No QB Selected in 1st Round - 1st Time in 17 Years

[IrishBrowns]

I bet there is atleast 2 or 3 QB's taken in Round 1 between Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Matt Glennon, Ryan Nassib.

[descendency]

I guarantee you that if a QB doesn't go top 15, one will go before the second round. Someone will try to jump back into round 1 to get their guy before the rest of the QB needy teams get them.

[Shupp]

What would you guys say the odds are of zero QB's in the 1st round? 2:2, 3:1, 4:1?

I wonder if Vegas will put a line on this. I truly believe this is the worst QB class I have ever seen since following the draft (2001). In 5 years zero QB's from the class will be starting in the NFL IMO. I can't believe Geno Smith is still considered a likelihood for a top 5 pick.

[JT Jag]

I am personally willing to provide 100:1 odds that zero quarterbacks are taken in the first round at this time.

Any takers, please note I will be expecting you to pay up after the draft.

[Caulibflower]

Originally Posted by JT Jag

I am personally willing to provide 100:1 odds that zero quarterbacks are taken in the first round at this time.

Any takers, please note I will be expecting you to pay up after the draft.

$5. Do you want to do this through paypal?

[JT Jag]

Sure. I'll provide an appropriate paypal account when the time is right.

[Shupp]

Originally Posted by JT Jag

Sure. I'll provide an appropriate paypal account when the time is right.

I'd also like to place a $5 bet

[Brothgar]

LOL if he loses we will never see JT Jags again.

[bucfan12]

I don't think we see the 2011 draft where guys like Locker, Gabbert and Ponder go within the top 15 picks.

I see Geno Smith possibly going round 1, and maybe Barkley being the other QB.

Kansas City trading for Alex Smith shows you they don't feel comfortable taking a QB in rounds 1 or 2 to groom as their starter. They feel more comfortable in Alex Smith for the time being and getting the younger guy down the road because this class is really, a huge question mark.

I think taking a QB in round 1 this year his very risky. There are guys with upside, such as EJ Manuel, Tyler Bray, and Mike Glennon. But they're not ready to see the field yet. Glennon has his struggles with consistency, pocket pressence, and handling pressure. Bray has the physical tools to be the #1 overal pick, but mentally, can he put it together? He's not as sharp as Cutler, but he's got the similar "don't give a crap attitude". Manuel is a guy I like, and think he can be a very good starter in the league. Like his intangibles, work ethic, and smarts, along with his physical tool set and accuracy, but question mark I have on him is, he'll miss some easy throws time to time. (yet, every QB does.) Didn't always necessarily play his best in big games either. One makes me think, competition he played, wasn't the strongest.

Geno Smith's question marks are was it the offense? QB friendly system where guys like Austin and Bailey took a lot of YAC for big plays and scores. Competition played, when against better defenses, he struggled.

I think the whole class is a huge question mark to tell you the truth. If the right situation persists, I can see a couple of these guys being starters effectively. But these 4, I don't think are anywhere near ready to see the field immediately.

Comparisons:
- Geno Smith: Aaron Brooks. Just the mechanics and playing style, just seems perfect comparison.
-Mike Glennon: Derek Anderson. Many want to throw the Flacco comparison. But the more I watch him, the more hesitant he seems making decisions. Innaccuracy. I liked that final drive against FSU. Was Flacco/Ryan like, where he just didn't flinch. But he doesn't have that all the time.

-Tyler Bray: Jay Cutler (but more of a bonehead. Atleast Cutler is smarter. I see Bray as questionable leadership, mental toughness during games, and some character questions off the field as well. ) Physically, his mechanics are inconsistent and will trust his arm too much.

EJ Manuel: I'm not sure I have an accurate comparison here. The guy is a leader, a winner, and his poise and confidence on the field and the way he plays, makes me want to make the Russell Wilson Comparison. Coming from a pro style offense, but has 4.6 speed, seems like he'd be a fit at whatever team wanted to do.

[bucfan12]

Since the 2011 draft, I'd rate the QB prospects as followed and how I had them in 2011 and 2012, to go along with 2013:
1. Andrew Luck
2. Colin Kaepernick (yes, I had him 1 in my 2011 class)
3. Russell Wilson (I said it before, if he were 6'3 he would have went top 5 in the draft last year)
4. RG III
5. Ryan Mallett (high on him in 2011. Still think he'd be a good QB in this league when he gets his shot.)
6. Andy Dalton
7. Cam Newton
8. EJ Manuel
9. Ryan Tanehill
10. Blaine Gabbert (I had some hopes for him, but I knew he was no where near ready to even enter the draft in 2011. This is one I can definately eat crow on).

[LonghornsLegend]

Originally Posted by Shupp

Small chance it actually happens.

Per Rotoworld:

Chiefs GM John Dorsey says there is no "clear-cut guy" at quarterback that has separated himself as a first-round pick.
"There is no quarterback where personnel guys can definitely say, 'He's a first-round pick,'" Dorsey said. "

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on NFL 32 Wednesday that the Raiders have interest in West Virginia QB Geno Smith with the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.

"Word around the NFL is the Raiders have interest in Geno Smith with that third overall pick in the draft," said Mort. "Now I can't get this confirmed by the team, but Geno Smith is a guy that everybody sees as a top-10 pick right now -- not everybody -- but he's got a chance to go in the top ten. And if the Raiders do like him, you better take him at No. 3." Mortensen indicated that Oakland would likely release Carson Palmer if Smith were drafted. Feb 27 - 5:46 PM

So which one do you want to believe?

[bucfan12]

Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend

So which one do you want to believe?

I've heard several reports indicating Oakland has strong interest in Smith. However, all the money and picks invested in Pryor (3rd round pick in supplemental draft), 1st and 2nd round pick and 13 million in Palmer, are they really going to take a chance on a questionable QB? Taking Smith at 3 means you're expecting an elite QB. I don't know if any of the QBs fit that bill. Honestly, I think EJ Manuel might be the best QB in the class.

[nepg]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

Since the 2011 draft, I'd rate the QB prospects as followed and how I had them in 2011 and 2012, to go along with 2013:
1. Andrew Luck
2. Colin Kaepernick (yes, I had him 1 in my 2011 class)
3. Russell Wilson (I said it before, if he were 6'3 he would have went top 5 in the draft last year)
4. RG III
5. Ryan Mallett (high on him in 2011. Still think he'd be a good QB in this league when he gets his shot.)
6. Andy Dalton
7. Cam Newton
8. EJ Manuel
9. Ryan Tanehill
10. Blaine Gabbert (I had some hopes for him, but I knew he was no where near ready to even enter the draft in 2011. This is one I can definately eat crow on).

I'd have had it...

1. Luck
2. Locker
3. RG3
4. Newton
5. Mallett
6. Kaepernick
7. Gabbert
8. Geno
9. Stanzi
10. Tannehill

[bucfan12]

Originally Posted by nepg

I'd have had it...

1. Luck
2. Locker
3. RG3
4. Newton
5. Mallett
6. Kaepernick
7. Gabbert
8. Geno
9. Stanzi
10. Tannehill

Hm, not like criticizing you or anything, but why Locker that high?

Me, I thought Locker was the right armed Tim Tebow. Poor Accuracy and more of the typical College back yard football style QB, you know, that wouldn't translate to the pros?

[bucfan12]

Matt Scott QB Arizona , is a sleeper pick. Intriguing prospect. Raw, but has the arm , accuracy, mobility, and quick release.

[Kof Moshiach]

Totally agree, I'm really hoping Jags draft Scott in the mid-rounds. Would prefer him later in draft than any of projected early round QB's.

[FUNBUNCHER]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

Hm, not like criticizing you or anything, but why Locker that high?

Me, I thought Locker was the right armed Tim Tebow. Poor Accuracy and more of the typical College back yard football style QB, you know, that wouldn't translate to the pros?

Why did you have Kaepernick as your 2nd overall best QB prospect and Cam Newton 7th, when Cam played against better competition and did everything better than CK did???

BTW I bought the hype about Locker too; great talent surrounded by a bad football team.

[Kof Moshiach]

Our new QB coach Frank Scelfo was the QB coach at Arizona from 2010-11, so nobody will have a greater feel for Scott then him.

[bucfan12]

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER

Why did you have Kaepernick as your 2nd overall best QB prospect and Cam Newton 7th, when Cam played against better competition and did everything better than CK did???

BTW I bought the hype about Locker too; great talent surrounded by a bad football team.

I thought Newton was more of the Vince Young type QB coming out of Auburn, but more physical and bigger arm. Saw too much diva and didn't like him as a successful QB prospect.

Seeing Kaepernick, he was just a hidden gem. Yes, he was a great athlete with 4.5 speed, but I see the accuracy, and progressions he made, and just the way he presented himself. I saw the "no flinch" poise and he displayed that this year, in the two biggest stages down in both the NFC title game and Super Bowl.

I think Cam needed an extra year in college to develop as a passer and to mature, the same as Vince Young. But I just didn't see the style Cam Newton played, translating to the pros.

[Shupp]

Originally Posted by Brothgar

LOL if he loses we will never see JT Jags again.

Yeah pretty sure his account gets closed if he had to look down the barrel of a $1,000 tab. Can you imagine how nervous he would be getting at pick 15? LOL I would pay good money just to see him sweat it out.

[Shupp]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

I've heard several reports indicating Oakland has strong interest in Smith. However, all the money and picks invested in Pryor (3rd round pick in supplemental draft), 1st and 2nd round pick and 13 million in Palmer, are they really going to take a chance on a questionable QB? Taking Smith at 3 means you're expecting an elite QB. I don't know if any of the QBs fit that bill. Honestly, I think EJ Manuel might be the best QB in the class.

Exactly right regarding Oakland here, I can't see Oakland pulling that trigger. Oakland is the most likely team to trade back if they can get even a decent offer.

The only team I see desperate enough to draft a QB in round 1 is AZ. Which will ensure that their team stays at the bottom of the division for a couple more years...lol

[Shupp]

Here are the results from the 1996 NFL draft. It will be nearly impossible to break this record (#42 overall for 1st QB to be selected)

Round 1
1. N.Y. Jets - Keyshawn Johnson, WR Southern California
2. Jacksonville - Kevin Hardy, OLB Illinois
3. Arizona - Simeon Rice, DE Illinois
4. Baltimore - Jonathan Ogden, T UCLA
5. N.Y. Giants - Cedric Jones, DE Oklahoma
6. St. Louis - Lawrence Phillips, RB Nebraska
7. New England - Terry Glenn, WR Ohio State
8. Carolina - Tim Biakabutuka, RB Michigan
9. Oakland - Rickey Dudley, TE Ohio State
10. Cincinnati - Willie Anderson, T Auburn
11. New Orleans - Alex Molden, CB Oregon
12. Tampa Bay - Regan Upshaw, DE California
13. Chicago - Walt Harris, CB Mississippi State
14. Houston - Eddie George, RB Ohio State
15. Denver - John Mobley, OLB Kutztown, Pa.
16. Minnesota - Duane Clemons, DE California
17. Detroit - Reggie Brown, LB Texas A&M
18. St. Louis - Eddie Kennison, WR Louisiana State
19. Indianapolis - Marvin Harrison, WR Syracuse
20. Miami - Daryl Gardener, DT Baylor
21. Seattle - Pete Kendall, G Boston College
22. Tampa Bay - Marcus Jones, DE North Carolina
23. Detroit - Jeff Hartings, C Penn State
24. Buffalo - Eric Moulds, WR Mississippi State
25. Philadelphia - Jermane Mayberry, G Texas A&M-Kingsville
26. Baltimore - Ray Lewis, ILB Miami
27. Green Bay - John Michels, T Southern California
28. Kansas City - Jerome Woods, FS Memphis
29. Pittsburgh - Jamain Stephens, T North Carolina A&T
30. Washington - Andre Johnson, T Penn State

Round 2
31. N.Y. Jets - Alex Van Dyke, WR Nevada
32. Arizona - Leeland McElroy, RB Texas A&M
33. Jacksonville - Tony Brackens, DE Texas
34. N.Y. Giants - Amani Toomer, WR Michigan
35. Tampa Bay - Mike Alstott, FB Purdue
36. New England - Lawyer Milloy, SS Washington
37. Dallas - Kavika Pittman, DE McNeese State
38. Houston - Bryant Mix, DE Alcorn State
39. Cincinnati - Marco Battaglia, TE Rutgers
40. New Orleans - Je'Rod Cherry, SS California
41. San Diego - Bryan Still, WR Virginia Tech
42. St. Louis - Tony Banks, QB Michigan State

Note: I also added this to the thread opener.

[Shupp]

Not a bad draft for BAL...geesh

[gpngc]

Originally Posted by Shupp

Here are the results from the 1996 NFL draft. It will be nearly impossible to break this record (#42 overall for 1st QB to be selected)

Round 1
1. N.Y. Jets - Keyshawn Johnson, WR Southern California
2. Jacksonville - Kevin Hardy, OLB Illinois
3. Arizona - Simeon Rice, DE Illinois
4. Baltimore - Jonathan Ogden, T UCLA
5. N.Y. Giants - Cedric Jones, DE Oklahoma
6. St. Louis - Lawrence Phillips, RB Nebraska
7. New England - Terry Glenn, WR Ohio State
8. Carolina - Tim Biakabutuka, RB Michigan
9. Oakland - Rickey Dudley, TE Ohio State
10. Cincinnati - Willie Anderson, T Auburn
11. New Orleans - Alex Molden, CB Oregon
12. Tampa Bay - Regan Upshaw, DE California
13. Chicago - Walt Harris, CB Mississippi State
14. Houston - Eddie George, RB Ohio State
15. Denver - John Mobley, OLB Kutztown, Pa.
16. Minnesota - Duane Clemons, DE California
17. Detroit - Reggie Brown, LB Texas A&M
18. St. Louis - Eddie Kennison, WR Louisiana State
19. Indianapolis - Marvin Harrison, WR Syracuse
20. Miami - Daryl Gardener, DT Baylor
21. Seattle - Pete Kendall, G Boston College
22. Tampa Bay - Marcus Jones, DE North Carolina
23. Detroit - Jeff Hartings, C Penn State
24. Buffalo - Eric Moulds, WR Mississippi State
25. Philadelphia - Jermane Mayberry, G Texas A&M-Kingsville
26. Baltimore - Ray Lewis, ILB Miami
27. Green Bay - John Michels, T Southern California
28. Kansas City - Jerome Woods, FS Memphis
29. Pittsburgh - Jamain Stephens, T North Carolina A&T
30. Washington - Andre Johnson, T Penn State

Round 2
31. N.Y. Jets - Alex Van Dyke, WR Nevada
32. Arizona - Leeland McElroy, RB Texas A&M
33. Jacksonville - Tony Brackens, DE Texas
34. N.Y. Giants - Amani Toomer, WR Michigan
35. Tampa Bay - Mike Alstott, FB Purdue
36. New England - Lawyer Milloy, SS Washington
37. Dallas - Kavika Pittman, DE McNeese State
38. Houston - Bryant Mix, DE Alcorn State
39. Cincinnati - Marco Battaglia, TE Rutgers
40. New Orleans - Je'Rod Cherry, SS California
41. San Diego - Bryan Still, WR Virginia Tech
42. St. Louis - Tony Banks, QB Michigan State

Note: I also added this to the thread opener.

17/42. Yuck. And half of the non-busts in a given year end up only going 3 years for the team that drafts them.

Draft picks are more like lottery tickets than we think.

[nepg]

That draft was so loaded...