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Old 01-03-2014, 04:07 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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Originally Posted by mightytitan9 View Post
I don't think Long warrants the trade ability that Quinn does. They can't really trade him until after the 2014 season (which again I think would be best because they see what Clowney can do for a year). After that if I am reading the numbers right he'd account for only $3m in dead money, BUT he'll be turning 30. So Idk how to predict the value of him.

As for the tackle situation, the good would be that you have a guy to cover LT if Long takes longer than expected, or if injuries continue for him. It'd be nice to have a guy there because I think Long is due to miss games every year, it's just what he is IMO.

Still, with that being said, I couldn't pass on Clowney. I'd take Clowney, then go grab the best tackle available.
Trading Quinn is out of the question though. Trading Long wouldn't be difficult.
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:07 PM    (permalink
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Trading Quinn is out of the question though. Trading Long wouldn't be difficult.
No, it's really not
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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I mean we'll agree to disagree. You don't trade the best pass rushing 4-3 DE in the NFL at 23 years old. You just don't.
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:14 PM    (permalink
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I'm not saying you trade him right now, I'm saying you draft Clowney, let Quinn play out his 2014 year. If you want you can use your club option for 2015 which would be pretty high, or just trade him right then.

Every few years there's a new "best pass rushing 4-3 DE", in two to three years it's going to be Clowney.

Quinn would warrant a first and probably a 2nd rounder (following year) and a 3rd in that year.

Quinn hardly plays the run, and you'd have Long and Clowney. Take the value when you can.
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by mightytitan9 View Post
I'm not saying you trade him right now, I'm saying you draft Clowney, let Quinn play out his 2014 year. Franchise him and trade him.

Every few years there's a new "best pass rushing 4-3 DE", in two to three years it's going to be Clowney.

Quinn would warrant a first and probably a 2nd rounder (following year) and a 3rd in that year.

Quinn hardly plays the run, and you'd have Long and Clowney. Take the value when you can.
Unequivocally untrue.

This is an awful long-term plan. My idea to shop Long now in order to open up LE for Clowney is a long-shot and probably unrealistic. Your plan to play them all so that you can trade Quinn NEXT year is just ridiculous.

Quinn's not going anywhere. Long's probably not either. But I'd at least consider the latter.
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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Unequivocally untrue.

This is an awful long-term plan. My idea to shop Long now in order to open up LE for Clowney is a long-shot and probably unrealistic. Your plan to play them all so that you can trade Quinn NEXT year is just ridiculous.

Quinn's not going anywhere. Long's probably not either. But I'd at least consider the latter.
Long would account for 17.7m in dead money if you trade him now.

Brilliant plan there!
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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What could you possibly get in return for Quinn that would make trading him make sense?
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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What could you possibly get in return for Quinn that would make trading him make sense?
Likely a first and 2nd.

And not have to pay him 10m a year.

The other scenario is to keep all 3 through 2015, sign Quinn to a big deal and trade Long once his cap hit gets lower. His trade value would be less, but you'd get two of the youngest stud pass rushers on your team locked up through 2019.
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Old 01-03-2014, 04:39 PM    (permalink
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Long would account for 17.7m in dead money if you trade him now.

Brilliant plan there!
Like I said, a long-shot and probably unrealistic. I didn't look at the contract clearly.

So it looks like they're "stuck" with both DEs. They could still take Clowney, but it would be a tough sell because he wouldn't start.
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Old 01-04-2014, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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I got to admit that it is certainly the Giant's philosophy at the draft table but I strongly suspect, they'll draft Matthews to fill the LT position and protect their injury prone QB. All the defense in the world won't mean squat if they cannot keep Bradford healthy.
The rams also have #13. This year's OT class is very solid, there will be good OT options available at 13.
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Old 01-04-2014, 05:27 PM    (permalink
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In regards to Long, you take a big cap hit, but then you have it all off the cap by the next year. Sometimes you have to eat some cap space short term. For how cheap Clowney would be, its probably worth it if you find the right trade.
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Old 01-04-2014, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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In regards to Long, you take a big cap hit, but then you have it all off the cap by the next year. Sometimes you have to eat some cap space short term. For how cheap Clowney would be, its probably worth it if you find the right trade.
I'd hold onto him a year, you get a chance to watch Clowney up close and Longs cap hit decreases to 3m
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Old 01-04-2014, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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Send Chris Long to Seattle. I'll pick up the air fare.
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Old 01-04-2014, 06:05 PM    (permalink
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Why in the Hell would the rams trade a young stud in Quinn for a potential good first rounder? This isn't Madden.
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Old 01-04-2014, 06:32 PM    (permalink
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Quinn is a non starter. YOu don't trade him, period.
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Old 01-13-2014, 03:05 PM    (permalink
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If Barr has to put his hand in the dirt, as a RDE in a 4-3, he's gonna struggle.


First off, while Barr seems to have mastered speed pass rush moves, he has yet to figure out effective counters to the OL's run blocking. He has trouble disengaging aggressive blocks..... but he seems to destroy passive blocks well with speed. He could, but has not yet. Gonna need coaching up there.

Second, against OT's with good footwork, Barr could very well get manhandled for long stretches. Since his positions change, he has not fared well against top competition at OT. Not that he's seen many either, really, outside of what Stanford has fielded. That's a concern, as he'll get a heavy dose of far superior, and far more technically sound OT's than he's ever played against in the NFL.



As a rushing OLB, that's his niche. He can be put in better position to succeed in that role, and that's what it should be. Not as a 4-3 RDE.
I think that's a pretty fair breakdown and confirms what I think as well. When I saw him try and go against an OT, or even a large TE, he doesn't shed blocks very well and seems to get manhandled.

I'm a little concerned he won't be able to use and rely on his speed in the NFL as much as he was able to in college, which would be a huge blow to his effectiveness.

I personally would be disappointed if the Jags drafted him at 3. If we are going non-QB, it's Clowney or Mack IMO.
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Old 01-13-2014, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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Why in the Hell would the rams trade a young stud in Quinn for a potential good first rounder? This isn't Madden.
Rams did it with Kevin Carter, Chiefs did it with Jared Allen. It's a good thing to do if you know you're not going to be able to resign them
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Old 01-13-2014, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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Yes because he'll be playing for atlanta
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Old 01-13-2014, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta runs a lot of 34 too. If they get Barr I expect them to make a full transition to the 3-4.
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Old 01-14-2014, 08:04 AM    (permalink
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Why in the Hell would the rams trade a young stud in Quinn for a potential good first rounder? This isn't Madden.
Look, I agree about not trading Quinn but calling Clowney a potential good first rounder??? Come on!!! Clowney's potential is best in the league.

I can understand saying you don't want to trade Quinn because he is a great player, or that you think Clowney is too big a risk or whatever. But when you project players to the NFL you do so looking at what you think they could become. I think every single person you ask will admit if Clowney reaches his potential he will be more than simply "good".

In relation to all the talk of who the Rams should take I think it should be Clowney but can understand a trade down. I agree with BBD that OT is such an overrated position.

Good drafting teams take the best available player regardless of position unless you badly need a QB. You can argue either way about the Rams need on that front but I think their decision makers will ride with Bradford. Then it becomes a case of drafting for need or drafting for value.

Here is why I always prefer drafting for value:

1. By choosing a position of need over the best available player, over time you will have a team full of inferior talent

2. Needs change year in, year out. Long or Quinn could blow out their knee in week 1. Quinn could demand a massive contract that the team isn't willing, or can't afford to pay.

3. Teams get in trouble with the cap because they can't replace vets with younger talent. By drafting players who can step in for any player you can reduce the risk of having to overpay someone.

4. You don't draft a player for their contributions in their rookie year. Yes, some players will have great rookie years but you draft a guy for sustained success with the hopes of him becoming a franchise type player. Who cares if Clowney "only" plays 50% of snaps this year?
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Old 01-14-2014, 08:08 AM    (permalink
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As for Barr, I think he could play in a 43 and a 34. Don't get me wrong I really like him but think he is getting overhyped. Personally I would take Khalil Mack over him.

I would comfortably rate Mack a top 10 player, with Barr being top 15. Although I do think both will go top 10
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Old 01-14-2014, 08:20 AM    (permalink
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Look, I agree about not trading Quinn but calling Clowney a potential good first rounder??? Come on!!! Clowney's potential is best in the league.

I can understand saying you don't want to trade Quinn because he is a great player, or that you think Clowney is too big a risk or whatever. But when you project players to the NFL you do so looking at what you think they could become. I think every single person you ask will admit if Clowney reaches his potential he will be more than simply "good".

In relation to all the talk of who the Rams should take I think it should be Clowney but can understand a trade down. I agree with BBD that OT is such an overrated position.

Good drafting teams take the best available player regardless of position unless you badly need a QB. You can argue either way about the Rams need on that front but I think their decision makers will ride with Bradford. Then it becomes a case of drafting for need or drafting for value.

Here is why I always prefer drafting for value:

1. By choosing a position of need over the best available player, over time you will have a team full of inferior talent

2. Needs change year in, year out. Long or Quinn could blow out their knee in week 1. Quinn could demand a massive contract that the team isn't willing, or can't afford to pay.

3. Teams get in trouble with the cap because they can't replace vets with younger talent. By drafting players who can step in for any player you can reduce the risk of having to overpay someone.

4. You don't draft a player for their contributions in their rookie year. Yes, some players will have great rookie years but you draft a guy for sustained success with the hopes of him becoming a franchise type player. Who cares if Clowney "only" plays 50% of snaps this year?
I'm not sure there is much of a value vs. need argument at 2. In all likelihood there is going to be a prospect taken between 2-UDFA that will turn out to be better than Clowney in the pros. It's on the Rams to find that guy. They've been terrible forever, and they need to get better. Does Clowney provide them the best route to get there, probably not. The cap value argument doesn't really play a role because the Rams don't have a ton of guys who are going to be on lucrative 2nd contracts by the time Quinn comes up, so I don't think a cap crunch is a good enough reason to shove Quinn or Long out the door.
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Old 01-14-2014, 08:33 AM    (permalink
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I'm not sure there is much of a value vs. need argument at 2. In all likelihood there is going to be a prospect taken between 2-UDFA that will turn out to be better than Clowney in the pros. It's on the Rams to find that guy. They've been terrible forever, and they need to get better. Does Clowney provide them the best route to get there, probably not. The cap value argument doesn't really play a role because the Rams don't have a ton of guys who are going to be on lucrative 2nd contracts by the time Quinn comes up, so I don't think a cap crunch is a good enough reason to shove Quinn or Long out the door.
But if their scouting department comes away and believes that Clowney is the best thing since sliced bread then in the same way they shouldn't pass on him because they have some DEs already.

Based on potential, most would agree that Clowney should be the best player from this class.

In 10 years if Clowney turns out to be a HOF caliber player the Rams can't really be happy with saying, "it's ok, we passed on a potential great player because we had a really good player and another good player at that position"

Yes, when drafting highly you tend to be a bad team, but this is Washington's pick and the Rams aren't that bad right now. They don't have a ton of glaring needs.

I would probably rate their needs as:

1. Safety
2. SAM LB
3. Offensive Line
4. DT

Outside of Jake Matthews nobody makes any sort of sense at this spot at those positions unless someone like Hageman rises up boards.

Realistically, for the Rams the best way to get better IMO would be to take a QB or trade down and pick up some extra picks. The first one is really unlikely and the second one isn't guaranteed. So, if they are stuck with the pick they either draft for need for a player who may well be of less talent or take the best player. I would almost always agree with taking the better player. But that is just my opinion, I know other people disagree. However, rarely do you see consistently good teams reach for need in the draft, although I do take your point that at #2 you aren't necessarily reaching and you will get a good player.
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Old 01-14-2014, 08:45 AM    (permalink
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They may, but in all likelihood someone will probably receive a grade near where Clowney is. I don't believe the gap is as large as some of you believe (although I barely watched any college football this year, so I have no basis for comparison).

Even if you look at past blue chippers (Miller, Suh, C. Johnson) there have always been comparable players taken around them. Sure they may be safe and have turned into pro bowlers, but that didn't mean that guys like A. Peterson, P. Peterson, Gerald McCoy, AJ Green, Joe Thomas, Trent Williams, ect. were slouches. By taking Clowney you're basically shoving one of your better starters out the door in 2 years, and probably throwing away your best chance to add a game changer at another position that you'll have in awhile.

There is going to be someone who turns out much better than we think right now, the Rams need to find that guy.
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They may, but in all likelihood someone will probably receive a grade near where Clowney is. I don't believe the gap is as large as some of you believe (although I barely watched any college football this year, so I have no basis for comparison).

Even if you look at past blue chippers (Miller, Suh, C. Johnson) there have always been comparable players taken around them. Sure they may be safe and have turned into pro bowlers, but that didn't mean that guys like A. Peterson, P. Peterson, Gerald McCoy, AJ Green, Joe Thomas, Trent Williams, ect. were slouches. By taking Clowney you're basically shoving one of your better starters out the door in 2 years, and probably throwing away your best chance to add a game changer at another position that you'll have in awhile.

There is going to be someone who turns out much better than we think right now, the Rams need to find that guy.
I have watched a little bit this year but not nearly enough to start making definitive statements about anything, however from what I have seen there are no guys like the above in this draft with the exceptions of QB who could challenge Clowney.

Realistically going back:

2007 - Adrian Peterson dropped because of his collarbone and the fact that one team in particular drafted for need rather than value (Arizona). Joe Thomas likely would have been drafted 2nd had the Raiders not taken Russell. But 2007 was by all means an anomalie because you look through the top of the draft and it is littered with possible future Hall of Famers. Both of these guys though were definitely viewed as blue chippers

The year Bradford and Suh went 1-2 a number of people, myself included actually preferred McCoy, and there are posts on this forum to show. That year I thought there were 3 elite level talents (Suh, McCoy and Berry). I will give that Trent Williams has become a great player though wasn't necessarily viewed as elite at the time.

What I am saying is everything is relative based on the year. Personally, I don't think this draft is littered with elite potential talent. I think Clowney is the top prospect by quite a distance, however you have to weigh up what is a very real risk factor with him. I think both Teddy and Johnny Manziel have great potential at the QB position.

After that, I think Jake Matthews can be a real good OT but not on the Joe Thomas level and I think Greg Robinson is just a slight notch below that. I think both Barr and Mack have high ceilings but neither are sure things and have very low floors.

After that I look at someone like Sammy Watkins. He is not close to the AJ Green/Julio Jones level for me but is above Blackmon. I actually rate him similarly to Crabtree as a prospect although they are different types of player. I wouldn't feel too happy about using the 2nd pick on him.

I do agree that by adding Clowney it may not be the best way to do it, but if they can't get out of the 2nd pick and aren't going QB I personally think Clowney is the way to go.

The names you mentioned above, and I don't want to use revionist history here, were elite level prospects with the exception of Trent Williams, who was a damn good prospect in his own right. People thought P. Peterson was the perfect CB prospect. If McCoy had have come out any other year he would have been the consensus top DT and possible #1 pick. AJ Green was considered just below Calvin as a WR prospect. If AP hadn't been hurt he would have been a consensus top 5 pick.

In this draft I don't see many transcedent stars. Now that is just my opinion, the Rams could think otherwise. I don't see passing on Clowney for someone like Matthews as a Calvin Johnson/Adrian Peterson type deal. I see it more as a Calvin Johnson/CJ Spiller type deal. You may get a really good player, but he isn't going to be near that level.
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