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View Poll Results: Where will Alex Smith be next season
Buffalo 5 4.63%
Cleveland 10 9.26%
Kansas City 47 43.52%
Jacksonville 6 5.56%
Arizona 25 23.15%
NY Jets 10 9.26%
Other: Who 5 4.63%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-31-2013, 12:16 PM    (permalink
abaddon41_80
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Why is it so hard for people to isolate the performance of an individual player, especially the QB, from the rest of the team?

For Gods' sake, look at the 49ers roster. It is the best in the NFL (outside of the QB): the best OL, one of the best defenses. Alex Smith is a middling starter at best who was made to look incredibly efficient on that team because of a defense that shut down opposing offenses and gave the ball back to the offense in great field position, and an offensive line that simply man-handled every defense they went up against except for the New York Giants and the St Louis Rams.

If you think Alex Smith is going to replicate his performance on any other team, then you are sadly mistaken, unless Alex Smith also takes Mike Iupati, Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, and Alex Boone along with him, and maybe Vernon Davis and Frank Gore as well.

Again, Alex Smith is not *terrible*, in that he can be an efficient game-manager on a team with a great offensive line and a great defense. But you had better have a great offensive line and a great defense if you decide to sign him or, even worse, trade valuable picks for him.
No one is saying he is going to be the league's top rated passer and complete 70% of his passes on a terrible team. How many QBs in the NFL can you even say something like that for?

But Smith has been on fairly bad teams, or at least teams with some of the worst coaching ever, before and done mediocre. In 2009-2010 the 49ers offense wasn't nearly as good as it is today and the head coach was Mike Singletary, who I think most people would agree was one of the worst head coaches in recent history, and the offensive coordinator was Jimmy Raye. Smith managed to put up decent numbers, incredibly similar to what Jay Cutler has done the past two years, in that situation.

Cutler:
25 starts, 58.4% completion, 32 TD, 21 INT, 7.2 YPA, 214 YPG, 83.1 rating

Smith:
20 starts, 60.1% completion, 32 TD, 22 INT, 6.6 YPA, 215 YPG, 81.8 rating

And I would make the argument for Cutler's supporting cast over the past two years over Smith's in 2009-2010.

That is not even to mention that Smith ended 2010 on a hot streak after being booed against the Eagles. He had six touchdowns and nine interceptions through the Eagles game and he had eight touchdowns on one interception after it. That was when Smith started turning his career around. Harbaugh accelerated the process, true enough, and helped him along, but people constantly ignore the second part of 2010 and completely credit Harbaugh.

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Old 01-31-2013, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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What's interesting to me is, how some here view Alex Smith as a better qb than Phillip Rivers.

Has Phillip Rivers fell off that hard that Alex Smith is considered better than him? I find that intriguing. I think this upcoming season could very well be a make or break year for Phillip Rivers.
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Old 01-31-2013, 12:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
What's interesting to me is, how some here view Alex Smith as a better qb than Phillip Rivers.

Has Phillip Rivers fell off that hard that Alex Smith is considered better than him? I find that intriguing. I think this upcoming season could very well be a make or break year for Phillip Rivers.
After 2010 I had Philip Rivers sitting just outside of the top five QBs in the NFL. One could make the argument that he was the best QB in the league from 2008-2010. But the turnovers he has been making the past couple of years have just been inexcusable. He has given away at least a handful of games since 2011. He was the sole reason the Chargers missed the playoffs in 2011. They had a decent defense and decent running game but Rivers lost them multiple games with boneheaded turnovers.
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Old 01-31-2013, 12:51 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
After 2010 I had Philip Rivers sitting just outside of the top five QBs in the NFL. One could make the argument that he was the best QB in the league from 2008-2010. But the turnovers he has been making the past couple of years have just been inexcusable. He has given away at least a handful of games since 2011. He was the sole reason the Chargers missed the playoffs in 2011. They had a decent defense and decent running game but Rivers lost them multiple games with boneheaded turnovers.
It really is amazing. I can't wrap my head around it. Who is the real Phillip Rivers? The one we've seen the past 2 years or the guy from 08-10?

I always thought he was a very good qb. But if he has another terrible year next year, we have to question that. I think this upcoming season could be a make or break year for him.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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Check his OL. You don't have to go to far.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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Yeah but his OL wasn't too hot in 2010 either and he still did a good job. And I hate blaming the OL in general. We see plenty of qbs in this league with poor OLs do very well, or at the very least, a lot better than Rivers does.

Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Eli come to mind.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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Jeromey Clary is the worst tackle ever. Louis Vasquez is ok. Hardwick is so horrible. Green is not starting material. Kevin Haslam/Mike Harris are not starting material. Rex Hadnot is meh. Jared Gaither is a shell of himself.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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I get that. But isolate the player. A lot of those turnovers had nothing to do with protection issues.

They were just bad decisions or inaccurate passes. Not all of them were Rivers complete fault as pressure did play a factor in some, but let's not entirely excuse him from his performance either.

He's not the only qb with a questionable OL in front of him.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:41 PM    (permalink
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I don't want to give Rivers a break cause he is Phillip Rivers but his Line and options around him certainly have declined. Jackson is gone and Gates looks like he is grinding gears in his 10th season. Ryan Mathews' numbers were also meh.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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They tried to give him a supporting cast but the GM sucked. Meachem is a bust. Eddie Royal is ok. Gaither failed. Ronnie Brown ? lol

This isn't the Chargers team we used to know. They need a huge revamping.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:48 PM    (permalink
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They have to understand what kind of players they need for Rivers. Rivers likes and needs big WRs. His best years were when he had trees at WR and a healthy Antonio Gates who all went vertical and played jumpball, and if that was covered he had a speedy Sproles underneath to check down to get a cheap 10 yards.

That's what he likes, that's what he needs. It's perfect for his skillset bc it masks his armstrength issues and launch point issues.

Is it any surprise that Denario Alexander thrived with Rivers yet Meachem didn't? Meachem is a speed WR with average size, Alexander is 6 5".

That's the type of weapons Rivers needs. Get him some trees, and he'll be fine. When he had Jackson and Floyd he was fine. When Gates was an actual mismatch and not fat he was fine. Alexander thrived with Rivers bc of his height. But he can't succeed with the smaller shiftier guys. That's why Royal and Meachem were mistakes.

They expose Rivers flaws. Get him some trees. Get him another TE, and a good checkdown and he'll be fine again I think.

But you gotta build the team around his weaknesses to mask them.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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AJ Smith ruined this team.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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He built it up and he broke it down. He did an incredible job building that team up, but then he fell off hard the last 3 years. When your draft picks bust as hard as his did the past 3 years, it's hard to have a lot of success as an organization.
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Old 01-31-2013, 03:26 PM    (permalink
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Jay Cutler has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 5352 yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs. Y/A 7.4 and 7.0. 61 times sacked.

Alex Smith has started 25 games the past two seasons, his stats are: 4881 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs. Y/A 7.1 and 8.0. 68 times sacked.

Jay Cutler would get no argument from most as being a legitimate NFL starting QB. Alex Smith does. I'd rather have Alex Smith as my starting QB than Jay Cutler. But, then again, I'm just a blind homer.

And you, a blind hater.
I didn't say anything about Jay Cutler, but.....Colt Brennan had much better numbers than Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Using basic observational skills, I was able to determine that the latter two were much better suited to play QB in the NFL. What about you? Were you able to determine that? If not, you're kind of an idiot, but assuming you did, why can't you apply those same evaluation skills to NFL QB's?
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Old 01-31-2013, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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I didn't say anything about Jay Cutler, but.....Colt Brennan had much better numbers than Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Using basic observational skills, I was able to determine that the latter two were much better suited to play QB in the NFL. What about you? Were you able to determine that? If not, you're kind of an idiot, but assuming you did, why can't you apply those same evaluation skills to NFL QB's?
Yeah but they are both in the NFL currently so it's kind of a moot point. You can observe and say something about a QB and how you don't think he's good etc. but I feel a lot of the Alex Smith hate is undeserved and based on what he did earlier in his career.
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Old 01-31-2013, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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Sure. John Clayton gives it a shot every year.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/preview11/sto...l-starting-qbs

2011
Quote:
28. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Analysis: 49ers fans are getting the seven-year itch for a new quarterback. It's been seven years, seven offensive coordinators, 19 victories and no playoffs during the Smith years in San Francisco.

Arrow is pointing: flat
Matt Cassel 1 spot ahead of Cutler.

His Smith rating was moronic at the time. In 09-10 Smith was dead average by the numers while the parts and coaching around him were all sub par other than Gore who would always put 100% into his rush attempts. So you figured he was at least a pretty good QB, probably not great but nobody cared to give him any credit cause the team was irrelevant so who cares to pay attention to make an accurate measurement.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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Yeah but they are both in the NFL currently so it's kind of a moot point. You can observe and say something about a QB and how you don't think he's good etc. but I feel a lot of the Alex Smith hate is undeserved and based on what he did earlier in his career.
I think it's a pretty huge misconception that QB evaluation should stop and defer to just looking at their stats once they're in the NFL. There are drastically differing circumstances. I can say with virtual certainty that the Niners would have never benched Jay Cutler or Phil Rivers. I can't tell you how many times I've watched the Texans and thought to myself how drastically Jay Cutler or Joe Flacco would improve that team, even though noodle armed Schaub has the better stats. People just totally throw logic out the window once a QB reaches the NFL.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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We live in a fantasy football world.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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I think it's a pretty huge misconception that QB evaluation should stop and defer to just looking at their stats once they're in the NFL. There are drastically differing circumstances. I can say with virtual certainty that the Niners would have never benched Jay Cutler or Phil Rivers. I can't tell you how many times I've watched the Texans and thought to myself how drastically Jay Cutler or Joe Flacco would improve that team, even though noodle armed Schaub has the better stats. People just totally throw logic out the window once a QB reaches the NFL.
I don't know, I might rather have Alex Smith than Cutler or Rivers... It depends, both of them have been painfully average lately, at least with Smith you know you're getting someone who isn't going to flat out lose you games and play like a dipshit in important times.

I guess there are just two crowds, people who think Smith sucks and are more caught up on his early career, and those who feel he is drastically underrated.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by WinslowBodden View Post
I don't know, I might rather have Alex Smith than Cutler or Rivers... It depends, both of them have been painfully average lately, at least with Smith you know you're getting someone who isn't going to flat out lose you games and play like a dipshit in important times.
I know Rivers play has dropped off but people are starting to act like the guy is a bum and that's just ridiculous.
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01...ly-liked-alex/
"Trent Dilfer: Andy Reid ‘really likes Alex’"

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“There was a courtship last year, to a certain degree,” Dilfer said.

Asked for specifics of Philadelphia’s dalliance with Smith, he said, “I don’t know a whole lot. I just know there was a courtship. It was not even an inside source, you know what I mean? It was just kind of the scuttle in the offseason.”
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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I know Rivers play has dropped off but people are starting to act like the guy is a bum and that's just ridiculous.
Yeah I'm surprised how his perception has changed so dramatically. Just 2 years ago he had a legion of fan boys now he's not even as good as Alex Smith?

I don't buy it. I see him bouncing back.
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:23 PM    (permalink
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I don't know, I might rather have Alex Smith than Cutler or Rivers... It depends, both of them have been painfully average lately, at least with Smith you know you're getting someone who isn't going to flat out lose you games and play like a dipshit in important times.

I guess there are just two crowds, people who think Smith sucks and are more caught up on his early career, and those who feel he is drastically underrated.
I mean....that's fine. I know that Smith has made strides. He's made the absolute most out of what he is and reinvented himself as the smart QB that knows his limitations and will never take a risk. He can be the QB of a team that wins football games, and his stats will look pretty solid in the process. I don't think that type of QB can win a Super Bowl except for under the flukiest of circumstances.

It's another conversation, but I don't think people fully understand what Cutler is, either. I think people tend to go off of their preconceived notions of the guy, just as you say people do with Smith. The main difference is that I don't feel the need to defend him, because the Bears seem to know what they have, and that's all I really care about.
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm not saying I hate Cutler or Rivers as quarterbacks, but I don't really get the knocks on Alex Smith's game overall. People who want to use stats and seem to call him a completely safe QB etc. and that he cannot make things happen, but when he was playing this season he was top 10 in yards per attempt, which is a pretty solid number to look at.

I'm not all about stats, I'm just saying I don't get all the negativity that surrounds him.
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Old 01-31-2013, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Splat View Post
I know Rivers play has dropped off but people are starting to act like the guy is a bum and that's just ridiculous.
Maybe not a bum but the last two seasons he has been a bottom half of the league QB.

@Winslow - Smith was actually top three in YPA before he got injured. He was top 10 in air yards per attempts (passing yards - YAC / pass attempts).
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