President's Day Mini-Game Thread - Mafia Wins

[jrdrylie]

Sorry that I disappeared for a while guys. I got a flat tire. Crap like this didn't happen when we rode around on horses.

[Grizzlegom]

Updated Vote Count:

No lynch (5) - Rufus, Rob, fenikz, Buckeye, McGee
Rob (1) - JR

With 9 players alive, 5 is needed for majority

[Grizzlegom]

As the Presidents gathered to discuss what to do, they decided no course of action would be in their best interests, in hopes to gather more information for the morning.

SEND IN YOUR NIGHT ACTIONS! You have until 5:30 PM EST but please don't make us wait

[Grizzlegom]

As the Presidents reconvene for day two, they notice that one doesn't appear. Rob S is found dead, apparently shot through the head by a high-caliber weapon.

Rob S (John Adams, Doctor) has been killed.

With 8 alive, 5 are needed for majority.

The day will end at 6:30 PM EST.

[RufusMcDaniel]

Well isn't that a kick to the groin.

What time do we have til, Grizz?

[fenikz]

says the man who killed him!

[jrdrylie]

Well that's a frame job if I've ever seen one.

[RufusMcDaniel]

Why would I kill Rob?

Classic attempt at a potential frame job.

[Bulldogs]

I agree that it seems way too obvious to not be a frame.

[Bulldogs]

I don't like JR right now, pulls out the R4L excuse last second before the day ends.

[RufusMcDaniel]

I don't know, the kill of Rob leads me to sway away from JR. I know it was just his random generator which lead him to vote Rob, but I doubt he'd be for doing that.

[jrdrylie]

Originally Posted by Bulldogs

I don't like JR right now, pulls out the R4L excuse last second before the day ends.

Well, I am the mafia goon so you have good reason not to like me.

[Bulldogs]

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

Well, I am the mafia goon so you have good reason not to like me.

I'm surprised you had the time to respond to me with all these supposed "car issues" JR, if that really is you! I'm starting to believe you pulled the old switcharoo with R4L.

[RufusMcDaniel]

So honestly, where are we at today? Taking a shot in the dark or do we possibly no lynch again? Or is that dumb.

[Bulldogs]

Originally Posted by RufusMcDaniel

So honestly, where are we at today? Taking a shot in the dark or do we possibly no lynch again? Or is that dumb.

Unless we have an investigator hiding with results I feel like we need to make a move at some point. A game this size will be done fast and they'll just pick us apart at night.

[BuckeyeDan17]

Originally Posted by Bulldogs

Unless we have an investigator hiding with results I feel like we need to make a move at some point. A game this size will be done fast and they'll just pick us apart at night.

Yeah. I feel like a sitting duck right now. Although I did endure a pretty traumatic experience once already..

[jrdrylie]

Let's look at the odds.

There is a 75% chance we kill a good guy if we lynch (assuming the cop doesn't come up with something). So let's say we do that. At night time, the Cop has a 40% chance of hitting a bad guy (assuming he didn't investigate Rob last night. If he did, 33%) The mafia has a 20% chance of killing the cop.

But let's say we don't lynch. The Cop now only has a 33% chance of hitting a bad guy (28.5% if he investigated Rob last night). The mafia has a 16.6% chance of hitting a cop.

So the Cops chances drop 7 (or 4.5) percent if we don't lynch while the mafia's drop only 3.3%. So the mafia has a slight advantage to not lynching. I say we lynch.

[RufusMcDaniel]

Nice breakdown, Jr. I guess we need to take a shot then. But now the question is....who?

[jrdrylie]

I don't think we should lynch you or myself. Other than that, I could go with anyone absent of getting info.

[Bulldogs]

I say we lynch Broth. Has he even spoken? Quit Brothin it up.

[Brothgar]

I think at this point we HAVE to vote for someone. just sitting on our haunches and biding our time isn't going to get us anywhere.

[BuckeyeDan17]

If you guys had to throw a name at the wall who is it then?

[Brothgar]

I'll go with JR or Rufus. The fact that JR already trusts rufus based on nothing means one of two things. So I'll vote Rufus.

Vote Rufus

[jrdrylie]

I don't trust Rufus. I just don't not trust him the least.

Completely random since we have nothing to go on.

Vote fenikz

[Bulldogs]

As I speak out the Great Brothgar appears.