The NFL Draft has rarely had a single nailed on favorite for first pick quite like this year, in Fernando Mendoza. His average odds of -20000 at major US sportsbooks put the 2025 Heismann Trophy winner at around 99% likely to be the first draft pick. But, who is in the running for second or third pick when the NFL teams assemble in Pittsburgh on April 23? Why is Mendoza such a lock, and what does that say about the NFL going into 2026?
Several factors have made Mendoza a near cert, including leaked insider information from the number 1 draft pick holder the Las Vegas Raiders, a lack of other top quality QB options in the years’ draft and his incredible unbeaten and title-winning season with Indiana in 2025. Beyond Mendoza though, defensive players are expected to dominate the priority picks. However, the market is uncertain and odds are currently varied between ‘books.
Fernando Mendoza is the Early Lock for the No.1 Pick
The Las Vegas Raiders hold the number one pick this season, and are widely expected to spend it on a rookie quarterback. 21 of the last 28 selections have been quarterbacks
There’s only one true star option in the position in this year’s draft – and that is Mendoza. No-one even comes close in terms of the betting odds currently.
The Indiana QB went 16-0 while leading the Hoosiers to a national college football championship. A feat that has never been achieved before. In the process he also won the Heismann Trophy.
Mendoza is an accurate thrower, who has heaps of toughness alongside his physical size. He’s a tough QB to sack and he’s even difficult to bring down on the run, as he showed in the National Championship game when he drove 12 yard sprawling touchdown with just 10 minutes left of the game.
Although there has been some discussion over whether he really is that good, it looks almost dead certain that Mendoza will be playing for the Raiders as the number one draft pick next season.
Second and Third Picks are Much Wider Open
Behind Mendoza, the markets are much less certain as to who will be second, third and fourth pick. Most sportsbooks stop offering bets after the fifth pick, but some offer wider markets such as which position each team will pick first. Top rated candidates include:
- Rueben Bain Jr. – Miami – Edge rusher
- Jeremiyah Love – Notre Dame – Running back
- Sonny Styles – Ohio State – Linebacker
- Arvell Reese – Clemson – Linebacker/Edge
- David Bailey – Stanford – Edge rusher
Out of those, the sportsbooks’ current favorite is Arvell Reese, who sits at around -150 to -240 for second pick. David Bailey is close behind at around +300. Jeremiyah Love is a highly rated running back but his position isn’t high on many teams’ priority list this year so his chances of being second or third pick are lower.
Styles, Reese, Bailey and Bain Jr. are all offered as picks by most ‘books for the number 1 spot. But they are all priced at +8000 or more. This reflects the huge likelihood that the Raiders will pick a QB and that Mendoza is the only likely option.
The only other QB in the top betting odds at all is Alabama’s Ty Simpson, but his resume is quite far off Mendoza’s at this point. Which is reflected in his +10000 odds on the moneyline.
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What the Odds Reveal About the 2026 Draft
Most of the leading candidates for top first round draft picks after Mendoza are defensive players. Simpson is actually longer odds for second and third pick at around +10000 to as high as +12500. Which shows few teams are valuing quarterback picks this year.
Two previously highly rated prospects in Dante Moore and Trinidad Chambliss, who many expected to be contending in the top spots, decided to take another year in college, which left Mendoza as the clear number one option for the Raiders.
The Arizona Cardinals are third pick, and they are looking for a QB after releasing Kyler Murray. But with the field looking light this year most analysts don’t see them going for the position as their first pick.
Last year’s Super Bowl was contested by two defensively dominant teams, and the rest of the league is now looking to shore up their backlines. This is reflected in the high odds on Arvell Reese, a versatile defensive player from Ohio State, and Sonny Styles, a lineacker with safety experience and strong coverage stats, being second or third round picks.
Meanwhile, offensive skill players like Jeremiyah Love are less valued in the draft. Even with elite production, running backs have rarely featured in the first three selections in recent NFL drafts. Similarly, the absence of strong quarterback alternatives – despite names like Ty Simpson – has pushed teams with top first round picks towards more defensive options over settling for more middling talents at QB.
But if one player defines the draft this year it is likely to be Mendoza. If he turns around the struggling Raiders he could become the new franchise player for many seasons to come. While full of defensive talent, no other player in the early betting for the top spots comes close that same level of potential impact.
Overall, 2026 draft is one of contrasting pictures – quarterbacks remain king and can shape an entire draft, when top class prospects are available, so other teams are prioritising defensive stability. Mendoza’s near guaranteed status at number one pick says as much about the league as his undoubted skills.
However, with other teams ramping up their defensive capabilities, possibly built to counter the recent crop of franchise quarterbacks from the past few years, will Mendoza continue to shine at the highest level? Certainly, Las Vegas Raiders fans will be hoping he will.