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Old 02-10-2014, 06:46 PM    (permalink
E_Bird
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Default 1st RD Mock Numero Uno

1. Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina

For most of the season, Ive argued that Manziel should go to the first team that needs a QB; however, Clowney is a Lawrence Taylor/Reggie White/Bruce Smith caliber prospect. If the Texans pair him with Watt (arguably the best defensive player in the NFL), they have a chance to construct a young D that rivals the Seahawks and 49ers. I think theyd be justified in drafting Clowney, Manziel, or Bridgewater, but I think this move sets Houston on the most prudent path.

2. St. Louis Rams Greg Robinson OT Auburn

I think you can argue that the Rams should consider moving on from Bradford, but they wont. The Rams found their RB in Zac Stacy, and hes helped the to establish the offensive identity Fisher wants. You can make a case for Sammy Watkins here, but Austin and Bailey are very good. Robinson is the best run blocking OT Ive seen at the college level. Hes a perfect fit for what theyre trying to establish on offense.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M

I expect Gust Bradley to establish a very good D within the next couple of seasons, and I expect him to try to replicate an offense that compliments that defense much like the system they have in Seattle. Manziel has the skillset to extend drives by converting 3rd downs, and hes the best QB in the draft at connecting on deep passes. They still need to facilitate the running game, but this is a great fit for both parties.

4. Cleveland Browns Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville

The Browns miss out on Manziel, but they get Bridgewater. Bridgewater compares favorably to Matt Ryan; Bridgewater has more upside. I rate Bridgewater higher than most of the #1 QBs in recent seasons (Newton and Luck being the exceptions).

5. Oakland Raiders Sammy Watkins WR Clemson

Oakland still needs a QB, but if Im them, Im not passing up a player like Watkins for a guy with as many concerns as Bortles. Denarius Moore has struggled to stay healthy, but if he can, hed be a high-end 2nd option. This is a case of Watkins being too good to pass as much as need, but it does fill a need.

6. Atlanta Falcons Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M

As Bridgewater was the preseason #1 QB and would be the #1 QB in most drafts, Matthews was the #1 OT and would be the #1 OT in most drafts. His pass pro is near flawless (perfect for an Atlanta team that wants to utilize the talents of Jones and White).

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Khalil Mack DE/OLB Buffalo

Tampa Bay is close to having a very good D. McCoy and David should kill it for Smith. Mack is an ideal candidate for SOLB on base downs, and he can kick down to DE for passing situations. Outstanding COD and balance.

8. Minnesota Vikings Blake Bortles QB UCF

Bortles has his concerns, but given the talent at their other positions of need, this is as good a spot as any to go QB, and Bortles does bring a lot to the table. I see the Big Ben comparisons much more than the Andrew Luck comparisons. Not the most precise QB in the world, but he makes plays, and he has the size and athleticism to excel. Slight but warranted reach here.

9. Buffalo Bills Mike Evans WR Texas A&M

The Bills would ideally go D here, but Im not liking the DEs or CBs at this point. You can make a case for Mosley, but I think you give your 2nd year QB a weapon that compliments his other WRs. In Evans, you get an extremely physical WR with a big frame. Hes hard to press, and he uses his body well. Brandon Marshall would be my pro comparison.

10. Detroit Lions Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU

The Lions need help at DE, LB, and in the secondary. Van Noy is a play maker. Hes scored a TD in every season at BYU (two in 2013). In his last three seasons, he has seven interceptions (at least two interceptions in each of those seasons). He has 11 forced fumbles in four seasons (none in his senior season but six during his junior season). Since his sophomore season, he has posted TFL totals of 15, 22, and 17.5. He also had 13 sacks as a junior, and he blocked three kicks during his time at BYU.

11. Tennessee Titans Anthony Barr OLB UCLA

I have mixed feelings on Barr, but I think hell be a good fit for a Ray Horton D. Should be a very productive 3-4 OLB, and I see a significant drop off after Barr. 20+ TFL in each of the last two seasons.

12. New York Giants Taylor Lewan OT Michigan

The Giants need help at OT. Thats no secret. Lewan didnt allow a sack during his Senior season, and I view him as underrated as an athlete and as a run blocker.

13. St. Louis Rams Jimmie Ward FS Northern Illinois

The Rams need to get serious about their secondary, and Ward is the most sound FS prospect since Earl Thomas. His angles are perfect; he can cover WRs (some said better than any of the CBs on the North Squad during the Senior Bowl); hes a sure tackler; and he excels in single-high looks. This is much higher than most mocks will have him, but if you look at the criticisms, they all boil down to size. Hes the closest thing to Earl Thomas since Earl Thomas, and there isnt a more valuable non-QB in the NFL than ET.

14. Chicago Bears Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh

The Geno Atkins comparisons are legit. If you need a 3-technique, Donald is the terror you want.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers Allen Robinson WR Penn State

I see Robinson as perfect for Pittsburgh. His size and his ability to high point the ball make him a legitimate RZ threat, but Robinsons YAC ability is perfectly suited for Haleys offense. Maybe the best YAC WR in this class save for Watkins.

16. Baltimore Ravens HaSean Clinton-Dix S Alabama

Baltimore would like to address O-line here, but I dont like the value available, and Dix and Elam would give them one of the most physical safety tandems in the league.

17. Dallas Cowboys Timmy Jernigan DT Florida State

Dallas needs help all over the defensive side of the ball. Jernigan isnt as disruptive as Donald, but hes plenty disruptive, and hes very stout for a DT under 300 lbs. Had a strong game against a great Auburn running attack.

18. New York Jets Marqise Lee WR USC

The Jets WR unit is as bad as any in the NFL. Before a bad junior season, Marqise Lee was seen by most as an even better prospect than Sammy Watkins. Hes not blazing fast, but he looks like the fastest guy on the field, and his COD is up there with the best. Concerns about his personality and work ethic drop him some, but hes too talented for a team as WR needy as the Jets to pass.

19. Miami Dolphins Jeremy Hill RB LSU

Jeremy Hill is a top-10 talent. He runs with remarkable burst especially for a guy who weighs 230. Pad level, vision, quick feet, and physicality are all pluses. Hes the only player in SEC history to average 6.9 YPC. Hes a guy like Lynch or Peterson who demands extra defenders in the box, because you cant expect to tackle him with one guy. Hell also take it to the house. I expect his 40 to be right around 4.5 flat. Miami needs to improve their pass protection, but even more, they need to establish a running game. Also, bypassing Hill here would mean taking a lesser prospect.

20. Arizona Cardinals Eric Ebron TE North Carolina

The Cardinals are in a situation similar to Miami. They can use O-line help, but their offense can also use a dynamic threat at TE, and Ebron is too good to pass even if its a lesser need.

21. Green Bay Packers Calvin Pryor S Louisville

Green Bays offense is good enough to compete with anyone. Their D is littered with liabilities. Pryor can play either safety position. He hits hard and has good range and ball skills. Doesnt always react as quick as youd like, and his angles are solid but not on par with a guy like Ward. But the Packers would welcome his playmaking and physicality.

22. Philadelphia Eagles Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State

Another team that needs some help in the secondary, the Eagles might be unhappy to see the top three safeties off the board, but they get the best CB prospect. Gilbert has good size and length, and hes a fluid athlete. Can play press or off. His intensity can lapse at times, but he goes before Dennard because of physical tools.

23. Kansas City Chiefs Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State

Speaking of Dennard, the Chiefs have a turnstile at CB, and they like to blitz. Dennard is used to playing press coverage, which should suit KCs demands. Dennard was the best college CB last season, but lack of upside sees him take a slight hit and fall to #2 CB.

24. Cincinnati Bengals C. J Mosley LB Alabama

Might seem like Mosley is going to low, but I think hes been somewhat overrated. Hes outstanding in coverage, and he can fly to the ball, but hes not a guy who will excel taking on O-linemen or big TEs. The Bengals outstanding D-line, coupled with an extremely physical Burfict, should free up Mosley to do what he does best. Obviously, they would like secondary help. But the Ss and CBs left dont offer proper value.

25. San Diego Chargers Antonio Richardson LT Tennessee

The Chargers set their line for the next 10 years pairing the big, physical Fluker with the big, physical Tiny Richardson. Tiny is an underrated pass blocker, and hed give SD two ways to run to strength (with Fluker on the other side). Fits what McCoy is implementing in SD.

26. Cleveland Browns Jarvis Landry WR LSU

Cleveland has its QB of the future. The next step is establishing a running game, but there arent any RBs here that separate from the pack, so they wait for RD 2 or RD 3. They do add a WR who is a QBs best friend and who perfectly complements Josh Gordon. Gordon is one of the best big-play WRs in the league (none of the top WRs had a better yards per target). Landry can beat you deep, but he excels doing the dirty work. Making tough catches to move the chains, making key blocks. My favorite WR in the draft.

27. New Orleans Saints Louis Nix NT Notre Dame

The Saints much-improved D gets another shot in the arm. Their pass D was much better than their run D in 2013 (2nd compared to 19th). Nix could be a pick that takes them to that next level the way the Carolina DTs did this season. They have to account for teams like Carolina, SF, and Seattle, who all love to run the ball.

28. Carolina Panthers Donte Moncrief WR Mississippi

Speaking of Carolina, get Cam some weapons. Moncrief should see his stock rise in the coming months. Hes too talented to ignore. Can beat you deep, can beat you with RAC, can go up and take the ball away from the defender. His physical style is a great fit for Carolina.

29. New England Patriots RaShede Hageman DT Minnesota

Hageman might be the most talented DT in the class. He can play in multiple fronts, and he has outstanding burst and length. Inconsistent motor is the major knock, and New England believes that they can positively influence this talent. Not to mention, they need help at DT.

30. San Francisco 49ers Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU

SF gets a deep threat to pair with Crabtree. This pairing should remind some of Michael Irvin and Alvin Harper. Kaepernick has the arm to test any area of the field, and with the attention that Crabtree and Davis require, Beckham should cause Ds headaches. Id compare him to a stronger , longer Desean Jackson.

31. Denver Broncos Kony Ealy DE Missouri

Ealy gives Denver s pass rush some help. Millers coming back, but apart from him, they have guys who are long in the tooth or just adequate on the edge. They know the importance of getting after the QB, or they should (after the SB).

32. Seattle Seahawks Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama

Kouandjio is overrated by many. Based on performance, hes not a 1st RD pick. Based on talent, hes the 2nd best OT in the class (more talented than Matthews), and who develops players better than Seattle? Perfect storm for Seattle. If they can get him to play to his talent, they significantly improved their line.
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Old 02-10-2014, 06:55 PM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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Nice but I'd say there is literally no way Van Noy goes that high. Also, I think Ebron is not an ideal pick for Arizona in terms of spending there first round pick.
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Old 02-10-2014, 07:02 PM    (permalink
E_Bird
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Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
Nice but I'd say there is literally no way Van Noy goes that high. Also, I think Ebron is not an ideal pick for Arizona in terms of spending there first round pick.
He's not ideal, but given their needs an the available talent at those needs, if I were them, I'd look toward a BPA kind of scenario, and Ebron is among them.
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Old 02-10-2014, 07:10 PM    (permalink
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Manziel over Bridgewater for the Jags? GTFOH.
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Old 02-10-2014, 07:16 PM    (permalink
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Nice but Wr's typically tend to drop on draft day. With this being a very deep draft at the position I can't see anywhere near 7 going in the first round.
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Old 02-10-2014, 07:27 PM    (permalink
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Nice but Wr's typically tend to drop on draft day. With this being a very deep draft at the position I can't see anywhere near 7 going in the first round.
I don't think that many will go in the 1st. I should have prefaced the post by saying that this is how I'd draft for each team - rather than what I think will happen. I think this drafts top 10 (or so) WR's are better than the top 10 from any draft in recent memory, so this reflects that.
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Old 02-10-2014, 07:28 PM    (permalink
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Manziel over Bridgewater for the Jags? GTFOH.
Not a knock on Bridgewater.
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Old 02-10-2014, 07:36 PM    (permalink
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Van Noy #10 overall was tough to look at, interesting mock though, good job.
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Old 02-10-2014, 08:15 PM    (permalink
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Hey, thanks.

I had a feeling the Van Noy pick would get sideways looks. Of the LB's who can also rush the passer (Mack, Barr, Van Noy), I thik Van Noy is easily the best in space. Think his stock fell, because he didn't rush the passer as often in 2013. But I definitely appreciate that it's an atypical pick.
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Old 02-10-2014, 08:30 PM    (permalink
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Not a very good Ravens pick in my opinion. I'm not a fan of Clinton-Dix but even if I was I don't think they're taking a safety with a high pick. Not after spending a first on Elam last season. They probably don't want two young players at both those spots anyways. Free safety is definitely a need but that's something I fully expect to be addressed with a free agent (probably somebody who gets cut).
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Old 02-10-2014, 09:36 PM    (permalink
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Why do people keep wishing Manziel on us???? What have we done?????

Tired of mediocrity, if Bridgewater and Manziel are both on the board at the time of our selection, Dave will sprint to podium to announce Bridgewater as our pick.
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Old 02-10-2014, 09:37 PM    (permalink
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I don't even think Manziel is a 1st round talent let alone a top 3 pick.
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Old 02-10-2014, 09:38 PM    (permalink
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The Saints drafted their NT already in John Jenkins, who played very well.... NT is near the bottom of our needs.
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Old 02-10-2014, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Jeremy Hill a top 10 talent? Bold.

Fine for the Browns.
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Old 02-10-2014, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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I would actually love Van Noy to Detroit.... If we traded down 15 or so spots.
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Old 02-11-2014, 02:04 AM    (permalink
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Give the Jets Ebron over Lee though I am happy you gave us a WR.
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Old 02-11-2014, 02:41 AM    (permalink
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I would be quite livid if the Chiefs passed on Hageman and especially Ealy for Dennard. Not saying I don't like Dennard, I do, but the Chiefs corners actually looked pretty good when the pass rush was there. When the pass rush disappeared is when the corners started looking bad.
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Old 02-11-2014, 08:44 AM    (permalink
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Not a very good Ravens pick in my opinion. I'm not a fan of Clinton-Dix but even if I was I don't think they're taking a safety with a high pick. Not after spending a first on Elam last season. They probably don't want two young players at both those spots anyways. Free safety is definitely a need but that's something I fully expect to be addressed with a free agent (probably somebody who gets cut).
Baltimore could go WR or TE, but I think they should focus on bringing that D back up to a high level. I wouldn't strongly consider any of the remaining OT's at that spot.
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Old 02-11-2014, 09:51 AM    (permalink
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9. Buffalo Bills Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
The Bills would ideally go D here,

10. Detroit Lions Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU
Van Noy is a play maker.

19. Miami Dolphins Jeremy Hill RB LSU
Jeremy Hill is a top-10 talent. He runs with remarkable burst especially for a guy who weighs 230. Pad level, vision, quick feet, and physicality are all pluses. Hes the only player in SEC history to average 6.9 YPC. Hes a guy like Lynch or Peterson who demands extra defenders in the box, because you cant expect to tackle him with one guy. Hell also take it to the house. I expect his 40 to be right around 4.5 flat. 2

26. Cleveland Browns Jarvis Landry WR LSU
Landry can beat you deep, but he excels doing the dirty work. Making tough catches to move the chains, making key blocks. My favorite WR in the draft.

28. Carolina Panthers Donte Moncrief WR Mississippi
Moncrief should see his stock rise in the coming months. Hes too talented to ignore. Can beat you deep, can beat you with RAC, can go up and take the ball away from the defender. His physical style is a great fit for Carolina.
First of all, this may have been the most unique, enjoyable mock I have seen so far, I enjoyed it on several fronts.

For the Bills, the pick makes sense for the very reason's you state and then some. I do think there are better players available (Barr, Van Noy and Ebron IMO) and I do think after listening to Marrone, they will go BPA available, in a recent press conference he stated so and that they are not at the point where they can go based on need early in the draft. If Evans is the BPA they will take him though. For what ever thats worth.

Van Noy IMO is the most under rated player in the draft, I have him as a fringe top 10 talent, and feel like I am talking myself out of the top 10 with him. Regardless, he'll be a steal where ever he goes. Buffalo at 9 would be fine with me. Great little analysis on him, I see it too.

Jeremy Hill, has some fantastic qualities, top 10 is a little too rich for my blood at this point, I have not seen the "anger running" or intentional initiation of contact like Lynch or Peterson, but I have watched him, his whole career at LSU and he does have the potetial, while doing so at times. I currently have him as my #1 back in the draft after doing my 2nd takes on RB's yesterday and a 1st round grade. He does have long speed but I think he slows down after about 30/40 yards, I dont think he has the stamina of a Peterson to take it all the way consistantly in that regard, but a 4.5 would open eyes for sure. I am anticipating 4.6ish myself.

Jarvis Landry - Great analysis there as well IMO, about spot on with my assesment. If he had a better release in particular when it comes to beating the jam, I think he'd be a first round lock. Even in trying not to be a LSU homer, he's my favorite as well with a close call coming Moncrief's way.

Speaking of the devil. Great little write up on Moncrief as well. Could not agree more. I was high one him coming into the season, and I think he'll rise in the upcoming months as well. I am really excited to see him in the pre-draft process.

Anyway, nice job!! +rep
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Old 02-11-2014, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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I love the Eagles pick...


...However, reading your description about Marqise Lee makes me wonder if you know anything about him.

Marqise Lee is one of the hardest working guys on the field, and unbelievable teammate and has been a captain at USC for the past 2 seasons. To say his personality may turn teams off is just not true. He DOES drop passes due to concentration, but he did not have a "bad" season by any means...he was just dinged up...when he was healthy, he was unstoppable and vintage Marqise.

This guy is a smaller version of Terrell Owens, its amazing how similar they are when they play...and he will make someone very happy for a long time, because he doesn't bring the baggage.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 02-11-2014, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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Baltimore could go WR or TE, but I think they should focus on bringing that D back up to a high level. I wouldn't strongly consider any of the remaining OT's at that spot.
Neither would I, but offensive tackle might not be what they need anyways. There's a good chance that Osemele doesn't fit at left guard in Kubiak's system so he could get moved back to right tackle leaving them with needs at left guard and center (after Monroe gets re-signed).

The defense does have some needs, but it's not anywhere close to a priority over the offense. Baltimore's defense was actually quite a bit better than the year before. It can definitely get better but like I said before the offense is going to get the most attention. In this draft scenario I'd definitely look towards Marqise Lee for the Ravens or maybe even Eric Ebron (I don't think they'll address tight end so high though). If you want to go defense a guy like Hageman is probably the best bet.
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Old 02-11-2014, 06:34 PM    (permalink
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I really hope we don't pass on Bridgewater for Manziel. If we end up getting Manziel, I'll cross my fingers, but I wouldn't be thrilled about it. Especially if Teddy is still there.
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Old 02-11-2014, 06:43 PM    (permalink
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Jeremy Hill in the 1st? Ouch.
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Old 02-11-2014, 10:16 PM    (permalink
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First of all, this may have been the most unique, enjoyable mock I have seen so far, I enjoyed it on several fronts.

For the Bills, the pick makes sense for the very reason's you state and then some. I do think there are better players available (Barr, Van Noy and Ebron IMO) and I do think after listening to Marrone, they will go BPA available, in a recent press conference he stated so and that they are not at the point where they can go based on need early in the draft. If Evans is the BPA they will take him though. For what ever thats worth.

Van Noy IMO is the most under rated player in the draft, I have him as a fringe top 10 talent, and feel like I am talking myself out of the top 10 with him. Regardless, he'll be a steal where ever he goes. Buffalo at 9 would be fine with me. Great little analysis on him, I see it too.

Jeremy Hill, has some fantastic qualities, top 10 is a little too rich for my blood at this point, I have not seen the "anger running" or intentional initiation of contact like Lynch or Peterson, but I have watched him, his whole career at LSU and he does have the potetial, while doing so at times. I currently have him as my #1 back in the draft after doing my 2nd takes on RB's yesterday and a 1st round grade. He does have long speed but I think he slows down after about 30/40 yards, I dont think he has the stamina of a Peterson to take it all the way consistantly in that regard, but a 4.5 would open eyes for sure. I am anticipating 4.6ish myself.

Jarvis Landry - Great analysis there as well IMO, about spot on with my assesment. If he had a better release in particular when it comes to beating the jam, I think he'd be a first round lock. Even in trying not to be a LSU homer, he's my favorite as well with a close call coming Moncrief's way.

Speaking of the devil. Great little write up on Moncrief as well. Could not agree more. I was high one him coming into the season, and I think he'll rise in the upcoming months as well. I am really excited to see him in the pre-draft process.

Anyway, nice job!! +rep
Thanks, man; I really appreciate that.

I've had a similar experience with Van Noy. I see the mocks and draft boards and put it in my head that he's a 2nd RD pick, but then every time I go back to watch him, I come away thinking he's one of the best players in the draft. I knew it wouldn't be a popular pick, but he's a bad dude.

One of my favorite draft guys in existence had Moncrief as his top WR going into the season, and his reasoning was excellent. After Sammy Watkins brilliant year, I don't see anyone catching him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Moncrief leapfrog anyone else.

I agree that Hill doesn't run as nasty as AP and Lynch, but he can still break down a D. He's a lot quicker than people give him credit for. That's the thing for me, he has amazing feet, pad level, and balance. The long speed is gravy. Being a Dolphins fan, I'm curious to see how much of Chip Kelly Lazor bring with him. The two best RB's out of the spread - imo - are Lynch and Shady McCoy. To me Hill has feet in that ballpark. Those guys can really jump cut, and Hill is the same way. I know he buttered his bread in the I, but he has the feet to do big things in any system.

When I first watched Beckham and Landry, I thought, 'Wow, this Beckham guy is a legit 1st-Rd talent, and Landry's good too - maybe a 3rd.' The more you watch Landry, though, the more you love his game. You notice all the little things he does to help his team win. Has some Hines Ward to him. He'll probably be underrated his entire career.

Thanks, again, man. I really appreciate that you enjoyed some of the non-standard picks. Awesome insight, too.
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Old 02-11-2014, 10:39 PM    (permalink
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Really like your mock. You've got a lot of my personal favorite players in there. Specifially Hill, Landry and Montcrief. I think they're all going to keep getting hyped through the process and I think the combine is going to put all three of them firmly into the conversation. I wouldn't really be surprised if Jarvis Landry runs just as well as Odell Beckham junior, Hill's going to make the SPARQ guys drool (like the Seahawks front office did over Christine Michael), and Donte Moncreif is going to force a lot of people to insist he's not the next Julio Jones. The only one that really made me raise my eyebrows a little was, as many have said, Kyle Van Noy. The dip in production makes me think he put up some nice numbers because other teams were focusing on his teammates last year (namely Ziggy Ansah), and when I watch him on tape, I just don't see a player I'd want to take tenth overall. I imagine you're hoping he's another Kiko Alonso, so it's justifiable to me, but I just wouldn't be comfortable with that pick if I was the Lions. (Although, hey - he'd be back with Ansah.)
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