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Old 05-20-2007, 09:54 PM    (permalink
Moses
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Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 View Post
Cause there are 15 other teams and the Packers aren't exactly overwhelming with talent. For as diplomatic as some of us talk around here I think that people sometimes underestimate how big of a gap there still is between the Bears and everyone else in the North. There is the wild card, but there are only 2 of them, and 12 teams vying for them. I wouldn't take a 1/6 odds under any circumstance.
Packers are 4:1 to win the NFC North according to BoDog Sportsbook.

On paper, I think the Packers are close to the Bears in terms of talent. Also, the Packers are in a position in which they haven't lost anything and have gained players and their young players are getting better.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:00 PM    (permalink
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Packers are 4:1 to win the NFC North according to BoDog Sportsbook.

On paper, I think the Packers are close to the Bears in terms of talent. Also, the Packers are in a position in which they haven't lost anything and have gained players and their young players are getting better.
A couple of things.

1)As I edited in my previous post, 4:1 odds isn't that great. The Bears are 4:1 odds to get back to the Superbowl. That's versus 15 other teams. The Bucs are 4:1 odds to win the NFC South. The Falcons are 3:1 odds.

2)The Packers haven't lost anything? Your leading rusher and your best tight end aren't anything? Yes, David Martin is better than Bubba Franks. That might not be saying much but it's true.

3)The young players are only getting better? I'm assuming that you are basing the 4 game swing as your basis of comparison. That might be ok for a chat board but it's not a good way to make a line.

4)I think most people would disagree with the notion that the Bears and Packers are close in talent. I'll give you QB. That's about it. WR and D-Line are close. Linebacker could be if Briggs is MIA.

There's a reason why the Bears are still big favorites again. A 50% odds is crazy. I don't know what other stats I can pull up to show that.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 View Post
A couple of things.

1)As I edited in my previous post, 4:1 odds isn't that great. The Bears are 4:1 odds to get back to the Superbowl. That's versus 15 other teams. The Bucs are 4:1 odds to win the NFC South. The Falcons are 3:1 odds.

2)The Packers haven't lost anything? Your leading rusher and your best tight end aren't anything? Yes, David Martin is better than Bubba Franks. That might not be saying much but it's true.

3)The young players are only getting better? I'm assuming that you are basing the 4 game swing as your basis of comparison. That might be ok for a chat board but it's not a good way to make a line.

4)I think most people would disagree with the notion that the Bears and Packers are close in talent. I'll give you QB. That's about it. WR and D-Line are close. Linebacker could be if Briggs is MIA.

There's a reason why the Bears are still big favorites again. A 50% odds is crazy. I don't know what other stats I can pull up to show that.
Ahman Green is a great player (one of my favourites) but he is replaceable, especially with his injury history. Jackson/Morency are both capable backs and I think they'll have no trouble filling the void left by Green.

David Martin is nothing special and he won't be missed very much. I personally didn't feel he was the best TE on the roster but that's debatable. He's very similar to Donald Lee and I doubt the Packers will miss him.

Younger players typically do get better after a few seasons. Why wouldn't they? More experience, more coaching, etc. = better player.

Barnett, Hawk, Jenkins, Williams, Cole, Poppinga, Hodge, Blackmon, Dendy, Collins, Culver, Underwood, etc. are all young defensive guys with only a few years experience. Plus, this is their second season under McCarthy. Players always struggle when learning new schemes. The offensive guys include Morency, Herron, Miree, Martin, Jennings, Colledge, Spitz, Moll, Wells, and a whole slew of WRs. There are so many young guys that are going to be a year better. The Packers biggest improvement from last season will be their young players being a year older.

Where are the Bears head and shoulders above the Packers?
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:19 PM    (permalink
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You're assuming that they are going to be better just because they are young. For every guy that develops there are are 2-3 that don't. That's the nature of football.

As for where the Bears are better, did you watch last season? We went to the Superbowl. You won 8 games. I'm really not being flippant here either, I'm being serious. It's not as if it was even close.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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NFC North Standings-
1.. Green Bay
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings

you never know...
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:23 PM    (permalink
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I think the Browns can be a surprise team this year. I like what they have done to improve their O-Line and if one of their QB's can step up and play good then they will have tons of weapons on offense. Mix that with an pretty good secondary and they could surprise.

And of course the Packers are bound to surprise ;)
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:26 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 View Post
You're assuming that they are going to be better just because they are young. For every guy that develops there are are 2-3 that don't. That's the nature of football.

As for where the Bears are better, did you watch last season? We went to the Superbowl. You won 8 games. I'm really not being flippant here either, I'm being serious. It's not as if it was even close.
How many young players get worse? Do you honestly think the Packers are going to regress because A.J. Hawk, Greg Jennings, Cullen Jenkins, etc. are going to all of a sudden become terrible instead of getting better?

I'm not talking about last year. I'm talking about talent. Where are the Bears a lot better? What positions? Why are the Bears going to roll over the Packers next year and it won't be close?
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:34 PM    (permalink
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I never said it wouldn't be close. I said 50% odds is insane for a team that was 8-8 and is a 4:1 odds in reality. You're just being a homer dude.

If I said, the Bears have a 50% chance of getting back to the Superbowl, or a Bucs fans said they had a 50% of winning the division they would be laughed off of here. I don't care what hypotheticals you throw in there. It's a dumb thing to say.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:36 PM    (permalink
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I never said it wouldn't be close. I said 50% odds is insane for a team that was 8-8 and is a 4:1 odds in reality. You're just being a homer dude.
I'm not an oddsmaker nor do I claim to be. I have no idea what a realistic line would be.

You're just dancing around my questions about why the Bears are such a better team and it's not even close? Talent-wise, they are close.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:39 PM    (permalink
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I'm not an oddsmaker nor do I claim to be. I have no idea what a realistic line would be.

You're just dancing around my questions about why the Bears are such a better team and it's not even close? Talent-wise, they are close.
Go to the Bears-Packers thread. I'm not posting the same thing again. And I don't dance around anything.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:41 PM    (permalink
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Go to the Bears-Packers thread. I'm not posting the same thing again. And I don't dance around anything.
I didn't see anywhere where you showed that the Bears were clearly on a whole different level than the Packers. Maybe I missed it, so just copy and paste to this thread.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:42 PM    (permalink
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I didn't see anywhere where you showed that the Bears were clearly on a whole different level than the Packers. Maybe I missed it, so just copy and paste to this thread.
7-2 Chicago beats Green Bay on postional rankings for 51'. I have 6 Chicago, 2 push, and 1 to Green Bay.
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Despite looking better against an underachieving Eagles team, I still think the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I smell a blowout victory by the Lions this week and a division sweep.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:48 PM    (permalink
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7-2 Chicago beats Green Bay on postional rankings for 51'. I have 6 Chicago, 2 push, and 1 to Green Bay.
Right, but how many of those are very close? There's only a few that go for sure to Green Bay or Chicago.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:55 PM    (permalink
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Right, but how many of those are very close? There's only a few that go for sure to Green Bay or Chicago.
Yeah probably. Add it all up and there's your differential. I'm not saying the Packers aren't potentially gaining on the Bears. The system is set up for that to happen. The Bears should have caught the Packers well before 2005 but we had Dave Wandsteadt as our coach and some of the worst personel in the game.

As for the development of your players, Hawk looks like a gem, as I think most expected him to be. The rest of them are still by and large question marks. You rate them higher because they are your own players, but for every one that turns into something good there will be 3-4 that do nothing. That's why teams don't turn around overnight. The Bears have more sure-fire pillars to build around under the age of 30, and that's why it's still hard to project anyone overtaking them at this point. Could it happen? Of course, I don't think anyone is denying that, but it's certainly not likely or probable.
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Old 05-20-2007, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Yeah probably. Add it all up and there's your differential. I'm not saying the Packers aren't potentially gaining on the Bears. The system is set up for that to happen. The Bears should have caught the Packers well before 2005 but we had Dave Wandsteadt as our coach and some of the worst personel in the game.

As for the development of your players, Hawk looks like a gem, as I think most expected him to be. The rest of them are still by and large question marks. You rate them higher because they are your own players, but for every one that turns into something good there will be 3-4 that do nothing. That's why teams don't turn around overnight.
I'm talking about young players that have already done something though. Not rookies, or unproven players. Hawk is going to get better (already a top LB). Jennings is going to get better (could have hit 1000 yards last year had he not gotten hurt). Collins looked great the last couple games. Jenkins is another guy who really stepped up when given the chance. I'm just saying that these aren't guys who are likely going to "bust" now. They've shown what they can do. It's now just a game of how great will they be and how long will it take them to get there.

I agree with you that the Bears are a better team right now. That said, I don't think it's a huge margin of difference and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either team win the NFC North. I wouldn't even be surprised if the Vikings won the NFC North. It's a close division and a lot more wide open than people think.
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Old 05-21-2007, 12:06 AM    (permalink
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KC goes 13-3 and wins it all!!!!!!!!!
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Old 05-21-2007, 12:09 AM    (permalink
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IDK but I have a feeling that Minnesota will contend for the NFC North title this season, and Chicago falls off dramatically by losing Thomas Jones and Lance Briggs for the majority of the season, not to mention nothing has really been brought in to help Rex Grossman. I also have Arizona contending along with San Francisco coming out.
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Old 05-21-2007, 12:12 AM    (permalink
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IDK but I have a feeling that Minnesota will contend for the NFC North title this season, and Chicago falls off dramatically by losing Thomas Jones and Lance Briggs for the majority of the season, not to mention nothing has really been brought in to help Rex Grossman. I also have Arizona contending along with San Francisco coming out.
Who should they have brought in? We spent two first day picks on offensive guys and are moving Hester over as well. I'm not saying more offensive weapons wouldn't hurt, but I'm curious who was available that you think would be much of an upgrade.
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Old 05-21-2007, 12:47 AM    (permalink
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I'm probably going to regret this pick, but I like the Lions this season. Probably no playoffs, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see them go 8-8.

I see the Jets snagging a Wild Card spot, and I'll take the Falcons to win their division.

Those are all the predictions I'm making right now.
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Old 05-21-2007, 01:29 AM    (permalink
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Lions are my NFC pick, Texans being the AFC pick for me. If I nail either I look like a genius, and odds are no one will remember if I am wrong on both counts.
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Old 05-21-2007, 02:25 AM    (permalink
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the falcons can suprise people if there d stay healthy
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Old 05-21-2007, 02:43 AM    (permalink
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I could see a a surprise season for buffalo coming up, if J.P keeps improving and he has a better line than last year. I like most of their additions on offence.... however the defensive losses scare me, i think they could put it together and make a little run, playoffs are just a nice thought at this point... actually 9 wins is a nice though..
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Old 05-21-2007, 03:09 AM    (permalink
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ill go team who will be a disappointment: the Tennessee titans. i just think they didnt do anything in free agency or the draft to help out there tea,, especially with all that momentum from last year

it hurts me too say it becasue there my second favorite team
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Old 05-21-2007, 03:15 AM    (permalink
sweetness34
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Hmmm you know what I'm going to take the Buffalo Bills. Don't ask me why because I really don't have any idea, but I'm picking them.

Oh and in the NFC. Hmmmm, I'll go with the Rams. Generic I know but I don't like any of the other teams to really step up.
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Despite looking better against an underachieving Eagles team, I still think the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I smell a blowout victory by the Lions this week and a division sweep.
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Old 05-21-2007, 03:19 AM    (permalink
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nfc= arizona cardinals
afc= dolphins
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