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Old 09-28-2012, 04:50 PM    (permalink
BeerBaron
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Originally Posted by Grizzlegom View Post
This is true mostly because the Browns have a new owner that is likely to clean house. What if the browns start winning these close games and manage to get to 6-10 or something like that? The regime may stick around. I understand that people didn't like Weeden coming into the draft and laughed at the Browns taking him in the first round but its funny seeing people bash him in here right now alluding to him being out of it in a year or two considering he's gotten better just about every week so far. He's still making rookie mistakes, like the pick-six, but he's also showing flashes of why the others felt he had the talent to justify taking him in the first round.
If Holmgren goes, as has already been rumored, I don't think that the rest of the staff would be safe even at 6-10. If Weeden manages to be more consistent and maybe grade out to a Dalton-esque level (not so much the wins, but just consistent performance) he might buy himself a chance with the new staff, but I bet they'd still consider bringing in their own guy.

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I agree! Rookies do well. But i am saying was it was never the norm way back. The norm was draft a guy, sit him, and then play him later on. This changed really when Ben started and did well. By then the rules of the NFL shifted, and it became a passing league, with the rules also favoring the offensive players.

Matt Ryan then came along and did well, and that's when I noticed the fan and media expectations drastically change. Now it seems like the norm is for the rookie QB to do well, and if someone doesn't do well early on, it's bad press and perhaps the bust label.

The Jags QB has an uphill climb to win back that fan/media respect. I would hate for Eli to play as a rookie now with those expectations and playing in NY. It would be a million times worse with our own fans pointing to the successful rookie QBs as evidence which would fuel WW3. It was big debate in the giants MB, and sports talk radio. If Eli played as a rookie now, I can't imagine the drama.
I think it's even beyond the media and the fans. Like I said, we've seen an increase in team expectations as well. While the coaches and GMs might try to tune out external voices in making decisions, a good portion of NFL owners would prefer their team be winning and winning now. They see guys like Newton, Dalton, Ryan, Flacco, etc. all jump out to great success right away and want to know why the guy their GM/Coach drafted so high can't do it.

A lot of the most consistent teams in the sport (Steelers, Giants, Patriots) have owners who just sign the checks and let their football guys run the team.

But the teams who seem to eternally struggle either have ownership situations that have been in flux (Browns, Jags, Vikings) or have meddling owners who like attention (Jets, Redskins.) And then of course, there are the clueless owners or the penny pinchers (Lions, Cardinals, Bengals.)

There is a reason none of those teams in that last paragraph have won a Superbowl...well, ever besides the Redskins and Jets, and their SB victories are getting further and further in the rear view mirror.

Anyway, returning from being side tracked, the great expectations placed on rookie QBs come internally as well.
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:12 PM    (permalink
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If Holmgren goes, as has already been rumored, I don't think that the rest of the staff would be safe even at 6-10. If Weeden manages to be more consistent and maybe grade out to a Dalton-esque level (not so much the wins, but just consistent performance) he might buy himself a chance with the new staff, but I bet they'd still consider bringing in their own guy.
A perfect 158.3 in the 4th quarter?
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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A perfect 158.3 in the 4th quarter?
That wasn't as a rookie. Go tout your statistics elsewhere.
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:18 PM    (permalink
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That wasn't as a rookie. Go tout your statistics elsewhere.
You wouldn't complain if I had it like:

QB A - 158.3 passer rating
QB B - 58.3 passer rating
one is Andy Dalton. But I won't tell....
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:26 PM    (permalink
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The important thing is, youre not implying anything with those stats, you just find them interesting right?
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:27 PM    (permalink
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The important thing is, youre not implying anything with those stats, you just find them interesting right?
Andy Dalton iz elitezzzzz
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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The age criticism for Weeden is so over the top. Say what you want about him as a prospect (personally I wasn't a huge fan), but the critics say with absolute certainty that he's going to be useless for 3-4 years, and his body will break down immediately after that. That is basically as big of a leap of faith as the idea that Weeden would be pro ready. The truth is there have been a bunch of guys who have taken different development paths, but most effective starters in the league didn't take 4 years to start playing good football more consistently than not. Also, most decent QB's can play well into their late 30's even with mediocre tools.

Weeden is already arguably better than Colt McCoy and pretty much most of the other options available to them during the offseason. They upgraded the most important position on their team with their first round pick, and if he develops on the path that most successful QB's take they'll likely have 5+ years of a functional QB before they need to throw him on the scrap heap. Teams can do a lot worse than that with a draft pick in the 20's.

Hate the player for his ability to play football. Drafting a QB in his late 20's isn't inherently bad. If you get a franchise QB who can play functional football by year 3, you're in better shape than pretty much any other pick you could have made.
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Old 09-28-2012, 05:33 PM    (permalink
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i'm not surprised you have a thing for the fire crotch.
He is no Tim Tebow Knowshon Moreno! BURN!
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:09 PM    (permalink
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Also, "most decent QBs can play into their late 30s."

By decent, do you mean future HoFers? Those are the only guys in the past two decades playing well past 35. Like njx pointed out, you might get a Charlie Batch riding the bench that late, or a Kerry Collins being a very lousy starter, but by 35, the vast majority of QBs are done.

They may not take the constant hits of RB, but they get banged around just enough and put a lot of stress on their throwing arm over the course of a career. Favre was just a freak, so he's a definite exception. But besides him...has ANY QB, ANY QB at all, played "well" into their late 30s recently?
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:14 PM    (permalink
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Kurt Warner!
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Kurt Warner!
Alright, I'll give you that one. We're up to two in the...12-13 years since the retirements of Dan Marino and John Elway. Alright.

And those 3 + Favre are all current/future HoFers.

So anyone else have examples of serviceable starting QBs playing past 35?
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:20 PM    (permalink
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name 10 qbs in league history who were still playing competently, let alone well enough to justify a first round pick, past age 34. no, the charlie batchs of the world don't count. then ask yourself, how many of these qbs already had major throwing arm issues before ever taking an nfl snap?
The shoulder injury thing is a legitimate concern. Again, my point is more directed towards the "OMG Weeden IS OLD LULZ" crowd. My best guess about the shoulder injury is that the Browns medical staff checked it out and felt comfortable with it so they green lit the pick. It's not like arm strength is the issue right now. There is likely plenty of other wear and tear he's avoided by not taking years of hits like other QB prospects have.

As to your second point Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning. Brett Farve, Trent Green, and Rich Gannon all have had very successful seasons post 34 in the past 10 years, and we're about to see a glut of guys like Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisburger, and Phillip Rivers have good seasons past that mark too. It's a different league now, guys are hit less and there is less contact on receivers allowing QB's to get by without the same kind of arm strength that they did before.

That's not to say I like Weeden, but the criticism shouldn't be on his age, it should be the fact that he wasn't a great QB prospect to begin with. If you can get even a few good years of quality QB play that's worth a 1st round pick regardless of the age of the prospect in question.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Bull.

I think the reason most people were driven batty with the Weeden hype was because of how "mature" and "polished" his supporters claimed him to be pre-draft, and why it was acceptable for him to go in the first round and why his age didn't matter long term.

It was all trash. Now those some people try to preach patience because he's inexperienced and on a bad team. They can't have it both ways.

As a 28 year old rookie, he needed to hit the ground running. No excuses. He did not and if it takes him the 3-4 years to develop into a successful NFL passer that it takes most QBs (if he's even given that time to develop) he'll already be to the point where many NFL players bodies start giving out on them. (Don't forget, he had to quit his baseball career because he basically threw out his arm.)

If there is major upheaval on the Cleveland staff, I wouldn't be shocked in the least if their next coach/GM is looking at the available QB prospects with their inevitable high first round pick he'll have.
I don't disagree with the last part at all.

However, what I bolded is true for most NFL players but NOT pocket passers, which is exactly what Weeden is.

And I think we can all agree that his receivers are beyond terrible.

No on expected the Brownies to win many games this year, and he hasn't played at a high level. But there's clearly a lot to work with.

Something overlooked is how horrendously bad he looked in his first start, and how he's drastically improved from that. Perseverance is an excellent quality in a QB (and the main reason I've always been against sitting talented rookies), and Weeden couldn't have looked worse in game 1. Forget the stats or the losses, he's simply improved from that point.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:22 PM    (permalink
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Alright, I'll give you that one. We're up to two in the...12-13 years since the retirements of Dan Marino and John Elway. Alright.

And those 3 + Favre are all current/future HoFers.

So anyone else have examples of serviceable starting QBs playing past 35?
Weeden is 6-7 years away from being 35 though. It's quite likely that if he is destined to be a good QB he'll be playing good football well before that.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:22 PM    (permalink
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Alright, I'll give you that one. We're up to two in the...12-13 years since the retirements of Dan Marino and John Elway. Alright.

And those 3 + Favre are all current/future HoFers.

So anyone else have examples of serviceable starting QBs playing past 35?

Well this is another HOFer, but i'd bet good money that Shaun Hill is still going strong in 3 years time.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:23 PM    (permalink
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However, what I bolded is true for most NFL players but NOT pocket passers, which is exactly what Weeden is.
Name 3 decent QBs past 35. See? it is true.

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Well this is another HOFer, but i'd bet good money that Shaun Hill is still going strong in 3 years time.
Embarrassment of riches right there.

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The shoulder injury thing is a legitimate concern. Again, my point is more directed towards the "OMG Weeden IS OLD LULZ" crowd. My best guess about the shoulder injury is that the Browns medical staff checked it out and felt comfortable with it so they green lit the pick. It's not like arm strength is the issue right now. There is likely plenty of other wear and tear he's avoided by not taking years of hits like other QB prospects have.
You know what the Browns thought. It's simple. They had **** for QB. They missed badly on Colt McCoy. Mike Holmgren has two choices: ride his bust into the sunset or draft a QB. The only "immediate starter" remaining was Weeden. So they went after him.

Holmgren doesn't care if Weeden busts, because he'll be fired before it happens. If Weeden comes out hot and plays good for 5 years, Holmgren can retire.

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As to your second point Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning. Brett Farve, Trent Green, and Rich Gannon all have had very successful seasons post 34 in the past 10 years
Brady, Warner, Manning, and Favre are all locks to the hall of fame.

Hasselbeck wasn't good in the last 3-4 seasons. His TD/INT ratio is less than 1. Trent Green's last good season was at 34. Rich Gannon is one I have to give you. He had his best season at 37. None of them had shoulder surgery before they came into the NFL though. And all of them had numerous seasons of experience to fall back on by the time they were in their 30s to compensate for deteriorating arm strength.

Also, I remember when people laughed at the notion that Manning wouldn't play into his 40s.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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Name the QBs past 35 that were given a shot? Collins on the Colts last year which was a joke, Peyton this year, Warner, Montana, Favre...

Weeden is an exception in so many ways. The game taxes QBs who see it evolve and take NFL hits and have to live an NFL schedule for 15+ year. Mentally, physically, and emotionally. Weeden doesn't have that at all.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:29 PM    (permalink
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Weeden is 6-7 years away from being 35 though. It's quite likely that if he is destined to be a good QB he'll be playing good football well before that.
Completely agree.

The argument should be about what he does on the field. If you feel comfortable enough in your criticisms of him to predict he won't be good - why even bother with the age stuff?
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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Name the QBs past 35 that were given a shot? Collins on the Colts last year which was a joke, Peyton this year, Warner, Montana, Favre...

Weeden is an exception in so many ways. The game taxes QBs who see it evolve and take NFL hits and have to live an NFL schedule for 15+ year. Mentally, physically, and emotionally. Weeden doesn't have that at all.
Are you his agent? Or his mom?

I mean, at the end of the day, I really don't give a ****, I just enjoy sharing my opinion on things. He's the QB of the Cleveland Browns. Younger and more talented guys have failed miserably in that role before him. The odds are against him whether he is 28 or 23.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:37 PM    (permalink
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I disagree. I think one of the few advantages of being that old as a rookie is the maturity level. If he can come in and learn and forget about the clubs and cars and partying that comes with being an NFL player, he has a good chance. I liked bits of what i saw last night from him. I don't know how much that helped Chris Weinke though.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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Name the QBs past 35 that were given a shot? Collins on the Colts last year which was a joke, Peyton this year, Warner, Montana, Favre...
If you think Brandon Weeden playing like Kerry Collins isn't a bust... I don't know what to tell you. Kerry Collins was a journeyman QB in the NFL for a reason.

And the rest of the guys you mentioned are in or going in the Hall of Fame.

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I disagree. I think one of the few advantages of being that old as a rookie is the maturity level. If he can come in and learn and forget about the clubs and cars and partying that comes with being an NFL player, he has a good chance. I liked bits of what i saw last night from him. I don't know how much that helped Chris Weinke though.
Lots of guys come in older than average and have been totally irrelevant. However, when that's brought up with Weeden, it's somehow an advantage.

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If you feel comfortable enough in your criticisms of him to predict he won't be good - why even bother with the age stuff?
It's really really simple to understand.

Good QBs can be good at 30. They turn into **** in their mid 30s. They spent a first round pick on a QB for a 6 year guy. He's playing like an average rookie. So let's assume in 4 years, he looks like Matt Ryan. If his body breaks down like just about every other NFL passer, he'll be crap about 2 years after that.

If someone really thinks 6 years of average QBing is worth a first round selection, then it will be perfectly obvious why they are no longer a GM.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:41 PM    (permalink
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It's the Browns.

They're destined to be mediocre. The glaring lack of talent on that team is a testament to how bad Holmgren has been.

They have no playmakers on offense. None. Their best player on offense is a RB. Their OL is good. But no skill position talent that's worth a damn.

Their defense is blue collar and respectable, and Jauron does a great job of putting the pieces together, but they need an elite talent on the DL (a DE), and they need another CB.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:42 PM    (permalink
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I disagree. I think one of the few advantages of being that old as a rookie is the maturity level. If he can come in and learn and forget about the clubs and cars and partying that comes with being an NFL player, he has a good chance. I liked bits of what i saw last night from him. I don't know how much that helped Chris Weinke though.
Him being mature is great in that he's not out getting trouble or blowing his money VY style, but that doesn't mean a thing if he's not worth keeping around as a product on the field. Think about John Beck...he was older and more mature and all that. Terrible QB, but he was older and more mature.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:47 PM    (permalink
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I disagree. I think one of the few advantages of being that old as a rookie is the maturity level. If he can come in and learn and forget about the clubs and cars and partying that comes with being an NFL player, he has a good chance. I liked bits of what i saw last night from him. I don't know how much that helped Chris Weinke though.
Not sure if serious....Are you trolling?
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Old 09-28-2012, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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It's the Browns.

They're destined to be mediocre. The glaring lack of talent on that team is a testament to how bad Holmgren has been.

They have no playmakers on offense. None. Their best player on offense is a RB. Their OL is good. But no skill position talent that's worth a damn.

Their defense is blue collar and respectable, and Jauron does a great job of putting the pieces together, but they need an elite talent on the DL (a DE), and they need another CB.
Eh the team had no talent to begin with. The Phil Savage and Mangini eras left them with very very little top end talent and no depth. Holmgren has done a nice job rebuilding them but the problem the team had so many damn holes to fill that the improvement in talent levels hasn't reflected on the record. His main fault was punting a year on Mangini (mainly because the Walrus is too nice a person) and wasting dollars on mediocre players in FA.
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