Who is the current OROTY?

[Cudders]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

I think if you ask the players who they'd rather face it would easily be Luck. And I also think folks here are really underestimating the decisions he has to make in a short time period. He has to decide whether to hand it off, keep it or throw depending on what the DE's do.

The decision-making required to run read option isn’t earth-shattering. There’s nothing to underestimate. There are college quarterbacks that can execute the same read option concepts that RGIII does. If the defensive end cheats to the runner, RGIII keeps it. If the defensive end freezes at the exchange, RGIII hands it off. On their packaged calls, if cornerbacks are sitting in off-coverage, RGIII gets it to the perimeter quick and lets his athletes work in space.

Nothing about that is complex. It’s a couple clear, this-or-that reads. Yes, he needs to be decisive in those situations to capitalize on defensive conflict, but decisiveness ≠ complicated decision-making.

(And before someone jumps on the college quarterback comment, it’s just speaking in terms of executing the same kind of reads. RGIII’s skill set separates him from them. He’s special because he’s capable of so much more.)

Originally Posted by jsagan77

Now the fact that he is so dangerous in every aspect of the game it turns into a pick your poison type situation and we have the D in check the entire game. One thing I take into consideration is that I know RG3 could run Lucks O but I'm not so sure Luck cld run RG3's.

This is conjecture. We don’t know that.

The Colts don’t have a running game to keep their offense on-schedule. When the Colts need to move the ball, it’s square on Andrew Luck’s shoulders. If there’s been a weakness of RGIII’s this season, it’s been third-and-long. When he’s been forced to operate within the confines of NFL structure, he’s struggled more. It’s not a knock. Most quarterbacks do.

But, as a rookie, I’ve watched Luck shred defenses on third-and-long. Against the Dolphins, the top third-down defense in the NFL at the time, he converted distances of twelve, fourteen, nine, twenty, ten, sixteen, and eleven. Against the Bills, he converted distances of eleven, eleven, eight, seventeen, eight, ten, and scrambled for fourteen to convert another 3rd & 8. I didn’t see the game against the Lions, but saw that he threw a touchdown on 3rd & 11 in the red zone. That’s being clinical in third-and-long.

As for the inverse, I am confident Luck would shine in a Shanahan offense. His athleticism fits with a lot of Shanahan’s concepts. It shouldn’t feature the run option element much, but Shanahan loves stretching defenses using athleticism at the quarterback position. I’m confident there would be a lot of bootlegs, rollouts, and moving the pocket. Just like I am confident RGIII would still have flashes of pure brilliance in Indianapolis’ offense. But, I think it’s fair to speculate that RGIII’s inexperience with intermediate concepts would suggest he doesn’t replicate his numbers from D.C. in Indianapolis.

As for the “ultimate weapon” talk, RGIII isn’t revolutionizing the quarterback position. If he becomes one of the all-time greats, it will be because he evolved into a phenomenal passer. Not because his 40-time is 4.3 and stuff. Because as much as an athlete like RGIII keeps defensive coordinators awake at night, cerebral drop-back passers like Luck give them nightmares. You might stress coverage discipline, gap integrities, and cage pursuit against someone like RGIII. But with someone like Luck, calling the game is much different. You have to design creative blitz packages and rotate through the rolodex of shells. Weave front seven pressure with back seven coverage. Give false pre-snap reads. You want to confuse them without tipping too much. When are the best disguises implemented within the game? Saved for the stretch? Or shown at the start? Knowing that the potential exists for them to be obsolete later in the game. It’s a constant struggle.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

And how do I know he cld run Lucks offense? Really? He's as smart as Luck, has a quicker release, stronger arm, better pocket presense. Why do you think he'd have trouble running Lucks O?

Two things:

1.) RGIII is a super smart kid, but Luck has heightened football awareness at this point. And it’s a direct function of Luck’s experience within a pro passing skeleton. Luck’s NFL-esque reps started at Stanford. Art Briles’ scheme, while successful at the collegiate level, is more all-or-nothing. It spreads defenses out, strikes them with quick-hitters in space, sticks with it until safeties get impatient, and then swings for the home run. It’s lighter on intermediate concepts and stick throws. It’s not RGIII’s fault. He’s just behind Luck’s curve right now in that department. And it’s a big part of NFL offenses.

2.) This is a discussion of proactive vs. reactive pocket presence. I would argue that Luck has better pocket presence, but RGIII’s gifts enable him to escape pressure even if he identifies it later.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

That is not a FACT.... It's been said here and people cherry picked a couple of plays but no one knows anything about the nuances that these guys must accomplish in their respective offenses. None of you sit in a film room with these guys or have their playbook or have any idea what is asked of them on each play. You guys assume and last I checked assumptions are not FACTS. Statistics are facts.. Metrics are facts... What context you'd like to add to them are in FACT--SUBJECTIVE...

Facts come with context. And not all facts illuminate the whole picture.

Fact 1: RGIII has a better completion percentage than Andrew Luck.
Fact 2: No quarterback in the NFL throws more passes behind the line of scrimmage than RGIII.

Fact 2 adds context to Fact 1. Most facts have subjective spin to them, too. Statistics can be deceiving. Football isn’t baseball. It can’t be simplified to just a few variables and quantified in a neat formula and used as the decider in debates. There’s too much going on.

As for the second claim, no, I haven’t been in the meeting room with either Luck or RGIII. But I’ve been around football long enough to recognize patterns and piece together consistent themes to build the rough framework of an offensive scheme. And, on that front, Luck’s scheme is more challenging for a rookie quarterback. More difficult throws, more intricate progressions, more responsibilities as a game manager, etc.

That’s one of his most remarkable qualities. How he manages the game. I hate the game-manager label not because it’s demeaning to lesser quarterbacks, but because managing the game is a trait of elite quarterbacking. As a rookie, Andrew Luck has been given great freedom at the line and input on overall offensive direction. When to speed things up, when to slow things down, what the defense is doing to him, what he needs to do in response, etc.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

In this race objectivity reigns supreme. Since RG3 doesn't throw a million times a game you have to look at who has the better ratio's, percentages, averages, etc.

The more quarterbacks throw, the harder it gets. So we can’t just extrapolate RGIII’s averages and percentages and assume the numbers were get would be an accurate representation.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

You guys are grasping at contextual evidence because there's no stat you can represent to validate your OPINIONS.

Andrew Luck is the first quarterback taken number one overall to lead his team to at least eight wins in the Super Bowl era. He’s also on-pace to eclipse the rookie passing record. And he’s manufactured five game-winning drives this season. Those stats, and all of the other things I’ve seen, give me reason to believe he’s the OROTY.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

Not to get side tracked but I went and watched every Luck completion I could find on Youtube and I'm still not seeing what you guys are. He's locking onto his primary's, waiting for plays to develop (not going through progressions), he's not calling audibles or adjusting too many protections at the LOS, he's hitting a lot of high percentage passes, and his receivers have made a TON of great plays. Luck looks amazing, and he's gonna be good, but everything that has been argued in his favor is being way overblown....

There’s two passes that have been plastered on ESPN from the Lions game alone. Down five with :52 left at his own 34 on 3rd & 1 and he drops a dime between three Detroit defenders. Then with less than :20 left and no timeouts, he delivers a laser in the back of the endzone that’s dropped. Even the eventual game-winner. The Colts called back-to-back trip receiver sets. Both times the trip set streaked to the endzone. If the inside window is there, it’s a touchdown, but that would take an error in defender presence given that situation. Then, on the final call, Indianapolis added the wrinkle of a crossing route. So the streaks became clear-outs (with LaVon Brazill doing an excellent job of pushing his route to the sideline to widen the running lane) and the dump-off did the job. I don’t know who made the call, but it was still good awareness on Luck’s part.

[Cardinal96]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

Not to get side tracked but I went and watched every Luck completion I could find on Youtube and I'm still not seeing what you guys are. He's locking onto his primary's, waiting for plays to develop (not going through progressions), he's not calling audibles or adjusting too many protections at the LOS, he's hitting a lot of high percentage passes, and his receivers have made a TON of great plays. Luck looks amazing, and he's gonna be good, but everything that has been argued in his favor is being way overblown....

jsagan77--

Before posting again, I would suggest you step back for a second, re-read this thread and your posts and ask yourself what you are trying to accomplish here. Both Luck and RG3 are having dominant rookie seasons. Both have exceeded expectations. Depending on what factors you choose to highlight, you can find good arguments for RG3 or Luck. This was debated on an ESPN show yesterday and both Hasselbeck and the other guest commentator favored Luck but admitted it was close.

From reading your posts, your mind is made up and your single focus appears to be browbeating people into agreeing with you that RG3 is clearly the best rookie of the year. People give long posts explaining why they think Luck is having an amazing season and offer different interpretations. You seem to ignore what they say and several times in this thread I have seen you call people clueless or claim they are effectively ignorant by not watching the games.

Everyone who comes to these forums watches a lot of football and is very knowledgeable about football. I am relatively ignorant about football compared to most posters. However, I am open-minded and willing to hear what everyone has to say. You will get a lot more mileage by becoming more open-minded. I don't think you realize how your posts can turn people off as you appear to have a clear agenda and no willingness to acknowledge the validity of what anyone else says.

[jsagan77]

I'm on my phone so I can't respond to everything now but this argument between Pro and College spread doesn't hold water anymore. Most teams are utilizing shotgun, spread type offenses in the NFL. The development and prevalence of the slot reciever and TE's becoming as effective as #1 recievers is no coincidemce and most of the concepts used have been developed from the college game. It's all about mismatches and clearing defenders out, completing high percentage passes and letting recievers work in space to get YAC. All the top passing teams spread the D out and Indy is no different. Arians uses a lot of 4 WR sets, always has. And the Read option at the NFL level is much more difficult than college. The speed of the game makes it ridiculously hard. Why do you think teams can't run it effectively? And the whole 'threw more passes behind the line' thing is by design. He also has the most TD passes of 25 yards or more but we wouldn't want to bring that up. It's all about #1 gaining confidence, #2 sucking up the D so you can hit them over the top.

[jsagan77]

I really disagre with your last paragraph. Most people that post on these forums watch red zone or their fav team every week or whats oncable. Most have no clue. They try tp use a lot of jargon and hyperbole to make their points but in most cases they're just making stuff up to sound smart or act like they have some intimate knowledge of certain situations and thay don't. Thid board used to have some top notch posters but has taken a nosedive in rescent years. This place is the extreme skins of the draft forum world. A lot of quantity but very little quality.

Originally Posted by Cardinal96

jsagan77--

Before posting again, I would suggest you step back for a second, re-read this thread and your posts and ask yourself what you are trying to accomplish here. Both Luck and RG3 are having dominant rookie seasons. Both have exceeded expectations. Depending on what factors you choose to highlight, you can find good arguments for RG3 or Luck. This was debated on an ESPN show yesterday and both Hasselbeck and the other guest commentator favored Luck but admitted it was close.

From reading your posts, your mind is made up and your single focus appears to be browbeating people into agreeing with you that RG3 is clearly the best rookie of the year. People give long posts explaining why they think Luck is having an amazing season and offer different interpretations. You seem to ignore what they say and several times in this thread I have seen you call people clueless or claim they are effectively ignorant by not watching the games.

Everyone who comes to these forums watches a lot of football and is very knowledgeable about football. I am relatively ignorant about football compared to most posters. However, I am open-minded and willing to hear what everyone has to say. You will get a lot more mileage by becoming more open-minded. I don't think you realize how your posts can turn people off as you appear to have a clear agenda and no willingness to acknowledge the validity of what anyone else says.

[njx9]

you're more than welcome to go elsewhere at any time. posting just to insult the entire board is highly, um, non-productive. moreso when some users who have disagreed with you have, outside of this thread, demonstrated FAR more actual understanding of the sport than you know.

[LonghornsLegend]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

I really disagre with your last paragraph. Most people that post on these forums watch red zone or their fav team every week or whats oncable. Most have no clue. They try tp use a lot of jargon and hyperbole to make their points but in most cases they're just making stuff up to sound smart or act like they have some intimate knowledge of certain situations and thay don't. Thid board used to have some top notch posters but has taken a nosedive in rescent years. This place is the extreme skins of the draft forum world. A lot of quantity but very little quality.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

Not to get side tracked but I went and watched every Luck completion I could find on Youtube ...

[Shane P. Hallam]

Some of the preseason odds if people are interested:
http://www.profootballaddicts.com/33...e-of-the-year/

[FUNBUNCHER]

Cudders where did you get the stat from that RGIII has thrown the most passes behind the LOS?? Just curious.

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend

I thought that I was missing something from the 7 games of his that I've watched this year. Sorry I'm working on my PhD, have a great job, run my own business, and have a family meaning that i'm so busy that I can't watch every game every week. I'd say I watch about 70% of the games though and one day I'll watch all of them every week.

That's not the point though. The point is that most people claim to have some intricate knowledge of the nuances of Luck and Griff but it's blatantly obvious that most people posting don't, myself included. I didn't pretend to know everything about these players, but I have seen enough of both of them to spot some BSery going on.

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by njx9

you're more than welcome to go elsewhere at any time. posting just to insult the entire board is highly, um, non-productive. moreso when some users who have disagreed with you have, outside of this thread, demonstrated FAR more actual understanding of the sport than you know.

I like this board as a change up from my normal skins board. Makes me appreciate them more. Also, I'm sticking around just to see if you ever make a relevant post. It's like searching for bigfoot. You hear they exist, there is proof (your strangely high +rep), but you never quite see one.

[njx9]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

I like this board as a change up from my normal skins board. Makes me appreciate them more. Also, I'm sticking around just to see if you ever make a relevant post. It's like searching for bigfoot. You hear they exist, there is proof (your strangely high +rep), but you never quite see one.

more personal attacks? nice.

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by njx9

more personal attacks? nice.

What exactly is your definition of a personal attack? That was an observation. You've posted no stats, no anlalysis, no nothing, just snide remarks and a lot of opinionated conjecture. I wan't attacking YOU, just your posts. It was just a statement of something I've percieved over the last few years and this thread in particular.

[Caulibflower]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

What exactly is your definition of a personal attack? That was an observation. You've posted no stats, no anlalysis, no nothing, just snide remarks and a lot of opinionated conjecture. I wan't attacking YOU, just your posts. It was just a statement of something I've percieved over the last few years and this thread in particular.

To echo Cardinal96... what are you trying to accomplish in this thread? This whole thread has become a contest between you and the rest of the board, and I'm not sure why, except perhaps that you think the discussion taking place in this thread actually affects who wins the award. I know you're from Washington, but this isn't an election.

[Saints-Tigers]

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER

Cudders where did you get the stat from that RGIII has thrown the most passes behind the LOS?? Just curious.

I haven't seen the stat logged anywhere, but I would bet it's true. I remember vividly in the game against the Saints, the first 5-6 passes didn't pass the LOS, and it wasn't checkdowns(to Griffin's credit), it was all designed.

[Cudders]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

I'm on my phone so I can't respond to everything now but this argument between Pro and College spread doesn't hold water anymore. Most teams are utilizing shotgun, spread type offenses in the NFL. The development and prevalence of the slot reciever and TE's becoming as effective as #1 recievers is no coincidemce and most of the concepts used have been developed from the college game. It's all about mismatches and clearing defenders out, completing high percentage passes and letting recievers work in space to get YAC. All the top passing teams spread the D out and Indy is no different. Arians uses a lot of 4 WR sets, always has.

Base doesn’t dictate concept though. The best offenses run their concepts out of multiple bases. In fact, the Redskins are no different in that regard. And there’s still a difference between standard college spreads and traditional NFL shotgun sets. There are exceptions, but most college spreads are still designed to give their quarterbacks the easiest throws and minimize exposure. It’s how some of these passing factories can plug a new quarterback into the offense without experiencing a drop-off. In the NFL, it’s more about isolating certain matchups and manipulating defenses with personnel groupings. That means more meticulous route combinations, more sight adjustments, more progressions, etc. In college, it’s not uncommon to limit quarterbacks with half-field reads. While those exist in the NFL, quarterbacks need to have some degree of backside validation.

Right now, Washington’s passing offense is unique. Just because Bruce Arians works a lot of shotgun into a game doesn’t mean it entails all of the same things. New Orleans features a lot of shotgun. But the Saints offense is quite different from the Redskins, too.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

And the Read option at the NFL level is much more difficult than college. The speed of the game makes it ridiculously hard. Why do you think teams can't run it effectively?

The first reason is most teams don’t have an athlete like RGIII at quarterback. The second reason is franchises don’t want their biggest assets getting pounded from week-to-week.

Yes, running read option in the NFL is harder because of the speed of the game. It is, however, much easier than lining up under center and attempting to dissect the amoeba defense of an aggressive coordinator. On a scale of decision-making responsibilities, running the read option ranks low on the list.

Originally Posted by jsagan77

And the whole 'threw more passes behind the line' thing is by design. He also has the most TD passes of 25 yards or more but we wouldn't want to bring that up. It's all about #1 gaining confidence, #2 sucking up the D so you can hit them over the top.

Yeah, it’s careful offensive design. And it’s smart coaching from the Redskins staff. It highlights what RGIII does best, puts him in a great position to build a confident base for his career, and acts as a stabilizer while he masters more advanced concepts. It also widens windows on some of those explosive gains.

As far as I’m concerned, RGIII is having one of the most impressive rookie seasons I’ve ever seen, so I don’t want it to seem like defending Luck is tearing RGIII down. In a normal season, he’s the landslide winner. He’s been pure class. He’s re-energized the Redskins and propelled them to postseason contention over two more favored rosters in his division. RGIII isn’t a talentless hack that is just tripping into his production. At the moment, he’s just unfortunate that his entrance to the NFL coincided with Luck’s.

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER

Cudders where did you get the stat from that RGIII has thrown the most passes behind the LOS?? Just curious.

It was on ESPN's post-game show for MNF.

[cmarq83]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

Sorry I'm working on my PhD, have a great job, run my own business, and have a family meaning that i'm so busy that I can't watch every game every week. I'd say I watch about 70% of the games though and one day I'll watch all of them every week.

Huh? Why are you all of a sudden talking about your personal life? Every time somebody is on a message board and starts spouting off things that in essence is like a high school student saying "my dick is bigger than your dick", it's really just a cover for an inability to make a coherent argument. I'll bite, so you're saying you have all that going on, yet still somehow find a way to watch ~30 hours of football a week?

Regardless, there are some great football posters on this board. None who are as good as me of course except Cudders. You'd do much better by trying to make counterpoints to their arguments by attempting to logically refute their points. Your condescending self-aggrandizing style really does nothing to further the debate, and just makes you look like a jackass.

[AntoinCD]

So to sum up this thread;

RG3 is the bestest ever because statzzzzz

Andrew Luck has more responsibilities thrust upon him

But completion %, TD/INT!!!!

Luck has to make more complex reads and more difficult throws

RG3 is faster, stronger, smarter than Luck

RG3 has one of the best run games to lean on which helps him use play action

RG3 is fast

Griffin makes easier reads based on how the scheme is set up

You don't know what you are talking about

Griffin throws one read slants and screens on straight drop backs

You have never watched a snap of football in your life and I have watched them all

Griffin is having a great year but a lot of that is helped by his scheme hiding his flaws

STATZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Griffin has the most amount of throws behind the LOS this year

RG3 is Jesus

In 3rd and long he struggles

You don't know what you're talking about

There's proof. Also RG3 throws an inordinate amount of play action passes which help him

Cannon arm and smartest man in the world

Luck took a historically bad team to being an almost lock for the playoffs

Skins were worse and the Colts got new coaches which means winzzzzzz


Ok, so now that we have gotten past that can't we all just get along???

EDIT: Let me clarify this by saying that I don't think it is ridiculous to believe RG3 should be rookie of the year, however a more clear cut argument, IMO, can be made for Luck

[njx9]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

What exactly is your definition of a personal attack? That was an observation. You've posted no stats, no anlalysis, no nothing, just snide remarks and a lot of opinionated conjecture. I wan't attacking YOU, just your posts. It was just a statement of something I've percieved over the last few years and this thread in particular.

your ENTIRE post was designed to suggest that i've posted nothing relevant/am not as smart as you seem to think you are. if you don't understand how that's a rather direct personal attack, then it'd likely be best if you followed my earlier advice and found a different board to post about rg3 on. if you continue to post in this thread, specifically, i can almost guarantee that you won't last much longer here.

[njx9]

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

EDIT: Let me clarify this by saying that I don't think it is ridiculous to believe RG3 should be rookie of the year, however a more clear cut argument, IMO, can be made for Luck

i don't think ANYONE has suggested that, in spite of some redskins' fans' belief that anyone who doesn't believe rg3 is literally the greatest qb in nfl history is an idiot who doesn't watch football.

[vidae]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

I like this board as a change up from my normal skins board. Makes me appreciate them more. Also, I'm sticking around just to see if you ever make a relevant post. It's like searching for bigfoot. You hear they exist, there is proof (your strangely high +rep), but you never quite see one.

So go post there. And, you know, not here.

[Grizzlegom]

I really hate living in DC. Local sports talk radio has moved passed RGIII vs. Luck because "its clear RGIII is vastly superior" and are now on to debating Luck vs. Wilson for "best of the rest."

[AntoinCD]

Originally Posted by njx9

i don't think ANYONE has suggested that, in spite of some redskins' fans' belief that anyone who doesn't believe rg3 is literally the greatest qb in nfl history is an idiot who doesn't watch football.

Yeah that's why I don't get all the anger in some of these posts. If you don't think Griffin is the greatest you have either never watched football or are a Redskins hater. Why is it so bad that some people think Luck is more deserving?

[njx9]

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

Yeah that's why I don't get all the anger in some of these posts. If you don't think Griffin is the greatest you have either never watched football or are a Redskins hater. Why is it so bad that some people think Luck is more deserving?

haven't the faintest, but it's sort of the echochamber effect on the internet. you see it every year with the '#1' pick in the draft. remember matt ryan? it wasn't quite this much anger directed at people, but there was a fair amount of vitriol on the pro and con side of taking him at 1. same with cam. less with luck, though a few people tried to start a late "rg3 for #1" push. *shrug*

i think it gets worse with nfl players, and moreso when people aren't used to having their opinion challenged by someone who's watched the same things and come to a different conclusion. so you either get rational arguments, or irate, irrational vitriol. *shrug* we see it now and then in the donkeys forum, for some reason.

[MetSox17]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

I thought that I was missing something from the 7 games of his that I've watched this year. Sorry I'm working on my PhD, have a great job, run my own business, and have a family meaning that i'm so busy that I can't watch every game every week. I'd say I watch about 70% of the games though and one day I'll watch all of them every week.
.

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by Caulibflower

To echo Cardinal96... what are you trying to accomplish in this thread? This whole thread has become a contest between you and the rest of the board, and I'm not sure why, except perhaps that you think the discussion taking place in this thread actually affects who wins the award. I know you're from Washington, but this isn't an election.

You know I'm from washington? Good to know. Was Honolulu acquired by DC recently?

What I was trying to get out of this thread is some logical views of the OROTY race. All i've gotten are made up stories and people saying stats don't mean anything(unless of course they HELP someone's argument).

RG3 is playing with a MASH unit (like 11 injuries and 2 suspensions) who had 18M less than anyone else to spend in FA (which makes it more impressive imo)

Comp% = RG3
TD:Int= RG3
Passer rating = RG3
YPA = RG3
Rushing yards = RG3
Rushing TD's = RG3
TD passes over 25 yds = RG3

Clutch performances = Tie


Passing yards, attempts, completions and incompletions = Luck
Winning % = Luck (though look at who they've played while Washington had to play the NFCE, NFCS, and AFCN.. 6-6 is more impressive in that context imo)

Both players are fantastic but I don't see how anyone can say Luck is superior to RG3? So many excuses are made as to why RG3 is performing when it's really because he's simply a great player.