Every Saturday gives us answers, but it also creates brand-new questions for the draft cycle. Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Heat Check, where we evaluate the tape from the weekend’s action—cutting through box-score hype to spotlight college prospects who elevated their draft stock against top-tier competition and those who took a hit.
Tuesday Morning Heat Check: Week 3 NFL Draft Stock Risers & Fallers
Stock Risers (The Heat Check)
1. Trinidad Chambliss, QB — Mississippi
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Game/Opponent: vs. LSU
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 33/48, 363 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT; 1 rush TD
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The Film Take: Age (he will be a 25-year-old rookie) is obviously one of the biggest concerns with Chambliss. He is the same age as C.J. Stroud, who is currently playing in his fourth NFL season. But man, he plays with steel balls. Chambliss makes NFL throws all over the field and has the “IT” factor. His game tape says first-round pick. Maybe even a top ten selection. But the age and his height (likely under six feet) may factor into the final grade.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Day 2 ➔ 1st Round
2. Luke Reynolds, TE — Virginia Tech
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Game/Opponent: at Maryland
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 12 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
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The Film Take: Reynolds is quickly emerging as one of the top TE prospects in the class. He has 25 receptions, 247 yards, and four TDs in 3 games. Reynolds is a solid blocker but has emerged as a field stretcher.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Day 3 ➔ Day 2
Stock Fallers (Under the Microscope)
1. LaNorris Sellers, QB — South Carolina
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Game/Opponent: Mississippi State
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 25/40, 282 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 14 att, 52 yards
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The Film Take: Sellers had 4 throws that should have been intercepted and five turnover-worthy plays. His two picks were some of the worst decisions I have seen from a QB this season. Sellers has all the tools but has now had multiple chances to show he can take the next step, and he just can’t. He has at least 9 more games to prove me wrong.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Early Round 1 ➔ Round 2
2. Nyck Harbor, WR — South Carolina
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Game/Opponent: Mississippi State
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Stat Line / Key Metric: 1 reception, 22 yards (4 targets)
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The Film Take: Harbor was a complete non-factor. This follows a game where he dropped 3 balls. Harbor is another player we have been waiting 3 years to take the next step and just hasn’t. His speed will get him drafted. But an NFL team will need its WR coach to sell Harbor as a player worth developing. Because his hands, route-running, and general basics of the position have never developed at South Carolina.
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Draft Projection Impact:
Moving from: Early Day 2 ➔ Late Day 2
The Bottom Line
After focusing on six games in Week 3, we will evaluate another 6 games in Week 4 and add another group of risers and fallers.