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Old 03-28-2013, 10:55 AM    (permalink
K Train
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Originally Posted by FootballGod View Post
How has no one mentioned Marcus Lattimore? The guys is coming off a terrible ACL injury only to perform most drills requested of him at his pro day. He could go as high as the early third round or as low as the 6th round. Huge question marks for him but huge upside as well!
to me lattimore is still far and away the best back in the draft. He earns a top 10 grade but will probably be selected in round 2. If the steelers spend pick 2.17 on him ill be thrilled, even if they PUP or IR him as a rookie
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 03-28-2013, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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I'm going to say DJ Swearinger. I see a lot of people absolutely rave about the guy, and I love him as well, yet he is consistently grading out as a 3rd or 4th rounder.

If one team falls in love with him (very probable IMO) I think he could go early in the second
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Old 03-28-2013, 12:28 PM    (permalink
Attyla the Hawk
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This is a very weird draft. The problems of forecasting are twofold:

1. The talent disparity is pretty flat over the top 150 players.

This isn't to say there isn't a measurable difference. But that there are pockets of value within each position in multiple rounds. And that disparity in talent between those pockets is really shallow.

2. Team needs are going to play a bigger role in selections

With this much depth, there isn't going to be as much second guessing selections from a BPA standpoint. Guys are going to fall and they are going to fall hard. Not because they aren't valuable. Just because they aren't so much better than guys at other areas. So you won't often see teams ignoring need and taking a guy because he was too good to pass up. That relative difference is going to be much smaller this year. So guys will fall through no real fault other than circumstance.
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Old 03-28-2013, 12:49 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Attyla the Hawk View Post
This is a very weird draft. The problems of forecasting are twofold:

1. The talent disparity is pretty flat over the top 150 players.

This isn't to say there isn't a measurable difference. But that there are pockets of value within each position in multiple rounds. And that disparity in talent between those pockets is really shallow.

2. Team needs are going to play a bigger role in selections

With this much depth, there isn't going to be as much second guessing selections from a BPA standpoint. Guys are going to fall and they are going to fall hard. Not because they aren't valuable. Just because they aren't so much better than guys at other areas. So you won't often see teams ignoring need and taking a guy because he was too good to pass up. That relative difference is going to be much smaller this year. So guys will fall through no real fault other than circumstance.
This is a very solid point although 150 is way too many. I've certainly heard that the difference between the #5 pick and the 25th pick is negligible and no doubt will lead to some real shockers on draft day as mockers and rumours turnout to be dead wrong, but 150 is a bit of an exaggeration IMO.
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Old 03-28-2013, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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Ryan Swope
Jordan Reed
Kiko Alonso
David Amerson
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Old 03-28-2013, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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Amerson is a good one. Was a top 5 lock pre season while Milliner was virtually unknown
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 03-28-2013, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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RBs in general have a huge window. From the top (Lacy, Bernard) to the second tier guys (Michael, Ball), there is a wide range where they could fall.
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Old 03-28-2013, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
This is a very solid point although 150 is way too many. I've certainly heard that the difference between the #5 pick and the 25th pick is negligible and no doubt will lead to some real shockers on draft day as mockers and rumours turnout to be dead wrong, but 150 is a bit of an exaggeration IMO.
I didn't really make the point very clear.

Obviously there is a big difference between 5 and 150. But what I am saying, is that there aren't these steep precipices of talent drop off throughout the 150.

Meaning if you are looking for WRs in late round 1, you aren't going to feel compelled to take one when the WRs in late round 2 look just slightly worse. And if you are in late round 2, those available in late round 3 aren't that much worse either.

It's a very smooth and shallow slope. If you look at it from say pick 20 to pick 130 -- yeah it looks a lot different. But if you're looking at say OL and WR, you can pretty much expect a quality starter in rounds one, two or three. And possibly a guy who starts before seasons' end in round 4.

Round to round, the quality is very consistent. I don't see a lot of teams feeling like they HAVE to take their #1 need with their first or even second pick outside of maybe the top 15 players.

Take for example, if you were Tampa Bay. They need corners. There are a lot of good corners in this draft. They won't get the best one (Milliner), but they could get 2 quality starters even if they trade down to the back half of round 1. And there is a high likelihood that the second CB they take could end up being the better of the two. The quality difference is that close.

I guess an more concise way of putting it is: This talent pool feels like the second round starts at about pick 20 and goes on till about pick 150. A lot of 3rd and 4th round guys are going to be expected to produce like a normal years' 2nd round pick.

There isn't much difference between 5 and 25. There is probably less difference between 26 and 45. And then again between 46 and 75.

If you look at it in blocks of picks -- teams aren't going to be hard pressed take a non need pick because someone happened to fall. Because that falling prospect isn't THAT much more impressive than a need pick that is generically available where they pick. A first round prospect could continue to fall based on what teams need and whether they fit.
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Old 03-28-2013, 05:28 PM    (permalink
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I would say Bray has a really uncertain draft stock - I have heard anywhere from second round to potentially not drafted at all due to character issues.
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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Matt Elam isnt the most uncertain but he's a tough one. I think he's a 1st rounder but I could see him slipping to latter half of the 2nd due to height.
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:34 PM    (permalink
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I have not seen Eric Reid Mentioned. I have heard some people still like him late in the 1st and some have him in the late 3rd.
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Old 03-29-2013, 04:24 AM    (permalink
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Michael Mauti. He could go anywhere from 4th to undrafted. His production is near the top of his position. His character is unmatched.

His knees? Well...
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Old 03-29-2013, 08:50 AM    (permalink
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Te`o is an obvious one, I like the OPs prospect of Barrett Jones. After the BCS game everyone had him late 1st, now i've seen him in the 4th. Could it all be due to his injury? He would be a steal if my Titans took him with our 3rd comp, or heck even our 3rd.
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Old 03-29-2013, 09:00 AM    (permalink
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Lattimore/Montegomery
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