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Old 09-28-2013, 01:04 PM    (permalink
Eazy Picks
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Default Eazy Picks Week 4

havent been doing a great job posting these...as always, you can go to eazypicks.com and see this with better formatting and all...havent been picking too well to start the season hopefully I get things turned around this week

Week 4 Picks

San Francisco 49ers (1-2, 10) at St. Louis Rams (1-2, 28)
Vegas Line: SF -3
These teams played two memorable hard-fought games last year, and will face off this week with each team badly in need of a win. The 49ers’ offense has been struggling, but the Rams’ defense has not been looking good, and the 49ers might be able to get back on track this game. DeMarco Murray had a monster game against the Rams’ last week, and the 49ers should have a good opportunity to get their run game going again. Patrick Willis and Vernon Davis are both expected to be game-time decisions, and their absence will obviously have a big effect on both team’s game plans. The 49ers run defense has been struggling as of late, but the Rams’ run game hasn’t exactly been a strong point. Open-field tackling will be key for the 49er defense, as the Rams’ have some speedy receivers who are capable of gashing the 49ers for big gains. The 49ers have typically done a good job bouncing back under Jim Harbaugh, and it would be surprising to see them lose 3 straight.
SU Pick: SF
ATS Pick: SF -3

Washington Redskins (0-3, 29) at Oakland Raiders (1-2, 30)
Vegas Line: WAS -4
The Redskins’ badly need a win, making their game against the Raiders extremely timely. The Raiders, however, have not been the push-over most expected them to be. The Redskins’ offense should have a chance to get right against the Oakland defense, which got ripped to shreds by Peyton Manning last week. Teams have been putting heavy pressure on Robert Griffin, but the Raiders’ may not be able to generate a strong enough pass-rush to stop Griffin from getting into rhythm. Terrelle Pryor could present a lot of problems for the Redskins’ defense, but he may miss the game because of last week’s concussion, which would mean Matt Flynn will make his first start as a Raider. If Pryor can’t go, the team will need a big day from HB Darren McFadden, who could make big plays if he gets out in the open field. Flynn is an accurate passer without the arm strength to push the ball downfield, but the Redskins’ poor tackling could open the door for Raider receivers to pick up yards after the catch. Pass-rusher Brian Orakpo could overwhelm LT Khalif Barnes and disrupt the Raiders’ offense.
SU Pick: WAS
ATS Pick: OAK +4

Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 4) at Buffalo Bills (1-2, 25)
Vegas Line: BAL -3
The Ravens’ rebounded from their disastrous opener with two convincing home wins, but they will now need to hit the road and take on an underrated Bills’ team. The Bills struggled to defend the deep ball against the Jets last week, and their secondary probably needs to get healthy before that’s going to change. CB Stephon Gilmore is still not ready to return to action, and CB Leodis McKelvin is now dealing with a hamstring injury, but FS Jairus Byrd could play his first game of the year this week, which could give the team a big boost. Joe Flacco loves to air it out deep and Torrey Smith is one of the best deep-ball receivers in the game, so it could be another long day for the Bills’ secondary. The Ravens’ defense struggled against the Broncos’ up-tempo attack, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to the Bills’ hurry-up offense. EJ Manuel is coming off a poor game, but he could conceivably have a good game against the Ravens’ inconsistent secondary. The Bills need to get more out of CJ Spiller, who is coming off a minor injury that caused him to miss time last week.
SU Pick: BAL
ATS Pick: BUF +3

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1, 13) at Cleveland Browns (1-2, 26)
Vegas Line: CIN -4
The Browns are coming off an emotional win, and now have a chance to get back in the thick of the AFC North race with a home win over the Bengals. Brian Hoyer will start again at QB, but he will be going against a defense that did a great job against Aaron Rodgers last week. The Bengals will probably be without CB Leon Hall, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, and FS Reggie Nelson, so Hoyer might be able to have success throwing to WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron. However, the protection will have to hold up against a strong Bengal pass-rush, and the team needs to find its running game. The Bengals have been getting a spark on offense out of rookie HB Giovanni Bernard, but the Browns’ run defense has been extremely stout, allowing just 2.8 yard per carry. AJ Green is one of the game’s best receivers, and he will be squaring off with Joe Haden, who is one of the top cover corners in the league. Most quarterbacks tend to avoid throwing at Haden, so Dalton may have to target Mohammad Sanu, Jermaine Gresham, and Tyler Eifert more than usual. Rookie OLB Berkevious Mingo has been coming on strong, and could be one of the key players in this game. The Bengals have a good LT to block him in Andrew Whittworth, but Mingo has freaky ability.
SU Pick: CIN
ATS Pick: CLE +4

Chicago Bears (3-0, 9) at Detroit Lions (2-1, 7)
Vegas Line: DET -3
As it turns out, this game will be a battle for first place in the AFC North. The Bears have been doing a great job closing out games, but the Lions are capable of taking control of this game. The Bears have to adjust to the loss of DT Henry Melton, and could have a hard time generating pressure on Mathew Stafford. The Bears’ defense feasts on turnovers, but those will be a lot harder to come by if they can’t get pressure up front. Charles Tillman is a great corner, but he will have a hard time defending Calvin Johnson deep, especially if Stafford has time to let plays develop. Reggie Bush will be back in the lineup, and could make the Bears pay for dropping their safeties deep. The Bears’ offensive line has shown great improvement this year, but they will be going up against one of the league’s best defensive lines. The Lions limited WR Brandon Marshall to 11 catches for 123 yards in 2 games last year, but it would be surprising to see them keep him under wraps again. Every DB on the Lions’ roster is physically outmatched by Marshall, and Cutler is sure to work it to his top receiver. The key for the Lions will be limiting Matt Forte, who is the key to the Bears’ offense. Jay Cutler needs to continue to make good decisions under pressure, as the Bears are likely to need a strong performance from him to win this game.
SU Pick: DET
ATS Pick: DET -3

New York Giants (0-3, 27) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 150)
Vegas Line: KC -4
The Giants come into this game reeling, and they will go against a Kansas City team that is playing great football and coming off 9 days rest. The Giants’ offensive line has been a mess, which is not good when going against the defense that leads the league with 15 sacks. The Chiefs are strong on the back end as well, and have the personnel to stifle the Giants’ offense. On the other hand, when Eli Manning gets into a zone, this offense can be extremely hard to stop. If David Wilson can break off some big runs like LeSean McCoy did against the Chiefs, it could set the table for Manning. The Giants’ defense will face the daunting task of stopping Jamaal Charles, who is one of the league’s most dangerous runners. Alex Smith does a good job taking care of the football, but if the Giants’ pass-rush can bring some heat, they may be able to force a mistake or two. Rookie RT Eric Winston, the number 1 pick in the draft, has been struggling and could be victimized by Justin Tuck.
SU Pick: KC
ATS Pick: KC -4

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3, 21) vs Minnesota Vikings (0-3, 20) - at London
Vegas Line: PIT -1
I think the Vikings and Steelers are the two 0-3 teams with a chance to turn things around, but that becomes a lot tougher at 0-4. The Steelers offense finally showed some signs of life last week, and they could get a lot better with Heath Miller and Le’Veon bell back. The Vikings’ defensive line can get after the passer and will present a challenge for the Steelers’ young offensive line, but their secondary could struggle. Matt Cassel will make the start at QB in relief of the injured Christian Ponder, and he will need to do a better job of taking care of the football than Ponder. The Steelers’ defense hasn’t been quite as stout as usual against the run, and Adrian Peterson could have a big game with FB Jerome Felton back to lead block for him, so Cassel could get some good opportunities.
SU Pick: PIT
ATS Pick: PIT -1

Arizona Cardinals (1-2, 24) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3, 31)
Vegas Line: TB -1
The Bucs badly need a win here, and they will need their defense to spearhead the effort. The big matchup in this game will be between CB Darrelle Revis and WR Larry Fitzgerald, two of the game’s best players at their positions. It’s unlikely Revis will shut Fitzgerald down, but he can force Palmer to work the ball to Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler more than he’d like to. It’s easy to see Michael Floyd making some big plays going deep against the Tampa secondary, but it’s also easy to see Carson Palmer making costly mistakes that turn into points for the Bucs. Rookie QB Mike Glennon will be making his first start, so the Bucs will need to lean heavily on workhorse HB Doug Martin. The Cardinals happen to match up well with the Bucs, as they play good run defense and have a top corner of their own to stick on WR Vincent Jackson. The good news for Glennon is the Cardinals pass-rush is not a strong point and they are missing some players on their front 7.
SU Pick: ARI
ATS Pick: ARI +1

Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 32)
Vegas Line: IND -10
The Colts come into this game feeling great after pulling a big trade for Trent Richardson and blowing out the 49ers. Richardson didn’t have to do much in that game, but he will play a big role in this one with HB Ahmad Bradshaw out. The Jaguars defensive play has been dismal, and Richardson and Andrew Luck could both have big games. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars’ offense has looked terrible through 3 games, and could struggle against a Colt defense coming off one of its best performances. Maurice Jones-Drew has had some big games against the Colts in the past, and he is the Jaguars’ best chance of moving the ball in this one. Getting TE Mercedes Lewis back will help the Jaguars, while the Colts will have to go another week without SS Laron Landry.
SU Pick: IND
ATS Pick: JAC +10

Seattle Seahawks (3-0, 1) at Houston Texans (2-1, 5)
Vegas Line: SEA -3
The Seahawks are outstanding at home, but they have sometimes struggled on the road, and will face a tough test against the Texans. Russell Wilson is an outstanding playmaker, but the Seahawks’ offense is predicated on Marshawn Lynch and their run game. The Texans are strong in the trenches with JJ Watt and Antonio Smith, and the Seahawks are without 3 starting lineman, including standouts Russell Okung and Max Unger. QB Matt Schaub has been making too many mistakes lately, and will need to be smart with the football against the best secondary in football. The Seahawks have a good run defense, but the Texans need to stick with their run game and lean on their defense in this one.
SU Pick: HOU
ATS Pick: HOU +3

New York Jets (2-1, 22) at Tennessee Titans (2-1, 16)
Vegas Line: TEN -4
The Jets and Titans are both off to strong starts, playing good defense and getting surprisingly good quarterback play. Geno Smith had a great day against the Bills’ secondary, but will be in for a bigger challenge against the Titans. Bilal Powell is not likely to run for another 150 yards against the Titans, and Smith may have to make some tough throws under pressure in this one. Titans’ HB Chris Johnson is having a good year, but he will be going up against one of the league’s top run defenses. Jake Locker is coming off one of the best game’s against his NFL career, and will need to play strong again against a Jets’ defense that has been playing well thus far.
SU Pick: TEN
ATS Pick: TEN -4

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 19) at Denver Broncos (3-0, 2)
Vegas Line: DEN -12
Expect a lot of points to get piled up in this game, which features two of the league’s most effective up-tempo attacks. The Eagles’ secondary has had some issues and will be without Patrick Chung, so it will be hard for them to slow down Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ passing game. Peyton Manning will burn the Eagles if they try to blitz, but if Trent Cole can win his matchup against LT Chris Clark, it could disrupt the Broncos’ passing game. The Broncos’ defense is one of the few units in the league that possesses the speed to match up against the Eagles, but they could struggle to create pressure on Vick. LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are big-time playmakers, and the Broncos need to find a way to contain them.
SU Pick: DEN
ATS Pick: PHI +12

Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 8) at San Diego Chargers (1-2, 23)
Vegas Line: DAL -2
The Chargers’ have undeniably been playing well this year, but they have not done a good job of closing out games, and are dealing with a number of injuries. The team will be getting LBs Donald Butler and Manti Te’o and RT DJ Fluker back on the field, but they could be missing as many as 3 starting offensive linemen. DE DeMarcus Ware could have a field day against backup LT Michael Harris and DT Jason Hatcher could also be in for a big day. The Chargers could slow down the Cowboys’ pass-rush by establishing the run, but Ryan Matthews continues to be underwhelming and the Cowboys currently rank second in the league in run defense.
SU Pick: DAL
ATS Pick: DAL -2

New England Patriots (3-0, 3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 12)
Vegas Line: ATL -1
The Falcons are an extremely strong home team, and they need to pull it together and pick up a win against tough competition this week. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding key injured players on both offenses in this one. TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Danny Amendola are both question marks for the Patriots, and they can make a dramatic difference if they are on the field. Falcons’ WR Roddy White has been slowed by a high ankle sprain, but may soon be healthy enough to return to form, and LT Sam Baker could miss his second consecutive game. The Falcons still have plenty of weapons on offense, but they need to get them all involved and do a better job protecting Matt Ryan. The Falcons’ secondary could give Tom Brady problems if he is without Gronkowski and Amendola, but the Patriots might be able to get their run game going against the Falcons’ beat-up front 7.
SU Pick: ATL
ATS Pick: ATL -1

Miami Dolphins (3-0, 17) at New Orleans Saints (3-0, 11)
Vegas Line: NO -7
This game pits two teams who are surprisingly undefeated thus far, and both would like to make a statement on national TV. Coming to the Super Dome and winning is never easy, and the Saints are playing extremely well right now. The Saints’ defense has shown marked improvement, and it will be interesting to see how they hold up against Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ attack. Tannehill is doing a good job running the offense, but the Dolphins need to get HB Lamar Miller involved against a Saints’ defense that is giving up 5.3 yards per carry. The Dolphins will be without their best player, DE Cameron Wake, which could mean extra time in the pocket for Drew Brees. The Dolphins will need Dion Jordan and Olivier Vernon to step up, but there is no replacing a player like Wake, and the Dolphins don’t have a good enough secondary to hold up in coverage against Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston.
SU Pick: NO
ATS Pick: NO -7
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