumb when people no lynch wanting information then don't get it and have nothing to stand on. Deduction wins this game, plain and simple, no matter the rules.
And useful deduction rarely ever comes from day one, plain and simple, no matter the rules.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:43 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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Originally Posted by Cigaro View Post
This has literally only happened once. And that game went on for 11 days. The mafia was not remotely obliterated.
That's fine, no lynch and let there be two deaths tonight. The risk is worth it, it always has been and those that have played A LOT more than us agree with that.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (6) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, Forenci, sbh, D-Unit
Deep (1) - Gonzo
Cigaro (1) - Shane

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:44 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
That's fine, no lynch and let there be two deaths tonight. The risk is worth it, it always has been and those that have played A LOT more than us agree with that.
As I said before, I couldn't care less what those who 'have played A LOT more than us' believe. That does not make them infallible mafia gods. And I'd rather take two deaths than three and be in the same exact position.
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Old 07-09-2012, 04:45 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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I'll just wait for others to back me up. Arguing with you for a page won't help anything.
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:04 PM    (permalink
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After catching up on the thread, Ive come to the conclusion (like most of you) that Renjis idea isnt that smartest, not in this game at least. Also, I use to always suggest a no lynch, but whenever I did I just got burned for saying it, so I'm still not sure whether it would be a good idea.And I remember playing in those games where we did No lynch, and then getting no where on day 2. For that reason I'd prefer a lynch, even if the probabilities are against us. I feel it is just that slightly more useful.
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:08 PM    (permalink
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Vote Cigaro

People advocating hard for no lynch is always fishy.

Even when we kill someone good day 1, e.g. the Final Fantasy game, there were like 2 bad people trying to defend me on day1 which eventually was part that lead to scottys demise. So yea, never no lynch.
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:15 PM    (permalink
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Shane has convinced me. Having played mafia, I love it when a no lynch happens. Obviously we don't want to be completely random in who we choose in fear of getting someone valuable to the town killed, but it is worth the risk.

I also like the vote for Cigaro. He's playing as he does when he's evil it seems to me. Somewhat aggressive, but not overly so.

Unvote: No lynch

Vote: Cigaro
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:23 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (5) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, sbh, D-Unit
Deep (1) - Gonzo
Cigaro (3) - Shane, Renji, Forenci

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:38 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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Originally Posted by Forenci View Post
Shane has convinced me. Having played mafia, I love it when a no lynch happens. Obviously we don't want to be completely random in who we choose in fear of getting someone valuable to the town killed, but it is worth the risk.

I also like the vote for Cigaro. He's playing as he does when he's evil it seems to me. Somewhat aggressive, but not overly so.

Unvote: No lynch

Vote: Cigaro
I've been evil once, and didn't play aggressively when I was so. I'm no vidae.
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Old 07-09-2012, 05:43 PM    (permalink
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Stats are being skewed and misrepresented, for whatever reason. I'm not taking a side in this sillyness, but the truth is, we don't know what odds there are for random lynching a mafioso. We'd have to know the number of mafia members to know that. And creating odds based on what happened in past games rather than the probability of what could happen in this game is a flawed process. I'm not sure if JR willingly overlooked that, or if he was just trying to be proactive and decided any basis for a decision was warranted, even if flawed.

But it is rather silly, because we know that lynching someone D1 isn't make or break for the town. The town lynched a protector D1 and lost a protector N1 in the Final Fantasy game, and they still beat the mafia fairly handily. It is, however, make or break for the mafia if they lose a bad guy.

We either take the risk for the massive reward, and possibly get more info in the voting process, or we play it safe, and in turn ensure we stay full strength.

I am gladly we're finally having a conversation about this, though.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:03 PM    (permalink
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vote: CMD


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Old 07-09-2012, 06:14 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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Originally Posted by TitanHope View Post
Stats are being skewed and misrepresented, for whatever reason. I'm not taking a side in this sillyness, but the truth is, we don't know what odds there are for random lynching a mafioso. We'd have to know the number of mafia members to know that. And creating odds based on what happened in past games rather than the probability of what could happen in this game is a flawed process. I'm not sure if JR willingly overlooked that, or if he was just trying to be proactive and decided any basis for a decision was warranted, even if flawed.

But it is rather silly, because we know that lynching someone D1 isn't make or break for the town. The town lynched a protector D1 and lost a protector N1 in the Final Fantasy game, and they still beat the mafia fairly handily. It is, however, make or break for the mafia if they lose a bad guy.

We either take the risk for the massive reward, and possibly get more info in the voting process, or we play it safe, and in turn ensure we stay full strength.

I am gladly we're finally having a conversation about this, though.
Not sure what to make of your speaking without saying anything, your riding the fence of the issue. You give credence to either side but seem to pick neither.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Updated Vote Count:

No Lynch (5) - CJ, Cigaro, JR, sbh, D-Unit
Deep (1) - Gonzo
Cigaro (3) - Shane, Renji, Forenci
CMD (1) - ATL

With 21 alive, 11 are needed for majority.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Not sure what to make of your speaking without saying anything, your riding the fence of the issue. You give credence to either side but seem to pick neither.
We often hear that people who advocate strongly a no lynch or people who stay completely out of the conversation are suspicious. Maybe coming out as a fence sitter is TH's way of deflecting suspicion without taking an actual stance.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:25 PM    (permalink
Shane P. Hallam
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Originally Posted by TitanHope View Post
Stats are being skewed and misrepresented, for whatever reason. I'm not taking a side in this sillyness, but the truth is, we don't know what odds there are for random lynching a mafioso. We'd have to know the number of mafia members to know that. And creating odds based on what happened in past games rather than the probability of what could happen in this game is a flawed process. I'm not sure if JR willingly overlooked that, or if he was just trying to be proactive and decided any basis for a decision was warranted, even if flawed.

But it is rather silly, because we know that lynching someone D1 isn't make or break for the town. The town lynched a protector D1 and lost a protector N1 in the Final Fantasy game, and they still beat the mafia fairly handily. It is, however, make or break for the mafia if they lose a bad guy.

We either take the risk for the massive reward, and possibly get more info in the voting process, or we play it safe, and in turn ensure we stay full strength.

I am gladly we're finally having a conversation about this, though.

So, what should we do? It is time to pick a side, I'm with JR/Cigaro here. At least they have committed to SOMETHING.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:28 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
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We often hear that people who advocate strongly a no lynch or people who stay completely out of the conversation are suspicious. Maybe coming out as a fence sitter is TH's way of deflecting suspicion without taking an actual stance.
I don't really understand this at all. It was the same case made against CJ in the SS game that resulted in his death. And it may result in mine, judging by recent votes.

But why does supporting no lynch make one suspicious? The odds heavily favor a lynch day one for the mafia, and many support it, so any mafia member would have no problem blending in with that crowd.

Could a mafia member know this and go no lynch? Of course. But that doesn't mean that everyone who supports no lynch is doing so. There would be no basis to state that those who support are more or less likely to be evil. They are just as likely to be on either side of the argument.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:36 PM    (permalink
Dr. Gonzo
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I don't really understand this at all. It was the same case made against CJ in the SS game that resulted in his death. And it may result in mine, judging by recent votes.

But why does supporting no lynch make one suspicious? The odds heavily favor a lynch day one for the mafia, and many support it, so any mafia member would have no problem blending in with that crowd.

Could a mafia member know this and go no lynch? Of course. But that doesn't mean that everyone who supports no lynch is doing so. There would be no basis to state that those who support are more or less likely to be evil. They are just as likely to be on either side of the argument.
Some incredibly **** logic is being used against you. Been there. Forenci and GOW changing their vote to you is just sketchy. I understand the argument for a lynch but I find it odd people are going after you. Not to say I think you are good but TH strikes me as far more suspicious. CMD really does need to come out and play. From what I have seen he does tend to not post much at all for the first few days in games.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:48 PM    (permalink
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I don't really understand this at all. It was the same case made against CJ in the SS game that resulted in his death. And it may result in mine, judging by recent votes.

But why does supporting no lynch make one suspicious? The odds heavily favor a lynch day one for the mafia, and many support it, so any mafia member would have no problem blending in with that crowd.

Could a mafia member know this and go no lynch? Of course. But that doesn't mean that everyone who supports no lynch is doing so. There would be no basis to state that those who support are more or less likely to be evil. They are just as likely to be on either side of the argument.
I don't know why it causes suspicion. I just know it always does.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:49 PM    (permalink
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There will never be Above a 50% chance of lynching a mafia member,

But there is always about a 66% chance you will take out a town aligned player and not necessarily one without needed powers

I've been mafia, and though Day 1 gives a low percentage of me dying, I still sweat bullets and focus more and more on every word I say and post I make. A full healthy 18 hour day or so makes the mafia sweat and that leads to mistakes in my mind.
So we take our time with this, no one said we had to rush.

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Star Wars game?

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Originally Posted by Cigaro View Post
Was a no lynch day one. My point still stands.
So, you got this one wrong - no big deal, when we lynch a good guy - the consequences are bigger.

As for discrediting Cigaro with saying "players with more experience" will agree with you is also a fallacy. I have played as many of these games as you and I started this games no lynch voting, and as a result, you made note of my voting trends earlier.

I can not speak for Cigaro's alliance in this game, but I assure you, as the statistics show, lynching at random for lynching's sake is a poor choice.
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Old 07-09-2012, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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lets just never lynch until we get all the information necessary
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