Every Saturday gives us answers, but it also creates brand-new questions for the draft cycle. Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Heat Check, where we evaluate the tape from the weekend’s action—cutting through box-score hype to spotlight college prospects who elevated their draft stock against top-tier competition and those who took a hit.
**NOTE** This does not include the game on Monday between Florida State and SMU.
Tuesday Morning Heat Check: Week 1 NFL Draft Stock Risers & Fallers
Stock Risers (The Heat Check)
1. Deuce Alexander, WR — Mississippi
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Game/Opponent: vs. Louisville
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 5 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD (7 TGT)
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The Film Take: Alexander was not a player I had on my radar entering the season. I was apparently alone in that. But that is a story for another day. Alexander was heavily hyped entering the season, and now I see why. He has legit low 4.3 speed. Alexander showed off his great hands. He then showed off his Ferrari-esque acceleration, taking a short 15-yard crosser and then blowing by the Cardinal defenders.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Unranked (on my board) ➔ Firmly into Day 2
2. Trinidad Chambliss, QB — Mississippi
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Game/Opponent: vs. Louisville
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 21/36, 336 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT; 9 ATT, 60 YDS, 1 TD
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The Film Take: Chambliss delivered in the clutch when his team needed him the most. 261 passing yards and 3 TDs in the second half. This followed a first half with only 75 yards and a pick. Chambliss has plus arm strength, accuracy, and mobility.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Early Day 3 ➔ Day 2
3. Jordan Ross, EDGE — LSU
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Game/Opponent: Clemson
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 4 TCK (2 solo), 2 TFL, 1 SCK, 1 INT returned for 31-yd TD
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The Film Take: Ross bullied the Clemson offensive tackles. He showed open-space athleticism with an interception in zone coverage. Ross has a quick burst and nice bend around the edge.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Day 3 ➔ Day 2
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Stock Fallers (Under the Microscope)
1. Byrum Brown, QB — Auburn
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Game/Opponent: vs. Baylor
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 26/35, 259 YDS, 0 TD, 3 INT
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The Film Take: This was an inauspicious debut for Byrum Brown against Baylor. Brown struggled with ball placement most of the game. And turned the ball over way too much. Per Game on Paper, Brown had only 92 air yards on 30 attempts. He was also sacked five times.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Overall Late Day 3 ➔ UDFA
2. Evan Stewart, WR — Oregon
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Game/Opponent: Boise State
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 8 REC, 84 YDS
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The Film Take: Stewart had a solid receiving game against the Broncos. However, he muffed two punts in the game. One of which gave Boise State a short field for a score.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Day 3 ➔ later in Day 3
3. Caden Durham, RB — LSU
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Game/Opponent: Clemson
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 3 ATT, 3 YDS
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The Film Take: Durham appears to be buried on the depth chart behind Wisconsin transfer Dilin Jones and UCF transfer Stacy Gage. He even had fewer carries than 3rd-string QB (Elon transfer) Landen Clark. Will this change as the season progresses? It is something to monitor for sure. Because I had high hopes for Durham’s development.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Early Day 3 ➔ UDFA or Transfer Portal
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Other Notable Prospect Performances During Week 1
These are from games that I did not focus on. Just noteworthy.
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WR K.J. Duff, Rutgers (vs. UMASS) — 9 REC, 194 YDS, 3 TD
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QB Gio Lopez, Wake Forest (vs. Akron) — 21/32, 350 YDS, 3 TD; 9 CAR, 39 YDS
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RB Darius Taylor, Minnesota (vs. EIU) — 14 ATT, 56 YDS, 3 TD; 3 REC, 31 YDS
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WR Isaiah Sategna III, Oklahoma (vs. UTEP) — 4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD; 2 PR, 15 YDS
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QB Jayden Maiava, USC (vs. Fresno State) — 23/25, 349 YDS, 3 TD
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S Kennedy Urlacher, USC (vs. Fresno State) — 3 TCK (3 solo), 2 SCK, 1 FF
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QB Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) (vs. Stanford) — 27/30, 401 YDS, 5 TD
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LB Matt Rose, Stanford (vs. Miami FL) — 12 TCK (6 solo)
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EDGE Yhonzae Pierre, Alabama (vs. ECU) — 3 TCK, 1 SCK, 1 INT (27-yd TD)
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QB Josh Hoover, Indiana (vs. North Texas) — 13/16, 231 YDS, 4 TD
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WR Charlie Becker, Indiana (vs. North Texas) — 4 REC, 64 YDS, 2 TD (6 TGT)
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RB Cam Cook, West Virginia (vs. Coastal Carolina) — 30 ATT, 142 YDS, 2 TD; 2 REC, 11 YDS
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QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (vs. Kent State) — 19/23, 270 YDS, 3 TD
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QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State (vs. Ball State) — 21/25, 320 YDS, 3 TD
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WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (vs. Ball State) — 8 REC, 151 YDS, 2 TD (9 TGT)
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WR Devin McCuin, Ohio State (vs. Ball State) — 6 REC, 74 YDS (7 TGT)
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WR Amare Thomas, Houston (vs. Oregon State) — 8 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD (12 TGT)
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LB Tony Rojas, Penn State (vs. Marshall) — 7 TCK (4 solo), 1 SCK, 2 TFL
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LB Caleb Bacon, Penn State (vs. Marshall) — 6 TCK (5 solo), 1 SCK, 3 TFL
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WR Ryan Wingo, Texas (vs. Texas State) — 7 REC, 121 YDS (8 TGT)
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DL Xavier Gilliam, Tennessee (vs. Furman) — 6 TCK (5 solo), 5 TFL, 1 FF
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LB Chris Thompson, Tulsa (vs. Oklahoma State) — 10 TCK (5 solo)
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RB Kamari Moulton, Iowa (vs. NIU) — 11 ATT, 183 YDS
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RB Jadan Baugh, Florida (vs. FAU) — 14 ATT, 160 YDS, 3 TD
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RB Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV (vs. Hawaii) — 20 ATT, 143 YDS, 1 TD
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LB Jacob Manu, Washington (vs. Washington State) — 11 TCK (7 solo), 1 SCK
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QB Demond Williams, Washington (vs. Washington State) — 24/35, 268 YDS, 1 TD; 11 ATT, 45 YDS, 1 TD
The Bottom Line
After focusing on eight games during Week 1, Draft Countdown will scale it back a bit. During Week 2, we will evaluate 6 games and add a total of three risers and three fallers. Or at least a total of six.