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Old 08-29-2012, 04:55 PM    (permalink
NY+Giants=NYG
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5-11 for the Cowboys? OK Noted. Could be right. Cowboys are boom or bust this year, imo.
I don't see you guys busting. I either see BOOM or average. I don't see the bust factor. If that happens than you know there is something very wrong with the way the franchise is doing things, assuming that 5-11 record becomes reality.
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Old 08-29-2012, 04:59 PM    (permalink
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I don't see you guys busting. I either see BOOM or average. I don't see the bust factor. If that happens than you know there is something very wrong with the way the franchise is doing things, assuming that 5-11 record becomes reality.
It could be injuries that does it, as has already happened with Austin and Witten. They don't have the most durable pair of running backs ever and the middle part of their o-line is still a major weak spot.

I do really, really like what Tyron Smith brings. He seems like he'll be one of the better LTs in the league very soon.

But I just don't have a good feeling about the season as a whole for them.
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Old 08-29-2012, 05:33 PM    (permalink
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It could be injuries that does it, as has already happened with Austin and Witten. They don't have the most durable pair of running backs ever and the middle part of their o-line is still a major weak spot.

I do really, really like what Tyron Smith brings. He seems like he'll be one of the better LTs in the league very soon.

But I just don't have a good feeling about the season as a whole for them.
Yeah they have been hit hard with injuries, but not the IR kind, which makes me think at some point these guys will be healthy. If that's the case, it will come down to coaching and the leaders to step up and keep that team fighting to play at a high level. Basically not allowing the team to sink, until they can get healthy.
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Old 08-29-2012, 05:38 PM    (permalink
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Yeah they have been hit hard with injuries, but not the IR kind, which makes me think at some point these guys will be healthy. If that's the case, it will come down to coaching and the leaders to step up and keep that team fighting to play at a high level. Basically not allowing the team to sink, until they can get healthy.
Isn't that typically one of the biggest criticisms of the Cowboys? That they lack the type of coaching and leadership to get them through those patches?

As for the injuries, yes, they haven't been serious yet. But a lot of them weren't particularly serious last year either. They just have a lot of guys who miss short spurts and then aren't 100% when they come back.

Like they might be without Austin and Witten for the first few weeks, then they'll come back just as Felix rolls an ankle and Bryant pulls a hammy. And this cycle just seems to bring that team down the last few years.
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Old 08-29-2012, 07:18 PM    (permalink
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Ive said this a million times, and I firmly believe this:

It is basically impossible to repeat as SB champs in today's era. So I am not expecting us to repeat as champs.

I do expect us to make the playoffs though. If we can make the playoffs, and win a playoff game I'll consider it a successful season. Just don't lose to any division rivals in the playoffs. That's all I ask. Anything else is gravy to me.

But I do feel we are a playoff team and will be highly disappointed if we don't make the playoffs. Honestly, I firmly believe we are the best team in our division. We are deeper than the Cowboys and are mentally tougher, and while our talent is equal to Philly, we have a significant advantage at qb, and I think that pushes us over the edge. They have serious concerns at LB and safety, and their offense is way too inconsistent as is Vick.

The Redskins aren't ready.
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Old 08-29-2012, 09:18 PM    (permalink
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I agree with Ktrain. Every year we hear about the Steelers defense getting older and falling off. Every year we hear about how our OL is ****** and Ben will get hurt long term. But every year we prove them wrong and always contend for the number 1 seed.
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Old 08-29-2012, 09:44 PM    (permalink
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The Steelers defense will be fine. They draft well, they have guys who can step up.

I'm not worried about the offense either. When you have a stud qb, you'll always have a good offense. They have 3 very good WRs and a stud Qb. They'll be fine.

I have Pittsburgh as my darkhorse SB pick out of the AFC. Who exactly is old on their defense? Think about it. It's their DBs, and 1 OLB. That OLB still has another year or 2 left in the tank, and as long as you get pressure up front your DBs should be ok.
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Old 08-29-2012, 09:47 PM    (permalink
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The Steelers defense will be fine. They draft well, they have guys who can step up.

I'm not worried about the offense either. When you have a stud qb, you'll always have a good offense. They have 3 very good WRs and a stud Qb. They'll be fine.

I have Pittsburgh as my darkhorse SB pick out of the AFC. Who exactly is old on their defense? Think about it. It's their DBs, and 1 OLB. That OLB still has another year or 2 left in the tank, and as long as you get pressure up front your DBs should be ok.
3 DBs lo. All the rest of them are youngl, but I agree with what you say.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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My issue is less with the Steelers getting old, as LeBeau's schemes being limited by the proliferation of spread passing attacks. That, combined with their aging secondary, makes me wonder whether they're defense will be able to step up for them the way they have throughout Roethlisberger's tenure. I do like the offense though, OL is improving, the receivers are dangerous and when other Ben isn't going full ****** he's a monster.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:07 PM    (permalink
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:13 PM    (permalink
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The scheme is fine. LeBea needs safeties who can cover a lot of ground. His safeties are old now, so the CBs get exposed. They run a lot of zone coverage, a lot of Cover 2. When your safeties are slow, you're screwed in that coverage.

The scheme isn't dated, they just need younger players back there. But pressure up front can help the back end. Harrison, thin Woodley (not fat Woodley), and Heyward could bring the heat.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:18 PM    (permalink
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The scheme is fine. LeBea needs safeties who can cover a lot of ground. His safeties are old now, so the CBs get exposed. They run a lot of zone coverage, a lot of Cover 2. When your safeties are slow, you're screwed in that coverage.

The scheme isn't dated, they just need younger players back there. But pressure up front can help the back end. Harrison, thin Woodley (not fat Woodley), and Heyward could bring the heat.
I wasn't saying that the scheme was no longer able to be effective, but it's no longer as good at hiding the secondary as it used to be. In combination with those aging DBs it's no longer gunna be able to smooth out any struggles the offense faces. With a young OL still gelling, a QB that takes as much of a beating as other Ben, and their crapping RBs, I could see the Steelers missing the playoffs.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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I think the Vikings are definitely less talented than the Dolphins and play in a more difficult division. The Dolphins have looked awful in preseason so far, but Tannehill has looked competent without much help.
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Old 08-29-2012, 11:06 PM    (permalink
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Have to agree with the Raiders evaluation, we have a pretty talented team but will everything click and DMC stay healthy? Palmer needs to step it up and getting Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford back should help things a little at least. Look out for this Streater at WR, he and Criner could shine at points this season as rookies.
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Old 08-29-2012, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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The Raiders are indeed talented enough to win that division, I'm just not sure if they are consistent enough. When everything was clicking last year, they could start the running game, and then spread you out and beat you down the field. I don't think their defense will be good enough for them to win their division. I think the corners and outside linebackers will be an issue.
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Old 08-29-2012, 11:51 PM    (permalink
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Excellent post indeed.

Two things that caught me most:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerBaron View Post
1.) Expect the trend of young QBs starting early to continue.
Agreed 100%. Sitting quarterbacks is a custom and relic of the past. Itís an antiquated approach to development for three main reasons.

First, the passing conditions in the NFL are a lot easier for rookie quarterbacks. In the seventies, eighties, and nineties, defenses were allowed to rough their receivers up and wallop quarterbacks high or low. Now, defenses canít be as aggressive in their coverage and canít wallop quarterbacks high or low. The middle of the field isnít as dangerous as it used to be due to the crackdown on vicious contact and receivers can contest that area much easier. And defenses love to defend inside-out.

Second, passing concepts have trickled down to the high school and college levels. The Wing T and the Wishbone used to dominate those levels of football. Now, itís not uncommon to see spread concepts incorporated into offensive philosophies in high school and college. Recruits entering college are more familiar with fundamental passing concepts and prospects entering the NFL are more comfortable with interpreting an interconnected series of information.

Third, the draft process has evolved. It used to be that prospects participated in the NFL-related events and finished their degrees at the same time. Now, prospects begin working with a personal positional coach once their bowl game is finished. Those extra months with their own quarterback guru are quite beneficial to graduate the learning curve.

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4.) Teams you would bet WON'T win the Superbowl
I would go with: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams.

Fourteen teams. Almost half of the league.

Debated adding the Chiefs, Lions, Panthers, and Seahawks to that list, too.
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:57 AM    (permalink
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4-12 is a ridiculously low floor for the Jets but I do see anywhere from 6 to 10 wins for them.

Just a favorable schedule....NFC West, AFC South and then play Miami twice? That's gotta be more than four wins in itself IMHO.
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Old 08-30-2012, 07:57 AM    (permalink
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The scheme is fine. LeBea needs safeties who can cover a lot of ground. His safeties are old now, so the CBs get exposed. They run a lot of zone coverage, a lot of Cover 2. When your safeties are slow, you're screwed in that coverage.

The scheme isn't dated, they just need younger players back there. But pressure up front can help the back end. Harrison, thin Woodley (not fat Woodley), and Heyward could bring the heat.
It seems they found a gem of UDFA Robert Golden. I hope he makes the team because he's been flying to the football and making plays. He could be their starting S in a year or so. I REALLY hope TJ McDonald is a Steeler next season.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, Sean Spence could also play in the "Polamalu Role" and brings youth and speed to their nickle package.
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Old 08-30-2012, 08:11 AM    (permalink
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Excellent post indeed.

Two things that caught me most:

Agreed 100%. Sitting quarterbacks is a custom and relic of the past. It’s an antiquated approach to development for three main reasons.

First, the passing conditions in the NFL are a lot easier for rookie quarterbacks. In the seventies, eighties, and nineties, defenses were allowed to rough their receivers up and wallop quarterbacks high or low. Now, defenses can’t be as aggressive in their coverage and can’t wallop quarterbacks high or low. The middle of the field isn’t as dangerous as it used to be due to the crackdown on vicious contact and receivers can contest that area much easier. And defenses love to defend inside-out.

Second, passing concepts have trickled down to the high school and college levels. The Wing T and the Wishbone used to dominate those levels of football. Now, it’s not uncommon to see spread concepts incorporated into offensive philosophies in high school and college. Recruits entering college are more familiar with fundamental passing concepts and prospects entering the NFL are more comfortable with interpreting an interconnected series of information.

Third, the draft process has evolved. It used to be that prospects participated in the NFL-related events and finished their degrees at the same time. Now, prospects begin working with a personal positional coach once their bowl game is finished. Those extra months with their own quarterback guru are quite beneficial to graduate the learning curve.



I would go with: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams.

Fourteen teams. Almost half of the league.

Debated adding the Chiefs, Lions, Panthers, and Seahawks to that list, too.
Thanks, and, 14 teams you are 100% sure won't win the Superbowl? That's ballsy. Maybe I'm just playing it extra conservative, but I could see unlikely but plausible scenarios where teams like the Bills, Bengals, Titans, Raiders and Bucs really get rolling and get there. I'm sure a lot of people would have put the 49ers of last year high on this type of list before the season and we see how close they came.

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4-12 is a ridiculously low floor for the Jets but I do see anywhere from 6 to 10 wins for them.

Just a favorable schedule....NFC West, AFC South and then play Miami twice? That's gotta be more than four wins in itself IMHO.
It's a floor, but a plausible floor. That offense has been beyond pathetic. Yes, it's the preseason, but it's been the worst offense in the entire league of the preseason. If they don't immediately show drastic improvement and get off to a rough start (I predict 2-4 at best in their first 6 games,) I could see the implosion beginning and them finishing the season on a very, very poor note.

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It seems they found a gem of UDFA Robert Golden. I hope he makes the team because he's been flying to the football and making plays. He could be their starting S in a year or so. I REALLY hope TJ McDonald is a Steeler next season.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, Sean Spence could also play in the "Polamalu Role" and brings youth and speed to their nickle package.
Sean Spence, the 230+ pound linebacker. Hmm....I don't know about that. Maybe if, after LeBeau's eventual retirement, they shifted more towards a defense like Tomlin ran previously, I could see him as a good OLB in coverage, he's athletic enough for that, but I don't think he's going to be flying around the field like Polamalu did in his prime. That seems to be a stretch...

Also, every fan of every team thinks a few of their UDFAs are studs in the preseason. A lot of those guys go on to never do a damn thing in the regular season. So I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into Golden at the moment. Let him, yanno, actually make the 53 man roster and get a year of playing special teams under his belt at the very least before we start declaring him a future starting safety.
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Old 08-30-2012, 08:53 AM    (permalink
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New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks

That's about as brave as I'll get. I can't believe no one else has the Chargers, they have exactly two playmakers and they're both always injured. The Chargers won't be winning a Superbowl anytime soon.
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Old 08-30-2012, 09:18 AM    (permalink
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I think Spence could play pretty well in a nickle S/LB spot his rookie year. He's very instinctive and flies to the football, sorta like what Polamalu does. His coverage needs a little bit more work, but I believe LeBeau has some plans for this kid now and in the future. I hated the pick at first, but have come around to it a full 360.

About Golden:

I know he's going to make the team, at least at first. The Steelers need to carry an extra S because of Ryan Clark already being out Week 1 in Denver. I fully believe Golden can become a starting S for our team and he shouldn't have went undrafted. If he didn't sift back and forth from corner to safety each year, he would have IMO. I'm glad though because they got a physical football player who can play both, but his future might be replacing Ryan Clark. I like Ryan Mundy, and he might start next year, but I like Golden more long term.

Now that I think of it, the Steelers have had a nice class as far as UDFAs the past few years. To name a few: Steve McClendon, Ramon Foster, Doug Legrusky(who I don't like, but the coaches do), Isaac Redman, Weslye Saunders, Corbin Bryant(who I think is going to be a solid back up), and hopes for Adrian Robinson and Robert Golden.
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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I have my picks too, and since I don't like making threads, I will just post mine here...

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
2. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
4. St. Louis Rams (5-11)

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Detroit Lions (11-5)
3. Chicago Bears (7-9)
4. Minnesota Vikings (4-12)

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers (10-6)
2. New Orleans Saints (8-8)
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
2. New York Giants (11-5)
3. Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
4. Washington Redskins (7-9)

PLAYOFFS??????
Lions @ EAGLES
GIANTS @ Panthers

Eagles @ PACKERS
Giants @ 49ERS

Packers @ 49ERS

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (10-6)
2. San Diego Chargers (8-8)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
4. Oakland Raiders (5-11)

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (3-13)...#1 pick for us draft niks!!!!!!!!

AFC South
1. Houston Texans (9-7)
2. Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3. Indianapolis Colts (6-10)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (7-9)
3. New York Jets (7-9)
4. Miami Dolphins (5-11)

PLAYOFFS???
CHARGERS @ Broncos
STEELERS @ Texans

Steelers @ RAVENS
CHARGERS @ Patriots

Chargers @ RAVENS

SUPER BOWL (THE HARBOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Ravens vs. 49ERS
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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I'd love to see the Browns get the first overall pick, if just to make the Weeden pick completely pointless.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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I'd love to see the Browns get the first overall pick, if just to make the Weeden pick completely pointless.
Could you imagine the debates?

Me/Most intelligent people: "They should totally take Barkley/Bray/Wilson/Thomas/Whoever as a major upgrade to Weeden, who obviously isn't franchise QB material while those guys are.

Idiots/Homers: "Nuh-uh! They just took Weeden! Give him more than one year!"

It'll be like the Panthers who just took Clausen two years ago and they were faced with whether or not to take Newton.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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Could you imagine the debates?

Me/Most intelligent people: "They should totally take Barkley/Bray/Wilson/Thomas/Whoever as a major upgrade to Weeden, who obviously isn't franchise QB material while those guys are.

Idiots/Homers: "Nuh-uh! They just took Weeden! Give him more than one year!"

It'll be like the Panthers who just took Clausen two years ago and they were faced with whether or not to take Newton.
Or last season when the Vikings were clearly in the running for a very high pick, and the idiots commenting on PFT were swearing up and down that they wouldn't take Luck/Griffin/Barkley because they had taken Christian ******* Ponder the year before.

I actually kind of like Ponder and it wound up being moot anyway; but god damn, people...
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