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Old 03-19-2014, 04:58 PM    (permalink
LizardKing51
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Default Nice articles

Details about Bridgewater's talents and game responsibilities:

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/02/teddy-...014-nfl-draft/

Bridgewater playing while injured and his leadership qualities:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaaf--...151713382.html

Q and A with his offensive coordinator and the questions NFL GMs and scouts have asked him about Bridgewater:

http://insiderlouisville.com/news/20...ng-elementary/
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Old 03-19-2014, 08:55 PM    (permalink
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Default Gloves

Bridgewater told reporters today that he would be wearing gloves in all his private workouts. I bet his agent told him to not wear them, though I'm sure Bridgewater would never say that publicly out of loyalty. He would say something along the lines of it was a group decision, etc. He has always worn them since high school except when it rains.

I think the Vikings would be smart to move up and take him. They have a lot of nice pieces in place on offense. I like Bortles, but I think Bridgewater will have a better NFL career.
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Old 03-19-2014, 09:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I actually think standard college stats are underused. They are a small part of the process.

If you can't accumulate stats at the college level, how will you at the pro level? If you can't uplift the play of your teammates to the point of getting results in college, how the hell will you when things get tougher?

I can't think of a single successful pro QB who didn't have stellar college stats besides Jay Cutler and the ultimate outlier of Brady (and Cutler's career has been only somewhat successful really).

Hm. Now I'm thinking about it. Great college numbers actually seem like a pre-req rather than a predictor.

In other words, if you have great college numbers that doesn't mean pro success. But without great college numbers you pretty much won't attain pro success.

Are there any examples that disprove this?

EDIT: Changed can't to won't.
You're on the money here. Success in college doesn't mean you'll have success in the NFL, but if you don't have success in college, you have almost no shot in the NFL. TE's would be the obvious exception - specifically TE's with basketball backgrounds. I said it in another post, but when looking at prospects, my big three factors are productivity, reliability, and athletic ability.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I actually think standard college stats are underused. They are a small part of the process.

If you can't accumulate stats at the college level, how will you at the pro level? If you can't uplift the play of your teammates to the point of getting results in college, how the hell will you when things get tougher?

I can't think of a single successful pro QB who didn't have stellar college stats besides Jay Cutler and the ultimate outlier of Brady (and Cutler's career has been only somewhat successful really).

Hm. Now I'm thinking about it. Great college numbers actually seem like a pre-req rather than a predictor.

In other words, if you have great college numbers that doesn't mean pro success. But without great college numbers you pretty much won't attain pro success.

Are there any examples that disprove this?

EDIT: Changed can't to won't.
Dan Marino had 17 TDs and 23 INTs his last year in college and averaged 203 yards per game. I wouldn't say that's to stellar.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:08 PM    (permalink
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Dan Marino had 17 TDs and 23 INTs his last year in college and averaged 203 yards per game. I wouldn't say that's to stellar.
Different era. Look at John Elways stats early in his NFL career. Terry Bradshaw was still playing when Marino was drafted. Look at his stats.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:15 PM    (permalink
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Dan Marino had 17 TDs and 23 INTs his last year in college and averaged 203 yards per game. I wouldn't say that's to stellar.

Marino had 37 TDs as a junior though(same number of picks).

Passing attacks in the 1970s and for much of the '80s were downfield vertical concepts. No teams really played the short game throwing the ball like Peyton did last season, except for Bill Walsh in Cincinnati and with SF.
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Old 03-19-2014, 10:41 PM    (permalink
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I don't think people really understand what a qb's "ceiling" really is at the NFL level.

Its all predicated on his mental processing ability and high his football IQ is and how fast he processes information.

Brady, Brees, Even Manning do not have extraordinary high physical ceilings (the first two arguable have both bottom half physical potential) however their mental acuity is so great that it makes up for physical deficiencies.

That is part of the reason why I think debates and question's about Bridgewater's ceiling are bunk. He has a very quick release and can make all the throws, thats all he really needs. Its his mental game and processing speed that matters the most. It doesn't matter how physically gifted you are if you can't pick up the game at a very high rate.

Drew Brees is on record for saying "80% of being a top level NFL qb is intangibles, 20% is physical ability"

If Bridgewater is a football savant as everyone says he is, he will be a great qb despite any perceived physical limitations
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Old 03-19-2014, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by worldtheofend View Post
I don't think people really understand what a qb's "ceiling" really is at the NFL level.

Its all predicated on his mental processing ability and high his football IQ is and how fast he processes information.

Brady, Brees, Even Manning do not have extraordinary high physical ceilings (the first two arguable have both bottom half physical potential) however their mental acuity is so great that it makes up for physical deficiencies.

That is part of the reason why I think debates and question's about Bridgewater's ceiling are bunk. He has a very quick release and can make all the throws, thats all he really needs. Its his mental game and processing speed that matters the most. It doesn't matter how physically gifted you are if you can't pick up the game at a very high rate.

Drew Brees is on record for saying "80% of being a top level NFL qb is intangibles, 20% is physical ability"

If Bridgewater is a football savant as everyone says he is, he will be a great qb despite any perceived physical limitations
I agree with Brees, the mental aspect of the position is about 80%, however, without the other 20%, your odds diminish significantly for any true success at the next level.

I've never seen anybody say, Bridgewater has the whole 80% package or there would never have even been a discussion about which QB is going #1. The fact that he has never been able to separate himself from Manziel and Bortles was always his intangibles. He has now added some physical limitations to his resume and if he cannot convince teams during his individual workouts that it was just a bad pro day, he could sink quite a bit.
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Old 03-19-2014, 11:23 PM    (permalink
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I agree with Brees, the mental aspect of the position is about 80%, however, without the other 20%, your odds diminish significantly for any true success at the next level.

I've never seen anybody say, Bridgewater has the whole 80% package or there would never have even been a discussion about which QB is going #1. The fact that he has never been able to separate himself from Manziel and Bortles was always his intangibles. He has now added some physical limitations to his resume and if he cannot convince teams during his individual workouts that it was just a bad pro day, he could sink quite a bit.
If this was true

Drew Brees 2nd rounder
Tom Brady 6th rounder
Aaron Rodgers- dropped till late 1st round
Joe Montana- 3rd rounder
Tony Romo- Undrafted

( I can go on and on as well)

All those qbs would have never been heard of...

Most of them had perceived physical limitations that people such as yourself would point out. You know what separates them at the next level????

1. Very high intelligence
2. Drive
3. Guts

Stuff that isn't easy to see

A lot of amateurs and people new to football fail to realize that physical talents are minimal at the qb position. You have to be highly intelligent and a quick thinker, first and foremost.

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Old 03-19-2014, 11:43 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by worldtheofend View Post
If this was true

Drew Brees 2nd rounder
Tom Brady 6th rounder
Aaron Rodgers- dropped till late 1st round
Joe Montana- 3rd rounder
Tony Romo- Undrafted

( I can go on and on as well)

All those qbs would have never been heard of...

Most of them had perceived physical limitations that people such as yourself would point out. You know what separates them at the next level????

1. Very high intelligence
2. Drive
3. Guts

Stuff that isn't easy to see

A lot of amateurs and people new to football fail to realize that physical talents are minimal at the qb position. You have to be highly intelligent and a quick thinker, first and foremost.
I don't get you point at all, I already agree that 80% that Brees mentions is true, that intangibles account for that much of a players success "I agree with Brees, the mental aspect of the position is about 80%". The QB's you listed, all dropped on draft day because of physical or mechanical limitations which they had to overcome to succeed. If they hadn't brought their 20% up to snuff, they might well have gone in a different direction with their careers. It isn't minimal, it was a huge part of their success as well.
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Old 03-19-2014, 11:58 PM    (permalink
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I don't get you point at all, I already agree that 80% that Brees mentions is true, that intangibles account for that much of a players success "I agree with Brees, the mental aspect of the position is about 80%". The QB's you listed, all dropped on draft day because of physical or mechanical limitations which they had to overcome to succeed. If they hadn't brought their 20% up to snuff, they might well have gone in a different direction with their careers. It isn't minimal, it was a huge part of their success as well.
All of them had very high intangibles yet were not #1 qbs or #1 picks. That contradicts your earlier statement:

"I've never seen anybody say, Bridgewater has the whole 80% package or there would never have even been a discussion about which QB is going #1."
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:01 AM    (permalink
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I don't get you point at all, I already agree that 80% that Brees mentions is true, that intangibles account for that much of a players success "I agree with Brees, the mental aspect of the position is about 80%". The QB's you listed, all dropped on draft day because of physical or mechanical limitations which they had to overcome to succeed. If they hadn't brought their 20% up to snuff, they might well have gone in a different direction with their careers. It isn't minimal, it was a huge part of their success as well.
What scouts and GMs use to evaluate pro prospects rarely is the determining factor for those said QBs once they get to the NFL.

Teams make bets on prospects being able to adapt and excel at the pro game based on measuring certain variables, but the fact is you never know because scouting a QB's mental game is so hard to do.

That's why teams hedge their bets on physical tools. Worst case scenario is a big, tall QB with a cannon arm will at least be an average NFL QB if his mental and conceptual game is subpar.

You need a MINIMUM of physical tools as a QB to be successful at the next level. By that I mean baseline NFL standard for arm strength and velocity.

After that, it's all from the neck up, study habits and a QB's innate feel for the pro game.

If Manziel fails, it won't be because he's short or lacks Kaepernick's arm.
If Bridgewater busts, it won't be because he's skinny and needs to wear gloves to throw a consistent ball.

If Bortles is out of the league in five years, it won't be because he's 6'5 and 235#.

That's why the position is so hard to scout because the most important aspects of playing QB at the NFL level are mostly projections being placed on college football players.

There are some QBs for instance where you figure if they didn't have freakish tools for the position, they wouldn't be in the league.

Vick/Cutler/Flacco, even Roethlisberger to an extent are prominent NFL QBs because of their scrambling ability or huge arms that allow them to still be productive players despite playing the position off-script.

Brees is totally correct in that nearly every NFL QB prospect has the tools to play at the NFL level. It's the other 80% that decides whether or not a QB prospect will ever be a good/great NFL QB.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:02 AM    (permalink
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What scouts and GMs use to evaluate pro prospects rarely is the determining factor for those said QBs once they get to the NFL.

Teams make bets on prospects being able to adapt and excel at the pro game based on measuring certain variables, but the fact is you never know because scouting a QB's mental game is so hard to do.

That's why teams hedge their bets on physical tools. Worst case scenario is a big, tall QB with a cannon arm will at least be an average NFL QB if his mental and conceptual game is subpar.

You need a MINIMUM of physical tools as a QB to be successful at the next level. By that I mean baseline NFL standard for arm strength and velocity.

After that, it's all from the neck up, study habits and a QB's innate feel for the pro game.

If Manziel fails, it won't be because he's short or lacks Kaepernick's arm.
If Bridgewater busts, it won't be because he's skinny and needs to wear gloves to throw a consistent ball.

If Bortles is out of the league in five years, it won't be because he's 6'5 and 235#.

That's why the position is so hard to scout because the most important aspects of playing QB at the NFL level are mostly projections being placed on college football players.

There are some QBs for instance where you figure if they didn't have freakish tools for the position, they wouldn't be in the league.

Vick/Cutler/Flacco, even Roethlisberger to an extent are prominent NFL QBs because of their scrambling ability or huge arms that allow them to still be productive players despite playing the position off-script.

Brees is totally correct in that nearly every NFL QB prospect has the tools to play at the NFL level. It's the other 80% that decides whether or not a QB prospect will ever be a good/great NFL QB.
I think that is what separates the great talent appraisers from the mediocre, the great ones have that special talent to see into a players character, unfortunately, it is a rare ability and explains why bottom feeders account for most of the flops in any draft year.

I coached baseball for 25 years and took a lot of pride in being able to spot talent and match it up with character, to see who had the potential to be a productive player. I was very successful as a coach and believed that ability had a lot to do with it.

If your team is lucky enough to get that special talent appraiser, your team will be golden for a long time, if you get say another Matt Millen, god help you.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:05 AM    (permalink
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When I saw this happening to Clowney I was so thankful that Teddy was bulletproof, and a lock for #1, but y'all just got bored with him like you got bored with Clowney. I hate it so much.
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Old 03-20-2014, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by worldtheofend View Post
If this was true

Drew Brees 2nd rounder
Tom Brady 6th rounder
Aaron Rodgers- dropped till late 1st round
Joe Montana- 3rd rounder
Tony Romo- Undrafted

( I can go on and on as well)

All those qbs would have never been heard of...

Most of them had perceived physical limitations that people such as yourself would point out. You know what separates them at the next level????

1. Very high intelligence
2. Drive
3. Guts

Stuff that isn't easy to see

A lot of amateurs and people new to football fail to realize that physical talents are minimal at the qb position. You have to be highly intelligent and a quick thinker, first and foremost.
Huh...

Drew Brees was barely 6' tall. There was almost no track record for QBs of that height being successful. His college tape was so good that he still went very high in the draft. You want to say he's physically limited? He's as accurate as any player who has ever played the game. His ball placement is unreal. That's talent, and he perfected that in the pros. But he orchestrated a great offensive passing attack at Purdue and put Purdue in a Rose Bowl. Purdue. If he was 6'3" he wouldn't have been a second round pick. I'll explain below why he went in round two.

Tom Brady physically developed in the NFL. His arm strength improved along with his frame. Not to mention, he is as technically sound as any QB out there. There is no way to project such a physical transformation, but it sounds like you did. He couldn't even keep his starting job in college. He is an anomaly. Unless you want to say that every single QB has potential to be the next Tom Brady... Because that's basically what your professional opinion is.

Aaron Rodgers dropped? That's not news, what's your point?

I could go on and on...


Player evaluation is basically about measuring risk and weighing that against potential reward. If a player lacks potential, he is likely to "fall" or be downgraded by most. If a player has pure physical talent but has questionable work ethic / desire, he is likely to be downgraded by some.

A great majority of the time talent supersedes all. That's why a higher pick is more valuable. The talented guys get drafted quickly. Earth shattering news isn't it?

If you want to bet on Teddy Bridgewater physically developing at the next level and reforming his technique to improve his arm strength, then you should realize that is a projection. And with projections you have to realize there is a risk of failure.

I can name a longer list of QBs with average arm strength that never saw their arm strength improve in the NFL, and that physical limitation prevented them from making an NFL roster, being a starter, playing like a Pro Bowl player, etc.
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I could possibly see Matthew Stafford Dropping out of the 1st round
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Tahj Boyd has the best fundamentals of any QB in this class, I think his game translates great to the NFL.
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Old 03-20-2014, 10:02 AM    (permalink
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I don't think people really understand what a qb's "ceiling" really is at the NFL level.

Its all predicated on his mental processing ability and high his football IQ is and how fast he processes information.

Brady, Brees, Even Manning do not have extraordinary high physical ceilings (the first two arguable have both bottom half physical potential) however their mental acuity is so great that it makes up for physical deficiencies.

That is part of the reason why I think debates and question's about Bridgewater's ceiling are bunk. He has a very quick release and can make all the throws, thats all he really needs. Its his mental game and processing speed that matters the most. It doesn't matter how physically gifted you are if you can't pick up the game at a very high rate.

Drew Brees is on record for saying "80% of being a top level NFL qb is intangibles, 20% is physical ability"

If Bridgewater is a football savant as everyone says he is, he will be a great qb despite any perceived physical limitations
Alex Smith disagrees.

I agree with your overall premise, but you still need the physical skills. There are some awfully smart backup and 3rd string QBs out there.
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Old 03-20-2014, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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All of them had very high intangibles yet were not #1 qbs or #1 picks. That contradicts your earlier statement:

"I've never seen anybody say, Bridgewater has the whole 80% package or there would never have even been a discussion about which QB is going #1."
We don't know if TB has Brees/Brady level football IQ, guts etc. yet. He might, but just because he might drop in the draft(which I don't think he will) doesn't make him Brees or Rodgers automatically.
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Old 03-20-2014, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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Huh...

Drew Brees was barely 6' tall. There was almost no track record for QBs of that height being successful. His college tape was so good that he still went very high in the draft. You want to say he's physically limited? He's as accurate as any player who has ever played the game. His ball placement is unreal. That's talent, and he perfected that in the pros. But he orchestrated a great offensive passing attack at Purdue and put Purdue in a Rose Bowl. Purdue. If he was 6'3" he wouldn't have been a second round pick. I'll explain below why he went in round two.

Tom Brady physically developed in the NFL. His arm strength improved along with his frame. Not to mention, he is as technically sound as any QB out there. There is no way to project such a physical transformation, but it sounds like you did. He couldn't even keep his starting job in college. He is an anomaly. Unless you want to say that every single QB has potential to be the next Tom Brady... Because that's basically what your professional opinion is.

Aaron Rodgers dropped? That's not news, what's your point?

I could go on and on...


Player evaluation is basically about measuring risk and weighing that against potential reward. If a player lacks potential, he is likely to "fall" or be downgraded by most. If a player has pure physical talent but has questionable work ethic / desire, he is likely to be downgraded by some.

A great majority of the time talent supersedes all. That's why a higher pick is more valuable. The talented guys get drafted quickly. Earth shattering news isn't it?

If you want to bet on Teddy Bridgewater physically developing at the next level and reforming his technique to improve his arm strength, then you should realize that is a projection. And with projections you have to realize there is a risk of failure.

I can name a longer list of QBs with average arm strength that never saw their arm strength improve in the NFL, and that physical limitation prevented them from making an NFL roster, being a starter, playing like a Pro Bowl player, etc.
You contradicted your first paragraph and your last couple.

Brees was not physically talented but his mental grasp of the game made up for perceived physical short comings, that what it ultimately comes down to.
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Old 03-20-2014, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Alex Smith disagrees.

I agree with your overall premise, but you still need the physical skills. There are some awfully smart backup and 3rd string QBs out there.
All physical tools do is make up for the margin of error in the mental game.

For example:

When a qb makes a read, he has to be able to process what defense is doing and his receivers route very quickly (accounting for rushers as well)

A qb with an arm strength of a 6 out of 9 has a smaller margin of error in making the read and throw than a qb with an arm strength of 9 out of 9.

Both qbs can make the throw but the qb with the arm strength of 9 out of 9 can take an extra half second in his mental process because he can get the ball to his wide receivers quicker than the 6 out of 9 guy. The 6 out of 9 guy has to be a quicker processor of information to make that throw.

The weaker armed you are the more mentally efficient you need to be.

Qbs like Christian Ponder don't succeed because of lack of physical tools, they don't succeed because they don't have the mental game to make up for their lack of physical tools.
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Old 03-20-2014, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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There are good and bad examples on both sides and I feel like it is a very fragile balance you have to strike. You can be a physical beast but not understand what is happening and flame out (JaMarcus Russell/David Carr) or you can be a technician and master of the game with no arm and no size and do nothing but be a great locker room addition/career clipboard holder (Alex Van Pelt/Ty Detmer). You must have a good portion of both things going for you to truly be successful. You also have to be put in a situation where you can flourish and succeed (which you might make an argument for Russell and Carr that they never got that).
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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All physical tools do is make up for the margin of error in the mental game.

For example:

When a qb makes a read, he has to be able to process what defense is doing and his receivers route very quickly (accounting for rushers as well)

A qb with an arm strength of a 6 out of 9 has a smaller margin of error in making the read and throw than a qb with an arm strength of 9 out of 9.

Both qbs can make the throw but the qb with the arm strength of 9 out of 9 can take an extra half second in his mental process because he can get the ball to his wide receivers quicker than the 6 out of 9 guy. The 6 out of 9 guy has to be a quicker processor of information to make that throw.

The weaker armed you are the more mentally efficient you need to be.

Qbs like Christian Ponder don't succeed because of lack of physical tools, they don't succeed because they don't have the mental game to make up for their lack of physical tools.
Your stating the obvious but as Nastradamis said, there are plenty of great backup QB's with a huge mental ability and superb intangibles who cannot start for very long, because their physical abilities are just not there. Even if intangibles are 80% of a QB's ability to succeed, the other 20% is just as crucial in a lot of cases.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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Your stating the obvious but as Nastradamis said, there are plenty of great backup QB's with a huge mental ability and superb intangibles who cannot start for very long, because their physical abilities are just not there. Even if intangibles are 80% of a QB's ability to succeed, the other 20% is just as crucial in a lot of cases.
Its rare when a qb doesn't have the other 20%
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:28 PM    (permalink
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Its rare when a qb doesn't have the other 20%
Sorry, but it is a lot more common than you think or every National Championship QB would be a star in the NFL. Solid physical ability for a QB is actually quite rare, which is why QB's are so hard to find. Most college QB's are leaders with pretty solid intangibles, the position attracts that kind of athlete, but physical ability is rare among them and even if it only accounts for 20% of their success at the next level, without it, you are probably doomed to mediocrity.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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Who are these 'gifted' analytical, split-second decision making QBs with an innate feel for the game who are backups because they have meager tools??

Most backup QBs are backups because their mental or physical assets aren't good enough to start for a team in the NFL.

Sure there are young guys like Mallet who just haven't been given an opportunity, but for the most part there aren't potential top 10 QB in the NFL sitting on the bench because they lack the tools to hold down a starting gig.

I forgot to mention a critical skill for any QB is being able to throw an accurate football, IMO more important than arm strength.

Some guys like Rex Grossman simply lack this skill, but if he had it he'd probably still be a starter somewhere(also if he were a better decision maker for 4 quarters.)
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Old 03-20-2014, 11:06 PM    (permalink
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[quote=FUNBUNCHER;3599604]Who are these 'gifted' analytical, split-second decision making QBs with an innate feel for the game who are backups because they have meager tools??

Most backup QBs are backups because their mental or physical assets aren't good enough to start for a team in the NFL.

Isn't both statements a contradiction, meager tools and physical assets seem to be the same to me.

Most backup QB's in the NFL are kept around because they are strong mentally and have solid intangibles. They just don't have the arm strength to make every NFL throw. Sure, a few are like Mallett who is kept because he has real potential, but the backup who have been around for a while aren't usually in that class.

Most NFL backup QB's are high character guys who can come in for a game or 2 and be productive, because they work hard at their craft and can do all the little things well. However, if they have to play more than a couple of games as a starter, their lack of even average tools, will sooner or later, expose these weaknesses and they won't perform very well. I'd say around 80% of backup QB's fill this description.
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