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Old 02-28-2013, 12:22 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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From another site. Terrific insight.

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For starters, here is a link to Alex Smith's career profile on nfl.com[1]
People immediately say that Alex Smith has had one and a half good seasons, as well as six mediocre seasons. This is simply not true. Looking at the stats, it's very clearly he was never asked to do much--this much is true, as evident by the fact that he's never had a 4000 yard season--hell, he only has one season above 3000 yards. However, lets take a look at his other stats, which show a much better picture.
In 2005, his first year starting any game, he did not perform very well. Looking at the head coach at the time, Mike Nolan[2] , who wasn't very good at all and can't seem to hold a job, he played awful. 1 TD to 11 INTs in 9 games. Horrid.
In 2006, Alex Smith improved notably. With Norv Turner as his Offensive Coordinator (and we all know how good he is at that), his completion percentage went from a bad 50.9 to a respectable 58.1, and this was starting all 16 games instead of only 9. His TD to INT ratio got better--16 TDs to 16 INTs--nothing to be proud of normally, but it's significantly better to have a 1:1 ratio as opposed to 1:11.
In 2007, Smith regressed horribly. Who was his OC at the time? Jim Hostler[3] , a man widely criticized for his ineffective coordinating and his misuse of Gore, who had led the NFC in rushing the previous year. He posted a career low 48.7% in only 7 games, with 2 TDs to 4 INTs.
2008 rolls around, and Alex is sent to the bench by coach Mike Nolan. Nolan proceeds to get fired halfway through the season. Let me reiterate: The head coach was fired during the season. He was replaced by Mike Singletary[4] (oh joy).
2009, not 2011, is where Alex Smith starts to become the Alex Smith of today. His completion percentage jumped up from 48.7% the last season he was starting to a very nice 60.5%. Again, he didn't post very many yards--but he did what he was asked to do, and brought his TDs to 18 to 12 INTs, or a 3:2 ratio--through his 11 starts that year. At this point in his career, Alex has thrown 37 TDs to 43 INTs, which is honestly much better than people probably expected after starting that ratio off 1:11.
2010, Alex Smith stayed largely consistent with his 2009 form. His completion percentage stayed close at 59.6, and he threw 14 TDs to 10 INTs (For those keeping track, he's now at 51 TDs to 53 INTs). His ratio is getting better and better each year but yet again his team suffers from his head coach getting fired during the season. For the second year in a row, Alex only plays in 11 games, yet still manages to improve.
I'm sure we all know what happens come 2011. Alex Smith's stats go above and beyond. He starts and plays all 16 games for the first time since '06, and he wins 13 of them. Not just that, with competent coaching, he throws 17 TDs to only 5 INTs, as well as having his first 3000 yard season. His INT% for his throws is an incredibly low 1.1%. His career TDs to INTs is now 68 to 58--he's in the positives and it's looking to stay that way through Alex Smith's progression. He did this while getting sacked a whopping 44 times behind the San Francisco offensive line.
This season comes around and Alex Smith is having yet another career year. He's boasting a 70% completion percentage, the highest in the NFL. He's not asked to make hard throws, evident by his yards. However, he clearly makes all his throws count--as evident by his 8.0 average yards/throw. 13 TDs to 5 TDs over 9 starts and 1 relieve of Colin Kaepernick, his replacement, Alex's career TD to INTs is now 81 to 63, about 4:3. Not bad, considering how he started off 1:11.
Overall, I think this subreddit underestimates how good Alex Smith is. Is he anything great? No, not at all. However, he's shown improvement over the last 4 years--not 2--and with confident coaching shows that he can be a very reliable Quarterback in the NFL. Andy Reid is known for how well he can develop QBs--they are going to be a very interesting combination. With his recent progress combined with Andy's system, I see Alex finding success in Kansas City as their starter. Do I think he's going to great in Kansas City? No, but I don't think Kansas City got jipped by this trade either. Even if it was a 2nd round and then some.
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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Again, Andy Reid being a QB guru is a common misconception. Is he good? Sure. Is he a GURU? No. Not even close. And definitely nowhere near Harbaugh.
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:32 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by vidae View Post
Again, Andy Reid being a QB guru is a common misconception. Is he good? Sure. Is he a GURU? No. Not even close. And definitely nowhere near Harbaugh.
He's consistently maximized the abilities of his QBs. That's a guru. He made A.J. Feely, Kevin Kolb, Vick, McNabb, all of them play a step above they've ever played in Philly. And he was Favre's QB coach during his developmental years.

What you're trying to say is as an evaluator he hasn't been great. That's true. But as a quarterback coach he's been phenomenal.
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:34 PM    (permalink
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Kolb wasn't good in Philly. Vick was good for 8 games and fell off a cliff. Feely? Nothing spectacular. I'll give you McNabb, he was great under Reid, but is that Reid, McNabb being talented, or a mix of both?
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:39 PM    (permalink
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He's consistently maximized the abilities of his QBs. That's a guru. He made A.J. Feely, Kevin Kolb, Vick, McNabb, all of them play a step above they've ever played in Philly. And he was Favre's QB coach during his developmental years.

What you're trying to say is as an evaluator he hasn't been great. That's true. But as a quarterback coach he's been phenomenal.
No. Mooch was the QB coach during Favre's developmental years. He had won two MVP awards by the time Reid got the QB gig.
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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Kolb wasn't good in Philly. Vick was good for 8 games and fell off a cliff. Feely? Nothing spectacular. I'll give you McNabb, he was great under Reid, but is that Reid, McNabb being talented, or a mix of both?
But here's the truth of it. How did any of those guy do after they left Philly regardless of where they went afterwards they were never even a starter for a full season after leaving. He took not starting caliber guys and made them playoff caliber QBs.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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Kolb wasn't good in Philly. Vick was good for 8 games and fell off a cliff. Feely? Nothing spectacular. I'll give you McNabb, he was great under Reid, but is that Reid, McNabb being talented, or a mix of both?
Kolb was way better in Philly than Arizona...
Feely was way better in Philly than anywhere else (Miami I think?)
McNabb was way better in Philly than Washington and Minnesota
Vick was a way better passer in Philly than Atlanta...

Come on.

Are you really trying to knock your own coach to prove a point?

He's an awesome QB coach.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Kolb was way better in Philly than Arizona...
Feely was way better in Philly than anywhere else (Miami I think?)
McNabb was way better in Philly than Washington and Minnesota
Vick was a way better passer in Philly than Atlanta...

Come on.

Are you really trying to knock your own coach to prove a point?

He's an awesome QB coach.
He said he was good, just not a guru and I would agree with that. He's not freaking Bill Walsh.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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He said he was good, just not a guru and I would agree with that. He's not freaking Bill Walsh.
Name five coaches you think deserve the title QB guru over Reid.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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by the way maybe Andy Reid looked at all the QBs and the one he wants to develop is in the rd 3/4 neighborhood. He liked Foles about 2 rounds more than everyone else maybe he's got a target it's just not Geno and it's not in rd 2 either.
I hope that this is the case. I really do not like this move with Alex Smith. However...I really hope this isn't the only QB move they make. This is just me speaking, but if, like you say, Andy Reid is looking at a QB in the 3rd round and takes him with the intention that he'll develop him, then that will make me feel better about this move. For me, as I said in another thread, I wouldn't stop with Alex Smith. That's what got Scott Pioli fired. If I saw a starter 2 years down the road in a guy like Tyler Bray or EJ Manuel or whoever in the 3rd round, I'd pull the trigger. And I really hope that plays out. Because right now, at first blush, I can't really say much positive about the young tenures of Andy Reid and John Dorsey in KC. Things change in time of course. But right now, I don't feel very positive. It's a QB driven league. And the Chiefs may have to throw numbers at it until they hit.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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Name five coaches you think deserve the title QB guru over Reid.
That's dumb. Just because there may not 5 coaches right now that deserve that title it automatically falls to Reid. He's not as great as some of y'all make him out to be. He's a damn good coach but let's not pretend he had extended success with anyone but McNabb and McNabb was already washed up with Minny and Wash, so no **** he wouldn't be as good. Everyone else had spot starts and backups can look good when they only spot start a game or 2.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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Reid and Holmgren are known as the two most best QB coaches of this era. I can't believe I'm arguing this...

It's flat-out disrespect. Why was Reid the most sought-after HC candidate?

McNabb was a decent player and he had him winning the division and going to NFCCGs or SBs almost every single year.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Reid and Holmgren are known as the two most best QB coaches of this era. I can't believe I'm arguing this...

It's flat-out disrespect. Why was Reid the most sought-after HC candidate?

McNabb was a decent player and he had him winning the division and going to NFCCGs or SBs almost every single year.
What Harbugh did with Smith is FAR more impressive IMO. Trestman had Rich Gannon playing and a notch above elite in 2002. Gruden is damn good in that department as well. He elevated the level of play of Brad Johnson. You mentioned Holmgrem. Mariucci was able to hone the skills of a wild Brett Farve and made Jeff Garcia out of thin air. The point is, Reid is GOOD, but not any better than the best IMO.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:57 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs need to take a QB in the 3rd or 4th this year. Alex Smith isn't a long term solution. If someone like Barkley or Tyler Wilson fall to the 3rd, that should be a slam dunk no questions asked selection.

But they won't do it.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:57 PM    (permalink
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What Harbugh did with Smith is FAR more impressive IMO. Trestman had Rich Gannon playing and a notch above elite in 2002. Gruden is damn good in that department as well. He elevated the level of play of Brad Johnson. You mentioned Holmgrem. Mariucci was able to hone the skills of a wild Brett Farve and made Jeff Garcia out of thin air. The point is, Reid is GOOD, but not any better than the best IMO.
Thank you for giving me some names. At this point in time I'd rather have Reid than all of them except for Harbaugh obviously and maybe Holmgren.

So the disagreement here is about the word guru?

He's one of the top QB coaches of this era. Whether that's No. 1 or No. 6, it doesn't matter. He's consistently proven to get the best out his QBs. That is a fact. That's why the Chiefs hired him...

He's going to put Alex Smith in a position to succeed. WCO route combos, Charles out of the backfield. He's going to give Smith freedom at the LOS to do what he does best - read the D pre-snap. Will it ultimately result in Smith being as successful as he was in the run heavy, QB-friendly attack under Harbaugh? Probably not. But if there was any other system I'd want him in, it would be with Reid as a playcaller without a freaking doubt in my mind! That's not even arguable!
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:11 PM    (permalink
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Thank you for giving me some names. At this point in time I'd rather have Reid than all of them except for Harbaugh obviously and maybe Holmgren.

So the disagreement here is about the word guru?

He's one of the top QB coaches of this era. Whether that's No. 1 or No. 6, it doesn't matter. He's consistently proven to get the best out his QBs. That is a fact. That's why the Chiefs hired him...

He's going to put Alex Smith in a position to succeed. WCO route combos, Charles out of the backfield. He's going to give Smith freedom at the LOS to do what he does best - read the D pre-snap. Will it ultimately result in Smith being as successful as he was in the run heavy, QB-friendly attack under Harbaugh? Probably not. But if there was any other system I'd want him in, it would be with Reid as a playcaller without a freaking doubt in my mind! That's not even arguable!
That's great, just make sure that guy has an offensive line in front of him because Reid seems to think lineman come a dime a dozen. Also, don't worry about that 5th ranked rushing attack because Reid doesn't need that, especially inside the 10.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs need to take a QB in the 3rd or 4th this year. Alex Smith isn't a long term solution. If someone like Barkley or Tyler Wilson fall to the 3rd, that should be a slam dunk no questions asked selection.

But they won't do it.
Hell, they can't after they gave up that 2nd rounder.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
Hell, they can't after they gave up that 2nd rounder.
Well, technically, even after giving up that 2nd, they can still draft a QB in round 3 or 4. It's just unlikely that they will. I hope I'm wrong.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs need to take a QB in the 3rd or 4th this year. Alex Smith isn't a long term solution. If someone like Barkley or Tyler Wilson fall to the 3rd, that should be a slam dunk no questions asked selection.

But they won't do it.
Tyler Bray.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:32 PM    (permalink
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I'd be all about Tyler Bray, but the Chiefs can't afford to draft a QB if they use the draft to make lateral moves in the first two rounds.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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From another site. Terrific insight.
A number of issues with this. First, they're saying, "Oh look he started all 16 games and look how he did" without saying a lot of his missed games were as result of injury too.

They're also being silly by saying, "This is what he was asked to do." In reality, Alex Smith is asked to not throw it deep because his arm is crap and he can't make strong throws down field.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:46 PM    (permalink
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A number of issues with this. First, they're saying, "Oh look he started all 16 games and look how he did" without saying a lot of his missed games were as result of injury too.

They're also being silly by saying, "This is what he was asked to do." In reality, Alex Smith is asked to not throw it deep because his arm is crap and he can't make strong throws down field.
I didn't even read it to critique it really. Or draw any conclusions. It's just a history of his career with some context.

You can look at his stats but you don't remember who his coach was etc. etc.

And the interesting part was that he really did start to turn a corner. I like to see improvement from players. And if you take out his first 3-4 years as development years (which don't exist anymore, I know) and look at his career from 2009 on, it paints a way different picture.

I thought of him as a nothing until 2011, but the reality is that he did start to show signs in 2009 of big-time improvement. And he continued that each year.

And this year he had the 3rd best YPA in the NFL behind Kaep and RG3.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:49 PM    (permalink
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I didn't even read it to critique it really. Or draw any conclusions. It's just a history of his career with some context.

You can look at his stats but you don't remember who his coach was etc. etc.

And the interesting part was that he really did start to turn a corner. I like to see improvement from players. And if you take out his first 3-4 years as development years (which don't exist anymore, I know) and look at his career from 2009 on, it paints a way different picture.

I thought of him as a nothing until 2011, but the reality is that he did start to show signs in 2009 of big-time improvement. And he continued that each year.

And this year he had the 3rd best YPA in the NFL behind Kaep and RG3.
YPA is not purely an indicator of how good your arm is in the slightest.

And yes, he turned a corner from being a terrible QB to being a mediocre one. Big deal.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:51 PM    (permalink
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Tyler Bray.
I'd be all for Tyler Bray in the 3rd round even after giving up the second for A-Smith. That's the importance of the QB position. The Chiefs have drafted multiple defensive linemen in the same draft TWICE in the past 12 years or so. Why not do the same for QB? Especially given the circumstances surrounding Alex Smith and the importance of the position.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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I didn't even read it to critique it really. Or draw any conclusions. It's just a history of his career with some context.

You can look at his stats but you don't remember who his coach was etc. etc.

And the interesting part was that he really did start to turn a corner. I like to see improvement from players. And if you take out his first 3-4 years as development years (which don't exist anymore, I know) and look at his career from 2009 on, it paints a way different picture.

I thought of him as a nothing until 2011, but the reality is that he did start to show signs in 2009 of big-time improvement. And he continued that each year.

And this year he had the 3rd best YPA in the NFL behind Kaep and RG3.
..but only 6.1 yards at the point of catch, which was 23rd in the league among QBs with at least 100 attempts. Smith was the beneficiary of his receivers adding much more than most after the catch.
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