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Old 05-04-2014, 06:16 PM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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Default Will Timmy Jernigan Be a 1st Round Pick?

It seems like Florida St. nose tackle Timmy Jernigan is one of the most polarizing prospects in the class; to me, that began earlier in the process, when everyone was calling him a three-technique who could get after the passer. I don't think that's true; he's a pure 4-3 nose tackle in the same mold as guys like Jonathan Babineaux who might be able to help you out in defending the run, but aren't going to get much penetration into the backfield (Babineaux went #59 overall back in 2005 and started 2013 at nose tackle for the Falcons.)

When I watch Jernigan, I see someone who moves pretty quickly, anchors pretty well, and has a little bit of range to defend the run, but he seems to get off the snap a bit slowly, being one of the last Seminoles to react to the snap, which basically prevents him from offering much as a rusher. His build is a pretty sloppy one as well, and you can see the effect that has on his stamina. This isn't Brodrick Bunkley showing up at the weigh-in looking like a tank, it's a pear-shaped guy inexplicably wearing a belly shirt.

You can probably cross off any 3-4 team as one that would be potentially interested in bringing Jernigan in, which to me leaves a team like Dallas as maybe the only candidate to draft him in the first round, where he would ostensibly play nose tackle opposite Henry Melton. However, I'm thinking that if you're picking at sixteen and considering a guy who no one else is going to draft in the first round, you're probably reaching and should look elsewhere. What does everyone else think? Is Jernigan going in the first round this week?
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Old 05-04-2014, 06:23 PM    (permalink
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I don't love Jernigan. Like you said, he doesn't offer a ton as a pass rusher and I don't know how he'll hold up as a nose tackle. I think he'll go to a team who trades back. Maybe Dallas trades back to the 28-30 range and takes him. Or a team who trades out of the first will take him early in the 2nd. It also wouldn't shock me to see Seattle draft him.
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Old 05-04-2014, 06:27 PM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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I could see Dallas trading down and getting him, but I think they'll be able to get a good value and fit at #16, whether that's Zack Martin, Aaron Donald, Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier, Calvin Pryor, whatever. At least one of those guys should be around.
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Old 05-04-2014, 07:20 PM    (permalink
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Will Jernigan be a first rounder? If I had to bet on it, I would lean towards no. Should he be a first rounder? I think so. He has the ability to offer more as a pass rusher; in the Seminoles' defense his responsibility wasn't to collapse the pocket on a routine basis. I like his ability to close on ball carriers and he is a strong player in the middle who displays terrific hand usage.
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Old 05-04-2014, 07:47 PM    (permalink
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I remember how, shortly after the National Championship, it was rare to read a post on here that felt Aaron Donald was better than Jernigan.
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Old 05-04-2014, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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He reminds me of shorter Randy Starks - but he's better than Starks was entering the league. I agree that he's a bad fit for a 3-4 team.

I have him as the 25th best player.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:23 PM    (permalink
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He probably falls out into the early 2nd round because he does not offer the pass rush of physical upside of guys like Tuitt or Hageman.

Should he? No he is a lunch pale fighter that could have an very good career at a NT for a 4-3 team or have him put on 10lbs and he could play in a 3-4.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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He doesn't really offer much to me. He's not built to be a 43 NT. He's not a 34 DE. He's not enough of a pass rusher to play 43 UT. He's not worth a first round pick.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:29 PM    (permalink
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If he falls out of the 1st round, he is going to out-perform his rookie contract IMO.
This guy is underrated right now it seems... but let's see what really happens later this week when it's REAL GMs making draft picks and not all us armchair QBs making mock picks.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:32 PM    (permalink
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If he falls out of the 1st round, he is going to out-perform his rookie contract IMO.
This guy is underrated right now it seems... but let's see what really happens later this week when it's REAL GMs making draft picks and not all us armchair QBs making mock picks.
Solid points, seems out of favour right now, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:42 PM    (permalink
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He doesn't really offer much to me. He's not built to be a 43 NT. He's not a 34 DE. He's not enough of a pass rusher to play 43 UT. He's not worth a first round pick.
What does a 4-3 NT look like?

I think he compares to Tank Johnson or Brandon Mebane he will be a very good run defender who offers enough movement skills that he will not be a liability against the pass.

I see a 50 tackle, 3-5 sack guy.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:57 PM    (permalink
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What does a 4-3 NT look like?

I think he compares to Tank Johnson or Brandon Mebane he will be a very good run defender who offers enough movement skills that he will not be a liability against the pass.

I see a 50 tackle, 3-5 sack guy.
Eh, maybe. I'd just be concerned his frame is maxed.
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Old 05-05-2014, 07:35 AM    (permalink
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Eh, maybe. I'd just be concerned his frame is maxed.
What gives you the impression that his frame may be maxed out?
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Old 05-05-2014, 08:19 AM    (permalink
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I think he can play 3tech in a two gap system or NT in a system like ours that prefers smaller attacking lineman. He plays bigger then his size and has heavy violent hands to keep lineman off of his body. Has the ability to shift gears and explode through the crease when there is open field between himself and the target. Imo, his role played the biggest factor in the lack of sack production and his best football is ahead of him.

I do agree that there is a good chance that he slides out of the first round because he isn't everyones favorite flavor in terms of scheme fit. Still needs some polish in terms of pure pass rush moves but I think that he has untapped potential in that department. Someone is going to get a very good player who is a day one contributor with room to grow. His floor is Brodrick Bunkley but could potentially turn out to be a Booker McFarland type of player in the right scheme.
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Old 05-05-2014, 08:46 AM    (permalink
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I think he can play 3tech in a two gap system or NT in a system like ours that prefers smaller attacking lineman. He plays bigger then his size and has heavy violent hands to keep lineman off of his body. Has the ability to shift gears and explode through the crease when there is open field between himself and the target. Imo, his role played the biggest factor in the lack of sack production and his best football is ahead of him.

I do agree that there is a good chance that he slides out of the first round because he isn't everyones favorite flavor in terms of scheme fit. Still needs some polish in terms of pure pass rush moves but I think that he has untapped potential in that department. Someone is going to get a very good player who is a day one contributor with room to grow. His floor is Brodrick Bunkley but could potentially turn out to be a Booker McFarland type of player in the right scheme.
I'd be really surprised if he ended up being as good as Bunkley, who was ten times stronger than Jernigan coming out. Bunkley recorded 25 TFL, nine sacks, and 15 hurries in 2005, then showed up at the Combine looking like a tank and hoisted up 44 reps on the bench. Jernigan looks like he's never lifted weights in his life, and his entire career's production is nowhere near even that one season of Bunkley's.
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Old 05-05-2014, 09:01 AM    (permalink
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I'd be really surprised if he ended up being as good as Bunkley, who was ten times stronger than Jernigan coming out. Bunkley recorded 25 TFL, nine sacks, and 15 hurries in 2005, then showed up at the Combine looking like a tank and hoisted up 44 reps on the bench. Jernigan looks like he's never lifted weights in his life, and his entire career's production is nowhere near even that one season of Bunkley's.
Bunk was a monster in college and a work out warrior, has been a pretty good 4-3 NT in the NFL but nothing spectacular. I wasn't comparing them as prospects but was speaking in terms of NFL projection. Jernigan might not look like he is cut from stone but it is hard to argue his ability to combat multiple blockers. His game is based more on his ability to land punches then pure anchor but all in all I think his game could round out similar.
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Old 05-05-2014, 09:05 AM    (permalink
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I'd be really surprised if he ended up being as good as Bunkley, who was ten times stronger than Jernigan coming out. Bunkley recorded 25 TFL, nine sacks, and 15 hurries in 2005, then showed up at the Combine looking like a tank and hoisted up 44 reps on the bench. Jernigan looks like he's never lifted weights in his life, and his entire career's production is nowhere near even that one season of Bunkley's.
He was a high level power lifter in HS actually. There is also a vast difference in scheme between what FSU did in 2004 and what FSU did in 2013.
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Old 05-05-2014, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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A Randy Starks type sounds pretty right. That's a pretty good player, but potentially not enough upside to make a team jump on him. Pats and Seattle are good fits for him at the end of the 1st though.

I have Donald and Tuitt ahead of him, Hageman about equal.
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Old 05-05-2014, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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When I watch Jernigan, I see someone who moves pretty quickly, anchors pretty well, and has a little bit of range to defend the run, but he seems to get off the snap a bit slowly, being one of the last Seminoles to react to the snap, which basically prevents him from offering much as a rusher. His build is a pretty sloppy one as well, and you can see the effect that has on his stamina. This isn't Brodrick Bunkley showing up at the weigh-in looking like a tank, it's a pear-shaped guy inexplicably wearing a belly shirt.

You can probably cross off any 3-4 team as one that would be potentially interested in bringing Jernigan in, which to me leaves a team like Dallas as maybe the only candidate to draft him in the first round, where he would ostensibly play nose tackle opposite Henry Melton. However, I'm thinking that if you're picking at sixteen and considering a guy who no one else is going to draft in the first round, you're probably reaching and should look elsewhere. What does everyone else think? Is Jernigan going in the first round this week?
Watch his head on those plays, he seems slow off the ball, but when you look a second or third time, you realize he's reading the play and reacting to where he needs to be, leading to him seldom being out of position to make a play when need be. For the more "explosive" players, they can react more quickly but immediately get taken out of the play by going to the wrong spot, opening up a counter or screen for big yards.

He can also definitely play NG in a 3-4 defense, he was an All American doing it last year and has the frame to go another 30+ lbs before he's close to maxed out.

Any team drafting another DT except Aaron Donald over him is wasting a draft pick.
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Old 05-05-2014, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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My gut feeling is early second round for him.
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Old 05-05-2014, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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Looks like he failed a drug test at the Combine so the answer is no, he will not be a first round pick.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 05-05-2014, 05:49 PM    (permalink
SunTzu_22
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Also posted this in the rumours thread, but apparently Timmy failed a drug test at the Combine:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...uting-combine/
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Old 05-05-2014, 05:52 PM    (permalink
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Looks like he failed a drug test at the Combine so the answer is no, he will not be a first round pick.
Or second either.
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Old 05-05-2014, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Looks like he failed a drug test at the Combine so the answer is no, he will not be a first round pick.
Yeah, this probably explains his rapid drop on mocks on NFL.com.
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Old 05-05-2014, 11:35 PM    (permalink
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I can't believe this thread has some people talking about Jernigan not being strong enough.

wuuuuuuuuttttttt

Dude is a rock solid anchor.
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