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View Poll Results: Where will Alex Smith be next season
Buffalo 5 4.63%
Cleveland 10 9.26%
Kansas City 47 43.52%
Jacksonville 6 5.56%
Arizona 25 23.15%
NY Jets 10 9.26%
Other: Who 5 4.63%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-30-2013, 09:04 PM    (permalink
ViperVisor
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
This team is way more explosive and dangerous with Colin. That's why Harbaugh was waiting for any reason to put him in there. Colin isn't even a GREAT player yet, and he's still a big upgrade.
The numbers showed the offense being the same or slightly better with Smith in the regular season. It didn't have ESPN simpleton buzzwords or highlights to go with it but the football was moving down the field and into the endzone.

Smith and Kaepernick both attempted 218 passes.

Kaepernick had 8 more passes in the 1st Half
Smith had 50 more passes in the 1st Half

Smith is consistent and while the scoreboard isn't lit on fire very often it was usually enough to secure a lead late in games.

Kaepernick is inconsistent and that is why NOLA hung around for most of that game, STL was never put away and stole a W, MIA hung around till the final minute, ARZ was in the game in the 3rd Quarter.

Harbaugh and Kaepernick are good but just as much lucky with how this has worked out to this point.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:12 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
Aldon Smith started ZERO games in 2011. Parys Haralson started at OLB.
Oh come on man. He had 14 sacks. and 1 in each post season game. Conveniently worded, but lets not act like he's not a huge addition to the team from 2010 to 2011.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
Phlysac, honest question. I want to go more into the "product of the system" thing. Do you feel like the line gelling, and the defense improving from pre-Harbaugh is more Harbaugh being able to coach and implement a strong system than just natural maturation as players?
I wouldn't say the "system" is the winner. I see it more as an issue where the coaches actually implement scheme and philosophy that gets the most out its talent. Harbaugh and company have tailored their offensive and defensive "systems" to fit the skill-set of their players. Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary were stubborn, offensively-challenged dictators whom forced their philosophies regardless of whether it was working or not.

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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
I think a lot of people could see the 9ers were really talented for years, and guys like Mike Iupati were still growing,
And many of these talented players were underachieving and/or wallowing under poor coaching. Why is it impossible to consider Alex Smith to be one of these players as welll?

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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
and then they added a DOMINANT pass rusher to an already strong front 7, etc.
That hasn't had a sack all playoffs yet are in the Super Bowl. It's more than just a dominant pass rush. The 49ers ranked 8th in the League in sacks.

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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
Alex Smith is obviously better than he used to be, but with their protection, running game, and Vernon Davis, I felt like the offense had more potential than it was showing, and Alex Smith's timidness was a big part of the problem, either that, or the coaching staff didn't trust him enough to really let him push the ball downfield.
The running game under Singletary was repulsively predictable and resulted in a ridiculous amount of 3rd and longs.

I agree that Smith isn't an aggressive gunslinger. This has been both a pro and a con. However, with the O-Lines he played with and QB killing coaches he'd experienced it doesn't surprise me that he became efficient. However, as he got more experienced with Harbaugh, Smith slowly became more aggressive (unlearning 5 years of conservatism) and was actually nearing the top part of the League in YPA.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:29 PM    (permalink
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All the mentions of Vernon Davis like he is the Calvin Johnson of TEs.

He has 40 career TDs. Even with the time Smith missed he threw 30 of those TDs. +4 more in the playoffs.

He is still not a natural fit for pass routes and catching. He gets it done mostly with his sheer physical talent.

Top 12 in QB Rate the past 2 years.

1 Aaron Rodgers
2 Peyton Manning
3 Drew Brees
4 Tom Brady
5 Tony Romo
6 Matt Ryan
7 Alex Smith
8 Ben Roethlisberger
9 Matt Schaub
10 Eli Manning
11 Philip Rivers
12 Matthew Stafford

Are you really gonna put Smith's options to throw to in that time over more than 1 or 2 of those guys?
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:31 PM    (permalink
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The numbers showed the offense being the same or slightly better with Smith in the regular season. It didn't have ESPN simpleton buzzwords or highlights to go with it but the football was moving down the field and into the endzone.

Smith and Kaepernick both attempted 218 passes.

Kaepernick had 8 more passes in the 1st Half
Smith had 50 more passes in the 1st Half

Smith is consistent and while the scoreboard isn't lit on fire very often it was usually enough to secure a lead late in games.

Kaepernick is inconsistent and that is why NOLA hung around for most of that game, STL was never put away and stole a W, MIA hung around till the final minute, ARZ was in the game in the 3rd Quarter.

Harbaugh and Kaepernick are good but just as much lucky with how this has worked out to this point.

The 49ers were 26th in total yards last year, and 11th this year.

This season:

In 9 games this year with Smith, the 49ers averaged 23.6 points per game, and 365 yards per game.

In 9 games with Kaep, the 49ers averaged 28.6 Points per game, and 383 yards per game.

If you extrapolate over 16 games, Smith's 23.6 average would make them the 15th best scoring team in the league, and with Kaepernick's 28.6 makes them the 4th best. That is a HUGE difference. The team scored a LOT more points since switching to Kaepernick.

Kaepernick has shown flashes of greatness, though inconsistently. Anyone have Kaepernick as a top 10 QB? If moving from Smith to someone that isn't elite makes you go from 15th to top 5, I tend to think Smith is a big part of the reason they were mediocre in that regard.

The record took a step back this season, but this is a more explosive and dangerous offense, by the eye test, the stat test, and the "they are in the superbowl" test.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:33 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by WinslowBodden View Post
No one is saying that, but the argument that Alex Smith isn't a viable quarterback is stupid as ****.
He's definitely viable but he's also definitely limited. And i think these limitations will stop him from being a long-term starter for any 1 team.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:36 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
The 49ers were 26th in total yards last year, and 11th this year.

This season:

In 9 games this year with Smith, the 49ers averaged 23.6 points per game, and 365 yards per game.

In 9 games with Kaep, the 49ers averaged 28.6 Points per game, and 383 yards per game.

If you extrapolate over 16 games, Smith's 23.6 average would make them the 15th best scoring team in the league, and with Kaepernick's 28.6 makes them the 4th best. That is a HUGE difference. The team scored a LOT more points since switching to Kaepernick.

Kaepernick has shown flashes of greatness, though inconsistently. Anyone have Kaepernick as a top 10 QB? If moving from Smith to someone that isn't elite makes you go from 15th to top 5, I tend to think Smith is a big part of the reason they were mediocre in that regard.

The record took a step back this season, but this is a more explosive and dangerous offense, by the eye test, the stat test, and the "they are in the superbowl" test.
Regular season apples to apples comparison.

Regular season.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:42 PM    (permalink
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True. We should throw out two postseason games where it would be easier to stat pad.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:43 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ViperVisor View Post
Regular season apples to apples comparison.

Regular season.
Interesting information. But we should also take into account sack totals (not sure who that favors) and rushing yardage. It just seems like as a 49ers fan, the offense looks a lot more explosive with Kaepernick inserted. That's not to slight Alex, he's a good player. In limited action thought Kaepernick seems like he has better instincts and better accuracy + velocity on his throws. The first few starts were shaky, but he's gotten better. Plus he's always a threat to break one loose. The defense has to account for a lot more with Kaepernick in there. I don't think raw numbers tell the entire story here.
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Old 01-30-2013, 09:57 PM    (permalink
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Interesting information. But we should also take into account sack totals (not sure who that favors) and rushing yardage. It just seems like as a 49ers fan, the offense looks a lot more explosive with Kaepernick inserted. That's not to slight Alex, he's a good player. In limited action thought Kaepernick seems like he has better instincts and better accuracy + velocity on his throws. The first few starts were shaky, but he's gotten better. Plus he's always a threat to break one loose. The defense has to account for a lot more with Kaepernick in there. I don't think raw numbers tell the entire story here.

Sacks. 1/4th of the sacks he took were when the team was up 2 or 3 scores. 3 @ GB and 3 @ AZ.
I did a quick search and I see 0 sacks like this for Karpernick.
He had been sacked a few times before this season so he is used to it and with a lead and the pass not open he is OK eating a sack.
You'd rather he find someone or make a play, sure, but also happy he doesn't pull a Romo or Rivers and piss a Win away with moronic decisions.

True the chunk of yards plays happened more with Colin but overall the offense was no better than what Smith did.
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Old 01-30-2013, 10:08 PM    (permalink
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What's viable? Can be passable on the most stacked team in the league? You could probably plug him into the Patriots after they went 16-0 and go 10-6!!!

This team is way more explosive and dangerous with Colin. That's why Harbaugh was waiting for any reason to put him in there. Colin isn't even a GREAT player yet, and he's still a big upgrade.
Viable as in he would probably come into Cleveland and be a massive improvement over Weeden, as he would be in many other spots.

Your argument is that Alex Smith sucks, but in reality he's better than at LEAST 10 of the quarterbacks in the league, if not 15. That's half the NFL, and he was playing amazing this year before injury. I don't get the hatred towards him, yeah Kaepernick has played well, but how does his success make Alex Smith a bad QB?

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He's definitely viable but he's also definitely limited. And i think these limitations will stop him from being a long-term starter for any 1 team.
Try watching the Browns quarterbacking the past 15 years and talk to me about having a long term starter, Smith would instantly be the best QB we have had since coming back, and sadly it wouldn't be close.
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Old 01-30-2013, 10:56 PM    (permalink
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It's kind of funny how many of the people in this thread arguing in favor of Alex Smith are the same posters I've noticed that suck at evaluating college quarterbacks. I wonder what that says about them.....
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:36 AM    (permalink
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It's kind of funny how many of the people in this thread arguing in favor of Alex Smith are the same posters I've noticed that suck at evaluating college quarterbacks. I wonder what that says about them.....
Jay Cutler has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 5352 yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs. Y/A 7.4 and 7.0. 61 times sacked.

Alex Smith has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 4881 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs. Y/A 7.1 and 8.0. 68 times sacked.

Jay Cutler would get no argument from most as being a legitimate NFL starting QB. Alex Smith does. I'd rather have Alex Smith as my starting QB than Jay Cutler. But, then again, I'm just a blind homer.

And you, a blind hater.

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Old 01-31-2013, 06:44 AM    (permalink
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Regular season.
Means nothing apparently, at all.

I don't think anyone arguing that Smith would be an upgrade for about 8-10 QB's have said at all that he should be playing over Kaepernick. Obviously CK is the new wave, and as long as he has that foot speed, he's dangerous.

But to call Smith crappy, say he sucks, to say he's just a product of the system, to say he is incapable of winning a Super Bowl etc, that's just juvenile garbage talk. True, there are only a few punks here who said such a thing though.

Of course, he's often the same one who said Flacco sucks, can't win a big game, etc.
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Old 01-31-2013, 06:56 AM    (permalink
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Jay Cutler has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 5352 yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs. Y/A 7.4 and 7.0. 61 times sacked.

Alex Smith has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 4881 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs. Y/A 7.1 and 8.0. 68 times sacked.

Jay Cutler would get no argument from most as being a legitimate NFL starting QB. Alex Smith does. I'd rather have Alex Smith as my starting QB than Jay Cutler. But, then again, I'm just a blind homer.

And you, a blind hater.
But Smith is just a game manager, Cutler is an actual QB that makes play. His eight yards per game more over the past three seasons proves that beyond the shadow of a doubt.

If you need more proof that Cutler isn't just a game manager, look at how bad his defense and running game have been in relation to Smith's. The Bears were 4th, 14th, and 3rd in scoring defense for those three years while the 49ers were 16th, 2nd, and 2nd. The Bears running game was 22nd, 9th, and 10th. The 49ers were 19th, 8th, and 4th. Massive differences.
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Old 01-31-2013, 07:12 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by farfromforgotten View Post
Jay Cutler has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 5352 yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs. Y/A 7.4 and 7.0. 61 times sacked.

Alex Smith has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 4881 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs. Y/A 7.1 and 8.0. 68 times sacked.

Jay Cutler would get no argument from most as being a legitimate NFL starting QB. Alex Smith does. I'd rather have Alex Smith as my starting QB than Jay Cutler. But, then again, I'm just a blind homer.

And you, a blind hater.
Over the past two seasons Jay Cutler had the worst offensive line and Alex Smith had one of the best o lines in the league and half those years Cutler had a vastly worse set of pass catchers. Yet they are similar statistically and in terms of yards Cutler has been highly superior.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 01-31-2013, 07:24 AM    (permalink
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But Smith is just a game manager, Cutler is an actual QB that makes play. His eight yards per game more over the past three seasons proves that beyond the shadow of a doubt.

If you need more proof that Cutler isn't just a game manager, look at how bad his defense and running game have been in relation to Smith's. The Bears were 4th, 14th, and 3rd in scoring defense for those three years while the 49ers were 16th, 2nd, and 2nd. The Bears running game was 22nd, 9th, and 10th. The 49ers were 19th, 8th, and 4th. Massive differences.
#1 O line in the NFL vs the #30 line.

Greg Roman vs Mike Martz & a guy who'd never called a single play at any level.

Jim Harbaugh vs Lovie Smith.

Offensive head coach vs a head coach who visibly cringes when you make him talk about it.

If Mike Tice had called passes like Scott Linehan, Cutler'd have a 5000 yard season.

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Old 01-31-2013, 08:18 AM    (permalink
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Really the Niners O-line isn't #1 in pass pro. We have a great O-line for rushing but when it comes to pass pro they aren't as good.
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Old 01-31-2013, 08:20 AM    (permalink
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#1 O line in the NFL vs the #30 line.

Greg Roman vs Mike Martz & a guy who'd never called a single play at any level.

Jim Harbaugh vs Lovie Smith.

Offensive head coach vs a head coach who visibly cringes when you make him talk about it.

If Mike Tice had called passes like Scott Linehan, Cutler'd have a 5000 yard season.
And all these are valid excuses for Cutler, I actually agree that they are, but they were not valid excuses for Smith from 2007-2010? Do you think Cutler would improve with better players and better coaching? If yes, doesn't that make him a product of the system just like Smith? People say the same thing about Philip Rivers. He only sucks now because his team sucks. Get some good players around him and he will be good again. Why is it that every other QB is just reaching their potential when they play better with better players but Smith is a system QB?

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Over the past two seasons Jay Cutler had the worst offensive line and Alex Smith had one of the best o lines in the league and half those years Cutler had a vastly worse set of pass catchers. Yet they are similar statistically and in terms of yards Cutler has been highly superior.
Cutler was actually better last year when he didn't have Marshall. And Cutler has 20 more passing yards per game than Smith. Hardly highly superior, especially given that he attempts a few more passes per game than Smith.

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Old 01-31-2013, 08:21 AM    (permalink
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Really the Niners O-line isn't #1 in pass pro. We have a great O-line for rushing but when it comes to pass pro they aren't as good.
They are still very good in pass protection. I agree they are by far the best run blocking offensive line but in pass protection they are definitely top half of the league.
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Old 01-31-2013, 08:42 AM    (permalink
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Why is it so hard for people to isolate the performance of an individual player, especially the QB, from the rest of the team?

For Gods' sake, look at the 49ers roster. It is the best in the NFL (outside of the QB): the best OL, one of the best defenses. Alex Smith is a middling starter at best who was made to look incredibly efficient on that team because of a defense that shut down opposing offenses and gave the ball back to the offense in great field position, and an offensive line that simply man-handled every defense they went up against except for the New York Giants and the St Louis Rams.

If you think Alex Smith is going to replicate his performance on any other team, then you are sadly mistaken, unless Alex Smith also takes Mike Iupati, Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, and Alex Boone along with him, and maybe Vernon Davis and Frank Gore as well.

Again, Alex Smith is not *terrible*, in that he can be an efficient game-manager on a team with a great offensive line and a great defense. But you had better have a great offensive line and a great defense if you decide to sign him or, even worse, trade valuable picks for him.

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Old 01-31-2013, 09:03 AM    (permalink
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That is true for Cutler.

Also true for Smith the O-Line wasn't good or even average until 2012.

Kaepernick stepped into the starting role with the O-Line ready for prime-time vs. Chicago who sooner rather than later gave up and were sleep rushing the QB.

People remember 'oh yeah Colin escaped the rush and found Crabtree for a TD'
The rush never came the pocket held up and him moving to the left actually got closer to some Bears defenders.

Game was very similar to the Buffalo game. The offense around the QB was on point and the competition looked they were scab players. Smith had a 156.2 rating without breaking a sweat.

Cutler probably would of done the same.
Problem is when Cutler is beat physically he doesn't recognize it and will do his dodge ball chuck and before it even happens you can call it when watching on TV "picked!".
Smith was beaten down for years trying to push through a wall by himself early in his career. And now leans a lot on mental side of the game.

Not gonna dominate the NFL or be a franchise epicenter like was hoped as a #1 pick years ago but can win games with that.
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Old 01-31-2013, 09:30 AM    (permalink
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a defense that shut down opposing offenses and gave the ball back to the offense in great field position, and an offensive line that simply man-handled every defense they went up against except for the New York Giants and the St Louis Rams.
Does offense not get some credit for this?
If a QB turns the ball over at mid-field and if the defense stops them dead the punt will put at team at the 20 or worse.
If a QB doesn't turn the ball over they get a 1st down or 2 but still come up short of a FG a punt will back the other team up.
Then if the Defense forces a 3 and out the offense is given good position.

2011 NE and GB defenses were giving up yards all over the place but starting Field Position for both was in the top 10. Because the QBs didn't give away the ball putting the Defense in a bad spot.

The deference between IND and SF in 2011 was 10 yards. Starting on the 23 vs 33. Is that really turning a QBs fortune around? Spot Sanchez or Gabbert 10 yards and things are going to change that much?

Dalton, Eli, Cutler and ARZ were all were top 5 along with SF in Field Position this year.

Not exactly the best results this year from those QBs.

The Jets were great at this in 2010-2011
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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Well, Alex Smith will get a starting shot somewhere next season, we'll find out likely after the draft. KC, Jacksonville, Arizona, Buffalo, or the New York Jets are all likely destinations. Whichever team fails to get a QB in the draft will look to sign him.,
Will he be a great QB, not likely, but he is solid and won't embarrass a team either.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:33 AM    (permalink
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#1 O line in the NFL vs the #30 line.

Greg Roman vs Mike Martz & a guy who'd never called a single play at any level.

Jim Harbaugh vs Lovie Smith.

Offensive head coach vs a head coach who visibly cringes when you make him talk about it.

If Mike Tice had called passes like Scott Linehan, Cutler'd have a 5000 yard season.
No one was talking about our O-Line before this season so that is a 2012 stat. And our O-Line rankings before this year backup that assertion. You guys act like Alex played behind this excat line his entire career. The same Rachal that stunk it up for your Bears this year, was our second round pick in 2008. I had to sit through him stinking it up for us, for several years. Iupati and Anthony Davis didn't excatly hit the ground running either. There were some growing pains to deal with. And don't even get me started on the lines he played on before then. Best O-Line Alex had was that 2006 group, which was coincidently, one of his best years as a pro. Even if the numbers don't bare it out. But he passed the eye test that year, no question. He looked a kid who had a bright future.

Half you didn't know G-Ro from a hole in a wall until this year. You mean the same Martz who was our OC in 2007? So yeah been there, bought the t-shirt. Every year Alex has had a solid OC, he has done well. Prior to 2011, it was only the 2006 season when Norv was here. If you saw how horrible Alex looked as a rookie, and then saw how much potential he displayed in his second year, you would know just how great of a job Turner did with Alex. Its no coincidence that his best years have come with comptent offensive coaching on the staff.

Lovie Smith is a helluva coach. Jim Harbaugh is a helluva coach. One has expertise in offense. The other has a expertise in defense. Of course I think any QB would love playing for a offensive guy. But other than that, I don't really see the point there. Cutler has sufferedd through bad coordinators. Alex has suffered through bad coordinators. It is what it is. All that means is coaching is important, which is what most Pro-Alex posters in this topic have been saying. Cutler is going through the same thing Alex was going through earlier in his career. Different OC's, different schemes, bad O-Line play equals mixed results. Alex never had a weapon like Marshall to throw to on the outside though. And no VD doesnt count because VD was raw and widly inconsistent his first four years in the league.


IMO, there are ony two places that make sense for Alex Smith. The key for getting the most out of Alex Smith is solid offensive coaching. #1 on his short list should be KC. He'd be leaving one WCO for another, so the turnover from a schematic standpoint wouldn't be that great. He'd be going into his 3rd year in the WCO. I mean think about that for a second. Alex almost lead us to a SB, his first year in the WCO, a offense that generally takes 3 years to really get your footing and start to actually know the ins and outs of the scheme. I think Reid already being a great QB coach would be perfect for Alex to maximize his abilities.

2nd on his list should be the Brown's, strictly because of Turner. They have histroy. Turner got the best out of a young 21 year old, second year QB and actually made him looked like he would amount to something. And I doubt Turner is on anybodys HC list for the forseeable future so it should be a marriage of OC and QB for some time, which would benefit Alex the most by standing in the same scheme for a period of time. But there is the fact that he would have to re-learn the Coryell offense and would be, yet again, another change in his career. But a good change this time though.
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