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View Poll Results: Who do you think will will OROY?
Mike Glennon 6 14.29%
EJ Manuel 0 0%
Matt McGloin 0 0%
Larry Warford 4 9.52%
Eddie Lacy 16 38.10%
Giovani Bernard 6 14.29%
Andre Ellington 0 0%
Zac Stacy 3 7.14%
Tavon Austin 1 2.38%
Keenan Allen 6 14.29%
Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-25-2013, 05:42 AM    (permalink
Caulibflower
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Default 2013 Offensive Rookie of the Year Thread

Top 10 Candidates for 2013, in no order, as of Week 12


Mike Glennon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Quarterback - age 23 - 6'6" 225 lbs

Baptism by fire. He lost his first five starts, but that stretch included 3 top ten defenses in Arizona, Carolina and Seattle. Had no less than 43 pass attempts in his first four starts, and only had 3 interceptions among them - a good sign from someone known to have some careless tendencies in college. Now he's won his last three games, including a victory over the currently-playoff-seeded Lions. The Bucs have had more success running the ball lately and drastically reduced his number of attempts, but he's shown good accuracy and command of the game and is already a better quarterback than Josh Freeman. He isn't going to win the award based on team success, but if he continues to play at a high level and win games from here on out, he's going to get a lot of consideration.

Projected Statistics (13 games):
273 com. 437 att. 62% 2896 yards 21 TDs 7 INTs // 36 rushes 50 yards


EJ Manuel
Buffalo Bills, Quarterback - age 23 - 6'5" 237 lbs

He has looked better than a lot of people expected and is part of a youth movement which has brought a lot of new speed and excitement to Buffalo. He's missed time due to injuries, but when healthy has showed the ability to be a game-changing player. Is still growing into his role, and while he is 3-4 so far as a starter, Buffalo is 4-7 overall, showing how important he already is for Buffalo's ability to compete. (Right here I realized that I thought "competability" should be a word meant to refer to a team's potential to win on a week-to-week basis.) He looked good last week against a formidable Jets defense. If Buffalo goes on a tear he'll certainly receive the credit for it, but barring that he's not going to have a flashy enough resume to contend for the award.

Projected Statistics (12 games):
218 com. 372 att. 58% 2375 yards 14 TDs 7 INTs // 60 rushes 200 yards


Matt McGloin
Oakland Raiders, Quarterback - age 23 - 6'1" 210 lbs

They cut Tyler Wilson for him! It's noot too hard to imagine now that Tyler Wilson might still be worth something after the way McGloin has played. He's only started two games, but has already shown a grasp of the position's nuances that Terrelle Pryor has yet to display. He throws a really nice ball and is willing to ignore the inevitable pressure that comes with playing quarterback in Oakland. Only the 49ers had a worse passing offense than the Raiders before McGloin took over. It's highly unlikely that he will win the award, but if he continues raising the level of Oakland's passing game (and wins games) it's conceivable that some contrarian voter might give him a shout-out.

Projected Statistics (8 games, 7 starts):
137 att. 239 com. 57% 1687 yards 14 TDs 4 INTs // 18 rushes 10 yards


Larry Warford
Detroit Lions, Guard - age 22 - 6'3" 332 lbs

A huge, mauling force on the interior of the line, Larry Warford has given Detroit's offensive line an element that they haven't had in a long time. He has started every game for them this year and is a big part of why ProFootballFocus had Detroit's offense line ranked sixth in the league as of November 20th; with his 13.9 score, he's not only their highest-graded offensive rookie, he's playing like one of the best offensive lineman in the NFL. It seems like it would be impossible for an offensive lineman to win the award, especially a guard, but for the first time in awhile there isn't a young quarterback running away with it, and Warford is playing at an incredible level. He's undoubtably part of the reason Reggie Bush is having such success running the ball, and with the Lions leading the NFC North Larry Warford's personal excellence is translating to team success, too.


Eddie Lacy
Green Bay Packers, Running Back - age 22 - 5'11" 231 lbs

The Packers' running game has been greatly improved this year and Eddie Lacy has been a big part of that. They haven't had a running back they can rely on since Ryan Grant's peak, and Eddie Lacy is probably the most talented player they've had at the position since Ahman Green. He missed two games early in the season but is back and seems to be healthy now, getting over 30 touches and gaining over 150 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota. He wasn't nearly as effective the two weeks before Minnesota and without Aaron Rogers, and the Packers lost both games, so he's not going to be able to use the "kept Packers in the playoff hunt" card in his OROTY bid. But he has provided a very high level of production for a very visible team, and the final numbers will probably look good.

Projected Statistics (14 full games):
305 rushes 4.1 ypc 1238 yards 9 TDs // 34 catches 246 yards 1 TD 2 FUM


Giovani Bernard
Cincinnati Bengals, Running Back - age 22 - 5'9" 202 lbs

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a nice guy to have, but Giovani Bernard is special. He's not the fastest in a straight line, but he's slippery as hell and knows where to go. He's also got great hands and the Bengals can put him wherever they want on the field. He doesn't really power their running game right now, with Green-Ellis still starting and getting half again more carries, but Bernard has proven himself to be a far more explosive and effective player by getting almost as many yards on the ground. He's also second on the Bengals in receptions. The way they use him is reminiscent of the way Maurice Jones-Drew coexisted with the incumbent Fred Taylor when he first got to Jacksonville, but Gio's more Mercury than Hercules. The fact that the Bengals are most likely going to make the playoffs works in his favor, and he's simply special to watch, which probably ought to be the most important thing anyway.

Projected Statistics (16 games):
152 rushes 4.4 ypc 669 yards 6 TDs // 61 catches 498 yards 4 TDs 1 FUM


Andre Ellington
Arizona Cardinal, Running Back - age 24 - 5'9" 199lbs

Similarly to Giovani Bernard, Ellington has an established veteran "technically" starting and listed ahead of him on the depth chart, but also like Bernard, Ellington is clearly the more effective of the two and is providing a spark out of the backfield that his team had been lacking. The Cardinals have quietly played their way to a 7-4 record in the NFC West and just crushed Indianapolis. This is looking more and more like a playoff team, and when people look for reasons for Arizona's resurgence, Carson Palmer's overall mediocrity will prompt them to examine Arizona's overall roster. Despite only having about half as many carries as Rashard Mendenhall, Ellington has more yards and is also 4th on the team in catches. Given both Mendenhall's early-career success as well as Arizona's reputation for poor line play, there is reason to think that Ellington remarkable rushing average is evidence of a legitimate big-play talent.

Projected Statistics (16 games):
107 rushes 6.0 ypc 641 yards 3 TDs // 41 catches 360 yards 2 TDs 1 FUM


Zac Stacy
St. Louis Rams, Running Back - age 22 - 5'8" 224 lbs

Zac Stacy needs to be given a lot of credit for the Ram's recent competability. Who's quarterbacking this team? The Rams were 1-3 though the first four games, when Sam Bradford was starting and Zac Stacy was on the bench, and the two games they started and finished together in weeks 5 and 6 were both wins. The Rams are 4-3 overall since giving Stacy a major role in the offense. He hasn't been a breakaway threat, but he is extremely efficient and decisive with great balance, vision and anticipation. A recent head injury could affect his production in coming weeks and playing for a team with a losing record will make it difficult for him to win the award, but he's been just as productive as Eddie Lacy on a per-game basis and he hasn't had Aaron Rogers to keep defenders from loading the box. Of all the non-quarterback offensive rookies, he has been the most critical to his team's success.

Projected Statistics (12 games):
240 rushes 4.4 ypc 1063 yards 7 TDs // 27 catches 184 yards 2 TD 0 FUM


Tavon Austin
St. Louis Rams, Wide Receiver/Returner - age 22 - 5'8" 176 lbs

He didn't make many big plays the first half of the season, but the last two games have been an entirely different story with 4 huge touchdown plays: Touchdown catches of 81 and 57 yards, a run of 65 yards, and a 98-yard punt return. He'd had a couple of returns called back earlier in the year, but also had quite a few dropped passes and was displaying some growing pains. Now he's provided several of the NFL's most exciting plays in the last two weeks, and if he can keep showing up on highlight reels for the rest of the year he is going to make his way into the discussion as a multi-phase impact player. His projected totals are perhaps the most likely to end up on the low side of the players listed here, due to the fact that we've always expected him to be an explosive player and it has taken him some time to warm up and begin playing up to expectations. Now that he has, he should continue providing some sizzle for St. Louis' offense.

Projected Statistics (16 games):
50 catches 560 yards 6 TDs // 10 rushes 123 yards 2 TDs // 23.6 KR 8.7 PR 2 TDs


Keenan Allen
San Diego Chargers, Wide Receiver - age 21 - 6'2" 211 lbs

San Diego has found the man to replace Vincent Jackson as their top wideout and the early indications suggest that Keenan Allen could eventually be even better, and perhaps sooner than you think. A big, strong wideout with good route-running skills and reliable hands, Allen was Philip Rivers' favorite target by week 4 and since then has recorded four 100+ games as the Chargers' clear no. 1 receiver. Given that most wide receivers take longer to develop than other positions, Allen's early dominance and technical refinement is especially impressive.

Projected Statistics (15 games):
75 catches 1102 yards 5 TDs

Edit: Poll typo. Ya'll should be able to figure it out.

Last edited by Caulibflower : 11-25-2013 at 05:30 PM.
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Old 11-25-2013, 06:00 AM    (permalink
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I like Lacy with the Pack he's been a game changer all year longer. And ever since Rodgers they've had to rely on his power running game and it's help while they still have lost he still provides a big boost for that offense. It's too bad they may miss the play offs. Also Lacy stats look more impressive then any one else on that list.
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Old 11-25-2013, 06:07 AM    (permalink
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I don't know why it took Coach Fisher until week 5 to start Zac Stacy. Since he's been the starter he's averages 88.5 YPG on the ground. But hey i know the same argument can be said for most those guys.

My vote would be for Lacy.
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Old 11-25-2013, 08:53 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holt_bruce81 View Post
I don't know why it took Coach Fisher until week 5 to start Zac Stacy. Since he's been the starter he's averages 88.5 YPG on the ground. But hey i know the same argument can be said for most those guys.

My vote would be for Lacy.
I haven't seen many Rams games, but didn't it take him even longer to use Tavon? Or has he seen a lot of action all year and just now started to make plays?
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Old 11-25-2013, 09:30 AM    (permalink
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I think it'll be Lacy though I would probably vote for Keenan Allen.
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Old 11-25-2013, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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This year makes me wonder if teams will be less inclined to use high first round picks on guards anytime soon. Chance Warmack hasn't made much of a difference for the Titans yet and the Cardinals seem to be doing ok despite not having Cooper for a single down of regular season play. Meanwhile, a guy selected in the third round is widely viewed as the best rookie guard in the league.
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Old 11-25-2013, 10:55 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
This year makes me wonder if teams will be less inclined to use high first round picks on guards anytime soon. Chance Warmack hasn't made much of a difference for the Titans yet and the Cardinals seem to be doing ok despite not having Cooper for a single down of regular season play. Meanwhile, a guy selected in the third round is widely viewed as the best rookie guard in the league.
Not saying it won't happen but that can be used for other positions too. Hell, neither EJ Manual or Geno Smith have looked great this year and Mike Glennon has been the top rookie signal caller.

I don't think teams go in saying we need this position, or we can't take this position etc. If there is a guy available who is their top rated player left 9 times out of 10 they take him regardless of position
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AntoinCD View Post
Not saying it won't happen but that can be used for other positions too. Hell, neither EJ Manual or Geno Smith have looked great this year and Mike Glennon has been the top rookie signal caller.

I don't think teams go in saying we need this position, or we can't take this position etc. If there is a guy available who is their top rated player left 9 times out of 10 they take him regardless of position
QB and guard just aren't the same. If you pass on a QB you like, and he turns into Aaron Rodgers, that hurts. If you pass on a guard you like, and he turns out to be really good, is it really that big a deal.

Position matters. Last night we saw a team with a RB who ran for 227 yards lose to the team that had better QB play.
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:13 AM    (permalink
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Lacy Stacy or glennon. It's a tight one IMO. No way Matt mcgloin should be considered right now.
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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QB and guard just aren't the same. If you pass on a QB you like, and he turns into Aaron Rodgers, that hurts. If you pass on a guard you like, and he turns out to be really good, is it really that big a deal.

Position matters. Last night we saw a team with a RB who ran for 227 yards lose to the team that had better QB play.
True, but what I am getting at is teams who pass on the best player to fill a need, or go for positional value often end up regretting it. The Cardinals passed on Adrian Peterson because they had a need at OT. And most people will agree that OT trumps RB in terms of value but Peterson was far and away the BPA in that situation.

Especially when it comes to high picks (ie - first round) it generally turns out to be the best philosophy to take the top player on the board. The mid rounds are where you can look for those need picks.

I am definitely of the opinion that you take the most talented guy who fits what you want to do regardless of position. Every year there is always a guy who is taken later in the draft compared to his impact on the league. That doesn't necessarily mean the teams who passed made the wrong call. I'm also not a big believer in using previous trends to predict the draft. Just because 1 top 10 OG hasn't been dominant doesn't mean that the next one won't be either
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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The fact that Warford won't be considered shows you what determines these awards. According to what I've read, he's played every offensive snap for the Lions, but will be overlooked for players who've not even played in some games. The reason for that is that Warford doesn't have stats for people to look at.
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Warford and Pugh have arguably been the best rookie OLmen this year so far. Both have been great. I heard Dallas's C is doing well too.

I think Lacy should win it. He's been consistently awesome all year. Stacy is arguably better but he didn't turn it on until half way through the season so Lacy has a leg up on him.

Keenan Allen has been great too. It's btw those 3 to me with Lacy being the front runner.
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
The fact that Warford won't be considered shows you what determines these awards. According to what I've read, he's played every offensive snap for the Lions, but will be overlooked for players who've not even played in some games. The reason for that is that Warford doesn't have stats for people to look at.
Yeah but this is the case every year with awards. Not winning ROY does not mean you aren't the best player in the class (although I am not saying Warford is). Generally the way these awards work is:

QB - Wins
RB - Yards
DE - Sacks
CB/S - INTs
LB - Tackles

It is irrelevant if a CB gets beat like a mule if he gets 6 or 7 picks he is in with a great chance at the award. However if an OG blows people off the line and only gives up a few pressures people don't realise it.

I highly doubt NFL decision makers base their draft picks on who will win this award, or who will be the flashy pick
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Old 11-25-2013, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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I think Mike Glennon. It's easier for a decent rookie QB.
If Tavon keeps it up though he'll get it.
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Old 11-25-2013, 12:37 PM    (permalink
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Keenan Allen is going to end up with 1200 yards on 70 something catches if he plays remotely like has the last 5 or 6 games. I hate to throw out the homer vote but the QBs haven't set the world on fire and those would be certifiably insane numbers for a rookie wideout.
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Old 11-25-2013, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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Keenan Allen is going to end up with 1200 yards on 70 something catches if he plays remotely like has the last 5 or 6 games. I hate to throw out the homer vote but the QBs haven't set the world on fire and those would be certifiably insane numbers for a rookie wideout.
Agreed. This is why I said I would vote for him, but I think Lacy will end up winning.
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Old 11-25-2013, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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It's funny how much fans love RBs. Eddie Lacy did nothing in September, has 3 100+ yard games, and totaled 27 yards on 14 carries 2 weeks ago in a loss to the Giants, but fans act like he's been awesome every week.
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Old 11-25-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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It's funny how much fans love RBs. Eddie Lacy did nothing in September, has 3 100+ yard games, and totaled 27 yards on 14 carries 2 weeks ago in a loss to the Giants, but fans act like he's been awesome every week.
I prefer Gio. I have a football crush on him.
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Old 11-25-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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It's funny how much fans love RBs. Eddie Lacy did nothing in September, has 3 100+ yard games, and totaled 27 yards on 14 carries 2 weeks ago in a loss to the Giants, but fans act like he's been awesome every week.
Lacy didn't do anything the first month of the season because he effectively missed the second and third games with a concussion and then he had a week 4 bye, so you're basically saying that he didn't do anything in his very first NFL game. Since then, he's had yardage totals of 99, 120, 82, 94, 150, 73, 27, and 110. To put that into perspective, you need a 63 yards/game average over 16 games to rush for 1000 yards. It's rather disingenuous to arbitrarily throw out the 80 and 90 yard games, and then mention the one bad game during an eight game stretch in which he averaged 94 rushing yards per game.

Lacy is currently 8th in the league in rushing yardage (and this is despite the fact that "he did nothing in September") and he's also top-10 in the Football Outsiders DYAR and DVOA defense-adjusted efficiency metrics. He's easily a top-10 NFL RB this season.

I would personally give the award to Allen or Warford because I think it's much more difficult to just step in and make an impact at their positions, but lets not be silly just to make the case for somebody other than Lacy.

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Old 11-25-2013, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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I don't care if Lacy was kidnapped by aliens in September. The bottom line is he had little impact before October. Being injured doesn't change that fact.
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Old 11-25-2013, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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Tavon Austin is heating up.. I wanna see how things shake out at the end of the season with him
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Old 11-25-2013, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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I think Glennon is the most surprising, Lacy will have the best end of season stats, Warford is the best at his position among all rookies, and Giovani Bernard the most fun to watch. So I don't really know who to vote for.
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Old 11-25-2013, 04:49 PM    (permalink
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War daddy is playing at a higher level than all of them. He get's my vote.
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Old 11-25-2013, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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I don't know why we are doing this in season.

If someone is a big reason their team makes the playoffs, they're gonna move up my voting process.

With that said Zac Stacy is everything many thought he was and more.
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Old 11-25-2013, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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Warford, no contest.
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