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Old 12-31-2013, 10:36 AM    (permalink
gpngc
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Default It's time to have THAT talk again (Jets & Geno Smith)

Geno Smith played pretty well the past two weeks and the Jets played inspired team ball to knock the Phins out of the playoffs and save Rex Ryan's job.

Here are the facts:

- The Jets will have a ton of cap space and 9 draft picks.
- The Jets already have a good, arguably very good, defense.
- The Jets will be picking at No. 18 overall, Ryan only has a 2-year deal. Given the state of this QB class and the QB market in general and Rex's need to get to the playoffs ASAP, drafting a QB (at 18, in the 2nd, trading up) doesn't seem like a likely scenario - even though I would argue that going that route might be the best move in the long term for the franchise.
- The Jets BADLY need a TE and two WRs.

Possible QB options:
1) Kirk Cousins would be available, perhaps for a 2nd round pick or less (maybe two 2nds). Cousins has shown flashes in spot duty but with two duds in his last two games, he's not a surefire starter as a trade target.

2) Jay Cutler might hit the open market, or he might be traded after tagged. If he's available I have NO DOUBT that the Jets would sniff around. But other teams would be involved and I think ultimately the Bears keep him.

3) A veteran backup type might be an upgrade over Geno Smith. Think a Kyle Orton type or Josh McCown. Not sure who's available but trading a 4th for an upgrade at QB isn't a horrible idea.

Point number 4 has to do with the entire league. WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFF are these teams going to POSSIBLY do about these QB situations????? There are NO ******* QBs. The Jets may have to just bite the bullet with Geno simply because there really aren't any better options. It's crazy. There are almost 10 teams that need starting QBs. We thought Glennon would definitely get another chance after a solid start but he tailed off big time and in comes a new regime in Tampa with no ties to him. We thought Cousins would start somewhere after a trade but he played poorly down the stretch. If the Bears keep Cutler, there will be a million teams looking for a STARTING QB for NEXT YEAR, not including a team like the Cardinals who need to look for Palmer's successor. Is this the year Mallett gets traded? Not to the Jets - but that would at least fill one spot.

Long story short, the Raiders might have to settle for Terrell Pryor and the Browns might have to settle for Jason Campbell - that's how thin this QB market is.

That leaves the Jets staring in the face of Geno Smith.

I'm sure the popular consensus will be "his weapons suck, he got better as the season went on, he'll get better this was his rookie year, etc."

Not a bad point, but the guy was DREADFUL at times and has so much work to do on his game, on the fly while costing his team games, that it's really hard to support him as THE guy. But sadly the Jets may have to by default.

So what should the Jets do? Hope that a guy who wasn't a great prospect to begin with, after a rookie year with a 55% comp. 12/21 TD/INT, and 6.9 YPA takes a GIANT leap in year two? (EDIT: Just to be fair he also rushed for 6 TDs - the Jets ran him way more than Holgo did at WVU, which is interesting - MM wants clearly is willing to run his QB - why not actually draft a running QB?)

I like the Jets, I think Rex is a terrific coach, and the outlook is bright after a real FU 8-8 season when people thought they'd win 5 games at best. But they had a surprisingly good year IN SPITE of their QB. Gotta upgrade. But how?
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Old 12-31-2013, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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Good topic. Generally I'm down on Geno but there's a factor that I don't think can be quite discounted; the Jets O actually seems to play for him. I'm probably factoring too much of week 17 into this thinking, but there have been WAY too many times the Jets Offense displays no heart in the last couple years to discount the Geno Effect entirely. they were really getting after it!

He's got a ton of work to do on his game, no doubt about it, but I believe in Rex's defenses so he doesn't need to be a gamechanger. I'd love to see him with a Sammy Watkins or a more surefire wideout.

Here's the real key to that statement: I want to see him with a guy who is getting wide open. Just given the Geno skillset, let's not try and expect him to throw darts to the outside shoulder to hit a covered guy right off the bat. The Jets O only needs a couple big drives per game to win games.
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Old 12-31-2013, 10:48 AM    (permalink
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Whatever happened to the days when it was acceptable for a rookie QB thrown into the starting job on an offense devoid of talent to suck?

Wait, wasn't that just season? Ryan Tannehill had a 58% completion rate, 6.8 ypa, more ints than tds. Don't recall any threads about replacing him already.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:00 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Monomach View Post
Whatever happened to the days when it was acceptable for a rookie QB thrown into the starting job on an offense devoid of talent to suck?

Wait, wasn't that just season? Ryan Tannehill had a 58% completion rate, 6.8 ypa, more ints than tds. Don't recall any threads about replacing him already.
Ya this is very true, I absolutely hate this trend of throwing rookie QBs into the fire. Give these guys time to develop and you might turn some of these blatant busts into guys like Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Kaepernick, all of whom had the chance to sit for at least a season.

Teams don't have the excuse of their monster contracts anymore; now it's driven by bad team management and the general dearth of talent at the position.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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Whatever happened to the days when it was acceptable for a rookie QB thrown into the starting job on an offense devoid of talent to suck?

Throwing a rookie to the wolves has been rephrased as "letting him get experience under center".
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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Long story short, the Raiders might have to settle for Terrell Pryor and the Browns might have to settle for Jason Campbell - that's how thin this QB market is.
Browns will settle for Hoyer while grooming a first/second round QB... Probably Manziel to be honest.

I will not be surprised one bit when we bring McDaniels in and draft Manziel 4th overall.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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Browns deserve better than Manziel. the last thing they should be dealing with is a diva QB who is going to get injured running his 140 pound body around the field.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:20 AM    (permalink
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Whatever happened to the days when it was acceptable for a rookie QB thrown into the starting job on an offense devoid of talent to suck?

Wait, wasn't that just season? Ryan Tannehill had a 58% completion rate, 6.8 ypa, more ints than tds. Don't recall any threads about replacing him already.
Those days are long gone.

It's way different these days. Guys come in way more prepared than ever before and get way more coached up than ever before. The transition must be quicker than it had to be 10-15 years ago.

And it's a copout. An excuse. A QB's job is to play well himself AND make players around him better. Geno didn't even do the first one. Rookie or not, his game has flaws that should be taken into account going forward.

As for Tanny, they invested a high first-round draft pick in him, it was like his third season of his life playing the position, he was a way better prospect, and he had a better rookie season than Smith, as you pointed out. Tannehill showed glimpses of brilliance, had terrific mechanics, and didn't turn the ball over at historic rate. Simply put, he's a better player and was a better rookie.

I also don't understand why QBs can't be discussed without comparisons. The topic isn't about Tannehill. What is the point of bringing him up in a thread about the Jets?
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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Browns deserve better than Manziel. the last thing they should be dealing with is a diva QB who is going to get injured running his 140 pound body around the field.
They're intrigued with him, I think Hoyer can succeed and I am probably in the minority. I wish QB wasn't SOOOOO important... This would be a perfect year to grab a wide receiver at 4 and an offensive lineman with the Colts pick and we would be so much better if Hoyer ends up being good.

If Hoyer ends up sucking and we go that route, we set our franchise back another year. It's always a soap opera with this team..

The Browns are already giving me a headache and its not even a full week past the regular season.




As far as the Jets are concerned - there were times Geno looked pretty good and times when he looked REALLY AWFUL. I want to see what he looks like with a legit receiver and tight end before I judge him.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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Ya this is very true, I absolutely hate this trend of throwing rookie QBs into the fire. Give these guys time to develop and you might turn some of these blatant busts into guys like Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Kaepernick, all of whom had the chance to sit for at least a season.

Teams don't have the excuse of their monster contracts anymore; now it's driven by bad team management and the general dearth of talent at the position.
If a guy is Aaron Rodgers, he is going to be Aaron Rodgers not matter what. Sitting behind Favre might have helped a bit, but he'd still be great if he had started from day one. Look at a guy like Luck. Crap weapons, crap line, crap running backs. And he has led the team to two playoffs in two years. We've been making excuses for Sam Bradford for four years now but his team was hardly any worse than the Colts were in Luck came in.

And if a guy is going to bust, it's going to happen either way. Will he bust less hard if he sits for two years? Maybe. But guys like Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and Jimmy Clausen are never turning into Brady, Manning, or Rodgers whether they start from day one or sit for 2 seasons.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:32 AM    (permalink
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If a guy is Aaron Rodgers, he is going to be Aaron Rodgers not matter what. Sitting behind Favre might have helped a bit, but he'd still be great if he had started from day one. Look at a guy like Luck. Crap weapons, crap line, crap running backs. And he has led the team to two playoffs in two years. We've been making excuses for Sam Bradford for four years now but his team was hardly any worse than the Colts were in Luck came in.

And if a guy is going to bust, it's going to happen either way. Will he bust less hard if he sits for two years? Maybe. But guys like Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and Jimmy Clausen are never turning into Brady, Manning, or Rodgers whether they start from day one or sit for 2 seasons.
I feel strongly about this. There's no way to prove it either way, but I've always agreed with this.

To add to that point, if a guy gets thrown into the fire, struggles, and that struggle destroys his psyche or somehow that tough experience ruins him (not included injury) he probably didn't have what it takes to be a great QB in the first place. I don't buy that a player who could have been great would get so messed up by struggling before he's ready, "stunting his growth" or some made-up BS that the decision to play him "too early" would ruin him more than him just not having what it takes.

Again, there's no way to prove it either way but I've always thought any experience, ESPECIALLY if its tough and difficult, is a good thing for a player's development.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:33 AM    (permalink
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If a guy is Aaron Rodgers, he is going to be Aaron Rodgers not matter what. Sitting behind Favre might have helped a bit, but he'd still be great if he had started from day one. Look at a guy like Luck. Crap weapons, crap line, crap running backs. And he has led the team to two playoffs in two years. We've been making excuses for Sam Bradford for four years now but his team was hardly any worse than the Colts were in Luck came in.

And if a guy is going to bust, it's going to happen either way. Will he bust less hard if he sits for two years? Maybe. But guys like Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and Jimmy Clausen are never turning into Brady, Manning, or Rodgers whether they start from day one or sit for 2 seasons.
How can you know though? We only know reality, which is that they busted hard. If they had had a chance to learn the system, train in an NFL program, do all the dirty work for a solid year, and most importantly give their team another year to build up an offense around them, you don't think it would have improved their chances?

certain guys sure they would've done well in any scenario, but I don't think you can say that extra training time universally doesn't matter.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:37 AM    (permalink
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Those days are long gone.

It's way different these days. Guys come in way more prepared than ever before and get way more coached up than ever before. The transition must be quicker than it had to be 10-15 years ago.

And it's a copout. An excuse. A QB's job is to play well himself AND make players around him better. Geno didn't even do the first one. Rookie or not, his game has flaws that should be taken into account going forward.
Again, Tannehill did neither of these things last year.

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As for Tanny, they invested a high first-round draft pick in him, it was like his third season of his life playing the position, he was a way better prospect, and he had a better rookie season than Smith, as you pointed out. Tannehill showed glimpses of brilliance, had terrific mechanics, and didn't turn the ball over at historic rate. Simply put, he's a better player and was a better rookie.
Tannehill was a QB in high school. He only got played out of position in college because he was allowed to compete for the QB competition and lost it to scrubs in his first four years...and his rookie season wasn't that much better than Geno's. Geno's had flashes, too. One time, he even had a flash that lasted a whole game against a team that was in the playoffs last season (ATL).

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I also don't understand why QBs can't be discussed without comparisons. The topic isn't about Tannehill. What is the point of bringing him up in a thread about the Jets?
There have to be comparisons. If there are no comparisons, then Geno played well because there's no one being compared to him that played better, right?

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If a guy is Aaron Rodgers, he is going to be Aaron Rodgers not matter what. Sitting behind Favre might have helped a bit, but he'd still be great if he had started from day one. Look at a guy like Luck. Crap weapons, crap line, crap running backs. And he has led the team to two playoffs in two years. We've been making excuses for Sam Bradford for four years now but his team was hardly any worse than the Colts were in Luck came in.

And if a guy is going to bust, it's going to happen either way. Will he bust less hard if he sits for two years? Maybe. But guys like Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and Jimmy Clausen are never turning into Brady, Manning, or Rodgers whether they start from day one or sit for 2 seasons.
The problem with all of this is that we have no way of knowing whether it's accurate. It's literally impossible to prove. How do we know Aaron Rodgers would have been good without bench time? What about all those articles about how McCarthy had to break down his mechanics and re-train him how to play QB?

How is it fair to compare everyone to Luck, the once-in-a-decade QB prospect (whose pro work has actually been overrated on these boards)?

How do we know that Mark Sanchez wouldn't have ended up better sitting for a year or three behind a really intelligent QB getting the playbook down 100% in his head? How can that possibly be proven?

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Old 12-31-2013, 11:43 AM    (permalink
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I feel strongly about this. There's no way to prove it either way, but I've always agreed with this.
I feel strongly that Ryan Gosling is a Sasquatch from Jupiter. There's no way to prove it either way, but I've always agreed with this.

Come on, now. You're better than that.
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Old 12-31-2013, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Monomach View Post
I feel strongly that Ryan Gosling is a Sasquatch from Jupiter. There's no way to prove it either way, but I've always agreed with this.

Come on, now. You're better than that.
It's a projection. Given what we know now, it's reasonable to think that Rodgers would have been a great QB had he played as a rookie. Based on everything we know.

You also declined to quote part of my reasoning. I think it makes sense, JRDYLE agrees, and you don't. But you aren't arguing the opposite you're just saying there's no way of knowing for sure, which I've already stated.

Let's talk about Geno Smith and the Jets. Worthwhile comparisons would be Geno Smith to (insert possible Jets QB target here). Not sure how we spiraled into Tannehill, Rodgers, etc.
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
It's a projection. Given what we know now, it's reasonable to think that Rodgers would have been a great QB had he played as a rookie. Based on everything we know.

You also declined to quote part of my reasoning. I think it makes sense, JRDYLE agrees, and you don't. But you aren't arguing the opposite you're just saying there's no way of knowing for sure, which I've already stated.

Let's talk about Geno Smith and the Jets. Worthwhile comparisons would be Geno Smith to (insert possible Jets QB target here). Not sure how we spiraled into Tannehill, Rodgers, etc.
It's not reasonable to think that Rodgers would have come in and torn it up, though. It's established that he came into the league with less-than-desirable mechanics that McCarthy trained out of him when he sat behind Favre in his second and third years. Rodgers has said it, McCarthy has said it, Tedford's history would definitely support it. You guys just choose to ignore it....because.

He wasn't even "great" in his first year as a starter. He was "pretty good." It's weird to assume that he would have been great four years earlier when his mechanics were a messy gift given to him by Jeff Tedford.

Here's one of many articles about it:

Quote:
"McCarthy’s quarterback school paid off in a big way for signal caller Aaron Rodgers, who came into the league with quirky mechanics taught by the University of California’s infamous (in NFL circles) head coach Jeff Tedford and has since become arguably the league’s best quarterback.

Rodgers held the ball next to his ear when he was in a pre-pass triangle set at California. The mechanics appeared efficient at the time because he was able to get the ball out quickly in the Golden Bears short passing game, but he struggled throwing deep.

His throwing motion led to him throwing outside of his frame, which is not ideal and "stresses the shoulder" as quarterback guru George Whitfield Jr. says, and his footwork also suffered as he was not able to get proper timing nor transfer weight with any consistency. Rodgers explained this in an interview with ESPN last year:

"When I first got into the league, I held the ball really high. That was the standard in college, and it messed up my timing a bit -- the draw, bringing it back, then the release... You’re taught to get back as deep as you can, but you can never throw the ball out on time when you do that."

Under the tutelage of head coach McCarthy and quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, Rodgers pre-pass triangle set came down to between his numbers, consequently his motion became quicker, his power increased (also because of his cleaner footwork) and his timing improved. Now, Rodgers puts up video game numbers as he knifes through the heart of defenses with otherworldly throws.

"In Aaron Rodgers' particular situation, he had a very high ball carriage which I felt there was a stiffness to the way he carried the ball," McCarthy told our Adam Caplan during the 2010 NFL Scouting combine, "it wasn't as natural because he is a very good athlete and it's something you didn't see in my opinion in his earlier days, how good of an athlete he was and I think it's something we've adjusted and he's very natural with it. Every quarterback that I've ever coached, you're always looking to improve their mechanics."

Furthermore, as Risdon noted, mechanics may be able to be fixed or altered but it takes “time,” which is exactly what Rodgers had as he honed his skills for three seasons while legend Brett Favre played.

In contrast, my colleague Lance Zierlein noted in a recent conversation that former Houston Texans quarterback David Carr didn’t have the same success when offensive coordinator Chris Palmer attempted to alter his release point. Carr played during this time, which was his only choice for the expansion Houston Texans, and his career ultimately ended in disaster as he ended up being a bust after taking a significant amount of beating behind a porous offensive line and never improving his mechanics."
I think it's a lot more likely that Aaron Rodgers would be out of the league and just another footnote under the QB busts section of Jeff Tedford's wikipedia page if he hadn't had that time. I think Mark Sanchez needed it, too...and I do think Geno could benefit from a year learning the complete playbook and watching film of guys running the plays on the pages, at least.
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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My point, and his I think, wasn't that Rodgers would have been great in his first year or two or three years.

It was that he'd END UP being great and that sitting wasn't the primary reason for his eventual greatness - he himself being so great was. And that had he struggled being thrown into the fire, he'd have still become a great player and that struggle wouldn't have made crumble and end up like a bust. I think this because he's mentally tough, has shown an ability to overcome adversity, and most importantly, is an awesome QB.

To me it makes sense, but it is all hypothetical sideways world BS. You aren't even arguing the opposite, you're just saying "YOU CAN'T PROVE IT" which is true. You're right about that. Moving on...

As for GENO, I think the year on the job helped him way more than sitting and watching would have. He's already got a full year of starting experience heading into next year. He has a year of game film to evaluate and improve on. If him struggling this year really ruins him mentally, then he was mentally weak to begin with.
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:24 PM    (permalink
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I think Geno sucks. Sure, he plays hard. So what? Tim Tebow plays hard. The Jets aren't gonna be winning anything significant with Geno Smith, but they will learn that the hard way. I don't even think he could do it with a strong supporting cast (like Big Ben did).

Quote:
Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
If a guy is Aaron Rodgers, he is going to be Aaron Rodgers not matter what. Sitting behind Favre might have helped a bit, but he'd still be great if he had started from day one. Look at a guy like Luck. Crap weapons, crap line, crap running backs. And he has led the team to two playoffs in two years. We've been making excuses for Sam Bradford for four years now but his team was hardly any worse than the Colts were in Luck came in.

And if a guy is going to bust, it's going to happen either way. Will he bust less hard if he sits for two years? Maybe. But guys like Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, and Jimmy Clausen are never turning into Brady, Manning, or Rodgers whether they start from day one or sit for 2 seasons.
Oh this post touches a nerve. Wishing Romo was a little more like Luck.
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:33 PM    (permalink
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The GM and Ryan don't seem to be on the same page. I was under the impression that the GM wanted to replace Ryan but the owner intervened. The GM wants Geno starting so there are no other option for Ryan as I doubt he has any say in it. He stuck with Geno.

Can Geno improve, it is anybody's guess. Plenty of 2nd and 3rd year QB's have developed and gone on to be franchise QB's, so we just have to wait and see on Geno. He certainly could use some skill receivers to throw to.
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Old 12-31-2013, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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The Jets should sign another QB(they could have Cousins for a 3rd IMO), find Geno a TE and more WRs and I think the Jets' D can carry this team into the playoffs next season.

Geno needs to learn to be more efficient with the football, not turn it over and hit the occasional big play once a game. Their rushing attack and D will take care of the rest.
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Old 12-31-2013, 01:53 PM    (permalink
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One of these poor teams with no QB needs to give Tebow another chance. Maziel coming out next will be exact same just about . How well is he gonna do ? He's gonna get smacked around like a chew toy.
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Old 12-31-2013, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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probably should add some WRs to the team that can catch a cold.

Also add a legitimate veteran Qb to the team...just in case.
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Old 12-31-2013, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 49erNation85 View Post
One of these poor teams with no QB needs to give Tebow another chance. Maziel coming out next will be exact same just about . How well is he gonna do ? He's gonna get smacked around like a chew toy.
Geno Smith is nothing like Johnny Manziel. Manziel has high football IQ and a much better feel for the game.
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Old 12-31-2013, 04:26 PM    (permalink
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Smith had one of the worst rookie seasons I can recall for someone being handed the job. It is funny how he seems to be treated with kid gloves here. The jets would be wise to get another qb through the draft or free agency.
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Old 12-31-2013, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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It's simple to me. The Jets have to evaluate all of their qb options this offseason. If they can upgrade the position, then do it. If they can't, then don't.

Suppose Cutler is not available, they determine that the other FA qbs are not an upgrade (Cousins, Daniels, Mallett etc), and they feel that the qbs available in the draft are no better than Geno moving forward. Then stick with Geno and build around him.

However if they feel they have a better option in FA or the draft that would be a significant improvement over Geno, then they have to pull the trigger.

Geno already said he knows he's going into next season anticipating a qb competition. He was a 2nd round draft pick you have no obligation to play him if you don't want to. But again, is there any realistic upgrades available?

My guess is there won't be. And in that case you gotta ride with Geno.
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