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Old 01-14-2014, 10:23 AM    (permalink
cmarq83
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There are going to be 255ish more picks to go. It is extremely unlikely that Clowney at the end of the day will be the best player from that class. There are always guys who turn weren't aren't viewed as blue chip prospects in the same vein as Clowney who turn out just as good, be it Watt, Revis, or Thomas. That guy in all likelihood exists in that class.

Even at the end of the day if we used your Clowney-Spiller comparison an upgrade from Long to Clowney wouldn't make the Rams any better than having both Spiller and Long. Jettisoning one of your best players in the middle of a rebuild because potentially someone will be better when you need impact players elsewhere doesn't make sense.

I get that Clowney is intriguing prospect, but at the end of the day at the #2 pick you have the pick of the litter. The need vs. value play doesn't come up the same way as it would at the end of the first because in all likelihood there are multiple HOF players and pro bowlers to choose from, you just need to pick the right one.
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Old 01-14-2014, 10:35 AM    (permalink
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I get the point of having Long + another guy is likely better than simply Clowney, however I don't necessarily agree with your argument that Clowney won't be the best player in the draft. Plus, there is nothing stopping the Rams from playing Long, Clowney and Quinn at the same time. Most defenses play a sub defense approx 60% of the time anyway.

Yes there are 250+ players in the draft, but logic dictates that the higher a player is picked the better chance he has to be a star. As things stand now Clowney has the best chance out of any player in the draft to be a Hall of Fame player. Will there be Hall of Famers from this class? Almost certainly. Will Clowney definitely be one? No, not all, however if you had to pick one player to be that guy I would be confident in saying most would pick Clowney IF they were satisfied with his mental makeup (something none of us can comment on)

My point is; in comparison to all the other players in this draft Clowney has the most talent and the biggest potential. Someone could get picked outside the top 10 and become JJ Watt, however if everyone knew what JJ Watt would become he wouldn't have fallen out of the top 10. I don't agree with the stance of passing on a transcendent talent because there is a chance that someone who is a lower ranked prospect may well turn out to be really good too. And, in my opinion the gulf in talent level between Clowney and the next best player is quite large. The only thing stopping Clowney from being the best prospect I can remember is people questioning his desire. If you interview him and are happy with his character then he is without a doubt the top prospect in this draft and it isn't really close at all IMO.
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:06 PM    (permalink
cmarq83
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I think Clowney has the edge right now because people expect him to test extraordinarily well. His production and tape don't necessarily dwarf then prospects around him. The Barr's, Watkin's, and Robinson's of the world could all of a sudden test really well, and all of a sudden are in the conversation. Von Miller was talked about as a potential mid-late round first at this time in his draft year, but killed his combine and ended up going 2nd.

The other prospects can only close the gap between now and then. I really don't see Clowney as being anywhere near the best non-QB prospect in awhile either. Quite frankly if Clowney did not enter the NCAA with the kind of hype that he did he wouldn't be where he is now with the production he had at SC.

Clowney has a distinct advantage now in terms of how he is viewed, but I doubt that will exist come draft day.
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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I think Clowney has the edge right now because people expect him to test extraordinarily well. His production and tape don't necessarily dwarf then prospects around him. The Barr's, Watkin's, and Robinson's of the world could all of a sudden test really well, and all of a sudden are in the conversation. Von Miller was talked about as a potential mid-late round first at this time in his draft year, but killed his combine and ended up going 2nd.

The other prospects can only close the gap between now and then. I really don't see Clowney as being anywhere near the best non-QB prospect in awhile either. Quite frankly if Clowney did not enter the NCAA with the kind of hype that he did he wouldn't be where he is now with the production he had at SC.

Clowney has a distinct advantage now in terms of how he is viewed, but I doubt that will exist come draft day.
Have you watched any of his Sophomore games? There is a reason for his hype that extends beyond just his measurables. The guy dominated the SEC last year and finished 6th in Heisman voting that year. He would not be talked about as the best player in this draft if he was being judged solely based on this year.
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Old 01-15-2014, 10:48 AM    (permalink
cmarq83
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Have you watched any of his Sophomore games? There is a reason for his hype that extends beyond just his measurables. The guy dominated the SEC last year and finished 6th in Heisman voting that year. He would not be talked about as the best player in this draft if he was being judged solely based on this year.
I actually did watch plenty of SC last year, probably more than any other team besides BC. Clowney was impressive, but so were a variety of other players who're top prospects in this class. It's confirmation bias. People were expecting Clowney to be good, and he was for 1 year. However, if you look at other prospects like Coples, Kiwi, Hardy and others, they were all penalized for declining production despite dominating the year before. I don't think that exists with Clowney because of his reputation before he got there.

It's inarguable that if he was some random 4 star recruit with his body of work he quite simply would not be discussed as one of the best D prospects in 10 years.
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Old 01-15-2014, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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Just chimed in to say anyone that's actually talking as if trading Quinn is a realistic or intelligent idea should automatically be ignored in this discussion.

10.5 sacks two years ago, 19 this past year. He's the best 4-3 pass rushing DE already, at 23 years old. The Rams will pay the man whatever the hell he wants and be happy with it. A first and a second isn't remotely close to fair value for him because those picks are historically more likely to be busts than good players(if you play the odds) and there's probably a more like 99% chance that they will be worse players then Robert Quinn.
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Old 01-15-2014, 11:50 AM    (permalink
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I actually did watch plenty of SC last year, probably more than any other team besides BC. Clowney was impressive, but so were a variety of other players who're top prospects in this class. It's confirmation bias. People were expecting Clowney to be good, and he was for 1 year. However, if you look at other prospects like Coples, Kiwi, Hardy and others, they were all penalized for declining production despite dominating the year before. I don't think that exists with Clowney because of his reputation before he got there.

It's inarguable that if he was some random 4 star recruit with his body of work he quite simply would not be discussed as one of the best D prospects in 10 years.
The reason people were expecting Clowney to be good was because of the ridiculous physical talent he possesses. That rare physical talent is what puts him ahead of guys who have had similar production in college as they don't have the same ceiling as Clowney. It's also the reason he was the #1 recruit in the nation and not some random 4 star guy.
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Old 01-15-2014, 02:54 PM    (permalink
cmarq83
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The reason people were expecting Clowney to be good was because of the ridiculous physical talent he possesses. That rare physical talent is what puts him ahead of guys who have had similar production in college as they don't have the same ceiling as Clowney. It's also the reason he was the #1 recruit in the nation and not some random 4 star guy.
Exactly, but there are plenty of freak athletes that aren't captured as a the #1 recruit in the nation. For example Mario Williams was a 4 star recruit. From here the other prospects can only close the gap, be it they test better than expected, or Clowney tests worse than expected. As it stands Clowney's body of work doesn't differentiate him from other top prospects, it's his perceived measurables. At this point having no idea what everybody will test at, I don't think we can conclude that he really is head and shoulders above everyone else.
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Old 01-16-2014, 11:46 AM    (permalink
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I think so I think he could play End in a 4-3 OLB in a 3-4
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Old 01-19-2014, 01:45 AM    (permalink
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He would never play end in a 43, he'd play the strongside backer in a hybrid (2gap/penetration)under front where he can utilize his skills. Essentially it's very similar to what you ask out of your 30 rush backers.


In today's nfl there is really not a lot off difference in football terms to the 2 fronts, more just media talk that don't understand really what's going on.
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Old 01-19-2014, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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I think he can play with his hand in the dirt just fine. I just think his athleticism probably has him at his best as a 3-4 OLB
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Old 01-20-2014, 09:30 AM    (permalink
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He would never play end in a 43, he'd play the strongside backer in a hybrid (2gap/penetration)under front where he can utilize his skills. Essentially it's very similar to what you ask out of your 30 rush backers.


In today's nfl there is really not a lot off difference in football terms to the 2 fronts, more just media talk that don't understand really what's going on.
Barr would never play SLB in a 4-3. He's a DE, period. Even Von Miller ends up playing most of his snaps at DE. Barr is valuable mostly for his pass rushing. You line him up over a LT and go at the QB every play.
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Old 01-23-2014, 08:56 PM    (permalink
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I see a lot of hate on barr on draft twitter. do ppl still think he is a top 10 pick
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