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Old 04-06-2013, 09:12 AM    (permalink
gpngc
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Default Trade Ideas

I like to try and predict what trades might happen and if we get enough ideas, we'll probably come close or maybe even nail one.

There have already been some rumors.

But first, I read something interesting in a book about Belichick/Dimitroff/Pioli.

Dimitroff really wanted A.J. Green or Julio and wrestled with the decision to move up for Julio.

He called Belichick and told him about the deal and Belichick said he wouldn't do it. Found that interesting.

Some other interesting nuggets.

-Belichick wanted Steven Jackson when he fell in 2004.

-The Broncos had a deal for Matt Cassel for a first but the Chiefs got him because they added Vrabel to their proposal.

-The book makes it seem as though Belichick's interest in Tebow was a pure smokescreen.

OK. Trades.

1) Does Miami move up for a LT? They have two seconds. But will they be willing to go to No. 4? Or will they only go to No. 6 if Lane Johnson doesn't go No. 5 to Detroit? Hmm.

2) By the same token, would Arizona or San Diego be willing to give up a 2nd and/or 3rd/future pick to move up for Fisher/Johnson? Maybe Arizona moves up to 6 for a 5th if they get in a bidding war with Miami.

3) If Dee Milliner falls, are the Bucs, Panthers, or Saints interested in moving up for him? Same for the Panthers for Richardson or Star? The Jets at 9, if Jordan/Ansah are gone, will probably look to move down under Idzik.

4) The 49ers are lurking and need a starting FS. Could they move up for Vaccaro?

5) A team looking to add Tavon Austin? Baltimore's made some shrewd free agent moves to fill some needs so they might be able to move a little to get a big-time weapon. Same for Houston.

6) The late first is always where people look for QBs. Denver and New England are candidates to trade out. Jacksonville for Smith/Barkley or Buffalo or Philly for Manuel are all possibilities.

What do you think?
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Old 04-06-2013, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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I have Miami moving up to 6 because I think Fisher/Joeckel (whomever KC doesn't take) will be Detroit's at 5 and Miami really likes Lane Johnson. though they need pass rush if one of the two elite tackle prospects falls into your lap you don't pass it up. also I think Cleveland is a prime candidate to trade down because taking a #2 corner with the 6th pick doesn't seem like great value. they can pick up someone like Warmack or Eifert, even Rhodes if they do covet a guy to play opposite Haden.

By this same token, I think Tennessee, San Diego, or Tampa could move up a few spots to take Milliner after he makes it past 6. there isn't a lot of need for him from 7-9 but either might move up to make sure they get him before the other

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Old 04-06-2013, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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By this same token, I think Tennessee, San Diego, or Tampa could move up a few spots to take Milliner after he makes it past 6. there isn't a lot of need for him from 7-9 but either might move up to make sure they get him before the other
I highly doubt that
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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Something I read that makes sense, a team that covets an interior DL (maybe Tampa, Carolina) may want to move ahead of Tennessee.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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I see the Vikings at 25 as one of the candidates to trade down as someone (Jax, Cleveland, Philly, Buffalo?) wants back into the 1st for a qb.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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I have Miami moving up to 6 because I think Fisher/Joeckel (whomever KC doesn't take) will be Detroit's at 5 and Miami really likes Lane Johnson. though they need pass rush if one of the two elite tackle prospects falls into your lap you don't pass it up. also I think Cleveland is a prime candidate to trade down because taking a #2 corner with the 6th pick doesn't seem like great value. they can pick up someone like Warmack or Eifert, even Rhodes if they do covet a guy to play opposite Haden.

By this same token, I think Tennessee, San Diego, or Tampa could move up a few spots to take Milliner after he makes it past 6. there isn't a lot of need for him from 7-9 but either might move up to make sure they get him before the other
I doubt Lane Johnson will still be there at #6, the 3 LT's could all be gone in the top 5 picks.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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I think it will be very difficult to pry picks loose from teams, this is a deep draft where getting 3 or 4 starters is not out of the equation and the separation in grading is minimal.
I think only a LT might get teams to trade up, all the other trades are simply too costly for gaining nothing in value. Sure, occasionally teams might move up a spot or 2 for somebody they love and can get cheaply, but major trades aren't likely in a draft this deep.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:38 AM    (permalink
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I doubt Lane Johnson will still be there at #6, the 3 LT's could all be gone in the top 5 picks.
the way I see it going right now is

Chiefs: Joeckel/Fisher
Jags: Smith/LEO DE (Ansah is my guess there)
Raiders: Floyd/Lotulelei
Eagles: Lotulelei/Floyd
Lions: Fisher/Joeckel
Browns: trade down

obviously the Eagles or even Jacksonville could screw that up by taking a tackle but if Johnson does make it to 6, Miami will try to move up agressively
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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4) The 49ers are lurking and need a starting FS. Could they move up for Vaccaro?
Possibly but just how high is the question ? How high will KV rank on our board and much of a drop off is there between KV and the next safety prospect on our board ? We have taken looks at Cyprien, Reid, Swearinger, Elam and Duke Williams to date. Nothing with KV yet.

Another potential player I think we could trade up for is Tavon Austin. If he finds himself in the mid teens we could start to look into moving up. Could we strike a deal with the Saints perhaps ? New Orleans I think, could be a potential trade partner for us regardless of whether it would be to move up for Vaccaro or Austin if they are on the board.

I also wonder if the Raiders may move out of 3 ? The Lions at 5 and even the Dolphins at 12 (with those 2 2nd rounders) certainly could be dance partners looking to move up for Joeckel/Fisher if one is still on the board.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:09 AM    (permalink
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i think we're in a rock solid position to move down i just pray to god we don't completely **** it up.

If you're moving up from 11 or 12 to 6 is it taking a second or third rounder to do it?

I would love to grab Warmack at 12.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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i think we're in a rock solid position to move down i just pray to god we don't completely **** it up.

If you're moving up from 11 or 12 to 6 is it taking a second or third rounder to do it?

I would love to grab Warmack at 12.
The Cowboys gave up a second to move up from 12 to 6 last year. Would probably be less this year though, the quality of player you would be moving up for would be less than Morris Claiborne.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:12 AM    (permalink
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Something I read that makes sense, a team that covets an interior DL (maybe Tampa, Carolina) may want to move ahead of Tennessee.
Why? Tennessee is deep at DT...

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the way I see it going right now is

Chiefs: Joeckel/Fisher
Jags: Smith/LEO DE (Ansah is my guess there)
Raiders: Floyd/Lotulelei
Eagles: Lotulelei/Floyd
Lions: Fisher/Joeckel
Browns: trade down

obviously the Eagles or even Jacksonville could screw that up by taking a tackle but if Johnson does make it to 6, Miami will try to move up agressively
A few things:

1) Sharrif Floyd to Jacksonville makes so much sense it's ridiculous. If they don't take Smith (or Fisher purely for BPA), they'll take Floyd. Andre Branch will probably get first crack at LEO.

2) I don't know if Star's stock is where the internet thinks it is. Not the heart issue, but just the fact that he doesn't project as a difference maker against the pass. That's today's NFL. McCoy and Suh were supremely disruptive against the pass. Star gets some sacks but he's not a game-changer in that sense. Just my instinct on his stock.

3) I just can't see a talent like Fisher falling all the way to five. Maybe someone trades up for him (OAK/MIA makes sense as someone mentioned). But if he's there at 4, I think Philly takes him.

4) I agree Cleveland will actively look to trade down. I suspect Milliner is not a slam dunk to them.

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Possibly but just how high is the question ? How high will KV rank on our board and much of a drop off is there between KV and the next safety prospect on our board ? We have taken looks at Cyprien, Reid, Swearinger, Elam and Duke Williams to date. Nothing with KV yet.

Another potential player I think we could trade up for is Tavon Austin. If he finds himself in the mid teens we could start to look into moving up. Could we strike a deal with the Saints perhaps ? New Orleans I think, could be a potential trade partner for us regardless of whether it would be to move up for Vaccaro or Austin if they are on the board.

I also wonder if the Raiders may move out of 3 ? The Lions at 5 and even the Dolphins at 12 (with those 2 2nd rounders) certainly could be dance partners looking to move up for Joeckel/Fisher if one is still on the board.
Agree with everything. Cyprien's a very good player but his strength isn't a FS and Whitner can't play that. But maybe Cyprien can make that adjustment like Barron. I forgot to mention the 49ers as a possibility for Austin.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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The Cowboys gave up a second to move up from 12 to 6 last year. Would probably be less this year though, the quality of player you would be moving up for would be less than Morris Claiborne.
I guess it depends if a team like Miami or San Diego values a long term LT prospect more than a corner though.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:33 AM    (permalink
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Why? Tennessee is deep at DT...
I could be wrong, but the impression I got was that if a guy like Floyd or Star was to fall the Titans could be interested. A position where they have some depth but could use an upgrade. I know some Titans fans were interested in Sheldon Richardson, too.

They seem like the first potential landing spot after the Eagles for a DT and those two seem to be the higher level players who are most likely to slip. If not the Titans, I guess you could say the same for the Bucs at 13. I'd just be surprised if one of those two were to slip that far.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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I guess it depends if a team like Miami or San Diego values a long term LT prospect more than a corner though.
Well if you say it like that, then yeah. You could also say it depends on if a team like Miami or San Diego values a LT prospect that is only going that high because of potential and a weak draft class more than the Cowboys valued an elite CB prospect.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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I could see the giants moving down if Barkley/Geno falls or they're gone and a team wants to snatch Nassib.

especially if the giants think Tank/Arthur Brown/Fluker will fall/be there later on.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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what teams will be interested in moving in the late first? Knowing Ozzie Newsome I think we will trade down this draft.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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I see the Vikings at 25 as one of the candidates to trade down as someone (Jax, Cleveland, Philly, Buffalo?) wants back into the 1st for a qb.
I think it's very likely the Vikings trade down. I would not be surprised if it ends up being pick 23 rather than 25 if they think they will get a decent amount more value for it.
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Old 04-06-2013, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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what teams will be interested in moving in the late first? Knowing Ozzie Newsome I think we will trade down this draft.
That's the hotspot for QBs, WRs, and CBs in this class. Plus, the last pick of the first is very valuable because it's the last pick of the night. A team may not want to wait to see if it can get Nassib/Barkley/Manuel/Patton/Woods/Banks/Rhodes/Alford later. Lacy or Bernard too.

Remember the Bucs traded into the late first for Martin last year. And the Giants took Wilson at 32.
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Old 04-06-2013, 01:01 PM    (permalink
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Not sure Lane Johnson should be talked about in the top 6, i guess Detroit could feel an urgency if the top 2 are gone.

Someone will probably trade back into the 1st for a QB but not seeing it being the Eagles or the Jags cause they seem willing to wait for next years QB class.

Not seeing why anyone would trade up for Kenny Vacarro.
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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I doubt Lane Johnson will still be there at #6, the 3 LT's could all be gone in the top 5 picks.

They need to trade to #3.
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Old 04-06-2013, 09:33 PM    (permalink
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1) Sharrif Floyd to Jacksonville makes so much sense it's ridiculous. If they don't take Smith (or Fisher purely for BPA), they'll take Floyd. Andre Branch will probably get first crack at LEO.
Ewwwwww... no thanks to Floyd at #2. Secondly, Branch hasn't done dick-all to deserve to get first crack at LEO especially since Babin's name is always brought up first in regards to it.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:23 PM    (permalink
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The Bears will definitely be looking to trade out. We don't have an obvious #1 need, we're lacking in depth, and we're missing a 3rd round pick from the Brandon Marshall trade.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:37 PM    (permalink
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I'd be very surprised if Philly doesn't draft an OT at 4.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:58 PM    (permalink
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i highly doubt the panthers are going to move because
a- Marty Hurney is no longer the GM
b- there are to many holes on this roster, and this team only has 5 picks because of Hunrey magic willing and dealing future draft picks.

the panthers will sit back and draft bpa at 14 unless somebody calls them with an offer trying to get ahead of NO or STL.
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