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Old 05-22-2013, 07:24 AM    (permalink
Ness
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Old 05-22-2013, 09:30 AM    (permalink
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Right, bc more playing time ALWAYS means more contributions right?

So I guess a pinch hitter who hit 1 home run his one time at bat should have hit like 150 home runs on the season right? I mean after all, just extrapolate the numbers over more time and you have your answer right?

I hope you realize that Graham isn't even gonna be a starter this year. Which makes this whole debate even more hilarious.
All signs from OTAs point to Graham as a starter as the Predator rusher.

The only one who could remotely be considered "ahead" of him is Trent Cole, whose deficiencies in coverage would push Graham ahead of him in the rotation.
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Old 05-22-2013, 09:39 AM    (permalink
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Reminder. Antoine Winfield is the Seahawks nickel back.
I know, that's a very nice addition to their depth at DB.
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Old 05-22-2013, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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what does "top" mean? And how do you compare a RGs impact to a LBs? They do different things. I really just fail to understand these lists.

It's a funny joke to say that the player with the most impact on any given play isn't a QB.
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Old 05-22-2013, 10:15 AM    (permalink
cmarq83
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what does "top" mean? And how do you compare a RGs impact to a LBs? They do different things. I really just fail to understand these lists.

It's a funny joke to say that the player with the most impact on any given play isn't a QB.
I don't think the list's intention is at all to determine value. It's merely attempting to gauge a person's performance relative to his position.
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Old 05-22-2013, 10:21 AM    (permalink
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I approve of the people at PFF for recognizing the awesomeness that is Cameron Wake. That is all.
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Old 05-22-2013, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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PFF is way to off the wall...they get a lot of "I approve of so and so making this list because hez soooper underrated"

In reference to the first post, Earl Thomas is awesome, and Pouncey has been a tremendous addition to the steelers offensive line. Justin Hartwig has not played in 3 years and still leads the league in sacks given up for a center over the last 6 years, THATS how far ahead he was
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Old 05-22-2013, 02:47 PM    (permalink
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PFF is overrated. It is fun for discussions but shouldn't be taken as infalable. Just because they watch every play doesn't make them absolute.
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Old 05-23-2013, 07:36 AM    (permalink
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Man this thread really blew up in AcheTen's face.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Old 05-23-2013, 09:33 AM    (permalink
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Only if you don't understand the difference between "per play" value and cumulative value.

Brandon Graham was the better player on a per play basis, and nothing in this list disputes that.

This list measures cumulative value/contributions to the team, however, and because of that, PFF ranks Pierre Paul higher simply because he played twice as many snaps.

If Graham had played the same number of snaps as Pierre Paul, Graham would be ranked much higher and probably in the top-10 or top-15.

I mean, really, are you people that dumb that you don't understand the difference between "per play" value and cumulative value?
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Old 05-23-2013, 09:50 AM    (permalink
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Do you really believe that if Brandon Graham had played the same number of snaps as JPP his per play value would have stayed the same? Because it wouldn't.
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Old 05-23-2013, 09:57 AM    (permalink
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Do you really believe that if Brandon Graham had played the same number of snaps as JPP his per play value would have stayed the same? Because it wouldn't.
The same argument was made against Cameron Wake being made a starter when he was only a part-time player, and he turned his full-time stats into a perfect extrapolation of his part-time stats.

I don't see why Graham can't have similar per-play snaps playing a whole season. We won't know for sure until he does play a full season's snaps, but I'm confident that he can have the same success as Cameron Wake.
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Old 05-23-2013, 09:58 AM    (permalink
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hush, extrapolating statistics will *always* give you an exact set of numbers that the player would have reached if he'd played more games. unless you don't like those numbers, then they'd be different. or if the player is on the eagles, or something.

but i dunno, i mean, PFF still says JPP is better than Graham, so I have to assume it's true. i mean, they watched all the plays. surely Graham would've shown enough to be more valuable than JPP in those plays, even if there were a few less of them, because JPP sucks completely, right? i guess i'm saying i don't know what to think anymore. hopefully PFF releases some new statistics soon to tell me what i should think, because they're really the only people who should ever be discussing football.
Do you even understand the purpose of this list? It's showing CUMULATIVE contribution. Pierre Paul is only ranked higher because he played more snaps. Graham is still valued more highly on PFF's website on per-play stats - he had a higher Pass Rush Pressure rating and was ranked higher in their DE rankings.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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The same argument was made against Cameron Wake being made a starter when he was only a part-time player, and he turned his full-time stats into a perfect extrapolation of his part-time stats.

I don't see why Graham can't have similar per-play snaps playing a whole season. We won't know for sure until he does play a full season's snaps, but I'm confident that he can have the same success as Cameron Wake.


...Thumper? idk, ill have to ask PFF, theyre like a modern magic 8 ball baby, got an answer for everything.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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If Graham had played the same number of snaps as Pierre Paul, Graham would be ranked much higher and probably in the top-10 or top-15.

I mean, really, are you people that dumb that you don't understand the difference between "per play" value and cumulative value?
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We won't know for sure until he does play a full season's snaps, but I'm confident that he can have the same success as Cameron Wake.
You seem to be contradicting yourself there. In one statement you say definitively that Graham would be a top 15 player had he been a full time starter, now you're backtracking say we won't know for sure.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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You seem to be contradicting yourself there. In one statement you say definitively that Graham would be a top 15 player had he been a full time starter, now you're backtracking say we won't know for sure.
I'm saying that there's a strong likelhood. Obviously, nothing in life is certain.

I'd give it an 85% chance that Graham maintains his stats over a full season if given the chance to start.

That doesn't change the fact that he was better on a per-play basis last year.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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I'm saying that there's a strong likelhood. Obviously, nothing in life is certain.

I'd give it an 85% chance that Graham maintains his stats over a full season if given the chance to start.

That doesn't change the fact that he was better on a per-play basis last year.
But the smaller the sample size the harder it is to get a true reading. Ryan Mallett threw 4 passes last year, completed 1 and had 1 picked off. If anyone is saying that extrapolating that for an entire season he will be a 25% passer who gets picked off one in every 4 throws then he wouldn't be in the league.

I don't need any amount of stats to tell me that JPP was a better player than Graham last year. The problem with using stats as the be all, end all is they don't paint a true picture.

For instance,

Player X rushed the passer on 20 snaps and registered 1 pressure

Player Y rushed the passer on 5 snaps and registered 2 pressures

Those stats don't tell you anything. Was player X doubled? Chipped? Were those 20 pass attempts 3 step throws? Did player Y get a free run at the QB who was attempting a slow developing play? Was player X rushing against Orlando Pace in his prime and was player Y being blocked by Danny Woodhead?

Stats mean nothing if they aren't put into a proper context. Saying this player generated pressure on 7.3% of attempts etc while this player generated pressure 9.1% of times etc doesn't mean that the second guy is necessarily better
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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But the smaller the sample size the harder it is to get a true reading. Ryan Mallett threw 4 passes last year, completed 1 and had 1 picked off. If anyone is saying that extrapolating that for an entire season he will be a 25% passer who gets picked off one in every 4 throws then he wouldn't be in the league.
You can't compare a QB who threw 4 passes to a DE that played 440 snaps. (Pierre Paul played 950 snaps so roughly twice as many as Graham).



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I don't need any amount of stats to tell me that JPP was a better player than Graham last year. The problem with using stats as the be all, end all is they don't paint a true picture.

For instance,

Player X rushed the passer on 20 snaps and registered 1 pressure

Player Y rushed the passer on 5 snaps and registered 2 pressures

Those stats don't tell you anything. Was player X doubled? Chipped? Were those 20 pass attempts 3 step throws? Did player Y get a free run at the QB who was attempting a slow developing play? Was player X rushing against Orlando Pace in his prime and was player Y being blocked by Danny Woodhead?

Stats mean nothing if they aren't put into a proper context. Saying this player generated pressure on 7.3% of attempts etc while this player generated pressure 9.1% of times etc doesn't mean that the second guy is necessarily better
Stats tell a broad picture. In the end, those instances where a DE is blocked by Danny Woodhead will be balanced out by situations where he was blocked by both a TE and an OT.

And additionally, I think you misunderstand what PFF does. They actually *DO* watch every snap every player played, and grade him on his performance. PFF's grade for Graham as a DE (and high ranking) is based on watching him beat OTs in both the pass and run game.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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that's a cool story, but they still rated him higher, and they're still the only ones qualified to discuss football. i don't know why you're trying to back out of your own arguments now. but keep putting all your marbles in the 'pressure' thing, i'm sure that'll work out well.
You do realize that PFF has other rankings on its site than just this particular list of cumulative contribution, right?

It's like saying "well RB Michael Turner ran for 1500 yards on 5 billion carries, so he must be better than Jammal Charles who ran for only 1200 yards but did it at 6.0 ypc on far fewer carries."

There are different ways of measuring a player's contributions. Turner banged out more raw yardage, but did it on many more snaps. Charles was the far more efficient player and contributed nearly as much on far fewer snaps. Charles probably has more raw talent than Turner, but in that given year, Turner technically contributed more raw yardage than Charles did.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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Stats tell a broad picture. In the end, those instances where a DE is blocked by Danny Woodhead will be balanced out by situations where he was blocked by both a TE and an OT.

And additionally, I think you misunderstand what PFF does. They actually *DO* watch every snap every player played, and grade him on his performance. PFF's grade for Graham as a DE (and high ranking) is based on watching him beat OTs in both the pass and run game.
But they don't tell a broad picture.

JPP is the focus of every offensive coordinator when they play the Giants. Offensive gameplans are devised around limiting his effectiveness through doubling him, sliding protection his way. Graham doesn't get the same treatment. Plus Graham played in a Wide 9 scheme last year which is designed to give him a more free run to the QB. JPP doesn't get the same luxury, at least not to the extent Graham did.

I don't have the stats to back this up but I would be willing to bet that despite having twice as many snaps JPP likely was singled blocked less than Graham.

And those instances where a guy is blocked by a RB don't equal out over the season. You think Anthony Spencer saw the same type of blocking over the season that Demarcus Ware did?
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:33 AM    (permalink
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rudy played one college snap at DE.
He got a sack.
Why didnt he go first overall again? if you extrapolate that thats a lot of ******* sacks.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:34 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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But they don't tell a broad picture.

JPP is the focus of every offensive coordinator when they play the Giants. Offensive gameplans are devised around limiting his effectiveness through doubling him, sliding protection his way. Graham doesn't get the same treatment. Plus Graham played in a Wide 9 scheme last year which is designed to give him a more free run to the QB. JPP doesn't get the same luxury, at least not to the extent Graham did.
How do you know that? Do you talk to NFL defensive coordinators? Do you sit in on film room sessions with these guys? There is no evidence that Pierre Paul gets far more attention than someone like Graham. Show me film of it, or a quote from an NFL coach, and I'll believe it, but until then, you're just making things up.

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I don't have the stats to back this up but I would be willing to bet that despite having twice as many snaps JPP likely was singled blocked less than Graham.
Again, you have no evidence of this and are just spouting things to support your viewpoint.

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And those instances where a guy is blocked by a RB don't equal out over the season. You think Anthony Spencer saw the same type of blocking over the season that Demarcus Ware did?
This idea of "special attention" is often overblown. If you listen to guys like Greg Cosell talk, it's a small percentage of plays in which any DE, star or not star, is double-teamed or worse.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:37 AM    (permalink
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How do you know that? Do you talk to NFL defensive coordinators? Do you sit in on film room sessions with these guys?
How do you know Graham would have kept that pace up over a whole season? do you have any evidence besides projecting what he might have done? No. You dont.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:37 AM    (permalink
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Thank god I have something like this to entertain me at work today.
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Jesse realizing Walt was Santa Claus could really shake things up.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:39 AM    (permalink
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Thank god I have something like this to entertain me at work today.
are you sure it will entertain you? If you extrapolate it out over time following its current average you will say 'yes,' but if you actually stay here for the next 5+ hours and keep reading this i have my doubts as to your ability to maintain your level of entertainment. one can only handle so much stupidity.

Then again, following AcheTen's rules, you will be exactly as entertained later as you are now because the performance of this thread will not peter out in time.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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