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Old 04-22-2014, 06:39 PM    (permalink
Jomoz
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Default New York Giants luckiest team in Super Bowl history, Eagles unluckiest

We always talk about the 2007 and 2011 Giants as being almost undeserving of their Super Bowl trophies, and clearly overachieving and getting very fortunate breaks along the way.

But some economist actually broke this down by comparing the actual team statistics over the past 50+ years and comparing them to the number of Super Bowl wins for those teams, and determining which team overachieved and which team should have won more Super Bowls than it did.

Very interesting article:

http://www.footballperspective.com/t...omes-to-rings/

Quote:
Most Unlikely Loser since the Merger: Philadelphia Eagles
Despite leading the league in DVOA or estimated DVOA four times (1980, 1981, 2001, and 2008), and racking up 1.93 hypothetical Super Bowl wins, the Eagles have nothing to show for it. Philadelphia’s lead in this category is large in part because the Vikings’ 1969 season doesn’t qualify. Even if we include the entire Super Bowl era, however, the Eagles have the highest expected number of Lombardi trophies without actually owning any silverware. They have just a 12% chance of being without a Super Bowl title as of 2014.
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Most Unlikely Winner since the Merger: New York Giants
This one is kind of amazing. The Giants have just 0.95 expected Super Bowl wins, but have 4 actual ones. When looking at New York’s DVOA ratings and playoff seedings, there was a 35% chance of no rings for Big Blue. The Giants led the league in DVOA just once since the merger (1990) and only one more time (1959) overall. New York is held out of the top spot overall by their five championship game losses between 1950 and 1966. Despite all those losses, the Giants’ recent good fortune makes them #3 in titles above expectation going back to 1950.
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Old 04-22-2014, 06:43 PM    (permalink
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No, youre the only one who constantly says they didn't deserve to win those SB's, because you made the stupidest homer bet of all time and then in typical thumper action you went back on that bet and continue to make fake accounts acting like we can't all immediately pick up who you are by your posts. Its as transparent as Jmike's 8 million threads that somehow aren't really about whatever team he's talking about and really about the green bay packers.
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Jesse realizing Walt was Santa Claus could really shake things up.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.
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Old 04-22-2014, 08:13 PM    (permalink
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I don't understand why these stats matter I guess. I suppose there is some kind of bizarre validation in it but really it's just denying reality.
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Old 04-22-2014, 08:35 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Philly Mag reports the Eagles are "open to moving" OLB/DE Brandon Graham.

They probably want to trade Graham at this point. He's clearly not a fit in the 3-4 defense as an undersized pass rusher at 6-foot-2. The 13th overall pick in the 2010 draft is entering the final year of his deal and has 11.5 career sacks. He's already reportedly been dangled in talks for Dion Jordan. If the Eagles can't trade Graham, they may very well just cut him. Apr 11 - 9:23 AM

Source: Philly Mag: Birds 24/7
Oh no!




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Old 04-22-2014, 08:56 PM    (permalink
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Old 04-22-2014, 09:32 PM    (permalink
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Thumper!!!!!!!!
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Old 04-22-2014, 09:34 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Despite leading the league in DVOA or estimated DVOA four times (1980, 1981, 2001, and 2008), and racking up 1.93 hypothetical Super Bowl wins
Ah, the elusive hypothetical SB win all these teams go after.
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Old 04-22-2014, 09:59 PM    (permalink
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"I'd rather be lucky than good."
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Old 04-22-2014, 10:16 PM    (permalink
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Someone needs to publish some statistics on the number of hypothetical times Thumper has been right. That'll show us. Unluckiest poster ever!
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Jesse realizing Walt was Santa Claus could really shake things up.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.

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Old 04-22-2014, 11:22 PM    (permalink
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DVOA is a **** stat. Football Outsiders sucks.
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Old 04-23-2014, 01:53 AM    (permalink
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Those hypothetical Lombardi Trophies sure ain't as shiny as the real ones.
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Justin Tucker is a better and more productive NFL player than Brandon Graham.
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Old 04-23-2014, 08:41 AM    (permalink
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Giants are pretty lucky that their QB didn't puke in the super bowl, i'll give you that
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BTW, if it's 3rd and 97... I'm throwing a screen pass to Brian Leonard and he will convert.
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Old 04-23-2014, 08:46 AM    (permalink
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Giants are pretty lucky that their QB didn't puke in the super bowl, i'll give you that
Whats important here however, is they would have won hypothetically had he not puked, which is essentially the same thing as winning.
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Jesse realizing Walt was Santa Claus could really shake things up.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.
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Old 04-23-2014, 08:50 AM    (permalink
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I don't know how I'm supposed to live knowing that the Eagles have more hypothetical Super Bowls than the Giants. My world has been rocked since last night.
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Old 04-23-2014, 09:18 AM    (permalink
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Are the Eagles the unluckiest team or just the biggest choker?

You could rewrite the whole article and replace the word "luck" with "clutch". You can make stats tell whatever narrative you want them to.

"A real man makes his own luck."
-Guy from Titanic
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Old 04-23-2014, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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Well the Maras are Irish. So it would make sense the luck of the Irish follow them.
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Old 04-23-2014, 12:47 PM    (permalink
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i ate a big breakfast this morning and left 1.4 hypothetical super bowl wins a few minutes after.
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Old 04-23-2014, 01:48 PM    (permalink
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The Seahawks won 1 actual super bowl last season, how many hypothetical championships does that buy? What's the conversion rate?
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Old 04-23-2014, 05:57 PM    (permalink
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Oh no!




Jskshfbalsnf
Moving Graham is the best thing that could happen for him... it will give him a chance to start for a 4-3 team as a 4-3 DE, which is his best position.

Chip Kelly is trying to force a 3-4 on a bunch of 4-3 players.

I guarantee that if Brandon Graham is starting as a 4-3 DE in the NFL for 14+ games, he will get 10+ sacks and make the Pro Bowl.
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:05 PM    (permalink
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Is this the real Pro Bowl or the hypothetical one?
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:08 PM    (permalink
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Is this the real Pro Bowl or the hypothetical one?
The same real Pro Bowl that Jason Pierre Paul hasn't been a part the past year and never will sniff again in his one-year-wonder career.
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:09 PM    (permalink
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Moving Graham is the best thing that could happen for him... it will give him a chance to start for a 4-3 team as a 4-3 DE, which is his best position.

Chip Kelly is trying to force a 3-4 on a bunch of 4-3 players.

I guarantee that if Brandon Graham is starting as a 4-3 DE in the NFL for 14+ games, he will get 10+ sacks and make the Pro Bowl.
And what if he still sucks and continues to only be a backup on his new team? He is a fine rotational guy but not really a stater.
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
And what if he still sucks and continues to only be a backup on his new team? He is a fine rotational guy but not really a stater.
He has shown elite pass rush ability in limited snaps. Just because he hasn't started yet doesn't mean he isn't an elite player - injuries held him back in 2011 and system change held him back last year.

Look at a guy like Cameron Wake - he wasn't a starter until later in his career after being a rotational player and miscast in various coach's systems... and then turned into one of the best pass rushers in the NFL when he was given a chance to start.

All Graham needs is a chance to start.
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:15 PM    (permalink
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Whats the point of guaranteeing something? You swore you'd never come back if the Giants won a single playoff game, yet here you are.
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damix View Post
Whats the point of guaranteeing something? You swore you'd never come back if the Giants won a single playoff game, yet here you are.
I'm not Thumper, despite everyone thinking for some reason that I am. I'm not even an Eagles fan. I hate Chip Kelly, and I think the Eagles will be bad this year anyway.

I just know talent when I see it, and think Graham is severely underrated because of injury / scheme mismatch and think he could be one of the 5 best pass rushers in the NFL when starting full-time in a 4-3.

I also hated Jason Pierre Paul as a talent evaluator coming out of the draft, thought he was one of the most overrated players, and thought his 2011 season was a fluke. I am confident that this assessment will still be the truth going into the future, as Pierre Paul has really only had one good season so far in the NFL.
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