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Old 12-02-2013, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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Default Breer: AJ McCarron Could Be 1st QB Taken

@nfldraftscout: MT @AlbertBreer: RE: AJ McCarron -- Enough people like him to where I think he has a shot to be the first quarterback taken.

@AlbertBreer: Here's the link for the college scouting director's McCarron/Brady comparison. http://t.co/2ixsF8XAHF I got that comp from a few NFL people.
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Old 12-02-2013, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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I just don't see it happening, he'll be a day 2 pick. A team I like him going to is Arizona where he could sit behind Palmer for a year or 2 plus working with Bruce Arians
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Old 12-02-2013, 05:43 PM    (permalink
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I just don't see it happening, he'll be a day 2 pick. A team I like him going to is Arizona where he could sit behind Palmer for a year or 2 plus working with Bruce Arians
Every year a QB comes out the wood-works. Last year Nassib came out of nowhere towards the end of workouts to climb up boards only to fall short of Rd 1. Also E.J. Manuel wasn't highly thought of but ended up become the lone QB to be taken in Rd 1. Point in case we just don't know until Draft Day.
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Old 12-02-2013, 06:04 PM    (permalink
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I don't like McCarron's pro prospects at all.

First of all, you can't even evaluate his film. It's almost useless. He's never breathed on let alone touched. Even with a perfect pocket 90% of the time and an incredibly easy PA situations set up by an unfair running game, he's never the best player on the field. He's a game manager at the college level.

He'll be labeled a winner and given all the intangibles praises when in reality no one has any clue what his intangibles are because he's never dealt with much adversity.

I do like that he has experience in a pro scheme in terms of his knowledge of the game. I don't like that he's been in a pro scheme that's unlike any pro scheme he'll ever see again - one where his opponents are all college kids lol.

He doesn't have a great arm. He's accurate but nothing crazy. He's got good size.

Check out his numbers in games where he throws it 30+ times.

Ole Miss: 22/30 for 180 and 2 tds
TAMU: 21/34 for 309 1 TD, 2 INT
Ole Miss: 25/32 for 180, no TDs and 1 INT
@Miss St: 18/32 for 187, 2 TDs and 2 INT

He's not even that consistent. There are games where he simply doesn't play well and others where his participation doesn't even matter or you don't even know he's playing.

So here's what we know: In games where you can protect him perfectly, give him an elite running game to set up PA, and only ask him to throw it about 20-to-25 times, he can be very effective. And he'll be the best player on the field about once every four games... in college.


Because he's smart, has pre-req size and some arm talent, I'm taking him as a developmental backup. 5th roundish. But first round? For AJ McCarron?

Think about this. A 2-time National Champion-winning QB on a powerhouse Alabama team with a good TD/INT ratio and perfect size IS NOT a consensus 1st-round pick. That's for a reason. He just doesn't have the special traits of an NFL athlete or QB. And most college fans know it. What's going to happen is that the airmchair scouts who watch primarily NFL football are going to narrative the **** out of his situation.

I think in the end, NFL teams will see it clearly that he's not worth a high draft pick. But with the need for QBs today, who knows.
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Old 12-02-2013, 06:52 PM    (permalink
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Harsh, but I think that's pretty dead on. My biggest concern is that he's so skinny and I don't think he moves well enough to avoid taking huge hits. Well that and his arm strength is below average. I've always thought he was Sam Bradford (who I was not a fan of coming out) without the arm strength.
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Old 12-02-2013, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by shylo3716 View Post
Every year a QB comes out the wood-works. Last year Nassib came out of nowhere towards the end of workouts to climb up boards only to fall short of Rd 1. Also E.J. Manuel wasn't highly thought of but ended up become the lone QB to be taken in Rd 1. Point in case we just don't know until Draft Day.
Nassib fell short of the 1st round? lol He went in the 4th round. After being overrated by many draftniks.

So, good comparison. That's where I see McCarron going.
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Old 12-02-2013, 08:51 PM    (permalink
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I don't like McCarron's pro prospects at all.

First of all, you can't even evaluate his film. It's almost useless. He's never breathed on let alone touched. Even with a perfect pocket 90% of the time and an incredibly easy PA situations set up by an unfair running game, he's never the best player on the field. He's a game manager at the college level.

He'll be labeled a winner and given all the intangibles praises when in reality no one has any clue what his intangibles are because he's never dealt with much adversity.

I do like that he has experience in a pro scheme in terms of his knowledge of the game. I don't like that he's been in a pro scheme that's unlike any pro scheme he'll ever see again - one where his opponents are all college kids lol.

He doesn't have a great arm. He's accurate but nothing crazy. He's got good size.

Check out his numbers in games where he throws it 30+ times.

Ole Miss: 22/30 for 180 and 2 tds
TAMU: 21/34 for 309 1 TD, 2 INT
Ole Miss: 25/32 for 180, no TDs and 1 INT
@Miss St: 18/32 for 187, 2 TDs and 2 INT

He's not even that consistent. There are games where he simply doesn't play well and others where his participation doesn't even matter or you don't even know he's playing.

So here's what we know: In games where you can protect him perfectly, give him an elite running game to set up PA, and only ask him to throw it about 20-to-25 times, he can be very effective. And he'll be the best player on the field about once every four games... in college.


Because he's smart, has pre-req size and some arm talent, I'm taking him as a developmental backup. 5th roundish. But first round? For AJ McCarron?

Think about this. A 2-time National Champion-winning QB on a powerhouse Alabama team with a good TD/INT ratio and perfect size IS NOT a consensus 1st-round pick. That's for a reason. He just doesn't have the special traits of an NFL athlete or QB. And most college fans know it. What's going to happen is that the airmchair scouts who watch primarily NFL football are going to narrative the **** out of his situation.

I think in the end, NFL teams will see it clearly that he's not worth a high draft pick. But with the need for QBs today, who knows.

This whole post screams Matt Lionheart....minus #1 overall pick potential.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:01 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a fan of McCarron as a prospect, but being the QB for a good team doesn't mean you've never faced adversity.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a fan of McCarron as a prospect, but being the QB for a good team doesn't mean you've never faced adversity.
That and the fact that they play good defenses for the most part. Guys like Bridgewater and Carr face a steady diet of cupcakes.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:11 PM    (permalink
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This whole post screams Matt Lionheart....minus #1 overall pick potential.
It's funny because I almost mentioned Leinart. The difference is that Leinart did MORE with more than McCarron did, if that makes any sense. Leinart at times looked like an absolute stud. We at least though - damn maybe he's really making these receivers look amazing just as much as the other way around. With McCarron it's undoubtedly not him that the offense is built around. It's the running game and how that action sets up high percentage PA plays. Yes, he hits some nice deep balls. But it's almost always 1-on-1 coverage with a perfect pocket. Any QB can throw deep like that and complete a good number. And he even misses at times.
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Old 12-03-2013, 06:17 AM    (permalink
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gpngc

I don't like McCarron's pro prospects at all.

First of all, you can't even evaluate his film. It's almost useless. He's never breathed on let alone touched. Even with a perfect pocket 90% of the time and an incredibly easy PA situations set up by an unfair running game, he's never the best player on the field. He's a game manager at the college level.

He'll be labeled a winner and given all the intangibles praises when in reality no one has any clue what his intangibles are because he's never dealt with much adversity.

I do like that he has experience in a pro scheme in terms of his knowledge of the game. I don't like that he's been in a pro scheme that's unlike any pro scheme he'll ever see again - one where his opponents are all college kids lol.

He doesn't have a great arm. He's accurate but nothing crazy. He's got good size.

Check out his numbers in games where he throws it 30+ times.

Ole Miss: 22/30 for 180 and 2 tds
TAMU: 21/34 for 309 1 TD, 2 INT
Ole Miss: 25/32 for 180, no TDs and 1 INT
@Miss St: 18/32 for 187, 2 TDs and 2 INT

He's not even that consistent. There are games where he simply doesn't play well and others where his participation doesn't even matter or you don't even know he's playing.

So here's what we know: In games where you can protect him perfectly, give him an elite running game to set up PA, and only ask him to throw it about 20-to-25 times, he can be very effective. And he'll be the best player on the field about once every four games... in college.


Because he's smart, has pre-req size and some arm talent, I'm taking him as a developmental backup. 5th roundish. But first round? For AJ McCarron?

Think about this. A 2-time National Champion-winning QB on a powerhouse Alabama team with a good TD/INT ratio and perfect size IS NOT a consensus 1st-round pick. That's for a reason. He just doesn't have the special traits of an NFL athlete or QB. And most college fans know it. What's going to happen is that the airmchair scouts who watch primarily NFL football are going to narrative the **** out of his situation.

I think in the end, NFL teams will see it clearly that he's not worth a high draft pick. But with the need for QBs today, who knows.
Well some of the things you say are are true.

But fact is considering who might be coming out for the draft at the QB position, no one is really that elite, Bridgewater is having a so so year, Manziel is a possible head case, Mettenberger if he works out well could jump them all, Boyd is ok but turns it over way too much, Murray is solid and could sneak up on people. Marcus Mariota if he comes out has a ton of potential but is in a system that makes QBs look much better than they are aka Dennis Dixon and Jeremiah Masoli. Bortles is a stud and coming on strong but who knows if he will come out. Chelf is playing great at the end of the year but still some questions about his consistency, then you have Fales who is playing great of late and could be just as good as any of the guys possibly above him. Logan Thomas has the size and is getting better but who knows with him and Stephen Morris has a talented arm but is an awful leader by the looks of it and not real motivated.


That is the thing that makes AJ McCarron interesting to me. He is a great leader, vocal leader, willing to call out his teammates and lead by example motivate when needed. Sure he is on a good team, has good players around him but I would not in any way say he is Matt Leinart. Leinart was a surfer boy, laid back since day one and was never a great team leader but people over looked it because he won. AJ McCarron is a fine leader and has a lot of attributes many successful QBs in the NFL have in terms of their mentality.

Just in the Auburn game, making that throw downfield in the back of their own end zone in a close game, that takes guts and confidence. Not just anyone in the nation could make that throw, so it is not like he has zero talent throwing the ball.

So in a class that has tons of very good QBs but no real elite guys....give me Winston all day over every single one of them....McCarron will be an interesting pick and for sure should be a late 1st or early 2nd round guy. Cannot take for granted his leadership abilities.
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Old 12-03-2013, 08:09 AM    (permalink
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Came in here to mention Nassib, see it's already been done.
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Old 12-03-2013, 08:13 AM    (permalink
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"Bridgewater is having a so-so year" = Bridgewater lost to a team that has a better QB than McCarron so everyone stopped paying attention to Louisville.

25 TD 3 INT 9.47 YPA 71% comp pct pretty mediocre imo
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Old 12-03-2013, 08:37 AM    (permalink
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That and the fact that they play good defenses for the most part. Guys like Bridgewater and Carr face a steady diet of cupcakes.
Meh, not really. The average defense they played was ranked 56.8 not including two FCS schools. They played one top-ten defense and 3 top-50 defenses.

Now let's compare that to Louisville. The average defense they played was ranked 55.9 plus one FCS school. They played 2 top-ten defenses and 4 top-50 defenses. So the level of competition argument doesn't really hold water.

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"Bridgewater is having a so-so year" = Bridgewater lost to a team that has a better QB than McCarron so everyone stopped paying attention to Louisville.

25 TD 3 INT 9.47 YPA 71% comp pct pretty mediocre imo
Unless Teddy is terrible the next two games, he'll finish with more yards, more TDs, a higher completition percentage, higher rating, higher yards per attempt, and fewer INTs. Anyone who thinks he has been so-so this year has been watching too much ESPN and not enough actual games.
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Old 12-03-2013, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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This whole post screams Matt Lionheart....minus #1 overall pick potential.
Leinart was way better than AJ in college.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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Media types don't realize when league sources are trolling them. Remember the Sharif Floyd hype?

The league knows they can use the media to hype up certain guys so others they're actually interested in will go under the radar.

This has all the symptoms of such a tactic.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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This has all the symptoms of such a tactic.
It doesn't hurt that Albert Breer is a terrible football writer.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:23 PM    (permalink
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It doesn't hurt that Albert Breer is a terrible football writer.
This is very true.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:55 PM    (permalink
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McCarron's production when he throws more than 30 times a game is shockingly unimpressive.

I still think he could develop into an NFL QB, but he's not the type of guy you select with the expectation he's the savior of your franchise.

It's possible McCarron is better than the system he played in, but that's pure conjecture at this point.

Comparing him to Tom Brady is ridiculous. Tom Brady wasn't Tom Brady when he was drafted.

Guys like Brady and Montana, their success in the pros can only be predicted in hindsight.

If Montana hadn't been selected by Bill Walsh and played in the WCO, he wouldn't have been nearly as great as he became.
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Old 12-03-2013, 02:57 PM    (permalink
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If you have a run game and defense, McCarron could be the type of QB you want/need.

Is an Alex Smith (minus mobility) comparison really that crazy? He is smart with the ball. Doesn't make a ton of mistakes (if any). Generally throws a nice catchable ball.
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Old 12-03-2013, 02:59 PM    (permalink
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If you have a run game and defense, McCarron could be the type of QB you want/need.

Is an Alex Smith (minus mobility) comparison really that crazy? He is smart with the ball. Doesn't make a ton of mistakes (if any). Generally throws a nice catchable ball.
Sounds good as a mid round backup qb. He shouldn't be viewed as anything beyond that. If he does give you more, then it's a bonus, but teams should approach him as a caretaker qb who'll make a solid backup.
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Old 12-03-2013, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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The Brady concept is the only thing keeping McCarron relevant. But the prospect who's come out recently that imo much more closely resembled Brady as a prospect is probably Nick Foles.

It's easier to say that now in hindsight but what Foles is doing in Philly is identical to what Brady did when he got the opportunity in NE.

And when you compare both as prospects coming out, it's hard to separate the two. Both with stature and production but as middle of the road as can be on football traits and both completely unassuming on presence. Impossible to say how long Foles can keep it up, but you never know.

In comparing McCarron to Foles then, the biggest difference is probably arm strength/velocity. Unless McCarron somehow develops a markedly stronger arm, I don't think he can do even what Foles has done thus far.
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Old 12-03-2013, 08:06 PM    (permalink
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Meh, not really. The average defense they played was ranked 56.8 not including two FCS schools. They played one top-ten defense and 3 top-50 defenses.

Now let's compare that to Louisville. The average defense they played was ranked 55.9 plus one FCS school. They played 2 top-ten defenses and 4 top-50 defenses. So the level of competition argument doesn't really hold water.


Unless Teddy is terrible the next two games, he'll finish with more yards, more TDs, a higher completition percentage, higher rating, higher yards per attempt, and fewer INTs. Anyone who thinks he has been so-so this year has been watching too much ESPN and not enough actual games.
Who are the 4 top 50 defenses Louisville played this season? Level of competition argument does not hold water?

So you are saying Alabama's level of competition and Louisville's is the same? Are you freaking joking?

The key is, do the defenses you play have NFL potential talent to measure up against. And outside of UCF and maybe a little off Rutgers and little Kentucky, Louisville has not played much NFL talent on defense.

When compared to Alabama who plays NFL talent on defense almost on a weekly basis at times. Just LSU alone has arguably 10-11 players who could potentially play in the NFL on defense and that was one game, Louisville maybe, just maybe played 10 NFL defensive prospects possibly all season so far with one game to go....
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Old 12-03-2013, 08:35 PM    (permalink
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When compared to Alabama who plays NFL talent on defense almost on a weekly basis at times. Just LSU alone has arguably 10-11 players who could potentially play in the NFL on defense and that was one game, Louisville maybe, just maybe played 10 NFL defensive prospects possibly all season so far with one game to go....
Why do you have to be such a sensationalist about this? AJ McCarron might be the 6th or 7th best offensive player on the field at any given time (Both Kuandijo(sic), Steen, Cooper, Yeldon, Jones) so all of that "HE'S FACING AN NFL DEFENSE" stuff can go out of the window because his cast is just as talented. Also, this LSU defense is the worst statistically of the past 4 seasons, but that doesn't matter because the name brand carries a ton of weight, right? Because of all of those successful LSU defenders in the NFL, right? Or because you watch CBS on Saturday afternoons and eat up with whatever pro-SEC propaganda Verne feeds you?

There is not a single thing on the field that McCarron can do that Teddy can't, while Teddy is much more productive as the focal point of a less talented team. Teddy is a better and more productive player than AJ McCarron.
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Old 12-03-2013, 08:51 PM    (permalink
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Why do you have to be such a sensationalist about this? AJ McCarron might be the 6th or 7th best offensive player on the field at any given time (Both Kuandijo(sic), Steen, Cooper, Yeldon, Jones) so all of that "HE'S FACING AN NFL DEFENSE" stuff can go out of the window because his cast is just as talented. Also, this LSU defense is the worst statistically of the past 4 seasons, but that doesn't matter because the name brand carries a ton of weight, right? Because of all of those successful LSU defenders in the NFL, right? Or because you watch CBS on Saturday afternoons and eat up with whatever pro-SEC propaganda Verne feeds you?

There is not a single thing on the field that McCarron can do that Teddy can't, while Teddy is much more productive as the focal point of a less talented team. Teddy is a better and more productive player than AJ McCarron.
Louisville is probably the most talented team in that conference. It's not like it is Bridgewater and a bunch of scrubs playing every week. Plenty of other QBs have been questioned for playing against weaker competition (Derek Carr comes to mind in this draft) so it is a valid point to mention this as a question for Bridgewater leading up to the draft.
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