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Old 11-24-2013, 12:32 AM    (permalink
niel89
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Maziel is gone I think. He won't get better as a prospect and there isn't much more for him to do.

I'm not really high on anyone right now. So much will change after the season. Guys with the tools will rise fast. Teams will reach.
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Old 11-24-2013, 02:12 AM    (permalink
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I'm not a big fan of Derek Carr, I feel like almost all of his throws are either screens (watching Derek Carr is like watching a screen montage), slants or shallow crosses, or fades (when Fresno is in the red zone.) Also almost every throw he makes is based on a predetermined read in which he basically stares down his man until they're open or tries to force it in anyways. He's a smart guy with all of the physical tools, so I think he could develop into a starter, but it requires some pretty considerable imagination since he doesn't really make pro-style throws in college, or go through any progressions like a pro quarterback would.
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Old 11-24-2013, 07:43 AM    (permalink
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I'm not a big fan of Derek Carr, I feel like almost all of his throws are either screens (watching Derek Carr is like watching a screen montage), slants or shallow crosses, or fades (when Fresno is in the red zone.) Also almost every throw he makes is based on a predetermined read in which he basically stares down his man until they're open or tries to force it in anyways. He's a smart guy with all of the physical tools, so I think he could develop into a starter, but it requires some pretty considerable imagination since he doesn't really make pro-style throws in college, or go through any progressions like a pro quarterback would.
But with the NFL focused on getting the ball out of the QB's hands quickly that plays right into a lot of NFL offenses. Plus, Derek has as close to a literal clone as possible (other than having a twin) to lead one to believe he has the ability to develop those things. ....assuming he doesn't get ruined by getting sacked more than 68 times in a season twice in his first 4 years.
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Old 11-24-2013, 08:07 AM    (permalink
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Team that drafts Carr should grab Davante Adams
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Old 11-24-2013, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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I'm not really high on anyone right now.

This is shaping up to be one of the most overhyped QB class in a very long time.
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Old 11-24-2013, 09:42 AM    (permalink
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I don't see a QB I love yet either. I'm intrigued by Bortles. I want to see more of him.

I find it very odd how Mariota's being anointed as some polished pocket passer. He's got the same damn question marks every spread QB has had over the past 10 years. And he's small. He's got better tools than the others but there's a whole lot more projecting with him than most are making it seem.

And Manziel has slowly fallen down for me. The more I see, the less I like. He doesn't seem like an NFL quality passer right now.

As for Hundley, he's got the tools but he doesn't strike me as an NFL quality passer either. He can throw the ball but his accuracy and decision making are not that of a top pick.

Carr has a good arm but he'll face obvious questions.

Boyd's a nice college player but that's it.

And it's blasphemous to some people but Bridgewater, while the best of this bunch I think, isn't a true standout. His arm and accuracy are inconsistent at times. I like his makeup and he CAN play in spurts like a stud QB. But he doesn't jump out at you and take over a game like most great QBs do. Physically he's not any better than Geno Smith and he doesn't even have Smith's size. He's smarter right now though. He's talented but I'm not sure he's special. And when you talk about a top-5 QB you want someone special. He might be Sam Bradford-ish at the pro level. Is that worth your top 5 pick? Is that worth passing on Barr or Clowney for? I'm not sure.
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Old 11-24-2013, 10:18 AM    (permalink
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I've been saying that for months gpngc. Every year people like mock all these QBs in the first round, it's usually just a small portion of those that actually make it to the first.

I've been hearing 5 QBs first round forever, I just don't see it. I'm not impressed with Bridgewater although I know many are. Mariota and Hundley need to stay and develop. I've always wanted to peg Boyd as a Steve McNair type, and maybe with extensive NFL development he could be, but as a prospect he's not. David Carr and Zach Mettenberger are my favorite two from this class, and that's really just because they are relatively smart with tools to be a good QB.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I really think If I wanted a QB and had my choice of any QB in the class I'd take Mettenberger. I see way more of what translates into an NFL QB with him than anything.

Bortles is another guy that intrigues me as well, but I'd like to see him stay and develop another year as well.

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These QBs didn't all play in a vacuum today. I imagine facing LSU in Baton Rouge is a little tougher than playing New Mexico in your home stadium. That seems to be getting a little overlooked in this discussion.
While that is true, I'm not determining my feelings of Manziel over 1 game. I've never liked him as a pro QB, I've never felt he translated. In the right system he could probably be a decent QB, but I don't think he ever warranted a high selection. Unless I'm a team running an offense similar to the Redskins/Texans, I probably wouldn't touch him. Maybe if he comes out Kyle Shanahan will also get a head coaching job and move try Manziel out. I don't know what will happen, all I know is I've never liked his pro potential.
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Old 11-24-2013, 10:35 AM    (permalink
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I forgot to mention Mettenberger. He's a talented kid but he's just not the whole package. That's the problem with all these guys. They ALL have damning question marks. Not small ones.

I also forgot AJ McCarron but I'd be shocked if he's highly regarded by any smart personnel decision-makers. He's not nearly as talented as half of these other guys.

To your point about "every year" - I don't think it happens every year. I think what happened was after the 2012 class (might go down as one of the best ever), the 2013 class was PUTRID. So people started to look at the big names coming back and overstated how good the 2014 class would be, headlined by Bridgewater, because what they last saw was SO bad. Now the hype was correct in the sense that there are an abundance of NFL-talent quality QBs draft eligible this year - way more than usual. That's true. But it's quantity and not quality, and I think that's where the draftniks/casual draft followers have led to the media glorifying a large number (maybe 8 or 9) of kids who will have a 4th-round grade or above by some teams. That's a deep class in theory. The problem is that I don't think it's top heavy which is what you want in a QB class.

And to your point about "5 first round QBs" - with the demand of the position and how talented some of these kids are - there may very well be 5 QBs drafted in the first round. Unlikely, but it's possible. But that doesn't mean me or you is wrong about our assessment of the class as a whole and that it's been overstated and each QB has big flaws - it just speaks to the great QB race and where we are right now in terms of the landscape of the league - which has a lot to do with it. For example, no one took Wilson until the third because so many QBs went before him and literally every team in the league had their starter by the 2nd round. That contributed to his fall as much as his height. He might've been selected in EJ Manuel fashion if Luck, RGIII, Tanny, Weeden, etc. weren't in his class/some QB moves hadn't been made that gave team's false hope (Gabbert, Palmer, etc.)

And I'm not closing the book on any of these kids. There's still a lot of work to do before I give a final grade. My initial reaction has not been up to par with what most analysts are saying about this class, though. But that can and will change with the more film I watch and info I gather. Hopefully for the better for some of these kids.
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Old 11-24-2013, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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Based on who I've seen extensively, here's what I think of the top quarterbacks:
  1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon**
  2. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville*
  3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M**
  4. Zach Mettenberger, Louisiana St.
  5. A.J. McCarron, Alabama
  6. Tajh Boyd, Clemson
  7. Aaron Murray, Georgia
  8. Derek Carr, Fresno St.
  9. Stephen Morris, Miami (FL)
  10. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
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Old 11-24-2013, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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This QB class was highly talked about early on, but looks incredibly lackluster.
I just don't see the elite franchise QB in Bridgewater, or anybody in this class for that matter.
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Old 11-24-2013, 12:44 PM    (permalink
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I think guys like Mettenberger and Bortles are on the rise. Mettenberger has all the tools and his improvement from his junior to senior year has been very impressive. He has made throws no other QB in college can make.

When watching Bortles he looks alot like Luck/Big Ben. He has great mobility but looks to extend plays and make throws down field. Not sure if he comes out this year but his stock may never be higher.
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Old 11-24-2013, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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I still think that Bridgewater is deserving of the #1 pick but I'll admit that I'm concerned about his size at this point. If he comes into the combine and measures at 6'3 210 then I'll be happy but I'm worried he might be more like 6'2 200 which would be a pretty serious problem.

I've always felt that Mariota has been overrated this season. People were looking at the fact that he hadn't thrown an interception and just assumed that he was incredibly accurate and making good decisions. The truth is that he was making easy reads and very rarely had to throw into tight spots down field. The Stanford game is the best example of where he's at as a Qb. He showed his potential in that game by making some incredible throws on the run but he also struggled against pressure and showed some problems with his mechanics. If he comes out I still think he'll be a first rounder based on his potential.

Mettenberger also looks like a first round pick although he has gone through stretches where he looks terrible. He has a ton of potential but he needs to be more consistent at the next level.

I'm not sure if Blake Bortles will come out or not but if he does he would be my #2 Qb at this point. The more I watch of him the more I like him. His game against South Carolina was incredible although the 2 picks he threw were unfortunate. I could see him flying up boards this offseason and ending up in the top 5 given the needs of teams drafting there.

The rest of the class to me are 2nd round prospects at best but we'll see if they get pushed up the board given team needs.
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Old 11-24-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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Aaron Murray torn acl
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Old 11-24-2013, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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Aaron Murray torn acl
That really sucks - he is going to really drop down draft boards. I didn't think he was going to be a first rounder or even second but he had the tools to be a solid 3/4 round pick. I was interested to see how he would perform at senior bowl and combine.
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Old 11-24-2013, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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I don't see a torn ACL making much of a difference in the stock of a mid to late round QB.
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Old 11-24-2013, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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I still think that Bridgewater is deserving of the #1 pick but I'll admit that I'm concerned about his size at this point. If he comes into the combine and measures at 6'3 210 then I'll be happy but I'm worried he might be more like 6'2 200 which would be a pretty serious problem.

I've always felt that Mariota has been overrated this season. People were looking at the fact that he hadn't thrown an interception and just assumed that he was incredibly accurate and making good decisions. The truth is that he was making easy reads and very rarely had to throw into tight spots down field. The Stanford game is the best example of where he's at as a Qb. He showed his potential in that game by making some incredible throws on the run but he also struggled against pressure and showed some problems with his mechanics. If he comes out I still think he'll be a first rounder based on his potential.

Mettenberger also looks like a first round pick although he has gone through stretches where he looks terrible. He has a ton of potential but he needs to be more consistent at the next level.

I'm not sure if Blake Bortles will come out or not but if he does he would be my #2 Qb at this point. The more I watch of him the more I like him. His game against South Carolina was incredible although the 2 picks he threw were unfortunate. I could see him flying up boards this offseason and ending up in the top 5 given the needs of teams drafting there.

The rest of the class to me are 2nd round prospects at best but we'll see if they get pushed up the board given team needs.
Remind you of anyone from last year?
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Old 11-24-2013, 04:56 PM    (permalink
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Bridgewater/Carr/Mettenberger and maybe one more will be the top QBs in this draft, possibly all going in the first round.

On second blush assuming many of these guys return to college, this QB class isn't looking that great.
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Old 11-24-2013, 05:14 PM    (permalink
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Remind you of anyone from last year?
Everyone's favorite 2013 QB Genozzzzz?
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Old 11-24-2013, 05:21 PM    (permalink
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Never mind.
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Old 11-24-2013, 05:25 PM    (permalink
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I don't see a torn ACL making much of a difference in the stock of a mid to late round QB.
If he was not injured and did well at senior bowl and combine that could of helped his stock but now since he is not afforded that chance I think it does impact his stock as he was a guy with alot of intangibles but also some question marks due to his size/arm strength. He won't get a chance to answer those now prior to the draft.
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Old 11-24-2013, 05:56 PM    (permalink
jballa838
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Based on who I've seen extensively, here's what I think of the top quarterbacks:
  1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon**
  2. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville*
  3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M**
  4. Zach Mettenberger, Louisiana St.
  5. A.J. McCarron, Alabama
  6. Tajh Boyd, Clemson
  7. Aaron Murray, Georgia
  8. Derek Carr, Fresno St.
  9. Stephen Morris, Miami (FL)
  10. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
This is really, really, really bad.

I don't get the Teddy hate, guys. He's by far the best QB prospect in a LONG time. He can make every throw, and he makes the right ones. The ones that win games. The ones that keep drives alive on 3rd and long.
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Old 11-24-2013, 06:02 PM    (permalink
SolidGold
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This is really, really, really bad.

I don't get the Teddy hate, guys. He's by far the best QB prospect in a LONG time. He can make every throw, and he makes the right ones. The ones that win games. The ones that keep drives alive on 3rd and long.
He hasn't played in many close games and plays in a relatively weak conference. Bortles is a just as good, if not better prospect at the next level if we want to compare two guys playing in the same conference.

Oh yea and he is not the best QB prospect to come out in a long time - Luck was that guy so even though you like to bash him it is true. Bridgewater would not have been able to match Luck's success in turning around a franchise in one year like Luck did last season.

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Old 11-24-2013, 06:12 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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If he was not injured and did well at senior bowl and combine that could of helped his stock but now since he is not afforded that chance I think it does impact his stock as he was a guy with alot of intangibles but also some question marks due to his size/arm strength. He won't get a chance to answer those now prior to the draft.
The scouts have tons of tape on him to evaluate. Nothing about his size or arm strength was going to change at the Senior Bowl.
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Old 11-24-2013, 06:21 PM    (permalink
jballa838
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He hasn't played in many close games and plays in a relatively weak conference. Bortles is a just as good, if not better prospect at the next level if we want to compare two guys playing in the same conference.

Oh yea and he is not the best QB prospect to come out in a long time - Luck was that guy so even though you like to bash him it is true. Bridgewater would not have been able to match Luck's success in turning around a franchise in one year like Luck did last season.
Wait... Bortles over Bridgewater? Luck turned the Colts around? It's not like the Colts were perennial cellar-dwellers. Peyton got hurt, they lost a ton with their backup, Luck played solid and didn't lose them a ton of games. Now he's exposed because he doesn't have Reggie Wayne.

Then again, this was the same site that seriously considered Blaine Gabbert a top tier, elite prospect out of Missouri. I am not surprised anymore.
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JBalla is mormon, so naturally he assumes that whenever you get one marriage done, another two or five are in the works.

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Old 11-24-2013, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a big fan of Murray but it really does screw any chances of being a higher draft pick. A good senior bowl and combine and a lot of stuff can happen. Prospects should be judged by predominately their tape but there are always guys that rise after the season. He just doesn't get that opportunity and it probably drives him down to a late pick or UDFA.
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