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Old 12-09-2013, 06:23 PM    (permalink
CLong4Heisman
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Their defense is still playing very well for the most part. They need a Quarterback. How many elite traits did Matt Ryan show coming out? What has Jay Cutler shown that would make Watt think hes the one that will get them over the top?
My comment about people use the elite traits argument is not my opinion. I was just talking about what I've seen from some people. I think Bridgewater is a mile ahead of any other quarterback in this class.

The Jay Cutler signing is just an example. It doesn't have to be him, we don't know who else could be available come the free agent market.

We could also be looking at a situation similar to the Mario Williams draft. Houston's front office recognizes that you have to get pressure on the QB to survive the division and takes the pass rusher. The good thing about getting a veteran QB with a new coach is that if it doesn't work and you're stuck in the top 5 again, you have the fallback of Winston or Mariota.
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Old 12-09-2013, 06:35 PM    (permalink
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Which is impossible to measure when going from the worst BCS conference to the NFL.
You evaluate the player not his competition, we just had a superbowl where the QB's came from Nevada and Deleware.

Ben Roethlisberger who has been mentioned as a trade option came from miami ohio, the best team he played that year was iowa and he threw 4 picks and no TD's. If that was today you can imagine the narrative "exposed vs higher competition"
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10...n-nfl-hot-read

Scout on Clowney:

Quote:
"If you don't have a stud left tackle to deal with him, then you don't have a chance. When he doesn't want to be blocked, there are few people who can block him."
Quote:
One AFC scout said Bridgewater "is a really good athlete with a nice arm, but from what I saw, Mariota was the better prospect." An AFC general manager added that Bridgewater "has dropped off some [since his sophomore year]. He does have that quick release, but he's as thin as can be. All his weight is in his ass and he has skinny ankles and wrists. This is the big-boy league, and you have to be able to absorb pounding. He's a great kid, and he'll get drafted high, but is he a sure thing? I can't say that."
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One NFC general manager said Clowney does look "like a player who is playing around the edges to avoid getting hurt," but the AFC scout said some of the jabs at Clowney are unfair. "He does take plays off, but a lot of guys do that," the AFC scout said. "He also doesn't have any legal issues. The big thing with him is that he's used to being on his own program because that's probably how Spurrier got him in the first place."
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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McShay echoed the same concerns about Bridgewater. Durability at the next level would be the concern as it will with Manziel too.
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:27 PM    (permalink
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You evaluate the player not his competition, we just had a superbowl where the QB's came from Nevada and Deleware.

Ben Roethlisberger who has been mentioned as a trade option came from miami ohio, the best team he played that year was iowa and he threw 4 picks and no TD's. If that was today you can imagine the narrative "exposed vs higher competition"
And it's impossible to evaluate a player without looking at the competition he faces. I also don't think it's fair to use Joe Flacco as an example here, out of HS he was a Top 250 prospect with multiple offers from BCS schools. He transferred down to D1-AA/FCS because he could play immediately, so it isn't like he was some unknown gem that Delaware found.

As for Kaepernick, coming from the offense he did and level of competition he faced, there were extremely valid questions about his ability to translate into a QB at the NFL. His arm was never in question, but multiple other nuances of the game were (and still are) in question.

But if we want to play the game of ignoring prospects level of competition in college who then turned out to be failures in the NFL taken in the first 2 rounds this millennium.

David Carr, Fresno State
Pat White, West Virginia
Kevin Kolb, Houston
John Beck, BYU
Brian Brohm, Louisville
Tarvaris Jackson, Alabama State
Alex Smith, Utah
J.P. Losman, Tulane
Patrick Ramsey, Tulane

Two of them were #1 overall picks coming from non-BCS conferences. Smith has improved but for the 49ers he was very much a bust and David Carr, nuff said. The worse the competition they face the harder it is to accurately rate them and the riskier the pick becomes. When you have the #1 overall pick and there is a once in a generation player available at a critical position, you take him over a QB who faced bad competition in college and has many questions about his ability to translate at the NFL.
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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Now in the interest of fairness, here is every QB drafted from a non-AQ conference this millennium.

2000
Chad Pennington, Marshall
Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra
Chris Redman, Louisville
Spergon Wynn, Southwest Texas State
JaJuan Seider, Florida A&M
Tim Rattay, Louisiana Tech

Only Pennington can be seen as even a moderately successful NFL QB.

2001
None

2002
David Carr, Fresno State
Patrick Ramsey, Tulane
Josh McCown, Sam Houston State
David Garrard, East Carolina
Brandon Doman, BYU
Craig Nall, Northwestern State
J.T. O'Sullivan, Cal-Davis
Seth Burford, Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
Jeff Kelly, Southern Miss
Wes Pate, Stephen F. Austin

Garrard and McCown are the most successful, let that sink in.

2003
Byron Leftwich, Marshall
Dave Ragone, Louisville

Leftwich had some success early on, but is disappointing as a Top 10 pick.

2004
Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (OH)
J.P. Losman, Tulane
Luke McCown, Louisiana Tech
Andy Hall, Delaware
Josh Harris, Bowling Green
Casey Bramlet, Wyoming
Bradlee Van Pelt, Colorado State

Big Ben is an exception, but the others?

2005
Charlie Frye, Akron
James Kilian, Tulsa
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard

Fitzpatrick hasn't been a waste, but was also a 7th Rounder.

2006
Tarvaris Jackson, Alabama State
Ingle Martin, Furman (Florida transfer)
Omar Jacobs, Bowling Green
Bruce Gradkowski, Toledo

Nuff said

2007
Kevin Kolb, Houston
John Beck, BYU
Jeff Rowe, Nevada
Jordan Palmer, UTEP
Tyler Thigpen, Coastal Carolina

Kolb was paid like he was good, never played like it though.

2008
Joe Flacco, Delaware (Pittsburgh transfer)
Brian Brohm, Louisville
Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
Josh Johnson, San Diego
Colt Brennan, Hawaii (Colorado transfer)

Flacco is an exception as previously noted. The others though, a bunch of wasted picks.

2009
Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State (Oklahoma transfer)
Nate Davis, Ball State
Tom Brandstater, Fresno State
Keith Null, West Texas A&M

Have any of them even started an NFL game?

2010
John Skelton, Fordham
Rusty Smith, FAU
Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
Joe Webb, UAB
Levi Brown, Troy

2011
Andy Dalton, TCU
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
Nathan Enderle, Idaho

Dalton and Kaepernick have lead their teams to the playoffs.

2012
Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
B.J. Coleman, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois

2013
Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah
Zac Dysert, Miami (OH)

Clearly taking kid from non-AQ conferences is an incredibly risky pick unless taken late where they'd have little to no consequences for not making the team, but certainly not at the #1 overall pick.
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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And it's impossible to evaluate a player without looking at the competition he faces. I also don't think it's fair to use Joe Flacco as an example here, out of HS he was a Top 250 prospect with multiple offers from BCS schools. He transferred down to D1-AA/FCS because he could play immediately, so it isn't like he was some unknown gem that Delaware found.

As for Kaepernick, coming from the offense he did and level of competition he faced, there were extremely valid questions about his ability to translate into a QB at the NFL. His arm was never in question, but multiple other nuances of the game were (and still are) in question.

But if we want to play the game of ignoring prospects level of competition in college who then turned out to be failures in the NFL taken in the first 2 rounds this millennium.

David Carr, Fresno State
Pat White, West Virginia
Kevin Kolb, Houston
John Beck, BYU
Brian Brohm, Louisville
Tarvaris Jackson, Alabama State
Alex Smith, Utah
J.P. Losman, Tulane
Patrick Ramsey, Tulane

Two of them were #1 overall picks coming from non-BCS conferences. Smith has improved but for the 49ers he was very much a bust and David Carr, nuff said. The worse the competition they face the harder it is to accurately rate them and the riskier the pick becomes. When you have the #1 overall pick and there is a once in a generation player available at a critical position, you take him over a QB who faced bad competition in college and has many questions about his ability to translate at the NFL.
This is simply all wrong. Where is the list of BCS conference QB's that failed? Also, while you're facing weaker competition, you're also playing with a weaker supporting cast as well, generally speaking. That's one of the surest ways to miss out on quality prospects by dismissing them because of the conference they play in.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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This is simply all wrong. Where is the list of BCS conference QB's that failed? Also, while you're facing weaker competition, you're also playing with a weaker supporting cast as well, generally speaking. That's one of the surest ways to miss out on quality prospects by dismissing them because of the conference they play in.
Since 2000, 59 non-AQ QBs have been selected, 6 have become effective NFL players, meaning you have about a 10.2% chance of finding an effective NFL QB when looking at non-AQ prospects.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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Since 2000, 59 non-AQ QBs have been selected, 6 have become effective NFL players, meaning you have about a 10.2% chance of finding an effective NFL QB when looking at non-AQ prospects.
Again, where's the list of BCS conference QB's?
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:32 PM    (permalink
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Since 2000, 59 non-AQ QBs have been selected, 6 have become effective NFL players, meaning you have about a 10.2% chance of finding an effective NFL QB when looking at non-AQ prospects.
If you only include first rounders then they are 3/8 and that's not including Alex Smith. Chad Pennington was very successful before injuries destroyed his career but he has a career Qb Rating over 90. Rothlisberger and Flacco have won 3 of the last 7 superbowls. Pointing to the failures of late round Qb picks as proof that small school prospects can't succeed in the NFL is just dumb. This is an example of choosing a small set of flawed data to try to prove a point and saying that 2/8 1st rounders are exceptions doesn't work.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:39 PM    (permalink
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And it's impossible to evaluate a player without looking at the competition he faces. I also don't think it's fair to use Joe Flacco as an example here, out of HS he was a Top 250 prospect with multiple offers from BCS schools. He transferred down to D1-AA/FCS because he could play immediately, so it isn't like he was some unknown gem that Delaware found.

As for Kaepernick, coming from the offense he did and level of competition he faced, there were extremely valid questions about his ability to translate into a QB at the NFL. His arm was never in question, but multiple other nuances of the game were (and still are) in question.

But if we want to play the game of ignoring prospects level of competition in college who then turned out to be failures in the NFL taken in the first 2 rounds this millennium.

David Carr, Fresno State
Pat White, West Virginia
Kevin Kolb, Houston
John Beck, BYU
Brian Brohm, Louisville
Tarvaris Jackson, Alabama State
Alex Smith, Utah
J.P. Losman, Tulane
Patrick Ramsey, Tulane

Two of them were #1 overall picks coming from non-BCS conferences. Smith has improved but for the 49ers he was very much a bust and David Carr, nuff said. The worse the competition they face the harder it is to accurately rate them and the riskier the pick becomes. When you have the #1 overall pick and there is a once in a generation player available at a critical position, you take him over a QB who faced bad competition in college and has many questions about his ability to translate at the NFL.
Difference is you can go back to last year and see bridgewater in a tougher schedule and he still balled.

Bridgewater was also a highly recruited guy if your bringing that up with flacco, he de-commited from miami as they changed head coaches and he nearly went to LSU but they signed mettenburg instead.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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BCS QBs taken in the First 2 Rounds since 2000

Bold denotes effective NFL player

2000
None taken

2001
Michael Vick, Virginia Tech
Drew Brees, Purdue

Quincy Carter, Georgia
Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington

2002
Joey Harrington, Oregon

2003
Carson Palmer, USC
Kyle Boller, California
Rex Grossman, Florida

2004
Eli Manning, Ole Miss
Philip Rivers, N.C. State


2005
Aaron Rodgers, California
Jason Campbell, Auburn


2006
Vince Young, Texas (won't call him effective, was however a Pro Bowler)
Matt Leinart, USC
Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Kellen Clemens, Oregon

2007
JaMarcus Russell, LSU
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Drew Stanton, Michigan State

2008
Matt Ryan, Boston College

2009
Matthew Stafford, Georgia
Mark Sanchez, USC
Josh Freeman, Kansas State

2010
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Tim Tebow, Florida
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

2011
Cam Newton, Auburn
Jake Locker, Washington
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Christian Ponder, Florida State

2012
Andrew Luck, Stanford
Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Brock Osweiler, Arizona State

2013
E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Geno Smith, West Virginia

Of the 37 taken, 17 have become effective NFL players (with it being too early to judge on 2013, so knock that number down to 35 and you are just under a 50% success rate.

Can we stop pretending level of college competition doesn't matter because of the few exceptions now?
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:43 PM    (permalink
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BCS QBs taken in the First 2 Rounds since 2000

Bold denotes effective NFL player

2000
None taken

2001
Michael Vick, Virginia Tech
Drew Brees, Purdue

Quincy Carter, Georgia
Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington

2002
Joey Harrington, Oregon

2003
Carson Palmer, USC
Kyle Boller, California
Rex Grossman, Florida

2004
Eli Manning, Ole Miss
Philip Rivers, N.C. State


2005
Aaron Rodgers, California
Jason Campbell, Auburn


2006
Vince Young, Texas (won't call him effective, was however a Pro Bowler)
Matt Leinart, USC
Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Kellen Clemens, Oregon

2007
JaMarcus Russell, LSU
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Drew Stanton, Michigan State

2008
Matt Ryan, Boston College

2009
Matthew Stafford, Georgia
Mark Sanchez, USC
Josh Freeman, Kansas State

2010
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Tim Tebow, Florida
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

2011
Cam Newton, Auburn
Jake Locker, Washington
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Christian Ponder, Florida State

2012
Andrew Luck, Stanford
Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Brock Osweiler, Arizona State

2013
E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Geno Smith, West Virginia

Of the 37 taken, 17 have become effective NFL players (with it being too early to judge on 2013, so knock that number down to 35 and you are just under a 50% success rate.

Can we stop pretending level of college competition doesn't matter because of the few exceptions now?
In the last post you noted all QB's drafted out of non AQ conferences and now you've narrowed it down to just the top 2 rounds. You're being purposefully misleading now...
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:45 PM    (permalink
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And also, on one hand Alex Smith was a bust, but Rex friggin Grossman was an effective NFL player? If he was then so was Tarvaris Jackson.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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And also, on one hand Alex Smith was a bust, but Rex friggin Grossman was an effective NFL player? If he was then so was Tarvaris Jackson.
When did Tarvaris Jackson get a team to the Super Bowl? Did I miss that mythical season? I also ignored Vince Young, despite having a Pro Bowl appearance.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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blah blah blah meaningless stats that no effect on the success or failure of any QB in the 2014 Draft.

I bet when Ozzie Newsome scouted Joe Flacco, he didn't give two shits about any QB prospect other than Joe Flacco. He scouted Joe Flacco.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by MassNole View Post
When did Tarvaris Jackson get a team to the Super Bowl? Did I miss that mythical season? I also ignored Vince Young, despite having a Pro Bowl appearance.
Rex Grossman didn't get a team anywhere. The Bears made the Super Bowl despite him. Jackson's career numbers are better.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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Can we stop pretending level of college competition doesn't matter because of the few exceptions now?
I guess we should also disregard big 12 QB's even though it's a big conference so the competion must be great. When was the last big 12 QB that had long term success?

Like i said you look at the player and see that he is asked to do, what bridgewater excels at translate to the NFL. He runs the offense at the line of scrimmage, not many College QB's do that. He has great pocket awareness and can read defenses and has great anticipation on throws. These are the thing's that usually catch out QB's when stepping up a level, Bridgewater does not have those issues and he has room to grow physically.
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Old 12-10-2013, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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BCS QBs taken in the First 2 Rounds since 2000

Bold denotes effective NFL player

2000
None taken

2001
Michael Vick, Virginia Tech
Drew Brees, Purdue

Quincy Carter, Georgia
Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington

2002
Joey Harrington, Oregon

2003
Carson Palmer, USC
Kyle Boller, California
Rex Grossman, Florida

2004
Eli Manning, Ole Miss
Philip Rivers, N.C. State


2005
Aaron Rodgers, California
Jason Campbell, Auburn


2006
Vince Young, Texas (won't call him effective, was however a Pro Bowler)
Matt Leinart, USC
Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Kellen Clemens, Oregon

2007
JaMarcus Russell, LSU
Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Drew Stanton, Michigan State

2008
Matt Ryan, Boston College

2009
Matthew Stafford, Georgia
Mark Sanchez, USC
Josh Freeman, Kansas State

2010
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Tim Tebow, Florida
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

2011
Cam Newton, Auburn
Jake Locker, Washington
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Christian Ponder, Florida State

2012
Andrew Luck, Stanford
Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Brock Osweiler, Arizona State

2013
E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Geno Smith, West Virginia

Of the 37 taken, 17 have become effective NFL players (with it being too early to judge on 2013, so knock that number down to 35 and you are just under a 50% success rate.

Can we stop pretending level of college competition doesn't matter because of the few exceptions now?
Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, and Josh Freeman are successful NFL Qbs but Alex Smith isn't? You're trolling, right?
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Old 12-10-2013, 05:24 PM    (permalink
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Yea I'm leaning Clowney but there are way better ways to critique Bridgewater's prospects than listing busts and successes and trying to draw some correlation.

Judge the player for what he is.
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Old 12-15-2013, 06:21 AM    (permalink
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Tyoka Jackson was on "The Morning After" (which is a great radio show, I would recommend it for the St. Louis peeps) and he mentioned that he believes that Shannahan never wanted RG3 in the first place and it was a Dan Snyder pick and not a coaches pick. And that the Cousins pick was a pick made by Shanny. And apparently there are already rumors swirling that Shannahan could end up in Houston and he's auditioning Cousins for a trade to take the QB with him to Houston.

I'm paraphrasing but listening to him it made a lot of sense.
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Old 12-15-2013, 08:36 AM    (permalink
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Tyoka Jackson was on "The Morning After" (which is a great radio show, I would recommend it for the St. Louis peeps) and he mentioned that he believes that Shannahan never wanted RG3 in the first place and it was a Dan Snyder pick and not a coaches pick. And that the Cousins pick was a pick made by Shanny. And apparently there are already rumors swirling that Shannahan could end up in Houston and he's auditioning Cousins for a trade to take the QB with him to Houston.

I'm paraphrasing but listening to him it made a lot of sense.
Why would he Audition him if he wanted to take him to Houston, he would want to keep his value as low as possible not increase it.

Plus if this who situation is just going to piss of Snyder i bet the last person he would trade Cousins to is shannahan coached team.
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Old 12-15-2013, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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Why would he Audition him if he wanted to take him to Houston, he would want to keep his value as low as possible not increase it.

Plus if this who situation is just going to piss of Snyder i bet the last person he would trade Cousins to is shannahan coached team.
Maybe to get Houston's front office on board with it.
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Old 12-15-2013, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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I heard Houston was not interested in Shannahan. I think they are trying to flip Cousins to try and get some draft picks they traded away when they moved up for Griffin.
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Old 12-15-2013, 07:52 PM    (permalink
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Houston beat writers are adamant that Shanny has no chance at the Texans job.
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