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Old 07-03-2008, 02:01 AM    (permalink
thule
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Originally Posted by td#33 View Post
Name one ridiculous thing I have said or for that matter horrible opinions. You are just spouting out of your nose in order to round up sympathy from the sycophants on the site.

Fact is I told u so. Proving correct. Enuff said.

By EOY 2006 ....
Called Roy out.
Called Henry to FS.
Called Spears to NT.
Called the speed upgrade at ILB as key (Zach and Burnett).
Called Bradie over rated.
Called the fact our DB Corps would need to be redone. Finally this off-season.
Called Romo's breakdown of mechanics in the pocket -- particualrly in cold and/or wet weather. Finally this offseason I heard him acknowledge.
Called the team spineless for its late season swoons.

Still calling ....
Kosier out.
Austin to #2 if Glenn is done.
Crayton or Hurd but not both at #3.
Another WR -- preferably very tall -- is needed.
Carp is being wasted for political reasons. Should be traded.
Spencer was a wasted (thought talented) pick given Carp and Ellis.
Stanback will never pan (unfortunately) at WR beyond a #4 or #5.
2 OT in 2007 was a waste (had McQuistan in back up mode) -- take only 1.
Felix is a talented but wasted pick given our options at 22.
Bennet is a talented but wasted pick given Witten and we gave away Fasano.
Tank is still a big fat question mark.
Garrett will not win the big one unless he learns to run the ball consistently.
Wade is over rated as a D guy and is a useless HC.
JJ is a great owner but horrid player personnel guy.

But no worries dog .... I still root for us on Sunday as much as the next fannie. Should be a good year but will be a put up or shut up year for alot of our alleged Pro Bowlers.
figured i might as well throw in my stuff.

In 2006 you said roy needed to move to LB. Well he was moved to the Rover position and was 2nd on the team in tackles...although his technique isn't solid...he was a big reason our run defense was stout...even if he was overrunning plays....so you've yet to be right about that,

In 2006 you said Henry needed to move to FS...which would have been nice...yet we didn't have the depth..and there weren't options to land them if you take a look back. So once again don't go ahead patting yourself on the back.

In 2006 you said Spears needed to play as a 2 gap NT...which while it made sense from the way he played on the outside...really didn't translate to the inside...the massive bodies in there are just too much for him. Sure he could have put on some pounds and maybe worked out...but unless your in there making the calls it was nothing more than a dream. Hell take a look at week 17...not saying it's the best example due to the whole outcome and playing tempo of the game...just saying it's where he saw his first real live action at NT...and he got buckled or shoved out of the hole more than his fair share...and that was in an explosive one gap scheme. So i'm not giving you credit there either.

ILB upgrade works for me....but not alot of zach thomas's floating around at the time..and we had just invested in Akin....so I'll let ya have this one...although it wasn't anything out of the norm.

Bradie overrated...is something this board can go back and forth on over and over again...but fact is he is leading the teams in tackles and has the respect of the players and coaches....now you don't get that without earning it in the NFL...so whether he is a overrated or not...really can't be picked out on a week to week basis to me....but then again I don't hold him as high as others do...I'll give you some people overrate him...but you could say that about any player anywhere imo.

Everyone and there mom has been calling for our DB corps to be upgraded...we haven't had a solid #2 corner till Henry got here...and he hasn't been able to stay on the field long enough to show us he can be that guy full time...but atleast it stopped the rotating door we had before...I'll say everyone thought this...so good job on calling it with the rest of us.

The Romo thing looks to be about the only thing that I can give you that either hasn't been agreed about or proven. It's a solid reasoning for his declined play in bad weather...although much could be said the same for about half the QB's in the league. Bottom line is you won't find a QB in this league that isn't working on his technique in the offseason...noone has perfect technique every throw...it's working it and revamping it...always trying to improve yourself....so until Romo can compete at a high level in the bad weather there isn't really anything i can say to change you from being right to a point.

On things to come...Koiser is wanted to be upgraded by everyone around here...so we can atleast all agree on something

I'm not buying Austin as a starting WR for the cowboys...but thats because I haven't seen it from him...sure he looks good in spandex...but where are the plays in live games...I haven't seen anything from him that makes me feel comfortable putting him on the field 50+ snaps a game....Hurd has shown me he can contribute on the field...and thats why I like him more than Austin...bottomline is...Austin this is year 3 put up or shut up now.

Me and you were about the only too I think that agree'd on the crayton or hurd. I still think reupping crayton was a bit much...and think we should have had more faith in our guys coming up to replace him....sure he is a good target...but I don't see the difference in play to have 2 similar players on the roster....could have brought us a big time WR FA or atleast a draft pick that could do something for us...although I'm not really a fan of the last draft class...a guy like Hardy would have been a lot more draftable to our team without the log jam at WR.

Not sure I agree with you on the tall WR thing....lots of teams do it without one...With Witten/Curtis/Bennett we have plenty of height to get the job done....hell if it was me I'd run a package with Pat Watkins outside and let him go up and get it...his ball skills and jumping abiltiy are as good as any WR out there from what i've seen from him on the field and in real life.

Carp is one of those classic guys that gets the shaft do to a new coaching change....hard to know how I feel. Sure I'd love to see him in a Vrabel roll for us on the outside...and I think he could be actually a tad better than Vrabel if given the time in a 2 gap scheme...but at the same time I think in Wades scheme Spencer is the far superior pass rusher. Not to mention has proven he can get to the QB successfully over the course of the game...something we never really got to see out of carp...in defense to carp he is being shuffled an awful lot...but I still have big hopes for him this year....you can't have that much talent on be on the bench....I wouldn't be surprised to see him getting some snaps with the 1st team defense this year...getting 10-15 snaps....while I think he should have more....he isn't an upgrade over Thomas and really doesn't have any other chance. The way I picture it is...if Carp can get 10-15 snaps on the defense...thats 10-15 more than he got last year a game....where will they come form you ask? With Burnett and Thomas playing in the nickel....which we should run more this year with Roy not getting in that special dime package...Thomas is going to be seeing a lot of snaps...and although he is a great player...I find it hard to believe that he is going to be seeing every snap at his age...like a player like Ware will be seeing....I wouldn't be surprised to see Carp get some spell opportunities this year...and we'll actually get to see him progress...hopefully this happens where we can get him in as our future at the WILB position and have Burnett as our nickel/dime guy...that gives about each backer 25-50 snaps a game not counting special teams...which is really a nice mix for 3 inside backers..as far as play making ability but still keeping them fresh.

Stanback is all upside....but I still don't get how you proclaim Austin to a starting WR..and stanback as no more than a 4-5 WR...I think that is why sometimes you rub people the wrong way...but hell Stanback has the look and the mind....so although he is the most raw of the bunch I still give him a chance to have a future here...but unlike Austin this is only year 2...and i'll be more critical of him next year to put up.

The 2007 OT thing was a mess....but it was a lot like this year....we got out guy in Marten...similar to this year with Jenkins....then later on a player was on the board who far outweighed his positions and we picked him up to solidify our future. Free was simply too good to pass up where we landed him...and Marten was our look for the future on the right side...now the funny thing is...is that Marten doesn't look to be panning out on the outside...but we get to try him on the inside...where he does have all the tools to work. If he turns out to be the future on the inside...then you almost just have to applaud and take a deep breath saying we got lucky. But hey nothing wrong with luck on your side.

I'm going to reserve my judgement on Felix....still to this day I think that Mendenhall should have been the guy. But I'll never say Felix was a bad pick.

No problems with what you said about Bennett....still don't understand why we give away Fasano then replace him with another guy. Fasano might not have had a place in big D...so i didn't have a huge problem with the trade before the draft...but I don't go replacing him with a 2nd round pick....I'd rather wait until the 2nd day and try to find a 3rd TE later. Hell I like Hannah a lot maybe I just don't even touch that position and get a hb type guy like Hillis was last year...I think that atleast made more sense.

Garrett will learn...I have complete confidence that he can be a great coach in the NFL.

Wade you can say what you want...but he gains the respect of his players...and players love to play for him...I love him as a HC....surround him with talented coordinators and he is almost the perfect guy to bring everything together....I love the fit right now. Sure his "well we won 13 games this year....or we had 13 pro bowlers this year" gets annoying but he is a good coach imo.

I'm not as hard on jerry as you are...but I think we've seen a smarter front office since parcells arrived...and who got the most out of it? IMO it was the other jones....in the past 3 years...since s. jones has been doing the majority of the contracts I've feel in love with almost all the moves....Terrence Newman was on cold hard facts the other day talking about his contract negotiations and about jerry...and the thing that was great is he said stephen was more of the figures guy now....which I think is why we've seen a bit more successful recent past...but thats just my hunch...
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Old 07-03-2008, 07:16 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by thule View Post
Me and you were about the only too I think that agree'd on the crayton or hurd. I still think reupping crayton was a bit much...and think we should have had more faith in our guys coming up to replace him....sure he is a good target...but I don't see the difference in play to have 2 similar players on the roster....could have brought us a big time WR FA or atleast a draft pick that could do something for us...although I'm not really a fan of the last draft class...a guy like Hardy would have been a lot more draftable to our team without the log jam at WR...
Crayton was only signed for four years, 14 million, I challenge anybody to find a WR on their second contract who has produced the way Crayton has as a 7th rd pick and makes less then that, that contract is literally scraps, how could anybody not be happy about that? I agree I wanted Hardy to, but your telling me you would of preferred we saved the pennies from that contract and let him walk, and be looking at TO, Hurd as a 2, and Austin as a 3? That's asking a bit much considering Austin hasn't shown up consistently in a real game.

As far as us bringing in a big time WR FA, which one are you talking about? They were all severely overpaid, every single one, money that would of been 4x what Crayton got paid, and made it tougher for Hamlin or Canty to be resigned...Even drafting a rookie I wouldn't trust throwing him right out there...Crayton is what he is, he isn't anything special, but it seems like he has been catching an enormous amount of flack for a bad playoff game, people are already overlooking how well he played vs the Packers when Al Harris couldn't cover him man to man on the outside(as was the case with alot of other corners), and why are we acting like he won't get any better? Remeber this guy was converted from a QB too, but everybody acts like he hit his ceiling already and another year in the offense won't help him improve greatly.

Yes you could argue we have some similiar type WR's, but how about letting those guys develop to Crayton's point where they can step in a game and make big catches as he did many times last year, we can't just expect to throw these guys out there because they look good at OTA's, or they have been around awhile.


I just don't see the problem with bringing Crayton back with that type of deal, if you could find me a FA WR who was signed for cheaper or remotely the same type of deal, who is under 30 and can compete the same then I'll buy that argument, but we should of made a run at Hardy regardless of what we did with Crayton, but his miniscule contract is nothing that should be harped on, its like we just want to toss aside the guy already, he only posted 700 yds and 7 tds as a 7th rd pick and has consistently gotten better, I guess he's not flashy enough to deserve to stick around.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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Check this out, they're doing a DVD about the greatest games in cowboys history and it'll have the original tv broadcast. That sounds totally awesome!

I'm not sure how to post a link but it's on dc.com.
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:46 PM    (permalink
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Things have been way too dead around here the last few weeks.

Other than the usual superstars like Romo, Barbarian, T-New, Ware, TO, etc. Which players are you most excited to see this year?

Me personally, it's the following: Spencer, Free, Watkins, Choice, Hatcher, Bowen.
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Old 07-12-2008, 12:02 AM    (permalink
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I'm not a country music fan but, apparently Bobby Carpenter plays a shirtless cowboy is some chicks music video. hahahaha. He was on First Take today, Patty Crayton was on yesterday. I honestly have no idea why they wanted Carp on their show. No offense but, I mean seriously.

Anyway this video has been out for a while I guess but, this is the first time I've heard anything about it.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=oXiCMD_8udI&feature=related
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Old 07-12-2008, 01:35 AM    (permalink
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The day Crayton was on, I thought it was pretty funny that the very first clip they showed of him was him dropping that screen pass vs the Giants in the playoffs, and asked him what was going through his mind lol...I got the feeling he wasn't expecting it either because he didn't have the greatest answer and felt uncomfortable looking at it again lol...Hopefully all of it motivates him to improve on last year.
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Old 07-13-2008, 03:44 AM    (permalink
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By AdamJT13 from the Cowboyzone:

Top Shutdown Cornerbacks of 2007 (putting K.C. Joyner's stats to better use)
I've said for a while that ESPN.com's K.C. Joyner is useful for compiling statistics but doesn't always know quite how to put them to good use. For example, his cornerback "metrics" focus on the plays when a cornerback is targeted but give no credit to cornerbacks whom opponents avoid. So if the 2007 Cowboys had a game when Jacques Reeves was targeted 12 times and allowed seven catches for 81 yards, Anthony Henry was targeted six times and allowed three catches for 42 yards and Terence Newman was targeted once and allowed one catch for 8 yards, Joyner's "metrics" (YPA and SYPA) would say that Reeves performed the best and Newman performed the worst, even if they all played the same number of snaps -- or even if Reeves played the least and Newman played the most.

Clearly, though, cornerbacks have to be given credit for covering so well that opponents avoid throwing at them. One way to do this is to look at the number of yards allowed compared to the number of passes faced -- regardless of whether that cornerback was targeted. If a cornerback is on the field for 50 passes in a game, that's 50 times when the opponent could target him. If he was targeted four times and allowed two catches for 25 yards, he almost certainly performed better than if he had been targeted 16 times and allowed eight catches for 100 yards -- even though Joyner's "metrics" would say that the performances were exactly equal.

What I've done for the past few seasons is to take the raw cornerback stats compiled by Joyner (and STATS and Football Outsiders) and compare them to each player's estimated pass attempts faced, which is determined by their official playing time percentage and their team's opponents' passing attempts. The result is statistics such as each cornerback's target percentage (how frequently they were targeted when they were on the field), their "bad play" percentage (how frequently they allowed a catch or were penalized) and their yards allowed per pass attempt (not per target).

To me, the top "shutdown" cornerbacks are the guys who allow the fewest yards per pass attempt that they play. Simply looking at total yards allowed -- even for cornerbacks who play every snap of the season -- could be deceiving because one team could face fewer than 450 pass attempts, while another team could face more than 600. And if a cornerback plays 90 percent of his team's defensive snaps instead of 100 percent, that could cut his number of attempts faced by about 60 -- roughly two games' worth.

The top "shutdown" cornerbacks each season typically allow fewer than 1.0 yards per pass attempt played -- ie., fewer than 500 yards allowed on 500 pass attempts faced, or fewer than 600 yards on 600 attempts, etc. Starting last season, K.C. Joyner started counting only the targets, catches and yards when a cornerback was in "direct coverage," which results in smaller numbers for every player and especially smaller numbers for teams that play primarily zone schemes such as the Tampa 2. (The discrepancies between Joyner's "direct coverage" numbers and the totals kept by Football Outsiders and STATS typically are greater for those teams than for other teams.) Joyner also combines catches and defensive penalties to a get a total number of unsuccessful plays, combines receiving yards and net penalty yards for a total number of yards allowed and combines attempts and penalties (but not spikes) to get the number of passes against each team.

In 2007, based on Joyner's numbers and adjusted for each player's playing time and estimated pass attempts faced, 17 of the 81 cornerbacks who started at least five games allowed fewer than 1.0 yards per estimated pass play faced. The top 10 all allowed 0.93 or less. There were four who allowed 2.0 or more, and the bottom 10 all allowed 1.69 or more.

Here are the top "shutdown" cornerbacks of 2007, based on net yards allowed per estimated pass faced --

1. Ronde Barber 0.535
2. Marlin Jackson 0.618
3. Nnamdi Asomugha 0.638
4. Terence Newman 0.818
5. Charles Tillman 0.902
6. Fred Bennett 0.908
7. Will Allen 0.909
8. Carlos Rogers 0.913
9. Deshea Townsend 0.921
10. Travis Fisher 0.930

I suspect that Barber and Jackson benefitted somewhat from their teams' zone defensive schemes, which lower the number of times Joyner determines that they're in "direct coverage," as well as the length of the passes they're defending. I'll see what Football Outsiders says they allowed when their book arrives in the next week or so. (I'm still trying to get STATS' numbers from 2007.)

Here were the bottom 10 "shutdown" cornerbacks for 2007 --

72. David Barrett 1.689
73. Ike Taylor 1.737
74. Corey Ivy 1.759
75. William James 1.832
76. Chris Houston 1.901
77. Demarcus Faggins 1.925
78. Travis Daniels 2.022
79. Lewis Sanders 2.030
80. Stanley Wilson 2.144
81. Jason David 2.562

If you're wondering, Anthony Henry ranked 44th (1.285), and Jacques Reeves ranked 69th (1.632).

Some other notable cornerbacks -- Charles Woodson 12th (0.959), Shawn Springs 18th (1.000), DeAngelo Hall 21st (1.016), Champ Bailey 28th (1.115), Asante Samuel 31st (1.14), Sheldon Brown 33rd (1.147), Marcus Trufant 38th (1.212), Al Harris 49th (1.378) and Lito Sheppard 67th (1.601).

While Jacques Reeves was nicknamed "The Human Target" by Football Outsiders because of his overall target percentage, Joyner's numbers show that several other players were targeted a higher percentage of the time that they were on the field. Reeves was targeted on 20.6 percent of his estimated pass plays faced, which ranked 75th (seventh-worst) out of 81. The highest target percentage was Fakhir Brown's 21.7 percent. Lito Sheppard and Anthony Henry both finished just outside the bottom 10, at 19.7 percent and 19.5 percent, respectively. Marcus Trufant had the most total targets, 111, and was 67th in target percentage (19.1).

The lowest target percentages belonged to Marlin Jackson (8.7), Nnamdi Asomugha (9.1) and Ronde Barber (10.9). Again, I suspect that Jackson's and Barber's coverage schemes and Joyner's "direct coverage" standards lowered their numbers. Newman finished with the 13th-lowest target percentage, 13.5 percent.

Some other notes about Joyner's numbers adjusted for playing time and attempts --

-- Newman allowed only 9.8 yards per catch/defensive penalty, which was the fourth-best. As noted above, his yards allowed per estimated pass play also was the fourth-best, at 0.818. So even with injuries all season, he still was one of the top shutdown cornerbacks in the league. In Joyner's main metric, yards allowed per target (he calls it YPA), Newman was ninth-best (6.07). In SYPA (success percentage times yards per target), Newman was 22nd, which is still quite good, but he gets dragged down by his success percentage (a below-average 62.1). Whether it was because of his foot injuries or Wade Phillips' softer coverages, Newman was targeted a little more (not much, as he still was 13th-best in target percentage) and allowed a higher percentage of successful short passes than he typically does. But the overall result was yet another "shutdown" season for Newman.

-- Asomugha had by far the lowest "unsuccessful play" ratio, with one catch or defensive penalty every 29.4 pass attempts he faced (the next-best was 17.7). But he had one of the highest yards allowed per unsuccessful play -- 18.8, which ranked 79th out of 81. So he was almost never targeted or beaten, but when he was beaten, he often gave up big chunks of yardage.

-- Carlos Rogers played only seven games but put up some good numbers (eighth-best in yards allowed per estimated pass play). Like Asomugha, he also gave up some big chunks of yardage when he was beaten -- he was 75th in yards allowed per catch/defensive penalty (16.2).

Of course, none of these stats should be considered precise, as Joyner's numbers are subjective and will differ from those compiled by Football Outsiders and STATS, and the number of pass plays faced is merely an estimate based on the team's total and the player's playing time percentage. And as with any stats, each player's numbers are at least partly affected by his assignments, his teammates, the quality of his opponents, etc. But I think they're a pretty good start for making better use of Joyner's numbers than what he does with them.
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Old 07-14-2008, 12:34 PM    (permalink
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Via rotoworld:

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The Cowboys are "very close" to finalizing a multi-year contract with franchise player Ken Hamlin, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
For some perspective on what the terms may be, Troy Polamalu signed a five-year, $33 million deal in July of 2007 and Bob Sanders got five years, $37.5 million from Indianapolis last December. Hamlin isn't quite as good as those two, but a $30 million extension through 2012 might be a reasonable price tag.
source: http://startelegram.typepad.com/cowb...ys-hamlin.html
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Old 07-14-2008, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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That's what I was coming to post, good news, and again judging from where we should be on the cap we have the room to sign Canty and Hamlin both so I don't think its a 1 guy or the other type deal...Signing Hamlin to a deal right now instead of him signing the Tag tender would free up more cap space anyway, because he would be making less this yr then he would with the tag applied.


I expect it to be done before Training Camp, and Canty to be signed before the season is out.
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Old 07-14-2008, 04:34 PM    (permalink
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Hamlin is also gonna be on the Jim Rome show for anybody that's at home, I'm gonna catch it and see what they talk about.
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Old 07-14-2008, 06:25 PM    (permalink
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Hamlin only has until tomorrow to get the long-term deal done. That's the deadline...so, it has to get done. I'm sure it will because, it sounds almost done.
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Old 07-14-2008, 06:35 PM    (permalink
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Crayton was only signed for four years, 14 million, I challenge anybody to find a WR on their second contract who has produced the way Crayton has as a 7th rd pick and makes less then that, that contract is literally scraps, how could anybody not be happy about that? I agree I wanted Hardy to, but your telling me you would of preferred we saved the pennies from that contract and let him walk, and be looking at TO, Hurd as a 2, and Austin as a 3? That's asking a bit much considering Austin hasn't shown up consistently in a real game.
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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I still think Driver is making more on the overall deal, I believe both were four years and Driver's was 17 million with Crayton's being 14 million, also Crayton makes 1 million this year and Driver makes 3...But that was more due to the fact that Driver was 31 when he signed his deal and Crayton was 27.


It's still close enough, point being you won't find too many :) And I'll take on Crayton's 1 million dollar salary for 800 yds and 7 TD's anyday.
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:07 PM    (permalink
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I saw Kerry Rhodes signed for 5 years and 33.5 mil. on his recent contract (end of last season?)

IMO Hamlin shouldn't get a dime more than this. Just because the raiders overpaid for Wilson doesn't mean we should overpay for Hamlin. Anything over 34 mil for Hamlin is overpaying and I'm not even sure he should get that much. IMO Kerry Rhodes is a bit better than Ken and the pay should reflect that.

I'll be really upset if we jeopardize signing Canty long term for this.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:01 PM    (permalink
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I believe that Hamlin will NOT get a long term deal and be forced to sign the one year franchise tender. I'm fine with this as long as it leads to a long term deal for Canty. Additionally, this will light a fire under Hamlin's butt to get it done again this year.

One other thought, I would take Ware getting a long term deal over both Canty & Hamlin anyday.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:27 PM    (permalink
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Nah, I think Jerry wants a deal done for Hamlin and it's going to get done one way or another, he's not afraid to take it up to the deadline if he has too...And again, we have room for both guys so I don't know why everybody thinks its 1 or the other, we had to take priorities first and lock up some other guys, but Canty won't be going anywhere...Just because he will be last in line to get a deal worked out, doesn't mean the contracts ahead of him will restrict him from getting signed, we never let young talent walk away without locking them up, I'm not worried one bit.
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Old 07-15-2008, 04:39 AM    (permalink
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im with leroy on this one. Ware is far more important than the others.
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Old 07-15-2008, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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Yes he is but, there is absolutely no way we lose Ware. So you shouldnt even really be worrying about that.
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Old 07-15-2008, 10:54 AM    (permalink
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Again via rotoworld

Quote:
ESPN's John Clayton seconds a Fort Worth Star-Telegram report that Dallas is close to reaching a long-term deal with franchise player Ken Hamlin.
Clayton says the contract will be for six years and keep Hamlin in Dallas until his career is over. It's probably in the $36-$40 million range. Hamlin's agent is currently in Big D hammering out details with owner Jerry Jones
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clu...FL&majteam=daL
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Old 07-15-2008, 12:26 PM    (permalink
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im with leroy on this one. Ware is far more important than the others.
Come on guys, Ware's contract isn't up for what another 2 years? Do you really think Jerry is that asinine to not afford Ware? I mean seriously, Ware shouldn't even be worth worrying about, he will be re-signed, some of you guys worry way too much...Again, if you can think of just one young talented player we have ever had, that we didn't resign, then feel free to worry, but Ware is the best defensive player we have had in 10 years, is the model citizen and never misses a game, he will retire a Cowboy more then likely, and it's just silly to be "worried" about it...You guys act like if we re-sign a few guys this year, that means we cannot sign anybody else 2 years from now, give it some time, teams don't let the best defensive player walk away, guys who have been following our team for some time know this isn't even an issue.
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Old 07-15-2008, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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Come on guys, Ware's contract isn't up for what another 2 years? Do you really think Jerry is that asinine to not afford Ware? I mean seriously, Ware shouldn't even be worth worrying about, he will be re-signed, some of you guys worry way too much...Again, if you can think of just one young talented player we have ever had, that we didn't resign, then feel free to worry, but Ware is the best defensive player we have had in 10 years, is the model citizen and never misses a game, he will retire a Cowboy more then likely, and it's just silly to be "worried" about it...You guys act like if we re-sign a few guys this year, that means we cannot sign anybody else 2 years from now, give it some time, teams don't let the best defensive player walk away, guys who have been following our team for some time know this isn't even an issue.
Thank you for being the voice of reason :)
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Old 07-15-2008, 11:33 PM    (permalink
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By AdamJT13 from the Cowboyzone:

Top Shutdown Cornerbacks of 2007 (putting K.C. Joyner's stats to better use)
I've said for a while that ESPN.com's K.C. Joyner is useful for compiling statistics but doesn't always know quite how to put them to good use. For example, his cornerback "metrics" focus on the plays when a cornerback is targeted but give no credit to cornerbacks whom opponents avoid. So if the 2007 Cowboys had a game when Jacques Reeves was targeted 12 times and allowed seven catches for 81 yards, Anthony Henry was targeted six times and allowed three catches for 42 yards and Terence Newman was targeted once and allowed one catch for 8 yards, Joyner's "metrics" (YPA and SYPA) would say that Reeves performed the best and Newman performed the worst, even if they all played the same number of snaps -- or even if Reeves played the least and Newman played the most.

Clearly, though, cornerbacks have to be given credit for covering so well that opponents avoid throwing at them. One way to do this is to look at the number of yards allowed compared to the number of passes faced -- regardless of whether that cornerback was targeted. If a cornerback is on the field for 50 passes in a game, that's 50 times when the opponent could target him. If he was targeted four times and allowed two catches for 25 yards, he almost certainly performed better than if he had been targeted 16 times and allowed eight catches for 100 yards -- even though Joyner's "metrics" would say that the performances were exactly equal.

What I've done for the past few seasons is to take the raw cornerback stats compiled by Joyner (and STATS and Football Outsiders) and compare them to each player's estimated pass attempts faced, which is determined by their official playing time percentage and their team's opponents' passing attempts. The result is statistics such as each cornerback's target percentage (how frequently they were targeted when they were on the field), their "bad play" percentage (how frequently they allowed a catch or were penalized) and their yards allowed per pass attempt (not per target).

To me, the top "shutdown" cornerbacks are the guys who allow the fewest yards per pass attempt that they play. Simply looking at total yards allowed -- even for cornerbacks who play every snap of the season -- could be deceiving because one team could face fewer than 450 pass attempts, while another team could face more than 600. And if a cornerback plays 90 percent of his team's defensive snaps instead of 100 percent, that could cut his number of attempts faced by about 60 -- roughly two games' worth.

The top "shutdown" cornerbacks each season typically allow fewer than 1.0 yards per pass attempt played -- ie., fewer than 500 yards allowed on 500 pass attempts faced, or fewer than 600 yards on 600 attempts, etc. Starting last season, K.C. Joyner started counting only the targets, catches and yards when a cornerback was in "direct coverage," which results in smaller numbers for every player and especially smaller numbers for teams that play primarily zone schemes such as the Tampa 2. (The discrepancies between Joyner's "direct coverage" numbers and the totals kept by Football Outsiders and STATS typically are greater for those teams than for other teams.) Joyner also combines catches and defensive penalties to a get a total number of unsuccessful plays, combines receiving yards and net penalty yards for a total number of yards allowed and combines attempts and penalties (but not spikes) to get the number of passes against each team.

In 2007, based on Joyner's numbers and adjusted for each player's playing time and estimated pass attempts faced, 17 of the 81 cornerbacks who started at least five games allowed fewer than 1.0 yards per estimated pass play faced. The top 10 all allowed 0.93 or less. There were four who allowed 2.0 or more, and the bottom 10 all allowed 1.69 or more.

Here are the top "shutdown" cornerbacks of 2007, based on net yards allowed per estimated pass faced --

1. Ronde Barber 0.535
2. Marlin Jackson 0.618
3. Nnamdi Asomugha 0.638
4. Terence Newman 0.818
5. Charles Tillman 0.902
6. Fred Bennett 0.908
7. Will Allen 0.909
8. Carlos Rogers 0.913
9. Deshea Townsend 0.921
10. Travis Fisher 0.930

I suspect that Barber and Jackson benefitted somewhat from their teams' zone defensive schemes, which lower the number of times Joyner determines that they're in "direct coverage," as well as the length of the passes they're defending. I'll see what Football Outsiders says they allowed when their book arrives in the next week or so. (I'm still trying to get STATS' numbers from 2007.)

Here were the bottom 10 "shutdown" cornerbacks for 2007 --

72. David Barrett 1.689
73. Ike Taylor 1.737
74. Corey Ivy 1.759
75. William James 1.832
76. Chris Houston 1.901
77. Demarcus Faggins 1.925
78. Travis Daniels 2.022
79. Lewis Sanders 2.030
80. Stanley Wilson 2.144
81. Jason David 2.562

If you're wondering, Anthony Henry ranked 44th (1.285), and Jacques Reeves ranked 69th (1.632).

Some other notable cornerbacks -- Charles Woodson 12th (0.959), Shawn Springs 18th (1.000), DeAngelo Hall 21st (1.016), Champ Bailey 28th (1.115), Asante Samuel 31st (1.14), Sheldon Brown 33rd (1.147), Marcus Trufant 38th (1.212), Al Harris 49th (1.378) and Lito Sheppard 67th (1.601).

While Jacques Reeves was nicknamed "The Human Target" by Football Outsiders because of his overall target percentage, Joyner's numbers show that several other players were targeted a higher percentage of the time that they were on the field. Reeves was targeted on 20.6 percent of his estimated pass plays faced, which ranked 75th (seventh-worst) out of 81. The highest target percentage was Fakhir Brown's 21.7 percent. Lito Sheppard and Anthony Henry both finished just outside the bottom 10, at 19.7 percent and 19.5 percent, respectively. Marcus Trufant had the most total targets, 111, and was 67th in target percentage (19.1).

The lowest target percentages belonged to Marlin Jackson (8.7), Nnamdi Asomugha (9.1) and Ronde Barber (10.9). Again, I suspect that Jackson's and Barber's coverage schemes and Joyner's "direct coverage" standards lowered their numbers. Newman finished with the 13th-lowest target percentage, 13.5 percent.

Some other notes about Joyner's numbers adjusted for playing time and attempts --

-- Newman allowed only 9.8 yards per catch/defensive penalty, which was the fourth-best. As noted above, his yards allowed per estimated pass play also was the fourth-best, at 0.818. So even with injuries all season, he still was one of the top shutdown cornerbacks in the league. In Joyner's main metric, yards allowed per target (he calls it YPA), Newman was ninth-best (6.07). In SYPA (success percentage times yards per target), Newman was 22nd, which is still quite good, but he gets dragged down by his success percentage (a below-average 62.1). Whether it was because of his foot injuries or Wade Phillips' softer coverages, Newman was targeted a little more (not much, as he still was 13th-best in target percentage) and allowed a higher percentage of successful short passes than he typically does. But the overall result was yet another "shutdown" season for Newman.

-- Asomugha had by far the lowest "unsuccessful play" ratio, with one catch or defensive penalty every 29.4 pass attempts he faced (the next-best was 17.7). But he had one of the highest yards allowed per unsuccessful play -- 18.8, which ranked 79th out of 81. So he was almost never targeted or beaten, but when he was beaten, he often gave up big chunks of yardage.

-- Carlos Rogers played only seven games but put up some good numbers (eighth-best in yards allowed per estimated pass play). Like Asomugha, he also gave up some big chunks of yardage when he was beaten -- he was 75th in yards allowed per catch/defensive penalty (16.2).

Of course, none of these stats should be considered precise, as Joyner's numbers are subjective and will differ from those compiled by Football Outsiders and STATS, and the number of pass plays faced is merely an estimate based on the team's total and the player's playing time percentage. And as with any stats, each player's numbers are at least partly affected by his assignments, his teammates, the quality of his opponents, etc. But I think they're a pretty good start for making better use of Joyner's numbers than what he does with them.
That may have been the coolest thing I have ever read on a message board. I don't really want to take the time to go into depth on these numbers, but this guy just articulated every single problem I have ever had with Joyner's numbers and re-evaluated them exactly like I have always thought they should be. Bravo. Bra-f***ing-vo.
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Old 07-16-2008, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
Come on guys, Ware's contract isn't up for what another 2 years? Do you really think Jerry is that asinine to not afford Ware? I mean seriously, Ware shouldn't even be worth worrying about, he will be re-signed, some of you guys worry way too much...Again, if you can think of just one young talented player we have ever had, that we didn't resign, then feel free to worry, but Ware is the best defensive player we have had in 10 years, is the model citizen and never misses a game, he will retire a Cowboy more then likely, and it's just silly to be "worried" about it...You guys act like if we re-sign a few guys this year, that means we cannot sign anybody else 2 years from now, give it some time, teams don't let the best defensive player walk away, guys who have been following our team for some time know this isn't even an issue.
Ditto. JJ is great at keeping performers. The Hamlin deal is further proof from this offseason. We are head for a good year. Pretty exciting being a CBoy fan here in South Florida with all the (dead) Dolphin fannies.
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Old 07-16-2008, 07:57 PM    (permalink
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HMMMMMM anybody else? ^^^^
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Old 07-17-2008, 08:40 PM    (permalink
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The draft pick signings have begun. Orlando Scandrik signed a 4yr $1.85mi deal today.
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