If nothing else give Indy credit for knowing when to be really bad at just the right time. After landing the top overall pick the years John Elway and Peyton Manning were coming out of college, the Colts once again hit the quarterback jackpot with Stanford’s Andrew Luck. There are no sure things in the NFL Draft but Luck is about as close as it gets. In fact, there are many who feel Luck is the best quarterback prospect to come along in decades. Not only does Luck have the size, arm strength, accuracy and athleticism that you look for but his intangibles such as intelligence, leadership ability, work ethic and pedigree are off the charts.
In many ways Luck is the LeBron James of the NFL Draft and he is the type of rare prospect who can completely change the fortunes of an organization. Indy felt comfortable jettisoning Peyton Manning because Luck was waiting in the wings and he should be the cornerstone of the franchise for the next ten to fifteen years. There is a contingent in the media with Baylor QB Robert Griffin III ranked ahead of Luck but that certainly isn’t the case in league circles. Luck is going to be the #1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and rightfully so.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (f/STL): ROBERT GRIFFIN III, QB, BAYLOR
It has been a foregone conclusion that ”RG3” was going to be the second overall pick for quite some time, it was simply a matter of determining which team would pull the trigger on a trade with the Rams. In the end it came down to Cleveland and Washington, with the Redskins offer of a first and second round pick this year as well as first round picks in both 2013 and 2014 coming out on top. Many were shocked to see Washington give up so much, but at the end of the day it’s impossible to overpay for a stud quarterback. Baylor’s Robert Griffin III is a dynamic playmaker with the ability to beat teams with either his arm or legs and could have the type of pro career that Michael
Vick was supposed to. Not only is Griffin an outstanding athlete with a rare skill set for the position but he also earns very high marks for his intangibles such as maturity, intelligence, work ethic and leadership ability. There are legitimate concerns when evaluating Griffin as a pro prospect, most notably durability and the need to adjust to a pro style system, but Griffin appears to have all the tools to be a franchise signal caller and in most year’s he'd be the clear-cut top overall pick.
It looks like this choice is going to come down to either USC OT Matt Kalil or L.S.U. CB Morris Claiborne, but if the Vikings pass on a franchise left tackle to protect their fragile quarterback it would be a mistake. Sure the Vikings have to face Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford twice each year but a team could have Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis and those guys are going to hurt you through the air. However, if Christian Ponder doesn’t work out it will surely cost the coaching staff their jobs and the front office heads may roll as well. The bottom line is quality cornerbacks can be found later in the draft, especially for teams that run a zone scheme like Minnesota, but true blue-chip blindside protectors like Kalil only come along once every five years or so. Kalil, whose brother Ryan plays for the Carolina Panthers
and is one of the leagues premier centers, isn’t a finished product but he possesses both the physical tools and intangibles to eventually rank among the leagues five best players at his position and that would make him one of the most valuable players in the game. Claiborne is a fine player and would certainly address a need as well, but considering how much is riding on the success or failure of Ponder it’s hard to imagine the Vikings passing on Kalil. Then again, there is a reason they are picking in the Top 3 overall…
Normally it would be prudent to steer clear of running backs this early because productive runners can be found all throughout the draft. With that said if there was ever an exception to that rule it’s Alabama’s Trent Richardson, who is the best prospect to come along at the position since Adrian Peterson. A super competitive workhorse who is also a terrific pass catcher and blocker, Richardson has shown the ability to carry a team on his back. Richardson would be a blue-chip, cornerstone building block and that is something in very short supply in Cleveland these days. The Browns have to face the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals multiple times each year and need to be able to run the ball, control the clock and alleviate the pressure on Colt McCoy and that anemic passing attack, especially late in the season. After falling short in their attempt to trade up for
Baylor QB Robert Girffin III, the Browns would be wise to surround McCoy with as much talent as possible and then if things don’t work out this fall they will have a stronger supporting cast to help whoever they bring in to be their franchise signal caller next offseason. L.S.U. CB Morris Claiborne, Oklahoma St. WR Justin Blackmon and perhaps Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill are technically in the mix as well but none would have as big an impact on the organization as Richardson, who will emerge as one of the leagues premier running backs in short order.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: MORRIS CLAIBORNE, CB, L.S.U.
This is one of those instances where 1 + 1 = 2. With Ronde Barber nearing the end of his career and Aqib Talib’s future with the team in doubt due to legal issues, the Bucs could use a top-flight cornerback like Morris Claiborne of L.S.U. Oh, and did I happen to mention that Tampa’s new defensive backs coach just happened to be the secondary coach in Baton Rouge the past few years? Claiborne isn't as freakish of a physical specimen as former teammate Patrick Peterson but he does possess prototypical size and speed and might be a better pure cover man. At times Claiborne was overshadowed by flashy teammate Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu, but the rangy, super athletic Claiborne has always been considered to be the superior
pro prospect in the eyes of scouts. If Claiborne is gone the Buccaneers would more than likely turn their attention to Alabama RB Trent Richardson, who would bolster a rushing attack that ranked third from last in the league last season. If both Claiborne and Richardson are gone that will mean USC OT Matt Kalil fell into their laps and the Trojan blocker would certainly represent a major upgrade over Jeremy Trueblood on the right side of the line. Tampa Bay really can’t go wrong, but Claiborne would be the best fit.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (f/WAS): JUSTIN BLACKMON, WR, OKLAHOMA ST.
The Rams got a king’s ransom for trading down from #2 and are now set up to add a lot of premium young talent the next few years. However, their top priority should be finding Sam Bradford a legitimate weapon to throw to which is why Oklahoma St. WR Justin Blackmon falling into their laps is probably the ideal scenario. Blackmon may not be in the quite the same class as guys like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green but he is a super competitive, physical wideout with good size and reliable hands in the mold of Anquan Boldin and should be a low-end #1 target at the next level.
St. Louis has also shown some interest in Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, who could be an option if the team traded down again. If Blackmon is gone the Rams would probably nab Alabama RB Trent Richardson at this point since Steven Jackson is getting older and has a lot of mileage on his tires. There have been some rumblings that Mississippi St. DT Fletcher Cox could be a real possibility as well and the Rams could certainly use a disruptive, impact presence like that on the interior of their defensive line, but Blackmon seems to make the most sense.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: MELVIN INGRAM, DE, SOUTH CAROLINA
This is definitely the most difficult choice to project in the Top 10 because not only are the Jaguars notoriously unpredictable on Draft Day but the talent available at this point doesn’t seem to match up with their greatest areas of need. Unless Oklahoma St. WR Justin Blackmon unexpectedly falls... Jacksonville has huge holes at wide receiver and defensive end but while Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd and North Carolina’s Quinton Coples are worthy of this lofty pick talent-wise they each have character concerns that will likely eliminate them from contention for Jacksonville’s conservative GM Gene Smith. Ideally the Jags would like to trade down a bit and if someone has their heart set on Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill this would be the spot to target since the Dolphins seem poised to select the Aggie signal caller with the very next pick. However, as always there are far more teams that want to move down than up so Jacksonville may be stuck and forced to pull the trigger. South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram could project to
either defensive end or outside linebacker at the next level and despite a lack of ideal length (height / arms) is arguably the most dangerous pass rusher in this class. The Jaguars are also reportedly high on South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore, who like Ingram would be a reach in the Top 10. It’s been a while since Smith has done what was expected on Draft Day so don’t rule out another shocker like Mississippi St. DT Fletcher Cox, Alabama S Mark Barron, Boston College LB Luke Kuechly or Iowa OT Riley Reiff. This pick is a mock buster!!!
To say this offseason hasn’t gone as planned for the Dolphins would be an understatement. Miami was rebuffed by both Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn and was forced to settle on David Garrard, who wasn’t even in the league last year, as a stop-gap solution at quarterback. At this point it appears as though the Dolphins are putting all of their eggs in one basket and hoping that Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill is available at #8. Some may view this as a reach but there are many teams that view Tannehill as a legitimate first round talent and he is certainly a much better prospect than Christian Ponder, who went #12 overall last year. Tannehill only compiled 19 career starts for the Aggies but that lack of experience could also be viewed as a positive because if he is already this good just imagine where he could be in two or three years. Physically Tannehill has all the tools, including prototypical size, above average athleticism and enough arm strength to make all the throws, plus his intangibles such as maturity,
intelligence, work ethic and leadership are outstanding. Also, don't underestimate the fact Dolphins Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman coached Tannehill in college. Miami could also use a pass rusher (North Carolina DE Quinton Coples), an offensive tackle (Riley Reiff of Iowa), a wide receiver (Michael Floyd of Notre Dame) and a safety (Mark Barron of Alabama) but it’s difficult to envision them passing on Tannehill and they may even explore trading up to ensure they get their guy.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: FLETCHER COX, DT, MISSISSIPPI ST.
Just a year ago the Panthers invested two premium draft picks on Terrell McClain and Sione Fua and they were supposed to solve Carolina’s issues at defensive tackle. Unfortunately the Panthers finished near the bottom of the league in rushing defense again last season and the duo of McClain / Fua combined for just a single sack. It’s too early to give up on those two youngsters, but it’s also clear that Carolina needs to add another disruptive presence to the middle of their defensive line. Every year there is a player who is very highly thought of in league and scouting circles that the media and draftniks underrate and this time around it’s Mississippi St. DT Fletcher Cox. A terrific athlete who tested out like a defensive end in a defensive tackles body,
including running a 4.79 forty at 298 pounds, Cox would be a perfect fit as a three-technique in Carolina and would give the team a legitimate pass rush threat on the interior. North Carolina DE Quinton Coples is also said to be a very strong option for the hometown Panthers with this choice, especially if they feel he can be another Julius Peppers. As a darkhorse do not rule out Boston College LB Luke Kuechly since Thomas Davis really can’t be counted on anymore after a string of serious injuries.
The Bills are another team that tends to march to the beat of their own drummer on Draft Day and GM Buddy Nix has done a good job of hiding his true intentions during this process. The obvious need is at left tackle but USC’s Matt Kalil will undoubtedly be long gone by this point and the Top 10 is probably too early for Iowa’s Riley Reiff. With that being the case don’t be surprised if Buffalo opts for Alabama S Mark Barron, who a number of teams are targeting and seems destined to come off the board earlier than most realize. Barron is far and away the top safety prospect in this class and the only consensus first round talent at the position. Not only does Barron have a nice blend of size and speed but he also earns very high marks for his football intangibles. Barron is definitely more of an in-the-box type but he has also flashed some playmaking ability and range in coverage,
a la LaRon Landry. With George Wilson on the wrong side of thirty and not exactly the picture of health, it would make sense for the Bills to bring in someone who can help cover the dynamic duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez from the division rival New England Patriots. The other most likely option would appear to be Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, although Boston College LB Luke Kuechly could make some sense as well and if Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill is still available things could get a little interesting.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: LUKE KUECHLY, ILB, BOSTON COLLEGE
Dontari Poe of Memphis would seem like a logical fit for the Chiefs and could be the nose tackle they need to anchor the middle of that odd front, but GM Scott Pioli is reportedly not enthralled with the freakish physical specimen. However, if Kansas City does indeed pass on Poe they could still upgrade one of the leagues worst run defenses up the middle with Boston College ILB Luke Kuechly. A tackling machine and one of the most productive linebackers the college game has ever seen, Kuechly possesses outstanding instincts, underrated athleticism also excels in coverage. Kuechly has drawn
favorable comparisons to everyone from Keith Brooking to James Laurinaitis and is one of the safest prospects in this entire class. With that said don’t rule out Alabama ILB Dont’a Hightower, who is probably a better fit for the 3-4 scheme that the Chiefs run. If Kansas City opts for offense here they could opt for Stanford OG David DeCastro, a tough, blue-collar blocker who might remind Pioli of a guy by the name of Logan Mankins who he selected during his old days with the Patriots.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: QUINTON COPLES, DE, NORTH CAROLINA
On talent alone North Carolina DE Quinton Coples should be off the board by this point but concerns about his work ethic and motor will likely push the Tar Heel pass rusher down the board a bit. However, don’t be surprised if Pete Carroll feels as though he can motivate and consistently get the best out of the enigmatic Coples. There is no question that Coples suffered from a case of senioritis last fall and didn’t always perform up to expectations, but the guy still managed to rack up a very respectable 24.0 Sacks and 40.5 TFL during his time in Chapel Hill. A terrific athlete with outstanding size, Coples has all
of the physical tools to be an impact player at the next level and could be a steal at this point. This is probably the floor for Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill too because despite making a moderate investment in Matt Flynn this offseason Carroll is said to be enthralled with the promising Aggie signal caller. Fletcher Cox of Mississippi St. and Michael Brockers of L.S.U. are also the type of jumbo d-lineman Seattle favors and despite adding Barrett Ruud and re-signing Leroy Hill there's a small chance Boston College LB Luke Kuechly could still be in the mix too.
Despite major issues along the offensive line it appears as though the Cardinals would pass on a blocker and grab Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd if he is still available. A big, physical wideout who is an absolute terror in the redzone, Floyd answered questions about his speed by running in the 4.4’s at the Scouting Combine and has proven capable of making plays vertically by outmuscling and outleaping opponents. There are some off-the-field issues with Floyd but Arizona probably feels as though Larry Fitzgerald, who like Floyd hails from Minnesota, can keep the former Fighting Irish star on the right track and teach him how to be a professional.
If Floyd is gone, which is possible, the Cardinals would likely turn their attention to the trenches and target guys like Iowa OT Riley Reiff, Stanford OG David DeCastro or perhaps even Georgia OT Cordy Glenn. Don’t completely rule out a guy like Melvin Ingram of South Carolina either, who could be the dynamic edge pass rusher they are currently lacking. However, all indications are that Floyd is the apple of Arizona’s eye and it certainly wouldn’t hurt to give Kevin Kolb another big-time weapon to target other than Mr. Fitzgerald.
For the longest time it seemed as though Alabama’s Mark Barron was destined to land in Big D but late in the process it became clear that the Crimson Tide safety probably wasn’t going to last this long. If Barron is indeed off the board the Cowboys will likely shift their focus to the defensive line, where they haven’t invested a premium pick in five years now. Needless to say an infusion of youth is called for. Dontari Poe of Memphis is a massive 346 pound space-eater but is also surprisingly athletic, quick and agile. Those freakish physical tools were on full display at the Scouting Combine, where Poe stunned evaluators by running a 4.98 forty yard dash and leading all attendees in the bench press
with 44 reps of 225 pounds. In addition to being able to play nose tackle in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, Poe could also see action as a five-technique in Dallas’ odd front. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones always likes to make a splash and this is the rare occasion in which a nose tackle could be classified as a “sexy pick” as Poe offers all kinds of upside. Dallas has also shown some interest in Stanford OG David DeCastro and Michael Brockers of L.S.U. would be a good fit as a five-technique huge potential as well but odds are this will be either Barron or Poe.
Throughout the years this Philly regime has shown an inclination toward selecting offensive and defensive lineman in round one, even when those positions weren’t necessarily considered to be pressing needs. The Eagles are in pretty good shape in the offensive trenches but don’t be surprised if they opt for a defensive end or defensive tackle with this choice. Syracuse DE Chandler Jones isn’t a household name but is very highly thought of in league circles and could come off the board much earlier than most expect, but certainly at some point in the first round. While not necessarily a dynamic edge rusher, Jones is basically a raw ball of clay with a large frame and long arms who can be molded into a 4-3 or 3-4 defensive end or perhaps even a 3-4 outside linebacker. Jones also has impressive bloodlines and understands what it takes to be a professional athlete, with one brother who plays for the Baltimore Ravens (Arthur Jones) and another who is a UFC fighter (Jon ”Bones” Jones).
North Carolina DE Quinton Coples would be a possibility if he slipped this far too, but while he lacks the motor that Philly prefers that isn’t an issue with Jones. The Eagles also reportedly love Mississippi St. DT Fletcher Cox, although they would have to trade up to land him, and L.S.U. DT Michael Brockers could be a possibility as well. Despite issues at safety and linebacker it doesn’t appear as though the Iggles will target either Mark Barron of Alabama or Luke Kuechly of Boston College even if they are available.
It has become clear that the Jets prefer to add a pass rushing linebacker with this selection, the only question is which one? South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram could be the favorite if available, but New York may ultimately opt for either Dont’a Hightower or Courtney Upshaw of Alabama. A jumbo ‘backer who checks in at 265 pounds, Hightower could play inside or outside at the next level and while not particularly explosive and definitely more of an in-the-box thumper he has also shown some pass rush ability off the edge.
Hightower is shooting up draft boards late in the process due in large part to outstanding intangibles after basically being a field general for the countries most talented defense and could sneak into the Top 20 overall. Upshaw is a strong possibility too though and would be a prototypical fit in Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme. Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd could also be a very intriguing option as a replacement for Plaxico Burress if available and a blocker such as Georgia OT / OG Cordy Glenn or Stanford OG David DeCastro just might be in play as well.
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