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Old 06-05-2013, 02:59 PM    (permalink
Rosebud
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AcheTen explain away why we're you shouldn't account for the following factors

As a part time Player Graham stays fresh where JPP isn't rotated in and out to stay fresh

As a star player JPP is often the focus of opposing blocking schemes, and how this plays into the freshness question from before.

As a part time player Graham doesn't play all snaps, further more as a situational player he got a lot favorable snaps, where a player in his position is more likely to produce a measureable stat. Hockey uses offensive zone starts and qualcomp to account for this since the sport is constant rotation of players, where is your ozone start% stat or qualcomp numbers to show Graham wasn't getting much easier snaps?

Scheme, explain why a rotational player in a wide 9 doesn't benefit immensely in terms of production versus a player who has traditional gap control responsibilities, then account for Perry Fewell's insistence that JPP drop off and look to bat the ball if he isn't gunna get the sack, and how many snaps he played JPP on the inside for to utilize those long, pass batting arms in the middle.

I'll keep it simple for you and leave you just those factors, but actually explain why we should ignore them completely.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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Wait, so 122 and 208 carries are a better sample size collection than 400+ snaps and 800+ snaps?

And you fail to mention that they also played different positions. Tebow was the QB, whereas Peterson was the RB.

It's well known in the NFL that historically, rushing averages for QBs are far higher than for RBs because the QB has a built-in advantage on scrambles.

Comparing Graham to Pierre Paul is far more of an accurate comparison because both played 4-3 DE.
Okay, what about Jon Baldwin and Calvin. They play the same position. Baldwin actaully had more snaps than Graham did, so my sample size is better. Explain to be why Calvin Johnson is better than Jon Baldwin.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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AcheTen explain away why we're you shouldn't account for the following factors

As a part time Player Graham stays fresh where JPP isn't rotated in and out to stay fresh
There is merit to this point, but I think you are overstating it. Graham might not be nearly as effective if he played 800+ snaps as he was per snap with 400+ snaps, but he'd still be more effective than Pierre Paul.

He might be, say, 70-80% as effective per snap if he played all 800+ snaps. That' still would mean that he would vastly outproduce Pierre Paul.

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As a star player JPP is often the focus of opposing blocking schemes, and how this plays into the freshness question from before.
This is completely nebulous and unsubstantiated. I watched a ton of Giants games and I didn't see Pierre Paul doubled on every snap. He saw enough single blocking that you can't just say that he was "double teamed" far more often than Graham.

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As a part time player Graham doesn't play all snaps, further more as a situational player he got a lot favorable snaps, where a player in his position is more likely to produce a measureable stat. Hockey uses offensive zone starts and qualcomp to account for this since the sport is constant rotation of players, where is your ozone start% stat or qualcomp numbers to show Graham wasn't getting much easier snaps?
Again, this is hard to measure in football. The rotation that Philly used didn't just put Graham in on easy 3rd-and-longs. The system basically rotated in "lines" of defensive linemen who would play say, 10 or so snaps, and then rotate out. Graham saw just as many 1st downs and 2nd downs as PIerre Paul, proportionally speaking.

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Scheme, explain why a rotational player in a wide 9 doesn't benefit immensely in terms of production versus a player who has traditional gap control responsibilities, then account for Perry Fewell's insistence that JPP drop off and look to bat the ball if he isn't gunna get the sack, and how many snaps he played JPP on the inside for to utilize those long, pass batting arms in the middle.
Graham played traditional gap control football for the last 5 games of the season after Washburn was fired and they brought in a different line coach, so a good chunk of his production came out of that traditional 4-3 just like Pierre Paul.

The Wide-9 might have something to do with production differences, and it clearly helped out Jason Babin, but I think you are overstating it, because Graham played in a traditional 4-3 in his rookie season and had similarly high Pass Rush Productivity, and also played traditiona gap-control 4-3 in the last few games of the 2012 season as well.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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Okay, what about Jon Baldwin and Calvin. They play the same position. Baldwin actaully had more snaps than Graham did, so my sample size is better. Explain to be why Calvin Johnson is better than Jon Baldwin.
1. Baldwin might actually be an elite WR in the future. Did you even consider that? Putting up great numbers in limited snaps can often be a harbinger of what's to come. I wouldn't be shocked if Baldwin even outplays Johnson in the future. Put yuor bias aside and open your mind.

2. Also, Y/R stats for WRs are far more uniform and standardized than sacks/snap for DEs. The nature of the WR position lends itself to uniformity among Y/R stats.

3. 20 receptions is again a very small sample size. Much smaller than 400+ snaps.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:11 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't be shocked if Baldwin even outplays Johnson in the future.

3. 20 receptions is again a very small sample size. Much smaller than 400+ snaps.
Lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


Baldwin had over 500 snaps compared to 421 for Graham. If anyone's sample size is too small, it's your's.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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this is incredible. bravo everyone, bravo.

except now I want pizza.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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Lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


Baldwin had over 500 snaps compared to 421 for Graham. If anyone's sample size is too small, it's your's.
You're comparing yards per reception though.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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Jon Baldwin averages 16.3 yards per reception in 2013. Calvin Johnson only averages 16.1. Baldwin had 1 TD per 20 receptions. Johnson only had a TD every 24.4 receptions. Baldwin is a more efficient receiver, is he better?
The sample size here is not SNAPS but RECEPTIONS.

And in 2012, Baldwin had 20 receptions, whereas Johnson had 122 receptions.

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Old 06-05-2013, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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The sample size here is not SNAPS but RECEPTIONS.

And in 2012, Baldwin had 20 receptions, whereas Johnson had 122 receptions.
Why is it receptions instead of snaps?
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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Guys, I don't get what we're arguing about.

WE ALL AGREE.

JPP had more total production than Brandon Graham.

Let's just agree to agree. Since we all agree.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:38 PM    (permalink
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The sample size here is not SNAPS but RECEPTIONS.
What is significant sample size? 50 receptions? In that case Josh Gordon, Cecil Shorts, and TY Hilton are better players than Calvin Johnson based on your logic. How about 40? Then we could add Nate Washington and Chris Givens. 35? Denario Alexander is better than Calvin Johnson.

Or we could look at TDs. Who had more TDs per reception than Calvin Johnson? Let's just look at players who had 48.2% of the receptions or more tha Johnson had (only fair because Graham had 48.2% of the snaps JPP dd). That comes out to 58.8 receptions. Here is the list of guys better than Johnson.

Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Randall Cobb, Steve Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin, Miles Austin, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, James Jones, Mike Wallace, Andre Roberts, Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, Danny Amendola, Mike Williams, Percy Harvin, Donnie Avery, & Dwayne Bowe.

So there you have it folks. Calvin Johnson is the 34th best receiver in the NFL.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:41 PM    (permalink
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Derrick Morgan is better than Brandon Graham. Come at me.
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Old 06-05-2013, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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The guy with 8.5 pizzas worked for only a month at the pizza shop due to external circumstances while the guy with 27.5 pizzas has been working there for a whole year.

Which worker, assuming good health and working ability for both, would you bank on being more productive going into the future?

The guy that pumped out 8.5 pizzas in a month of work or a guy who took a whole year just to make 27.5 pizzas?

There's a good chance that the guy with 8.5 pizzas in a month of work could come close to making 102 pizzas (8.5*12) if he works the full year. Maybe not exactly that many, but probably far more than 27.5 pizzas.
That is assuming a lot. This guy has barely showed up for work the past 3 years and even then he was only a part time worker. I wouldn't trust a guy like that to be consistent, especially if I started giving him increasingly more responsibilities. I wouldnt count on his health with his problems also.

When you say Graham will out produce JPP do you mean the 6.5 this year or the 16+ he did?
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Old 06-05-2013, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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What is significant sample size? 50 receptions? In that case Josh Gordon, Cecil Shorts, and TY Hilton are better players than Calvin Johnson based on your logic. How about 40? Then we could add Nate Washington and Chris Givens. 35? Denario Alexander is better than Calvin Johnson.

Or we could look at TDs. Who had more TDs per reception than Calvin Johnson? Let's just look at players who had 48.2% of the receptions or more tha Johnson had (only fair because Graham had 48.2% of the snaps JPP dd). That comes out to 58.8 receptions. Here is the list of guys better than Johnson.

Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Randall Cobb, Steve Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin, Miles Austin, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, James Jones, Mike Wallace, Andre Roberts, Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, Danny Amendola, Mike Williams, Percy Harvin, Donnie Avery, & Dwayne Bowe.

So there you have it folks. Calvin Johnson is the 34th best receiver in the NFL.
I want my sample size to be at least 200+ units of whatever we are measuring.
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Old 06-05-2013, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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Guys, I don't get what we're arguing about.

WE ALL AGREE.

JPP had more total production than Brandon Graham.

Let's just agree to agree. Since we all agree.
Except that we're not talking about total production, we're talking about efficiency (which is a better measure of talent).
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Old 06-05-2013, 04:36 PM    (permalink
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I want my sample size to be at least 200+ units of whatever we are measuring.
You can't measure efficiency per reception in terms of 200 units because receivers don't have 200 receptions in a season. If 48.2% is a good enough ratio for snaps it is good enough for receptions.
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Old 06-05-2013, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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You can't measure efficiency per reception in terms of 200 units because receivers don't have 200 receptions in a season. If 48.2% is a good enough ratio for snaps it is good enough for receptions.
Not really. Sample sizes matter alot. There's a reason you can't take 10 baseball games and draw conclusions about pitchers based on a 1.33 ERA in those 10 games if they have a 4+ ERA over the course of 160 games.

You can find a <2 ERA stretch of 10 games, or even 20 games, for most pitchers.

It's simply not valid to draw conclusions from the small sample sizes you keep bringing up to counter my argument which was based on a 400-900 snap sample size.
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Old 06-05-2013, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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What is significant sample size? 50 receptions? In that case Josh Gordon, Cecil Shorts, and TY Hilton are better players than Calvin Johnson based on your logic. How about 40? Then we could add Nate Washington and Chris Givens. 35? Denario Alexander is better than Calvin Johnson.

Or we could look at TDs. Who had more TDs per reception than Calvin Johnson? Let's just look at players who had 48.2% of the receptions or more tha Johnson had (only fair because Graham had 48.2% of the snaps JPP dd). That comes out to 58.8 receptions. Here is the list of guys better than Johnson.

Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Randall Cobb, Steve Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin, Miles Austin, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, James Jones, Mike Wallace, Andre Roberts, Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, Danny Amendola, Mike Williams, Percy Harvin, Donnie Avery, & Dwayne Bowe.

So there you have it folks. Calvin Johnson is the 34th best receiver in the NFL.
If we are looking at Yards Per Reception: here is the list of players with a better Y/R in 2012 than Calvin Johnson:

1. Vincent Jackson 19.2
2. Cecil Shorts 17.8
3. Danario Alexander 17.8
4. Torrey Smith 17.2
5. TY Hilton 17.2
6. Chris Givens 16.6
7. Nate Washington 16.2

8. Calvin Johnson 16.1

However, if we look at their yardage total:

1. Vincent Jackson 1384
2. Cecil Shorts 979
3. Danario Alexander 658
4. Torrey Smith 855
5. TY Hilton 861
6. Chris Givens 698
7. Nate Washington 746

8. Calvin Johnson 1964


It's obvious that Vincent Jackson is the only one who comes close to the gross production of Johnson.

The higher Y/R of the other guys is a product of those WRs being deep threats almost exclusively - Hilton, Smith, Shorts, etc are all 9 route type of players.

What Y/R is measuring is not overall WR prowess, but simply deep ball ability. In many ways, Hilton, Smith, Shorts might be better pure deep ball receivers than Johnson, but they are not better WRs.

If we look at Johnson's yardage total, it's obvious that he simply massively outproduces the other players.

In the Graham vs, Pierre Paul case, that is not true. Despite playing TWICE the snaps, (which would be the equivalent of Calvin Johnson having twice th receptions of Cecil Short), Pierre Paul barely outproduced Graham. Look at their numbers:

Per (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts):

Jason Pierre Paul, in 2012, played 951 total snaps, of which 873 were on defense.
Brandon Graham, in 2012, played 440 total snaps, of which 421 were on defense.

Per (http://www.pro-football-reference.co...G/GrahBr99.htm) and (http://www.pro-football-reference.co...PierJa99.htm):

Jason Pierre Paul, in 2012, had 6.5 sacks, 5 PDs, 1 FF, 43 Tackles.
Brandon Graham, in 2012, had 5.5 sacks, 1 PD, 2 FF, 30 Tackles.


He had 4 more PDs only 13 more Tackles, and only 1 more sack. And it took him TWICE the number of snaps to this. That's bad.


Now compare Cecil Shorts to Calvin Johnson:

Cecil Shorts, in 2012, had 55 receptions for 979 yards.
Calvin Johnson, in 2012, had 122 receptions for 1964 yards.

So Johnson had more than DOUBLE the yards of Shorts, despite Shorts having a slightly better Y/R. So yes, Johnson had twice the number of receptions, but he more than doubled the production as well.

In Jason Pierre Paul's case, he had more than twice the number of snaps as Graham, but he barely outproduced him.
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Old 06-05-2013, 05:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Getting "doubled" and "schemed for" is an excuse. Did you watch every snap of every game Pierre Paul played in? Did you literally count the number of times he was double-teamed or worse? And then can you do the same for Graham?

Didn't think so.
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
This is completely nebulous and unsubstantiated. I watched a ton of Giants games and I didn't see Pierre Paul doubled on every snap. He saw enough single blocking that you can't just say that he was "double teamed" far more often than Graham.
You made me curious.

So, I decided to pull up a spreadsheet and chart some protections from the 2012 Week 4 tape of the Giants v. Eagles. Picked that game for a few reasons. Could watch both without jumping around, meaningful division game, close score window, coaching staffs that are quite familiar with opponent personnel and their threats posed, no documented injuries, marginal difference on the stat sheet, etc. Did the first half. The results speak for themselves:

General
Team Defensive Snaps: 32 (JPP), 40 (Graham).
Individual Defensive Snaps: 31 (JPP), 8 (Graham).
Defensive Snaps Percentage: 96.9% (JPP), 20.0% (Graham).
2nd & 11+ Snaps Percentage: 100.0% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
3rd & 7+ Snaps Percentage: 100.0% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).

Primary Blocker
OT Percentage: 80.0% (JPP), 75.0% (Graham).
C Percentage: 3.3% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
TE Percentage: 13.3% (JPP), 12.5% (Graham).
RB Percentage: 0.0% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
Unblocked Percentage: 3.3% (JPP), 12.5% (Graham).

Secondary Blocker
OT Percentage: 6.7% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
OG Percentage: 6.7% (JPP), 12.5% (Graham).
TE Percentage: 23.3% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
HB Percentage: 6.7% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
WR Percentage: 3.3% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).

Personnel Alignment
Same-Side TE Percentage: 66.7% (JPP), 37.5% (Graham).
Same-Side RB Percentage: 21.1% (JPP), 50.0% (Graham).

In addition, a higher percentage of JPP’s help blocks engaged him rather than chipped or re-routed, resulting in a greater number of true “doubles” on a whole and per snap basis. And all of these numbers are just straight data. None of them even consider the fact that Brandon Graham tended to rush from easier, wider alignments with fewer run responsibilities.

In short, JPP being schemed against more than Brandon Graham can’t be dismissed as an excuse or groupthink. It’s a fact.
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Old 06-05-2013, 05:16 PM    (permalink
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Group-think is a powerful thing. It's so much more dangerous to have an original thought than to stick with the herd.

Just listen to the media hype, and don't bother actually paying attention to games and watching individual players.
I've watched every game JPP has played in the NFL, every game at South Florida, hell even every game at Fort Scott Community College. I went to FSCC with him, so I've followed his career extremely close.

Graham is not in the same league as JPP, Graham posting half of a decent season as a pass rusher does not make him better than JPP. Graham has posted 8.5 career sacks. JPP has posted 27.5 in that time. In fact, Graham is the 3rd best DE from that class behind JPP and Derrick Morgan.

Even PFF doesn't agree with you. They listed JPP as #46 in the top 101 of 2012 season, Derrick Morgan as #65, and Brandon Graham as #76.
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Old 06-05-2013, 05:45 PM    (permalink
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When cudders has spoken, /thread.
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Old 06-05-2013, 06:26 PM    (permalink
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I've watched every game JPP has played in the NFL, every game at South Florida, hell even every game at Fort Scott Community College. I went to FSCC with him, so I've followed his career extremely close.

Graham is not in the same league as JPP, Graham posting half of a decent season as a pass rusher does not make him better than JPP. Graham has posted 8.5 career sacks. JPP has posted 27.5 in that time. In fact, Graham is the 3rd best DE from that class behind JPP and Derrick Morgan.

Even PFF doesn't agree with you. They listed JPP as #46 in the top 101 of 2012 season, Derrick Morgan as #65, and Brandon Graham as #76.
That was based solely on cumulative production. They were ranking players on individual talent but on TOTAL contributions to the team.

Of course Pierre Paul and Morgan contributed more in total, they played far more snaps.

However, Graham was more efficient (which is a better indicator of talent) in the snaps he DID play. And PFF shows that in their Player Grades and their Pass Rush Productivity score for Graham.
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Old 06-05-2013, 06:27 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Cudders View Post
You made me curious.

So, I decided to pull up a spreadsheet and chart some protections from the 2012 Week 4 tape of the Giants v. Eagles. Picked that game for a few reasons. Could watch both without jumping around, meaningful division game, close score window, coaching staffs that are quite familiar with opponent personnel and their threats posed, no documented injuries, marginal difference on the stat sheet, etc. Did the first half. The results speak for themselves:

General
Team Defensive Snaps: 32 (JPP), 40 (Graham).
Individual Defensive Snaps: 31 (JPP), 8 (Graham).
Defensive Snaps Percentage: 96.9% (JPP), 20.0% (Graham).
2nd & 11+ Snaps Percentage: 100.0% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
3rd & 7+ Snaps Percentage: 100.0% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).

Primary Blocker
OT Percentage: 80.0% (JPP), 75.0% (Graham).
C Percentage: 3.3% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
TE Percentage: 13.3% (JPP), 12.5% (Graham).
RB Percentage: 0.0% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
Unblocked Percentage: 3.3% (JPP), 12.5% (Graham).

Secondary Blocker
OT Percentage: 6.7% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
OG Percentage: 6.7% (JPP), 12.5% (Graham).
TE Percentage: 23.3% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
HB Percentage: 6.7% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).
WR Percentage: 3.3% (JPP), 0.0% (Graham).

Personnel Alignment
Same-Side TE Percentage: 66.7% (JPP), 37.5% (Graham).
Same-Side RB Percentage: 21.1% (JPP), 50.0% (Graham).

In addition, a higher percentage of JPP’s help blocks engaged him rather than chipped or re-routed, resulting in a greater number of true “doubles” on a whole and per snap basis. And all of these numbers are just straight data. None of them even consider the fact that Brandon Graham tended to rush from easier, wider alignments with fewer run responsibilities.

In short, JPP being schemed against more than Brandon Graham can’t be dismissed as an excuse or groupthink. It’s a fact.
Assuming that the game charting is correct (I don't know if those numbers are completely accurate), what it tells me is that in ONE game,

an offensive coordinator decided to game plan in such a way that the TEs were actively engaged in chip blocking the DEs. If I remember correctly, that game was the one in which the Eagles ran the ball uncharacteristically heavily with LeSean McCoy, and basically avoided the passing game.

Again, small sample sizes like this are misleading. That particular game was a specific game plan that the Eagles had for that team. You can't draw conclusions about Pierre Paul's entire season based on one game plan by the Eagles to run the ball heavily in a tight, low-scoring contest.

You need to break down the blocking schemes for basically every single game both players played in 2012 before we can even begin to discuss whether or not coordinators "game planned" against Pierre Paul more so than Graham, and even then, the fact that Pierre Paul may have been chip-blocked by a TE slightly more often than Graham doesn't mean that Pierre Paul's job was astronomically more difficult.
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Old 06-05-2013, 06:46 PM    (permalink
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My only question...

Quote:
Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
You need to break down the blocking schemes for basically every single game both players played in 2012 before we can even begin to discuss whether or not coordinators "game planned" against Pierre Paul more so than Graham
Why not do just that... TO PROVE YOUR POINT, as opposed to demanding others do it to prove theirs?
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Old 06-05-2013, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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Cudders just skeeted all over this thread.
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