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Old 12-17-2013, 12:49 PM    (permalink
dregolll
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Default Better Prospect: Andrew Luck vs Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston seems to be the universal #1 overall pick heading into the 2015 NFL draft. He is already on record as the youngest Heisman trophy winner on record, so the star power and popularity is there. My question is who will have the highest grade between Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston, who in your eyes is the better prospect and why. Also, who would you start your franchise with? Itís Winston versus Luck!
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Old 12-17-2013, 01:01 PM    (permalink
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You know I came in to this thread with a decision in mind...

But I keep talking myself out of anything clear cut.

I put them on equal levels. Winston is definitely ahead of Luck at the same stage, where Luck was basically a game manager his RS Frosh year.

Luck has a quicker release, though Winston's arm is likely stronger. Winston is extremely accurate, particularly when he needs to be...but he does miss some throws at this stage. In the last two games he's missed more throws than he has all year. Both throw extremely well on the run, going to either side.
Size and athleticism are probably about even. Winston has already shown more ability to make big time downfield throws in tight windows. Though he has better talent around him to bail him out. I never thought this was an issue with Luck coming out, just a byproduct of the offense. Nevertheless it was a knock. Some will have an off the field question about Winston, whereas Luck basically had nothing. Luck also has the football pedigree. Winston will likely have more experience in big time games if you value that kind of thing.

I pick Winston because I'm a homer.
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Old 12-17-2013, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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As a prospect I'd take Luck solely on the basis that Winston has substantial character concerns. However, purely based on the results on the field I'd take Winston.

The amount of difficult vertical throws Jameis makes down the field is unmatched by anyone I can ever remember. He's so good already, and there is plenty of developmental low hanging fruit that can make him a lot better.
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Old 12-17-2013, 01:10 PM    (permalink
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I'd draft RS Freshman Jameis over Luck when he came out as a RS Jr.
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Old 12-17-2013, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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I'd be wary of QBs who play for big-time programs and powerhouse teams. QBs who come from national title teams in college are often a recipe for failure in the NFL.

The successful QB in the NFL is one who had to earn everything on his own in college - the QB who had to take a bad team and make it competitive almost entirely on his own.

A QB like Winston has so much talent around him and plays so often with a big lead due to FSU's elite defense that his stats and his successful plays are often a mirage. Not to mention - he is the king of the FSU program and feels incredibly entitled. He hasn't had to work for any of this success.

It's no coincidence that most of the successful NFL QBs come from either mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools (Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Jon Elway, Warren Moon, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc) or small schools in terms of their football programs (Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, etc) and often from teams that were not stacked with talent. And it's also no coincidence that QBs drafted from big programs who were surrounded by loads of talent (Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Danny Weurfal, Joey Harrington, Vinny Testaverde, etc) often fail in the NFL.
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Old 12-17-2013, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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Winston's arm is freakish. But he throws with incredible touch too. He's got more than just a fastball, and throws with the proper velocity to his WR based on what the route requires.

Luck has a solid arm, but Winston is on par with Kaepernick and Flacco for pure arm strength.

At similar stages in their college careers, Winston is light years ahead of Luck.

Physically Jameis Winston is the prototype for the position. However what's most exciting is his apparent dedication to his craft and willingness to get better and learn the nuances of his position.

I like the potential of Winston more than any QB who's entered the league in recent memory. More refined than Newton. Developmentally he's ahead of Luck(at similar stages).

It would be cool for a team like the Jags, Jets or Cleveland to land this kid.
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Old 12-17-2013, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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I'd be wary of QBs who play for big-time programs and powerhouse teams. QBs who come from national title teams in college are often a recipe for failure in the NFL.

The successful QB in the NFL is one who had to earn everything on his own in college - the QB who had to take a bad team and make it competitive almost entirely on his own.

A QB like Winston has so much talent around him and plays so often with a big lead due to FSU's elite defense that his stats and his successful plays are often a mirage. Not to mention - he is the king of the FSU program and feels incredibly entitled. He hasn't had to work for any of this success.

It's no coincidence that most of the successful NFL QBs come from either mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools (Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Jon Elway, Warren Moon, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc) or small schools in terms of their football programs (Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, etc) and often from teams that were not stacked with talent. And it's also no coincidence that QBs drafted from big programs who were surrounded by loads of talent (Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Danny Weurfal, Joey Harrington, Vinny Testaverde, etc) often fail in the NFL.


Peyton - Tennessee.
Brady - Michigan.
Marino - Pitt; they'd just come off a nat'l championship season a few years before he left for the draft. In the late '70s/early '80s Pitt was a football power in the East.

Football programs don't come any bigger.

FSU IMO nearly always has some of the best raw talent skill position players in the country.

Their issue has been not landing that special talent at QB to capitalize on the ability of those skill position players.

This is virtually the same squad EJ Manuel had last year, but this FSU team would beat that squad by 21-28 points.

Winston is for real. He's not the product of playing with superior talent around him.

It's hard, but you have to be able to isolate the player from the talent around him.

Winston was a 5-star recruit and Rivals top rated QB prospect.
He was elite before he got to FSU, and now he's looking like the best QB to ever come through that program.
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Old 12-17-2013, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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I'd be wary of QBs who play for big-time programs and powerhouse teams. QBs who come from national title teams in college are often a recipe for failure in the NFL.

The successful QB in the NFL is one who had to earn everything on his own in college - the QB who had to take a bad team and make it competitive almost entirely on his own.

A QB like Winston has so much talent around him and plays so often with a big lead due to FSU's elite defense that his stats and his successful plays are often a mirage. Not to mention - he is the king of the FSU program and feels incredibly entitled. He hasn't had to work for any of this success.

It's no coincidence that most of the successful NFL QBs come from either mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools (Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Jon Elway, Warren Moon, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc) or small schools in terms of their football programs (Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, etc) and often from teams that were not stacked with talent. And it's also no coincidence that QBs drafted from big programs who were surrounded by loads of talent (Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Danny Weurfal, Joey Harrington, Vinny Testaverde, etc) often fail in the NFL.
This is all a load of crap. You are really making a lot of conclusions on your own about him as a player and a person with zero evidence or reasoning.

You say "He is the king of the FSU program and feels incredibly entitled, He hasn't had to work for any of this success."

That's maybe the most ridiculous statement you could make.

First off, to make an assumption on how a player feels is simply wrong. Jameis shows absolutely zero evidence of being "entitled." He has become the king of FSU's program because he's been flat out amazing. He's lead a constantly underachieving team to an undefeated season and the NC game. This is the same FSU team that last year played down to its competition and blew a big lead against NC State. It's not like he's become the leader of this team and the face of this program by default...its because he's proven it with his character, work ethic, and play on the field. This is a team full of experienced veterans who all listen and follow Winston. Lamarcus Joyner talks about how much of a leader he is. Last year when he was redshirting...he was constantly up and down the sidelines trying to fire people up. He was not given the starting job by any means...the unreal hype didn't start until the spring game when he lit up the FSU 1st team defense. Sure he was a big recruit...but FSU has big recruits come in all the damn time. Big name QBs bust all the time, at that point there was nothing separating him from Xavier Lee.

Its incredibly stupid for you to just assume he hasn't had to work for any of his success. He didn't become the QB he is by accident...He runs the offense 10x better than EJ Manuel did as a 5th year senior. That's not some fluke. Its because he knows the offense, has an amazing arm, has a very high football IQ, makes adjustments, etc, etc.

FSU plays with a big lead because Winston gets them there. His stats are not a mirage...if anything they should be much better. Winston has only thrown 18 passes in the 4th quarter the entire season...He's basically sat out 1/5th of FSU's plays because of the leads.

While the point about QBs from big programs having mixed success is true...you could say that about every position. Some of the greatest WR's are from small schools, Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, etc, etc. That doesn't really mean crap. For QB the reason this might apply is because the trait that really makes QB's special is the ability to make other players better...a trait easier to see on lesser schools. There is absolutely no doubt Winston makes players better, jut watch the difference in the FSU offense from last year to this year. Theres no secret why FSU might have 3 1000 yards receivers and a 1000 yard rusher. Also LOL at you using Dan Marino and Peyton Manning to back up your point. To say QB's from big programs failed because they were made to look better is just lazy...those guys you listed failed for a number of reasons and many of them were never considered to be big time pro QBs.
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Old 12-17-2013, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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As a prospect I'd take Luck solely on the basis that Winston has substantial character concerns. However, purely based on the results on the field I'd take Winston.

The amount of difficult vertical throws Jameis makes down the field is unmatched by anyone I can ever remember. He's so good already, and there is plenty of developmental low hanging fruit that can make him a lot better.


Because you know the FACTS completely support this.....
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Old 12-17-2013, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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I'd be wary of QBs who play for big-time programs and powerhouse teams. QBs who come from national title teams in college are often a recipe for failure in the NFL.


Quote:
The successful QB in the NFL is one who had to earn everything on his own in college - the QB who had to take a bad team and make it competitive almost entirely on his own.

A QB like Winston has so much talent around him and plays so often with a big lead due to FSU's elite defense that his stats and his successful plays are often a mirage. Not to mention - he is the king of the FSU program and feels incredibly entitled. He hasn't had to work for any of this success.
This is literally the dumbest thing I've ever read about this kid, and that includes the comments from Patricia Carroll.

Quote:
It's no coincidence that most of the successful NFL QBs come from either mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools (Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Jon Elway, Warren Moon, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc) or small schools in terms of their football programs (Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, etc) and often from teams that were not stacked with talent. And it's also no coincidence that QBs drafted from big programs who were surrounded by loads of talent (Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Danny Weurfal, Joey Harrington, Vinny Testaverde, etc) often fail in the NFL.
So let me get this straight, early 80's Pittsburgh and 90's Tennessee were mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools, yet 2001 Oregon (not 2010+ Oregon mind you) was a big program with loads of talent? Have you ever watched a day of college football in your life?
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Old 12-17-2013, 03:08 PM    (permalink
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This is literally the dumbest thing I've ever read about this kid, and that includes the comments from Patricia Carroll.



So let me get this straight, early 80's Pittsburgh and 90's Tennessee were mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools, yet 2001 Oregon (not 2010+ Oregon mind you) was a big program with loads of talent? Have you ever watched a day of college football in your life?
Settle down there, partner. I think you're going a little overboard with the criticism.

I agree he overstated it a bit, but I get what he is saying. It's tougher to judge Winston because his team is more talented than every team he has ever played. It's like trying to decide who is a better Madden player when two guys are playing on different difficulty levels.

That being said, coming from a good program doesn't mean that a QB can't be successful.
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Old 12-17-2013, 03:15 PM    (permalink
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Since when is Tennessee not a football powerhouse? They've been down the past few years, but historically, particularly when Manning was there, they were very much one of the premier programs in the nation.
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Old 12-17-2013, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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Since when is Tennessee not a football powerhouse? They've been down the past few years, but historically, particularly when Manning was there, they were very much one of the premier programs in the nation.
Because narrative and stuff.
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Old 12-17-2013, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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Because you know the FACTS completely support this.....
There are no FACTS, just a couple of witness statements (Neither of which make Jameis sound like a saint). I never accused Jameis of doing anything that he is alleged to have done. However, if we're comparing the 2 as prospects, one has a clean rap sheet, and the other has another human being out there who feels like he raped them, to the point where there was a fairly substantial police investigation, then yes it is somewhat of a character concern.

If we're comparing 2 players who most were/are confident that they'll be franchise passers, I'd take the one who I'm more confident will keep his nose clean, and remain a franchise passer.

With that in mind I would absolutely take Winston 1st overall in 2015.
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Old 12-17-2013, 04:14 PM    (permalink
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Why don't we wait til Winston performs next year when teams have film , and how he handles the hype.
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Old 12-17-2013, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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There are no FACTS, just a couple of witness statements (Neither of which make Jameis sound like a saint). I never accused Jameis of doing anything that he is alleged to have done. However, if we're comparing the 2 as prospects, one has a clean rap sheet, and the other has another human being out there who feels like he raped them, to the point where there was a fairly substantial police investigation, then yes it is somewhat of a character concern.

If we're comparing 2 players who most were/are confident that they'll be franchise passers, I'd take the one who I'm more confident will keep his nose clean, and remain a franchise passer.

With that in mind I would absolutely take Winston 1st overall in 2015.
Well there are the facts that she claimed she was hit over the head, yet there was no evidence of that. She claimed she was drugged, yet no evidence to support that (test run multiple times), she claimed that she was blind drunk, BAC proves that to be a lie as well. She also claimed that she hadn't had sex in the previous 5 days, when DNA was found in her anus that would not have been there if over 5 days old. So she flat out lied about 4 big factors in this case, from there it is impossible to believe anything else she said or did.
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Old 12-17-2013, 04:22 PM    (permalink
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Well there are the facts that she claimed she was hit over the head, yet there was no evidence of that. She claimed she was drugged, yet no evidence to support that (test run multiple times), she claimed that she was blind drunk, BAC proves that to be a lie as well. She also claimed that she hadn't had sex in the previous 5 days, when DNA was found in her anus that would not have been there if over 5 days old. So she flat out lied about 4 big factors in this case, from there it is impossible to believe anything else she said or did.
You didn't read anything he wrote, did you?

Winston and Luck are both amazing prospects. I'd probably give Winston the edge just based on higher potential with his ability to throw the deep ball.
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Old 12-17-2013, 04:23 PM    (permalink
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You didn't read anything he wrote, did you?

Winston and Luck are both amazing prospects. I'd probably give Winston the edge just based on higher potential with his ability to throw the deep ball.
I did, he claimed no facts, I provided the facts in the case, namely the lies told by the "victim".
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Old 12-17-2013, 04:28 PM    (permalink
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There are no FACTS, just a couple of witness statements (Neither of which make Jameis sound like a saint). I never accused Jameis of doing anything that he is alleged to have done. However, if we're comparing the 2 as prospects, one has a clean rap sheet, and the other has another human being out there who feels like he raped them, to the point where there was a fairly substantial police investigation, then yes it is somewhat of a character concern.

If we're comparing 2 players who most were/are confident that they'll be franchise passers, I'd take the one who I'm more confident will keep his nose clean, and remain a franchise passer.

With that in mind I would absolutely take Winston 1st overall in 2015.
That's the main part I was referring to.
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Old 12-17-2013, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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I don't have a problem if the sexual investigation is a knock. I mean its normal for teams to consider that and do their own research. And at this time, to not consider it would be kinda silly. But I don't think it would count as substantial concerns at this point, considering he was not even charged (much less convicted) and there is absolutely nothing else in his background to suggest he has character issues.

I do have a problem with the completely off base claims that he doesn't have to work hard and he has an entitled attitude...
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Old 12-17-2013, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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Until I see Winston perform as a pro, I refuse to rate him the equal of Luck, college performance doesn't make you a sure thing.

As a prospect, I'd put him right there with Luck, no better, no worse. One good year doesn't get you placed ahead of Luck, let's see how he continues to improve or fall back as a junior before you can say he might be better than Luck. I mean how many top programs did Winston play against this season, one or two at the most, that is hardly a sample size I would consider meaningful. Heck, he hasn't even played in a Bowl game against Auburn just yet. Let's see how he handles some real pressure before anointing him.

I really hope he is as good as a pro as Luck because it will mean some other pro team will be a serious SB contender in the future.
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Old 12-17-2013, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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There are no FACTS, just a couple of witness statements (Neither of which make Jameis sound like a saint). I never accused Jameis of doing anything that he is alleged to have done. However, if we're comparing the 2 as prospects, one has a clean rap sheet, and the other has another human being out there who feels like he raped them, to the point where there was a fairly substantial police investigation, then yes it is somewhat of a character concern.

If we're comparing 2 players who most were/are confident that they'll be franchise passers, I'd take the one who I'm more confident will keep his nose clean, and remain a franchise passer.

With that in mind I would absolutely take Winston 1st overall in 2015.
Here's some facts; two semen samples were found in this girl's panties. Obviously one belonged to Jameis, but the victim refused(!!!) to tell authorities to whom the 2nd sample belonged. Turns out the 2nd deposit came from the victim's BF.

I don't know exactly what happened, but I have a hard time believing Jameis forced himself on this girl.

But I do know sometimes crazy chicks will make up wild accusations when they've been caught cheating.

Even her attorney is an oddball. She made this inference her client was knocked out with Rohipnol, yet somehow she was quite certain Jameis was her rapist. There was no evidence the girl was given Rohipnol.


Remember, the NFL is a business foremost.
Winston was accused, but never charged. That's really all most NFL GMs care about, unless you believe the kid is a closet serial rapist.
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Old 12-17-2013, 07:06 PM    (permalink
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Until I see Winston perform as a pro, I refuse to rate him the equal of Luck, college performance doesn't make you a sure thing.

As a prospect, I'd put him right there with Luck, no better, no worse. One good year doesn't get you placed ahead of Luck, let's see how he continues to improve or fall back as a junior before you can say he might be better than Luck. I mean how many top programs did Winston play against this season, one or two at the most, that is hardly a sample size I would consider meaningful. Heck, he hasn't even played in a Bowl game against Auburn just yet. Let's see how he handles some real pressure before anointing him.

I really hope he is as good as a pro as Luck because it will mean some other pro team will be a serious SB contender in the future.

Winston is better than Luck was as a RS freshman, and his arm is much better with similar accuracy.

FSU beat 7 bowl teams this past season. Their schedule is their schedule and the Seminoles rolled everyone they played, in no small part because of Jameis Winston.

Luck isn't exactly ripping it up in the NFL, and as pro prospects at this early point in their college careers(RS freshman), Winston is better than Luck.
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Old 12-17-2013, 07:13 PM    (permalink
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Why don't we wait til Winston performs next year when teams have film , and how he handles the hype.
I agree with this. Manziel in his follow up year was solid, but not quite the same JFF that took the world by storm.

Perhaps Jameis might have a bit more trouble with teams that now know their offense and can plan for it, and a little less of a talent gap from people coming in/growing up/leaving.
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Old 12-17-2013, 07:22 PM    (permalink
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I'd be wary of QBs who play for big-time programs and powerhouse teams. QBs who come from national title teams in college are often a recipe for failure in the NFL.

The successful QB in the NFL is one who had to earn everything on his own in college - the QB who had to take a bad team and make it competitive almost entirely on his own.

A QB like Winston has so much talent around him and plays so often with a big lead due to FSU's elite defense that his stats and his successful plays are often a mirage. Not to mention - he is the king of the FSU program and feels incredibly entitled. He hasn't had to work for any of this success.

It's no coincidence that most of the successful NFL QBs come from either mid-sized, non-football-powerhouse schools (Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Jon Elway, Warren Moon, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, etc) or small schools in terms of their football programs (Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, etc) and often from teams that were not stacked with talent. And it's also no coincidence that QBs drafted from big programs who were surrounded by loads of talent (Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Danny Weurfal, Joey Harrington, Vinny Testaverde, etc) often fail in the NFL.
BYU, which won a national championship in football, Tennessee, which has one of the biggest stadiums in the country, Pitt, which was consistently a top five team when Marino was there and won a national championship in 76 are small time schools? Your point doesn't hold water.

How do you know Winston feels entitled and hasn't had to work for any of his success?

I'm convinced this guy is trolling.
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