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Old 02-05-2014, 04:19 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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Default gpngc's 2013 NFL QB Rankings

Last year's rankings:

http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=55548


Now that the season is over, here are my rankings for top QBs in the NFL. This is extremely subjective, obviously.

The Breakdown:

35% 2013 performance
15% Career performance to date
10% Projected career performance (trajectory/upside)
8% Raw arm talent (5% accuracy/touch, 3% pure arm strength)
8% Decision-making/ability to read and manipulate coverages
8% Team success
8% Intangibles/leadership qualities/making those around him better
3% Mobility within the pocket/scrambling ability
3% Clutch history
2% Ability as a runner
2% Durability (I assume every player is healthy for this list)

*When you add everything up together the question that this list answers is this: Which QB would you rather have right now, today, to play one game, assuming full health and ideal circumstances in terms of offense and supporting cast for that player. How much time to prepare, what exactly the made up opponent would be, and if the question is changed to 'for one full season' should not affect the ranking.


2013 NFL QB Rankings
1) Peyton Manning
2) Aaron Rodgers
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Ben Roethlisberger
6) Philip Rivers
7) Russell Wilson
8) Andrew Luck
9) Cam Newton
10) Joe Flacco
11) Tony Romo
12) Matt Ryan
13) Colin Kaepernick
14) Nick Foles
15) Eli Manning
16) Matthew Stafford
17) Andy Dalton
18) Jay Cutler
19) Alex Smith
20) Carson Palmer
21) Robert Griffin III
22) Sam Bradford
23) Ryan Tannehill
24) Josh McCown
25) Matt Schuab
26) E.J. Manuel
27) Brian Hoyer
28) Jason Campbell
29) Jake Locker
30) Mike Glennon
31) Shaun Hill
32) Ryan Mallett
33) Ryan Fitzpatrick
34) Michael Vick
35) Matt Cassel
36) Mark Sanchez
37) Geno Smith
38) Matt Flynn
39) Case Keenum
40) Chad Henne
41) Terrelle Pryor
42) Thad Lewis
43) Christian Ponder
44) Josh Freeman
45) Brandon Weeden
46) Blaine Gabbert
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:25 PM    (permalink
Caulibflower
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Ability as a runner needs to be more than 2%. Sorry if that's not your preference, but with players like RGIII, Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, and even Luck, you've got to give them more credit for picking up yards and first downs on a regular basis as well as being able to extend plays. It has a lot to do with their team success, which is the heart of the matter, IMO, as far as ranking players goes.

Edit: or be able to give them a bonus, or something. It clearly gives them a major advantage in many instances.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:28 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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Ability as a runner needs to be more than 2%. Sorry if that's not your preference, but with players like RGIII, Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, and even Luck, you've got to give them more credit for picking up yards and first downs on a regular basis as well as being able to extend plays.
I did a copy and paste from last year and thought the same thing while re-reading it. It's true.

However, scrambling ability is part of an 8%, so mobility is rewarded there also.

But I think my rankings reflect that idea with some of those guy (they are all ranked pretty high).

The thing about the number 2% is that, if you think about it numerically, Rivers or Manning are being graded from 1-98. If it was say, 5, they'd be graded from 1-95. That's a pretty damn big disadvantage.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:43 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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Hmm, I feel Glennon is a bit low. He performed better than guys like Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer, his career trajectory is better, his arm talent is better, and both the Browns and Bucs sucked. Those guys may beat him in mobility but I don't really see why he is so low.

I also hate Ryan Mallett's ranking. He did nothing in 2013. He did nothing in his entire career. He has had no impact on his team's success. You have no way of judging his clutch ability, decision making, intangibles, or even durability. Plus he is a statue in the pocket. So even if you think he will eventually be the best QB in the league and has the best arm talent (neither of which is true), that's 18%.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:44 PM    (permalink
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College.

As for Glennon, he played horribly down the stretch. That's a bad sign. You want to see improvement, not regression, from a young QB.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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brandon weeden doesn't deserve to beat even blaine gabbert at anything other than having the reddest pubes
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:00 PM    (permalink
Bob Sanders Dreadlock
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If 2013 success is a big factor Flacco is way to high.
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:01 PM    (permalink
Jcn92
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I don't get Bradford being ahead of Tannehill. Tannehill did decent considering he had one of the worst lines in the league blocking for him, no running game, and his TE was out for the year.

Bradford didn't play the entire year, and even in the games he played in he didn't really wow. He had two three touchdown games, but one of them was against the Jaguars and the other he had less than 120 yards passing and all his TDs were from inside the five yard line.

When you compared Tannehill and Bradford using your measurements Tannehill is better than Bradford in several of them. Projected career performance: Bradford's a FA and is coming off a torn ACL. Ability as a runner: Tannehill is better. Team success: Tannehill's team finished with a better record and was a game away from the playoffs. Bradford's team finished below 500 and in games he started they were 3-4. 2013: Performance: Tannehill easily had a more impressive season than Bradford.
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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I don't get how Sanchez beat Geno either lol. Smith wasn't great but Sanchez didn't even take a snap. Based off that alone Smith had a better 2013 and I'd have to think he's got a better projected career performance. Not to mention in one season and in his career at West Va he has proven to be more durable than Sanchez. Also I would say he is a better runner than Sanchez and has better mobility.
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:14 PM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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College.

As for Glennon, he played horribly down the stretch. That's a bad sign. You want to see improvement, not regression, from a young QB.
Meh, I always find the Mallett love funny. He was a 3rd round pick. By virtue of sitting on the bench for three years, people now think he's worth a 1st or second. I'd honestly be surprised if he is ever more than a spot starter.

As for Glennon, I wouldn't say he was horrible. He still had more TDs than picks and played better than guys who were sitting on the bench injured.

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brandon weeden doesn't deserve to beat even blaine gabbert at anything other than having the reddest pubes
That is easy to say because Weeden sucks, but people who watch the Jaguars weekly (me unfortunately) know the truth. Gabbert was abysmal this year. Sub 50% completion, 1:7 TD:INT ratio, and he led one of the worst offensive performances of all time in his 3 starts. Gabbert may have a bit more physical talent, but from a performance point of view (which is 50%) Weeden blows him out of the water. That is how bad Gabbert is.

He isn't durable, he isn't clutch, he has no intangibles, his performance and future trajectory is awful, and his team is awful. He has below average arm talent (slightly above average strength, awful accuracy), running ability I'd say he's 18th, and pocket mobility is non-existant. So basically, he gets about a 10 out of 100 on 92% of the grading scale and about a 50 on the other 8%. That comes out to a 13 out of 100. Weeden sucks, but he isn't that bad.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:26 PM    (permalink
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I don't think Bradford's special but he's really not a bad player at all. Tannehill is an average QB. I will admit he doesn't have much of a running game but he hasn't had much success or consistency.

With a chance for the playoffs, he led his offense to 7 points COMBINED the last two weeks of this past season. That's not a good way to finish off year 2.

As for Mallett, I never said I'd give a first or second for any QB near his ranking. I just think he'd place there if given a chance to start. It's not even high at all. I think he'd be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm not calling him a top QB or anywhere near that.

Weeden's not good, but he's better than Gabbert.
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Old 02-05-2014, 08:41 PM    (permalink
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I decided to rate the top 50 QBs. I was really surprised how high Rivers was. But when 2013 performance is rated so much, that really helps. An average starter (ranked 16th in each category) would be a 70, completely average (25) would be a 50, and a starter (32nd in everything) would be a 40. So Matthew Stafford is an average starter, Sam Bradford is just plain average, and Matt Schaub should be the last choice starter. Also, based on this metric, there are only 31 starting quality QBs in the league.

1. Tom Brady- 91.36
2. Peyton Manning- 91.08
3. Drew Brees- 89.98
4. Russell Wilson- 88.94
5. Andrew Luck- 85.74
6. Aaron Rodgers- 84.5
7. Collin Kaepernick- 83.76
8. Tony Romo- 83.4
9. Ben Roethlisberger- 82.62
10. Phillip Rivers- 79.72
11. Matt Ryan- 79.76
12. Nick Foles- 77.98
13. Joe Flacco- 76
14. Cam Newton- 74.86
15. Andy Dalton- 73.6
16. Matthew Stafford- 69.48
17. Eli Manning- 69.46
18. Alex Smith- 69.16
19. Ryan Tannehill- 68.12
20. Jay Cutler- 65.06
21. Robert Griffin- 61.14
22. Carson Palmer- 60.24
23. Mike Glennon- 54.12
24. Sam Bradford- 52.54
25. Jake Locker- 48.78
26. Josh McCown- 48.04
27. EJ Manuel- 44.48
28. Geno Smith- 43.58
29- Michael Vick- 43.4
30. Chad Henne- 41.34
31. Matt Schaub- 40.52
32. Jason Campbell- 35.82
33. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 34.2
34. Matt Cassell- 29.22
35. Christian Ponder- 28.68
36. Matt Flynn- 28.1
37. Case Keenum- 27.02
38. Josh Freeman- 26.96
39. Mark Sanchez- 26.58
40. Kellen Clemens- 26.44
41. Kirk Cousins- 25.82
42. Kyle Orton- 25.8
43. Brian Hoyer- 24.08
44. Terrell Pryor- 23.8
45. Brandon Weeden- 23.06
46. Brock Osweiler- 15.92
47. Thad Lewis- 13.8
48. Matt McGloin- 13.8
49. Ryan Mallett- 13.06
50. Blaine Gabbert- 12.64
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-05-2014, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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I don't get how Sanchez beat Geno either lol. Smith wasn't great but Sanchez didn't even take a snap. Based off that alone Smith had a better 2013 and I'd have to think he's got a better projected career performance. Not to mention in one season and in his career at West Va he has proven to be more durable than Sanchez. Also I would say he is a better runner than Sanchez and has better mobility.
Sanchez is better than Geno in career stats (15%), team success (8%), and maybe decision making (8%). That adds up to 31%. there really isn't an argument for Sanchez over Geno unless you think he has better arm talent (he doesn't) and a better career projection (I suppose one could think that).
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-05-2014, 09:22 PM    (permalink
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Surprised to still see Flacco so high. The team had a bad year all around and he had a bad showing as well. Flacco can be a good player, but he isn't a guy who can elevate bad talent like the elite guys can. He needs protection to be successful even though his very underrated in his mobility.
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Old 02-05-2014, 10:13 PM    (permalink
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Flacco has a decent career projection. Good career numbers, great team success, solid arm talent, and clutch factor.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-05-2014, 10:55 PM    (permalink
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Flacco doesn't have much arm talent. He can chuck it deep and started having success when the Ravens found someone who can run his ball down (Smith) and someone who can make up for what would normally be overthrows (Pitta).
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Old 02-05-2014, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Ryan Mallett didn't throw a single pass this season, and is somehow on this list.

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Old 02-05-2014, 11:21 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc
2013 NFL QB Rankings
1) Peyton Manning
2) Aaron Rodgers
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Ben Roethlisberger
6) Philip Rivers
7) Russell Wilson
8) Andrew Luck
9) Cam Newton
10) Joe Flacco
11) Tony Romo
12) Matt Ryan
13) Colin Kaepernick
14) Nick Foles
15) Eli Manning
16) Matthew Stafford
17) Andy Dalton
18) Jay Cutler
19) Alex Smith
20) Carson Palmer
21) Robert Griffin III
22) Sam Bradford
23) Ryan Tannehill
24) Josh McCown
25) Matt Schuab
26) E.J. Manuel
27) Brian Hoyer
28) Jason Campbell
29) Jake Locker
30) Mike Glennon
33) Ryan Fitzpatrick
35) Matt Cassel
37) Geno Smith
38) Matt Flynn
40) Chad Henne
41) Terrelle Pryor
42) Thad Lewis
43) Christian Ponder
Foles and Alex Smith should be higher. Ryan, Flacco, Kaepernick and Romo should be lower. Any QB's that I deleted shouldnt even be on the list.

As for the quarterback I would take for one game on my team (49ers), that game being the Super Bowl, I would take Eli Manning.
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Old 02-05-2014, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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Glennon definatley belongs in the 26-30 range. He wasn't very good, besides that 4 game stretch that got him rookie of the month. His rating was high bc qb rating doesn't account sacks or 5 yard dink and dunks on 3rd and 8.

He was a cautious thrower who could be considered as a check down machine and the offense was dead last. Bucs should be looking for an upgrade this upcoming draft.
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Old 02-06-2014, 12:53 AM    (permalink
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Carson Palmer ahead of RGIII? Really?
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I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 02-06-2014, 10:18 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
I decided to rate the top 50 QBs. I was really surprised how high Rivers was. But when 2013 performance is rated so much, that really helps. An average starter (ranked 16th in each category) would be a 70, completely average (25) would be a 50, and a starter (32nd in everything) would be a 40. So Matthew Stafford is an average starter, Sam Bradford is just plain average, and Matt Schaub should be the last choice starter. Also, based on this metric, there are only 31 starting quality QBs in the league.

1. Tom Brady- 91.36
2. Peyton Manning- 91.08
3. Drew Brees- 89.98
4. Russell Wilson- 88.94
5. Andrew Luck- 85.74
6. Aaron Rodgers- 84.5
7. Collin Kaepernick- 83.76
8. Tony Romo- 83.4
9. Ben Roethlisberger- 82.62
10. Phillip Rivers- 79.72
11. Matt Ryan- 79.76
12. Nick Foles- 77.98
13. Joe Flacco- 76
14. Cam Newton- 74.86
15. Andy Dalton- 73.6
16. Matthew Stafford- 69.48
17. Eli Manning- 69.46
18. Alex Smith- 69.16
19. Ryan Tannehill- 68.12
20. Jay Cutler- 65.06
21. Robert Griffin- 61.14
22. Carson Palmer- 60.24
23. Mike Glennon- 54.12
24. Sam Bradford- 52.54
25. Jake Locker- 48.78
26. Josh McCown- 48.04
27. EJ Manuel- 44.48
28. Geno Smith- 43.58
29- Michael Vick- 43.4
30. Chad Henne- 41.34
31. Matt Schaub- 40.52
32. Jason Campbell- 35.82
33. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 34.2
34. Matt Cassell- 29.22
35. Christian Ponder- 28.68
36. Matt Flynn- 28.1
37. Case Keenum- 27.02
38. Josh Freeman- 26.96
39. Mark Sanchez- 26.58
40. Kellen Clemens- 26.44
41. Kirk Cousins- 25.82
42. Kyle Orton- 25.8
43. Brian Hoyer- 24.08
44. Terrell Pryor- 23.8
45. Brandon Weeden- 23.06
46. Brock Osweiler- 15.92
47. Thad Lewis- 13.8
48. Matt McGloin- 13.8
49. Ryan Mallett- 13.06
50. Blaine Gabbert- 12.64
Well if you can find 31 starting quality QB's from this list then the stats used to compile the rankings are warped. I could see 25 as the cutoff point and that would be stretching it quite a bit.
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Old 02-06-2014, 10:30 PM    (permalink
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Now that the season is over, here are my rankings for top QBs in the NFL. This is extremely subjective, obviously.

The Breakdown:

35% 2013 performance
15% Career performance to date
10% Projected career performance (trajectory/upside)
8% Raw arm talent (5% accuracy/touch, 3% pure arm strength)
8% Decision-making/ability to read and manipulate coverages
8% Team success
8% Intangibles/leadership qualities/making those around him better
3% Mobility within the pocket/scrambling ability
3% Clutch history
2% Ability as a runner
2% Durability (I assume every player is healthy for this list)

*When you add everything up together the question that this list answers is this: Which QB would you rather have right now, today, to play one game, assuming full health and ideal circumstances in terms of offense and supporting cast for that player. How much time to prepare, what exactly the made up opponent would be, and if the question is changed to 'for one full season' should not affect the ranking.


I realize it is subjective, but how can team success and clutch history rate so low. Any list that suggests Peyton is the QB you would want to win a playoff game, subjective or not, is just plain wrong, as his losing record in the playoffs clearly indicates. He would be practically the last QB I would want to be my starting QB in the playoffs, so I would say that you need to go back to the drawing board on this list.
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Old 02-08-2014, 02:21 PM    (permalink
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Hill, Schaub, Sanchez(Coming off last year), Mallett, and Cassell ahead of Geno Smith?

Give me what you're drinking. I double doggie dare any of these QBs on the list to make Stephen "The Bust" Hill, Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Winslow(When he wasn't suspended for 4 games via LOL), Santonio Holmes(When he wasn't hurt which was 80% of the time and when he was on the field, he looked awful), David Nelson(Just signed in-season), Greg Salas(Just signed in-season), Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kerley(Good player but missed a few games) work.

He wasn't good by any means but the talent was so bad....people who don't follow the Jets don't get this. It has been bad for 2+ years. His OLine was hit or miss but the players around him....some of em should not even be in the NFL I mean.

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Old 02-08-2014, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Thecollegedropout View Post
Hill, Schaub, Sanchez(Coming off last year), Mallett, and Cassell ahead of Geno Smith?

Give me what you're drinking. I double doggie dare any of these QBs on the list to make Stephen "The Bust" Hill, Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Winslow(When he wasn't suspended for 4 games via LOL), Santonio Holmes(When he wasn't hurt which was 80% of the time and when he was on the field, he looked awful), David Nelson(Just signed in-season), Greg Salas(Just signed in-season), Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kerley(Good player but missed a few games) work.

He wasn't good by any means but the talent was so bad....people who don't follow the Jets don't get this. It has been bad for 2+ years. His OLine was hit or miss but the players around him....some of em should not even be in the NFL I mean.
I agree with the bold...

I do follow the Jets. They don't have good receivers. They have a good OC (who was so confident in Geno that he brought back the wild cat), decent running game, and good OL.

Sanchez isn't good, but he has a 32 TD year under his belt and two AFCCG appearances (and he actually played well in the playoffs). Geno has an awful rookie year on his resume. That and the 8% that goes to his arm. The only other criteria he can be graded positively on is career upside. Which I personally don't have much pegged for him. I hope he can get better though.

Same for Schaub, Hill, and Cassel. They've all done considerably more. And have proven they deserve to be backups at the NFL level. I didn't rank them highly at all.

As for Mallett, I get it. That's where it's subjective. I liked him in college and I like that he's learning from Brady and Belichick.

To insinuate that I'd rather have Mallett than Geno Smith isn't absurd. It's just an opinion. And a lot of it has to do with what I've scouted from their college careers. Smith hasn't done much to sway me to like him more than Mallett in his NFL career. If Mallett had come in and threw almost twice as many picks as TDs, he'd be way down the list. There's a lot of subjective projecting with the young guys. Just the way it is.
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Old 02-08-2014, 02:46 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Now that the season is over, here are my rankings for top QBs in the NFL. This is extremely subjective, obviously.

The Breakdown:

35% 2013 performance
15% Career performance to date
10% Projected career performance (trajectory/upside)
8% Raw arm talent (5% accuracy/touch, 3% pure arm strength)
8% Decision-making/ability to read and manipulate coverages
8% Team success
8% Intangibles/leadership qualities/making those around him better
3% Mobility within the pocket/scrambling ability
3% Clutch history
2% Ability as a runner
2% Durability (I assume every player is healthy for this list)

*When you add everything up together the question that this list answers is this: Which QB would you rather have right now, today, to play one game, assuming full health and ideal circumstances in terms of offense and supporting cast for that player. How much time to prepare, what exactly the made up opponent would be, and if the question is changed to 'for one full season' should not affect the ranking.


I realize it is subjective, but how can team success and clutch history rate so low. Any list that suggests Peyton is the QB you would want to win a playoff game, subjective or not, is just plain wrong, as his losing record in the playoffs clearly indicates. He would be practically the last QB I would want to be my starting QB in the playoffs, so I would say that you need to go back to the drawing board on this list.
Really?

I knew this narrative was going to get beaten to death after Seattle won.

Why does the SB against a legendary defense count so hard against him, but the two weeks prior don't?
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