The NFL draft always delivers its fair share of shocking moments. 12 months ago, Shedeur Sanders, a consensus first-round pick at the very minimum, shockingly slid all the way down to the fifth round and number 144 overall. The year before, Roger Goodell walked to the podium in Detroit and read the Atlanta Falcons card: Michael Penix Jr., pick eight, the same franchise that had handed Kirk Cousins $180 million weeks earlier. And back in 2023, Houston’s front office pulled off the kind of draft weekend that teams spend decades trying to replicate: C.J. Stroud at No. 2, a trade up to steal Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3, two franchise-altering picks on back-to-back selections.
Now it’s 2026, and the biggest talking point is the weak quarterback class in comparison to recent years. 2024 saw a record six quarterbacks selected in the first round. This year, there will likely only be one. But who are the gunslingers looking to make the step up to the NFL this year? And crucially, where will they end up plying their trade? Let’s take a look.
Fernando Mendoza, Raiders (Pick 1)
Fernando Mendoza was a two-star recruit when he headed to California in 2022. Then he entered the transfer portal on Christmas Eve 2024. Georgia wanted him. Miami pushed hard to flip him. He chose Indiana—partly to play alongside his brother Alberto, partly because Curt Cignetti told him he’d become the best Fernando Mendoza possible. Little did he know, he’d also become the best quarterback in the country.
What followed was one of the great single-season arcs in college football history: 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, six interceptions, a Heisman Trophy, and a game-winning rush in the National Championship against Miami. Now he sits at the top of this draft—unanimous No. 1 across every top media outlet and betting platform.
The latest Bovada NFL futures odds make him a whopping -17500 frontrunner to be selected first overall by Las Vegas. To put that into perspective, a punter would have to put down $175 just to gain $1 in winnings. In layman’s terms, the Raiders are taking him; make no mistake about it.
But the Raiders and No. 1 overall picks do share an uncomfortable history: JaMarcus Russell, 2007, $68 million guaranteed, one of the most complete developmental disasters the league has ever produced. That ghost is real, and it follows every Raiders’ war room into draft night.
But here’s why Mendoza feels different: Russell had every physical attribute and none of the infrastructure. Mendoza has both the physical attributes and the backstory that forge durability under pressure. You don’t go from two-star recruit to national champion without developing a kind of internal compass that no five-star ever needed to find. Klint Kubiak was hired to build an offense around this player specifically, and Tom Brady’s fingerprints are all over the process. It’s surely a recipe for success.
Mendoza in the Silver & Black may be a scarier sight than we think 🤨 pic.twitter.com/M24Zn7DdzE
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) January 24, 2026
Ty Simpson, Cardinals (Pick 34)
Fifteen career starts. Fifteen. That’s the number following Ty Simpson everywhere right now, and no amount of Alabama pedigree makes it disappear entirely.
The former Crimson Tide star spent three years learning behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe in Tuscaloosa, watching, absorbing a pro-style system that demands precision and punishes indecision. When he finally started in 2025—3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, five interceptions, CFP quarterfinals—he looked like exactly what Bama quarterbacks are supposed to look like. His clean-pocket PFF grade ranked seventh among all draft-eligible quarterbacks. His big-time throw percentage was tenth. The physical tools aren’t in question.
The résumé, however, is. Is Arizona the right fit for Simpson’s development? One season of starting evidence is a thin foundation for a franchise investment. But thin foundations and patience aren’t mutually exclusive—and Arizona, with pick 34 and a young roster still being assembled, can afford to wait.
The Cardinals aren’t a quarterback away from competing; they’re two or three years from that conversation. That’s exactly what a prospect with elite tools and limited reps needs. Most rebuilding teams don’t get to be patient. Arizona does.
Garrett Nussmeier, Jets (Pick 44)
His father, Doug, is in Saints’ offensive coordinator meetings every week. Garrett Nussmeier grew up in film rooms before he ever threw a spiral on a real field. That football IQ isn’t a scouting buzzword, but it does make his 2025 harder to explain.
Nussmeier returned to LSU as a near-certain first-rounder after a 2024 season where he led the SEC in completions, throwing for 4,052 yards, and leaving experts genuinely debating whether he might go top-15. Then came the collapse: 1,927 yards, three-game losing streak, a stock in genuine freefall. You don’t spend three years building a draft grade and watch it crater without consequences.
Then the Senior Bowl happened. Nussmeier walked in and reminded everyone why they’d been excited in the first place—quick release, middle-field touch, protection command that comes from watching offensive coordinators work a whiteboard your entire life. Bucky Brooks still has him No. 3 in this class. The talent didn’t disappear. The 2025 season was a bad year on a bad roster, and PFF’s underlying metrics—turnover-worthy play rate at 3.0%; elite pocket efficiency—suggest a player whose floor is higher than that year made him look.
Jets fans have every right to be nervous. Their miserable record of drafting quarterbacks reads as follows: Sam Darnold (before he was good), Zach Wilson, Jordan Travis (who?). However, this year, they are poised and ready to ignite the rebuild, with four selections set across the first two rounds. Expect to see Nussmeier selected with the fourth of those, at 44 overall.
He will likely sit behind new addition Geno Smith in Year 1. He takes over in year 2. Maybe. But the fit, at least, makes structural sense.