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Old 01-02-2014, 09:25 AM    (permalink
AntoinCD
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
*shrug* hitting on roughly 1/4 of the picks at a given position is generally a pretty good return rate, and probably better than you're getting any just about any other position (though I could be wrong), and if you're hitting at a similar rate in the 6th as in the 2nd, you're better off using that 2nd round pick on a position where the value drops more precipitously in the 6th.
Yeah, don't get me wrong I am not necessarily saying you must take a RB early, but I think when people talk about RBs late in the draft they make it out like every UDFA will be Arian Foster or every late round pick will be Alfred Morris.

Obviously the higher a team picks a RB the greater the chance the guy will be good but clearly that works out for all positions, or at least it should. In theory, if you have a larger pool of players to draft from you have a better chance of hitting on that pick than drafting later with a smaller pool.

Of the guys who I think are useful players, some would be very poor higher picks. Chris Ogbonnaya for instance has played reasonably for the Browns but not what you would expect from a top quality starter.

I do get the side of the argument for waiting on a RB. Due to the short shelf life, impact of passing game over running game etc, however you can't just simply get a top quality starter at the position every year in the 6th round.

1 out of every 4 selections is actually a pretty decent return for the later rounds, but if you take a RB in the 2nd and have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting then it's not good. That isn't the case though. When you look at the RBs in the league, basically all of the top guys were selected in the first few rounds with very few exceptions.
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Old 01-02-2014, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AntoinCD View Post
Yeah, don't get me wrong I am not necessarily saying you must take a RB early, but I think when people talk about RBs late in the draft they make it out like every UDFA will be Arian Foster or every late round pick will be Alfred Morris.
i think we have that problem with every position. lately, it's the "none of these qbs are instant hall of famers, so you should probably take X instead. you can just get a hall of fame quarterback in the 6th round, instead."

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Obviously the higher a team picks a RB the greater the chance the guy will be good but clearly that works out for all positions, or at least it should. In theory, if you have a larger pool of players to draft from you have a better chance of hitting on that pick than drafting later with a smaller pool.
sorry to snip, but rather than quote everything... i think the difference is that you can get all the pieces you need in later rounds. i don't think there's any reason, any more, to try to have ONE guy who can take 80% of your rb snaps (unless he's literally AD). so, if i'm picking a rb in the 6th, i can easily ignore some of his flaws that caused him to fall, and focus on the 2-3 things he'll do really well in my offense. so now i can have a beater to get the tough yards, and a quicker guy who can play 3rd down back, and whatever else i might need.

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1 out of every 4 selections is actually a pretty decent return for the later rounds, but if you take a RB in the 2nd and have a 1 in 4 chance of hitting then it's not good. That isn't the case though. When you look at the RBs in the league, basically all of the top guys were selected in the first few rounds with very few exceptions.
the fact that a lot of the top guys were picked there doesn't tell you anything about the value of picking there, though. if teams draft all running backs in the first round for the next ten years, it won't really be impressive that every team has a good one. *shrug* i tend to think the value (purely in an 'economic' sense) of taking a running back that high is really, really poor, compared to other positions.
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Old 01-02-2014, 10:07 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
sorry to snip, but rather than quote everything... i think the difference is that you can get all the pieces you need in later rounds. i don't think there's any reason, any more, to try to have ONE guy who can take 80% of your rb snaps (unless he's literally AD). so, if i'm picking a rb in the 6th, i can easily ignore some of his flaws that caused him to fall, and focus on the 2-3 things he'll do really well in my offense. so now i can have a beater to get the tough yards, and a quicker guy who can play 3rd down back, and whatever else i might need.
Yeah this definitely has validity to it. I don't want it to come across as though I am banging the table for every team taking a workhorse high in the draft. Although, having someone like a Jamaal Charles or Lesean McCoy allows your offense to be more flexible than consistently subbing in a power guy on early downs then a shifty guy on 3rd down. Eh, I suppose it all depends on how you want to build your offense. I don't think how this should be done is set in stone by any team. If you see a guy who could be similar to one of the guys above in the second round do you pass on him because you can get a 3rd down guy later while picking up a DB in the 2nd? It's all about weighing it up. I can understand both sides but definitely disagree with the definitive statement that you should not draft a RB until the later rounds
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Old 01-02-2014, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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Guys just give Trent another year in the offseason to adjust to the system. It's really hard to be a running back and come into a new system. It's not like they are picked up off the street like Bobby Rainey and can rush for over 100 yards or anything.
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Old 01-02-2014, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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After his rookie year in Cleveland, I kinda figured Trent was bad but honestly I did not foresee him being anywhere near this awful for Indianapolis.
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Old 01-02-2014, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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is Trent Richardson the biggest bust in NFL history?

yeah, Fat Russell was a bust for Oakland. but nobody traded a first round pick for him after the fact. after busting fairly hard in Cleveland, Indy goes and 'dun goof'd all over their own faces by trading for this bum. what in the hell. i don't think theres any player in the league that was essentially worthy of two first round picks from two separate teams with absolutely nothing to show for it.
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Old 01-02-2014, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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I am not a T-Rich fan but its hard to say he "busted twice". He has been in the league for two seasons now and half of one with his current team. So before we say he is a bust why don't we give him another season.
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Old 01-02-2014, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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is Trent Richardson the biggest bust in NFL history?

yeah, Fat Russell was a bust for Oakland. but nobody traded a first round pick for him after the fact. after busting fairly hard in Cleveland, Indy goes and 'dun goof'd all over their own faces by trading for this bum. what in the hell. i don't think theres any player in the league that was essentially worthy of two first round picks from two separate teams with absolutely nothing to show for it.
How does someone else trading for him a year after he's drafted in any way impacts how much of a draft bust he's been?
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Old 01-02-2014, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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This trade will pay big dividends for the Colts, unquestionably.
Colt fans will love this trade...... there isn't any doubt about it, unless the ACL curse hits T-Rich Project.
..........
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Old 01-02-2014, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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How does someone else trading for him a year after he's drafted in any way impacts how much of a draft bust he's been?
if anything it's a recovery of value, getting a first rounder instead of the jack squat/gaping development hole that busts usually result in.
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Old 01-02-2014, 12:18 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by General Zod View Post
The Colts were probably like,

Hey Cleveland, would you also like us to throw Donald Brown in the trade? No really we dont mind, you can take him...please. lol
I wish this had happened... :[

The funny thing with the T-Rich selection is that we probably would have taken either Blackmon or Claiborne with that pick... We pretty much got maximum value by taking Trent and then trading him.

Weird I know but true.
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Old 01-02-2014, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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Trent Richardson needs to spend most of the offseason with Pep Hamilton and Indianapolisí running backs coach. No extravagant, routine parties. No hiding from criticism in Pensacola. He needs to put his head down and work to get better. Otherwise, heís doomed to be a bust. Itís his choice. This offseason is critical for development. He has reached a crossroads in his career. Heís done getting the benefit of the doubt. Heís losing reps to Ahmad Bradshaw and Donald Brown and isnít guaranteed to get them back. And thatís ignoring the prospect of other competition at the position.

He must improve his short-area vision. From what Iíve seen, Iíve never had a problem with his downfield vision. But, short-area, thatís his biggest roadblock to NFL success. A lot of people claim that vision is uncoachable, but thatís not quite true. There are decent drills that can be run on a practice field, but what Trent needs to do between now and training camp is take care of himself, get a little lighter in the feet, and log a lot of hours in a Colts meeting room. A running back can improve his vision once he understands what the defense is doing in front of him. You donít often think of running backs being cerebral or reading a defensive front, but if a runner knows an offensive call inside-out, and recognizes how the defense is responding to the formation, then heís obtained a pre-snap advantage. Itís all about understanding the flow of the call to its completion and using that information to better anticipate how a defense will react to him. That includes a quarterback bootlegging off the handoff, a tight end motioning into or out of the backfield, certain receiver splits, etc. But thatís part of how ďoldĒ or ďslowĒ backs reinvent themselves as grinders. To this point, Trent survived high school and college because he was impossible to tackle and ran behind an All-American offensive line. He never had to develop subtle skills. Now he needs to learn new tricks. So he needs to hit the whiteboard with his position coach and/or coordinator, remain receptive to hard coaching, and spend time watching film himself. Iíd love it if he volunteered to run during some of the earlier offseason activities. Develop a better sense of how the offense asks certain blocks to be executed. Get valuable practice time reading and reacting to defensive fronts in a conducive environment.

But he canít lose even more reps. Thatís the crucial part. Live, in-game reps are the surest method of long-term improvement. So he needs to prepare for those opportunities. If heís uninterested during his exit interview or seems disengaged from his offseason program, then itís time for Indianapolis to panic. With effort, thereís no reason Trent canít average at least 4 YPC. Heís still got the leg drive and tools to be an effective NFL runner.
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Old 01-02-2014, 05:28 PM    (permalink
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I've been on the Trent Richardson-is-Cedric Benson train since before he was drafted. I'm not about to get off of it now. He should be the change of pace behind a starter that can do it all. He should be the Michael Bush to someone's Matt Forte.

I really think every team should just draft a running back in the 6th every year. Every time you want to spend a first rounder on a back, get a lineman instead. Keep your stable of backs churning through healthy, cheap, young guys competing for three jobs. That round is just used for special teamers, anyway. The obvious exception is when an Adrian Peterson shows up. Trent didn't look half as complete as AP coming out.
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Old 01-02-2014, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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He pretty much is the Michael Bush to Donald Brown's (somehow he became good this year) Forte. Role wise.

The funny thing about TRich is that he's still playing. Watch him play well in the most important games. A back who can churn out tough yards can be very valuable in the playoffs.
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Old 01-02-2014, 09:48 PM    (permalink
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I just hope he either plays really well next season outright or is terrible again. I don't want to waste time and energy hoping that it going to get any better. If he is terrible then don't give him carries. If he improves then the trade won't be a complete black eye. None of this wish washy stuff.

The thing I hate is that every time he is interviewed he speaks as though he did well. Andrew Luck after great wins is the first to admit he needs to do better. Richardson just grins because he ran for a 15 yard gain and ignores that his YPC was 2.7. I have a football crush on Gio. I wish he was a Colt.
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Old 01-04-2014, 10:15 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, don't get me wrong I am not necessarily saying you must take a RB early, but I think when people talk about RBs late in the draft they make it out like every UDFA will be Arian Foster or every late round pick will be Alfred Morris.
Most people just mean that it is easier to manufacture an Alfred Morris or Arian Foster (or BJGE...) if you have better run blocking OL. It's better to grab an interior OL in the second than a RB, assuming they have roughly equivalent value.

In the second round, a guard may be good enough to do both run and pass block, whereas, in the sixth - he will probably have major deficiencies in one of those areas. A runningback that can't catch or block or run in certain schemes might be a UDFA, but behind the right coaching and line - that RB can look great.
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Old 01-04-2014, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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Richardson has led the Colts in rushing just 1 game in the past 9 games FYI.
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Old 01-04-2014, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Richardson has led the Colts in rushing just 1 game in the past 9 games FYI.
This is so depressing as a colts fan. The thing that sucks is we are going to keep trying to make it work so we don't look like idiots. I'd rather just recognize the mistake and pull the plug. Especially if he sucks next year.
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Old 01-04-2014, 01:40 PM    (permalink
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niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Nah guys he is gonna ball out next year. He is thinking when he runs still.
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Old 01-04-2014, 05:01 PM    (permalink
SaintsMan
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SaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairSaintsMan is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hair
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Ingram > Richardson
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Old 01-04-2014, 07:19 PM    (permalink
niel89
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niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.niel89 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Ingram > Richardson
Ingram has been running hard this year when I see him. I like him a lot still. I'm excited to see him play tonight with Thomas out.
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Old 01-04-2014, 07:27 PM    (permalink
49erNation85
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49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Lacy > Ingram > Richardson. ...
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Old 01-04-2014, 07:30 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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Lacy > Ingram > Glen Coffee > Richardson. ...
Fixed it for ya.
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Old 01-04-2014, 07:33 PM    (permalink
49erNation85
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49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.49erNation85 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Fixed it for ya.
He's in the Army now it's all good. Hopefully he's serving our country with class.
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Old 01-04-2014, 11:46 PM    (permalink
Scotty D
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I thought of this thread while watching Richardson fumble on his first touch.
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