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Old 05-02-2014, 09:55 AM    (permalink
J-Mike88
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Default Sammy Watkins: Worth the Hype?

Name the greatest WRs of all time.... or at least modern NFL football.

You have to start with:
  • Jerry Rice (about pick #16)
  • Randy Moss (about #22)

And next in line from more recent are:
  • Calvin Johnson (#2, should have been #1)
  • Andre Johnson (after Charles Rogers IIRC)
  • Reggie Wayne (end of round 1)
  • Terrell Owens (round 3)
  • Marvin Harrison (in the 20's IIRC)
  • Larry Fitzgerald (early, top 4?)
  • Donald Driver* (#212)

Only Megatron & Fitzgerald, IIRC, were top-10 picks.
But I've seen a lot of bust WRs in the top-10 over the years.

I am not saying Watkins has bust written all over him.

But I want someone to convince everyone what makes him so special, such a can't miss prospect, to justify a top-5, even top-2 or 3 pick like I am seeing.

I don't see all "that".
Megatron obviously had all that with his special size mixed with speed, and jumping ability, and hands. Fitzgerald had it all too, except just good speed and not great speed. But everything else was 10/10.

In Sammy, I see "good" speed. Decent size. Decent hands.
I don't see anything "special" . A lot of good.

I like the dude, he seems like a good person, not the primadona that this position is often littered with.

He seems to have good work ethic, which is often the reason a guy fails.
Another reason many fail is crappy QB/offense.

I just think, for some reason, like Justin Blackmon, Aaron Curry a few years ago, like Charles Rogers a few years ago, like Trent Richardson, sometimes a guy gets way overrated. This, IMO, is the strongest bet to be that guy this year.

There was never anything special about Blackmon's overall skillset, other than his college production.

*I kid
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Old 05-02-2014, 09:57 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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He's a stud. Few if any weaknesses. Insane run after the catch skills, elite hands, good build to absorb hits, can go up and get a 50/50 ball better than you'd think. He's a pure playmaker who explodes off the tape when you watch his team. One of the least risky prospects I can remember.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:02 AM    (permalink
badgerbacker
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He's like a polished version of Cordarrelle Patterson, in my opinion.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:06 AM    (permalink
fredder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Mike88 View Post
Name the greatest WRs of all time.... or at least modern NFL football.

You have to start with:
  • Jerry Rice (about pick #16)
  • Randy Moss (about #22)

And next in line from more recent are:
  • Calvin Johnson (#2, should have been #1)
  • Andre Johnson (after Charles Rogers IIRC)
  • Reggie Wayne (end of round 1)
  • Terrell Owens (round 3)
  • Marvin Harrison (in the 20's IIRC)
  • Larry Fitzgerald (early, top 4?)
  • Donald Driver* (#212)

Only Megatron & Fitzgerald, IIRC, were top-10 picks.
But I've seen a lot of bust WRs in the top-10 over the years.

I am not saying Watkins has bust written all over him.

But I want someone to convince everyone what makes him so special, such a can't miss prospect, to justify a top-5, even top-2 or 3 pick like I am seeing.

I don't see all "that".
Megatron obviously had all that with his special size mixed with speed, and jumping ability, and hands. Fitzgerald had it all too, except just good speed and not great speed. But everything else was 10/10.

In Sammy, I see "good" speed. Decent size. Decent hands.
I don't see anything "special" . A lot of good.

I like the dude, he seems like a good person, not the primadona that this position is often littered with.

He seems to have good work ethic, which is often the reason a guy fails.
Another reason many fail is crappy QB/offense.

I just think, for some reason, like Justin Blackmon, Aaron Curry a few years ago, like Charles Rogers a few years ago, like Trent Richardson, sometimes a guy gets way overrated. This, IMO, is the strongest bet to be that guy this year.

There was never anything special about Blackmon's overall skillset, other than his college production.

*I kid
I'm not quite as high on Watkins as some are. I think he's solidly the 5th best WR prospect of the past 10 years behind Calvin, Fitz, AJ Green, and Julio Jones. I've heard some people say he's as good as AJ Green/Julio were and I disagree strongly with that.

I think the thing you're missing in your evaluation is how strong Watkins is with the ball in his hands. He's not built like an AJ Green where he's tall and lanky. He's thick and looks like a RB after the catch. He's close to an elite physical specimen at the position.

He has his question marks though. He ran a pretty limited route tree at Clemson and I didn't see him consistently show the ability to attack the ball in the air.

Overall I easily see him as a top 5-10 player in this draft but maybe not quite as good as some people are saying.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:08 AM    (permalink
shylo3716
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Mike88 View Post
Name the greatest WRs of all time.... or at least modern NFL football.

You have to start with:
  • Jerry Rice (about pick #16)
  • Randy Moss (about #22)

And next in line from more recent are:
  • Calvin Johnson (#2, should have been #1)
  • Andre Johnson (after Charles Rogers IIRC)
  • Reggie Wayne (end of round 1)
  • Terrell Owens (round 3)
  • Marvin Harrison (in the 20's IIRC)
  • Larry Fitzgerald (early, top 4?)
  • Donald Driver* (#212)

Only Megatron & Fitzgerald, IIRC, were top-10 picks.
But I've seen a lot of bust WRs in the top-10 over the years.

I am not saying Watkins has bust written all over him.

But I want someone to convince everyone what makes him so special, such a can't miss prospect, to justify a top-5, even top-2 or 3 pick like I am seeing.

I don't see all "that".
Megatron obviously had all that with his special size mixed with speed, and jumping ability, and hands. Fitzgerald had it all too, except just good speed and not great speed. But everything else was 10/10.

In Sammy, I see "good" speed. Decent size. Decent hands.
I don't see anything "special" . A lot of good.

I like the dude, he seems like a good person, not the primadona that this position is often littered with.

He seems to have good work ethic, which is often the reason a guy fails.
Another reason many fail is crappy QB/offense.

I just think, for some reason, like Justin Blackmon, Aaron Curry a few years ago, like Charles Rogers a few years ago, like Trent Richardson, sometimes a guy gets way overrated. This, IMO, is the strongest bet to be that guy this year.

There was never anything special about Blackmon's overall skillset, other than his college production.

*I kid
Odell Beckham Jr. will play better as a rookie.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown
The most important thing, however, is how strong their swagger factors are.
Newton
South of the Mason Dixon +10 swagger
Barely literate +5 swagger
Thief +15 swagger
Kicked off of a team of thugs +20 swagger
Big, average speed -3 swagger
Hasn't done jacksquat on the field +15 swagger
Total Swagger: 62
ATL College Park Zone 3* +20 swagger Bonus pts
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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I could see Evans, Beckham or Moncrief having equally productive or better careers. I don't think he's 'by far and away' the best wideout prospect or anything. Super talented but in my eyes if you need a pass catcher missing out on him is by no means the end of the world in this class.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:15 AM    (permalink
jrdrylie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Mike88 View Post

I just think, for some reason, like Justin Blackmon, Aaron Curry a few years ago, like Charles Rogers a few years ago, like Trent Richardson, sometimes a guy gets way overrated. This, IMO, is the strongest bet to be that guy this year.
Justin Blackmon wasn't overrated. He averaged 7 receptions for 104 yards in his four games last season (with terrible quarterbacking). Combine that with a very impressive second half of his rookie year (54 receptions for 723 yards) and you can see he has the makings to be a very good player. Unfortunately he has serious alcohol issues. If you say Watkins is going to be what a clean Blackmon would be, he is certainly worth the hype.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:20 AM    (permalink
shylo3716
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
Justin Blackmon wasn't overrated. He averaged 7 receptions for 104 yards in his four games last season (with terrible quarterbacking). Combine that with a very impressive second half of his rookie year (54 receptions for 723 yards) and you can see he has the makings to be a very good player. Unfortunately he has serious alcohol issues. If you say Watkins is going to be what a clean Blackmon would be, he is certainly worth the hype.
I'd love for Sammy to become Jacksonville's selection.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown
The most important thing, however, is how strong their swagger factors are.
Newton
South of the Mason Dixon +10 swagger
Barely literate +5 swagger
Thief +15 swagger
Kicked off of a team of thugs +20 swagger
Big, average speed -3 swagger
Hasn't done jacksquat on the field +15 swagger
Total Swagger: 62
ATL College Park Zone 3* +20 swagger Bonus pts
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:20 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
He's a stud. Few if any weaknesses. Insane run after the catch skills, elite hands, good build to absorb hits, can go up and get a 50/50 ball better than you'd think. He's a pure playmaker who explodes off the tape when you watch his team. One of the least risky prospects I can remember.
Have to agree, explosive hand catcher who extends to catch the ball at the high point. Can freeze a defenders feet and then accelerate past him. He's a double move magician. Can separate from even the best pass defenders. Uncanny ability to break tackles and split defenders.

He is also explosive on kickoff returns and led the country in 2013 with 837 yards after the catch. Should be a totally dominate receiver within 2 years of being drafted. I'd put him ahead of AJ and Julio because he can do more after the catch, but behind Calvin and Andre because they are faster.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:25 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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I'd love for Sammy to become Jacksonville's selection.
I can't tell what they want to do, but I have to imagine their board goes Clowney,Mack,Watkins in terms of non-QBs. It could certainly happen.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:37 AM    (permalink
shylo3716
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
I can't tell what they want to do, but I have to imagine their board goes Clowney,Mack,Watkins in terms of non-QBs. It could certainly happen.
I'd pull the trigger on Watkins and take Garoppolo in the 2nd.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeJoeBrown
The most important thing, however, is how strong their swagger factors are.
Newton
South of the Mason Dixon +10 swagger
Barely literate +5 swagger
Thief +15 swagger
Kicked off of a team of thugs +20 swagger
Big, average speed -3 swagger
Hasn't done jacksquat on the field +15 swagger
Total Swagger: 62
ATL College Park Zone 3* +20 swagger Bonus pts
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:53 AM    (permalink
J-Mike88
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Originally Posted by shylo3716 View Post
I'd pull the trigger on Watkins and take Garoppolo in the 2nd.
I'd love you guys to reach for Garoppolo in the 2nd.

Sammy isn't even 6'1" officially.

I just think he's right in there with a handful of other good WR prospects in this class. Nothing special or any separation with him IMO.

Time will tell.
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Old 05-02-2014, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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I agree with this. Watkins is a very god prospect and definitely a first round talent, but I see more mid to late first round than an elite top 5 guy. He's only 6'0.5 tall and wasn't a star in any of the drills at the combine and has very limited route tree experience. Over half of his receptions were screens IIRC, so you're essentially drafting him to play a RB with good hands at this point. Not saying he can't improve, but right now he's a middle class mans cordarrelle Patterson with arguably better ball skills.... And Patterson went 29
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:44 PM    (permalink
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I could see Evans, Beckham or Moncrief having equally productive or better careers. I don't think he's 'by far and away' the best wideout prospect or anything. Super talented but in my eyes if you need a pass catcher missing out on him is by no means the end of the world in this class.
If i'm desperate for a QB or a LT or even an edge rusher i'm going to pass on Watkins to fill that need. At some point though you can't pass on him even if there are a ton of good receivers in this draft.
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:51 PM    (permalink
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He has great talent and I think he will be a stud. The only thing that really worries me about him is that so much of what he did was screen type plays, there could be a learning curve for him to get adjusted to an NFL offense.

The height isn't a problem for me. He attacks the ball when it is in the air and is an absolute beast physically, truly like a running back with the ball in his hands. He isn't polished but he has the talent to be one of the best receivers in the league.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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LOL. Watkins measured 6 feet and three quarters of an inch at the combine.

He's 6'1.

And Andre Johnson never did have better game speed than Sammie. Neither does Megatron. Those guys just don't have his acceleration or quickness in and out of cuts.

Watkins isn't tall enough IMO to be a super elite WR prospect, but that doesn't mean he won't dominate at the next level.

BTW I think there are several future pro bowl caliber WRs in this draft, not just Sammie.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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Watkins skillset combined with reported plus character makes him a must have pick.

He almost reminds me of a Percy Harvin except with better size and character. Might take some adjustment to be a true #1 WR but will still be deadly effective if you get the ball into his hands rookie year.

I think he's clearly the best offensive weapon available this year.

He's not quite Julio or Green buts he's close.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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"Good" speed? No.

He's got work to do as a downfield receiver, and his play style is concerning because he runs like a RB, but he's got every single trait you want in a top WR. He's better than Blackmon because he's more athletic.

I could buy someone saying Evans projects better but this kid is special also. He's not AJ Green or Julio yet but no one is. He's more raw than people realize but as long as he puts in the work he'll be one of the best playmakers in the NFL.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by badgerbacker View Post
He's like a polished version of Cordarrelle Patterson, in my opinion.
Nah, Patterson is in a class by himself. A "polished" version of Cordarrelle would be (will be?) one of the greatest offensive weapons of all time. Watkins is smaller and isn't nearly as explosive with the ball in his hands. Which isn't to say he's "not explosive," but... Cordarrelle is a freak.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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The only knock I have against Sammy is that he is too robotic for my liking.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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If i'm desperate for a QB or a LT or even an edge rusher i'm going to pass on Watkins to fill that need. At some point though you can't pass on him even if there are a ton of good receivers in this draft.
Can't disagree too much here.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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Nah, Patterson is in a class by himself. A "polished" version of Cordarrelle would be (will be?) one of the greatest offensive weapons of all time. Watkins is smaller and isn't nearly as explosive with the ball in his hands. Which isn't to say he's "not explosive," but... Cordarrelle is a freak.
Yeah I probably overstepped a little with that. Maybe "more" polished would have been more accurate since Watkins is still far from a completed product. He isn't as big, but I honestly believe Watkins is right with Patterson for explosiveness.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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Nah, Patterson is in a class by himself. A "polished" version of Cordarrelle would be (will be?) one of the greatest offensive weapons of all time. Watkins is smaller and isn't nearly as explosive with the ball in his hands. Which isn't to say he's "not explosive," but... Cordarrelle is a freak.
Meh. I don't think that's a bad comparison for Watkins. Athletically they're very similar, except Cordarrelle is an inch taller. But Watkins is the better overall WR, at least so far.

From zero to 20 yards, Watkins is as explosive as any WR in the game. Patterson is not more explosive than Watkins.

It's Sammie's one attribute that really jumps out at you, his ability to separate in the open field.
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Old 05-02-2014, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by fredder View Post
I'm not quite as high on Watkins as some are. I think he's solidly the 5th best WR prospect of the past 10 years behind Calvin, Fitz, AJ Green, and Julio Jones.
He's not a better prospect than Crabtree.
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Old 05-02-2014, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
From zero to 20 yards, Watkins is as explosive as any WR in the game. Patterson is not more explosive than Watkins.

It's Sammie's one attribute that really jumps out at you, his ability to separate in the open field.
I'm going to be bullish on this. Watkins is explosive and a great prospect, but Patterson is one of, if not the, best open field runners I have ever scouted. Watkins is not. He's good, but he's not someone I think of as one of the best ever. Watkins is plenty capable of making big plays and taking short plays to the house, but there's a lot of guys who can do that. Patterson is the best at that, though. Watkins is good, but Patterson is the best. Yes, Patterson is absolutely more explosive than Watkins with the ball in his hands. People get hyperbolic about the best prospects in a given class around draft time. Watkins is a great prospect, but Patterson is like the standard for explosiveness in my eyes.
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